Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FS_FRA]

Whoa, too far. You know Germans can't take a joke!

A German joke is not a laughing matter!

 

[AperiodicCoder]

You seem to keep rudely putting words in my mouth. This all started because you said you didn't understand how the fsd beta could be considered dangerous, and I was just pointing out that it drives erratically which could be considered dangerous. You certainly don't have to agree, and that's fine, but you don't have to consistently misrepresent what I am saying.

I just want to support your side of this conversation. Speaking from someone who watched plenty of FSD Beta videos, I wasn't prepared for exactly how erratic the vehicle actually behaves. Your point seems to have whooshed over P3D in this case, but it jives exactly with my experience testing the beta.

To add some investment-related points to this: I think the safety score is a great way to roll out the beta. It ensures that the earliest testers are going to, on average, be aware and able to follow a specific set of rules. This, and the inherent desire not to crash your own vehicle, will hopefully stave off any FSD accidents for a good long while. This reflects positively on Tesla's emphasis of safety.

 

[RMan]

Absolutely. I forget some of the important things I learned back then.

Forgot to add that there are many Teslas moving north on I5
View attachment 722988

Anecdotally, driving from Portland to Sacramento yesterday we counted 37 of these. Mostly white Y’s, but a number of refreshed X’s.

 

[dl003]

I know many don't believe in TA, but this to me is super encouraging. We broke back into the trendline that was broken in May. Today, the daily candle shows the stock refused to break below it. The day (week) is still young, though.

 

[c041v]

Yup !!
I'm sure you're referring to this guy here.
Roth Capital Partner is a Market Maker for Tesla options.
He does not have the conviction to give Tesla a Sell Rating but throws out the ridiculous price target of $150 to provide the voice for downward pressure (a la Gordon and Toilet Boy).

View attachment 723209

Maybe it's me, but this looks more like a hostage/ransom request than a take on a Share