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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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A customized vehicle would be superior for robotaxis, but existing S3XY models will still be adequate for robotaxi and they're still worth far more as robotaxis than private cars. Why would they wait for the custom AEV to ramp up manufacturing instead of just rolling out Tesla Network as soon as possible? Elon's comments about turning your vehicle into a robotaxi overnight by flipping a bit indicate that this is the plan.

I agree.

I think an LFP battery is the main requirement for robotaxi and a low price.

Model 3, Model Y and the new compact model are well suited.

Model S/X are suited to a more up market service.

If the new compact model has the ability to remove the steering wheel and is low cost, with a long life LFP battery, that is a lot of boxes ticked.
 
Thanks for sharing. It doesn’t seem to have the beefy flared fenders of the Model S Plaid. Maybe it’s just the photo.
To my eyes the new Model X looks externally identical besides some minor cosmetic differences. Here is another angle.
plaidX2.jpg
 
I think MB should focus his shorting efforts on the individual companies ARK picks vs the entire ETF. As long as ARK has credibility, they have first mover advantage and will most likely not lose money. They bought nano at 4 dollars, even with the hype plus crash they are still up.
He's very savvy in regards to calling what is incorrectly priced. He does seem to not be so great in the perfect implementation of a very savvy strategy.
 
I agree.

I think an LFP battery is the main requirement for robotaxi and a low price.

Model 3, Model Y and the new compact model are well suited.

Model S/X are suited to a more up market service.

If the new compact model has the ability to remove the steering wheel and is low cost, with a long life LFP battery, that is a lot of boxes ticked.
I think we're really way ahead of things if we are guessing battery chemistry and a service offering that is more than 3 years away. Battery costs will be falling. Also not sure why battery capacity should be low in a robotaxi instead of high. I'd want that returning to the depot as few a number of hours as possible.

What do shorts on Uber look like? Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent is the one concern there. If the public beta looks at all useful I'd be wishing I had some extra dollars to short Uber. Just on general principle.
 
Don't get me wrong. I like the reference.
But "steering" a sailboat under sail (you did mean under sail?) is the extreme of steering, Changes in every nautical condition while attempting to stay on course for days not only 1D 2D 3D...and put as many other "D"s as you like for the vagaries of the sea AND air... Steering a sailboat requires an even greater "feel" than piloting an aircraft in all but the extreme cases because of how slowly it all plays out, and how deceiving the sea can be.
I am not saying steering a sailboat is more important than steering an aircraft, just that the feel required to steer a sailboat at the highest level is much more of a need in order to achieve the highest level of performance.
The only possibility of my getting you wrong...is that I believe you reinforced everything I said: it is the bane of every skipper to have a dead, i.e., "feelless" helm. That is why I queried the sensitivity of a drive-by-wire system.
 
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Hey, guys. I'm new here.

I bought TSLA pre-SP500 inclusion at average price of under $400. I sold at $880ish and then rebought at $600.

With the marketcap approaching close to $1 trillion, I'm starting to wonder if all of the growth from the automotive side has been priced in already and if I'm better off investing in something else. Yes, I'm well aware of the potential of robotaxis, but I'm a FSD-bear and don't think it's ever happening.

If we're valuing Tesla solely as a car company and assuming they can manufacture 20 million cars annually, would their current valuation be justified? I'd imagine most of the cars sold then would be a cheaper $25K model with lower margins, so my initial instinct is no.

I have to admit that getting called a moron by friends and people online for investing in TSLA has been making me second-guess my investment choice. Hoping that some of you can bring a different opinion on the matter.
 
That would be my guess. He shorted it about New Years or so and then it fell a few hundred and he could get out with a big profit and then short Ark which looks to me to be a much better short. I'd love to hear an interview where he gave his insight on valuation of Tesla.
You know I might be reading what he is saying wrong. He did not make multiple millions on his put options. He is most likely saying his few hundred thousand bet turned into a few hundred million bet because the media is stupid.
 
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Honestly I would be surprised if the average taxi driver/uber put more than 200 miles on their car in a day, Which will most likely be in urban slow crawl than anything else. I doubt a current LFP SR+ would need charging in a day
It depends on the city where they are driving. A single roundtrip from some Houston’s suburbs to the airport can be more than 100 miles. I know some Uber drivers that put close to 10,000 miles on their cars during their busiest months.
 
I know you're being sarcastic, but I actually read through many of them, and they don't seem to do any kind of analysis that answers my questions.

Uh, then you haven't read very much of this thread or anywhere else on the forum, have you?

Good luck with your investing, but I'd buy and hold as much TSLA as you possibly can if I were you. Even at the current prices. Ignore what your friends are saying, how much do they know about Tesla as a company?
 
I know you're being sarcastic, but I actually read through many of them, and they don't seem to do any kind of analysis that answers my questions.
Whichever point of view you are trying to support, you can find posts that fit.
(And if not, check the previous years')
(And if that fails, use site:teslamotorsclub.com and your key words on google)
 
I know you're being sarcastic, but I actually read through many of them, and they don't seem to do any kind of analysis that answers my questions.
Well if you sold at $880 and rebought at $600 then you were either very very lucky with your timing. Twice. Or you are so much smarter than us all that you don't need our expertise.

You really don't want to go for a third or even fourth try though. Just hold.
 
Hey, guys. I'm new here.

I bought TSLA pre-SP500 inclusion at average price of under $400. I sold at $880ish and then rebought at $600.

With the marketcap approaching close to $1 trillion, I'm starting to wonder if all of the growth from the automotive side has been priced in already and if I'm better off investing in something else. Yes, I'm well aware of the potential of robotaxis, but I'm a FSD-bear and don't think it's ever happening.

If we're valuing Tesla solely as a car company and assuming they can manufacture 20 million cars annually, would their current valuation be justified? I'd imagine most of the cars sold then would be a cheaper $25K model with lower margins, so my initial instinct is no.

I have to admit that getting called a moron by friends and people online for investing in TSLA has been making me second-guess my investment choice. Hoping that some of you can bring a different opinion on the matter.
Stay the course.

Tesla will be the most valuable company by market share you will see in your lifetime (unless you're 5). You're invested in TSLA for everything you know and believe about it (probably worth about $3T by 2030), those things you don't believe about it ($?, but even ok if $0), and everything you don't know about yet (at least another $3T - a month ago know one knew that humanoid robots were coming as a stocking stuffer in the next couple years - something like that will happen every few years, but we just don't know what.)

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the adoption of sustainable energy - but really their whole existence is defined by acceleration. Never a constant speed, always an increasing rate of change forward.

If we all thought TSLA was done, none of us would be here.

Not an advice. You'll need to go back a couple hundred thousand posts to get the meaning behind this.
 
You know I might be reading what he is saying wrong. He did not make multiple millions on his put options. He is most likely saying his few hundred thousand bet turned into a few hundred million bet because the media is stupid.

No - he's saying, after the fact, that the media misinterpreted his position by reporting the size of the trade at the full exercise value of the options, instead of what he actually paid. Which was obvious to us here at the time. He's since deleted his September 2020 posts where he initially posted his short thesis. I don't believe his views merit further discussion here.