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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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We have bounced off $800 twice this week. My bet is today $800 will hold. I dont believe in technical trading BUT often it takes 3 times to get over these psychological thresholds. I remember when we moved past $1,000 before the stock split, we bounced back off it about a dozen times

On to longer timelines. I have a very simple prediction on TSLA share price which ties in to those some other people have made on YouTube etc. but much simpler.

By end of 2030....
- If Tesla ramps up car production to 10m per year, we can expect the share price to go up $1 per day until then ($1bn value added per day) to reach $3,400 by 2030
- If Tesla also solves FSD, share price will go up $2 per day to reach $6,800 by 2030 (share price will double within a month of FSD being rolled out)
- If Tesla produces so many batteries, they can also revolutionize the energy sector, share price will go up by $3 per day to reach $10,200 by 2030

This is going to be my mantra until there is some hard evidence suggesting otherwise
What the birthday cake am I going to do with all that money?!
 
What the birthday cake am I going to do with all that money?!
Buy a mountain that's also an island !
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Which solar stocks do you like?
I hold SolarEdge, Enphase, SunPower, Hannon Armstrong, and Maxeon. I wouldn't assert that these are the best names in solar, but they have worked well for me.

With LNG prices soaring well past $30/mmBtu as Europe and Asia try to outbid each other in advance of a cold winter, it's pretty darn clear that all continents need to step up wind, solar and battery installations. Tesla Energy should be able to tap into this (if only they had more battery cells). If Tesla's big battery in Texas can help avert a repeat ERCOT disaster this winter, that would help solidify the case for more battery systems.
 
I've already done this. I HATE SDG&E with an unbridled passion.
99.8% self-sufficient with solar+powerwalls over the past 3 years.

That last .2% is a bear, however. Once you get beyond 2 days of grey, it's hard to get the powerwalls charged up enough.
I thought you lived in California?
 
@The Accountant @Artful Dodger @Curt Renz @Papafox

I’m just going to fall right on my sword — I’ve been name dropping. I’ve been referring folks to TMC and specifically telling them to check you guys out.

I just drove from Southern California to New Orleans to Tuscaloosa Alabama and now I’m driving home. I’ve been telling folks about you guys all across America. I’m hoping forgiveness is easier than permission.

Oddly, I ran into a fellow Southern California TMC’er at a Supercharger in Meridian Mississippi. We maybe growing exponentially, but it’s still a small world. A shout to Mace; very cool plaid Model S.
 

So yeah Ford......so much for that huge demand you're seeing :rolleyes:

The longer the "chip shortage" excuses go on, the more it's apparent it's a demand problem for legacy auto.

Loans with higher interest rates benefit Ford. Their finance arm is generating a third of their profits. Last year it was almost half.

“Ford is relying on its finance unit to help fund multibillion-dollar outlays on electric and self-driving cars while it simultaneously racks up $11 billion in charges from a restructuring that could take years.”
 
Loans with higher interest rates benefit Ford. Their finance arm is generating a third of their profits. Last year it was almost half.

“Ford is relying on its finance unit to help fund multibillion-dollar outlays on electric and self-driving cars while it simultaneously racks up $11 billion in charges from a restructuring that could take years.”
That also increases risk. Those loans will be under water compared to the value of the vehicle for far longer than a shorter term loan. If what many think is true regarding the imminent decrease in used ICE vehicle value, that's another problem. Especially if we wind up in a recession.
 
Loans with higher interest rates benefit Ford. Their finance arm is generating a third of their profits. Last year it was almost half.

“Ford is relying on its finance unit to help fund multibillion-dollar outlays on electric and self-driving cars while it simultaneously racks up $11 billion in charges from a restructuring that could take years.”

Sorry but I don't believe that for a second. If Ford was really seeing high demand, they could up their interest rates on loans for consumers with a credit score. Do you really expect Ford to come out and say we're doing this because we don't have enough demand for a good majority of our lineup?

I don't want to take the thread off course so I won't respond on the topic after this one. Everyone's welcome to take the Ford loans article how they want. To me, combined with other aspects of their chip shortage excuse, I think it's soft demand.
 
You speak of the "I don't want a Tesla" people as if they are a large part of the market. And you are making the mistake of dividing the market into EV's and ICE when, in fact, most buyers who are not already fully committed to EVs or strongly biased against all EV's, are willing to cross shop EVs and ICE to see which serves their needs and offers the most value. Even high-end car buyers like to get value for their dollars. The part of the market that likes EV's but doesn't want a Tesla is very small and getting smaller each month. While Tesla haters and TSLAQ types will always exist in small numbers, those numbers are shrinking every month as TSLAQ loses influence and regular folks start to catch on and understand how they have been lied to.

iPace sold like gang-busters (hardly) when people still thought Tesla would fail and the legacy OEM's were the only ones that knew how to build cars. People are starting to get it now. The lies about Tesla are simply not credible anymore to a significant portion of new car buyers.

Porsche, Mercedes and Lucid can have all of the "I don't want a Tesla" market and still go bankrupt. This part of the market is insignificant because ICE are still 96% of the market. The "I don't want a Tesla" people are only visible to those who are too close to their subject matter and, in terms of the size of the overall auto market, are truly insignificant. Perspective matters.
I worked with a guy in 2019 who - despite my unceasing and probably annoying talk about my Model 3 and the growth of my TSLA shares - bought the Audi e-tron because "I don't want to pay for connectivity [monthly]". Really?? That's $10 / month on a CA$90 K car. Like, a 0.12% premium per year. "Rip off!!"

I ended that contract a long time ago, so I haven't talked to him since. I keep thinking about him and wondering if his wife - who liked road trips - is still angry with him for being so obstinate against Tesla! He was a fellow technology consultant and probably didn't want to follow in anybody's footsteps. Stubborn.

(Hmm, must give G. a shout to see how he's doing and how much he's enjoyed his Audi...)
 
To be fair, I'm sure he did in fact interview every single professional in Silicon Valley, as well as everyone who works at Tesla
Turn the question around: Does anyone on this Thread think FSD 10.2 is ready to do handle the driving in their own home city. Meaning the chance of a driver intervention is near zero? My response for myself is "no".
 
Sorry but I don't believe that for a second. If Ford was really seeing high demand, they could up their interest rates on loans for consumers with a credit score. Do you really expect Ford to come out and say we're doing this because we don't have enough demand for a good majority of our lineup?

I don't want to take the thread off course so I won't respond on the topic after this one. Everyone's welcome to take the Ford loans article how they want. To me, combined with other aspects of their chip shortage excuse, I think it's soft demand.
Just the other day I thought something similar to this when I saw a pickup truck commercial for Ford or Chevy, I forget yet doesnt matter, the point was why in the world when these are having a hard time getting chips to finish making these vehicles they are offering 0% financing?
 
I worked with a guy in 2019 who - despite my unceasing and probably annoying talk about my Model 3 and the growth of my TSLA shares - bought the Audi e-tron because "I don't want to pay for connectivity [monthly]". Really?? That's $10 / month on a CA$90 K car. Like, a 0.12% premium per year. "Rip off!!"

I ended that contract a long time ago, so I haven't talked to him since. I keep thinking about him and wondering if his wife - who liked road trips - is still angry with him for being so obstinate against Tesla! He was a fellow technology consultant and probably didn't want to follow in anybody's footsteps. Stubborn.

(Hmm, must give G. a shout to see how he's doing and how much he's enjoyed his Audi...)
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Turn the question around: Does anyone on this Thread think FSD 10.2 is ready to do handle the driving in their own home city. Meaning the chance of a driver intervention is near zero? My response for myself is "no".

If FSD 10.2 was geofenced like Waymo is, I think it would be ready.

Tesla could, if they wanted to, compile a daily map of construction zones and difficult driving situations every time a Tesla vehicle passes by one, and geofence FSD away from those situations.

We know Waymo is doing it, because in that imfamous video where the vehicle decided to stop in the middle of the road over a cone, the backup driver causally states "I don't know why this construction zone wasn't taken off the map." And the rider confirmed in the Waymo thread here that Waymo actively geofences their vehicles out of construction zones: Waymo

But Tesla doesn't geofence their vehicles away from difficult situations because the intent is to learn how to handle (with a human for safety) those edge cases for the future, instead of driving completely autonomously in a geofenced bubble today.
 
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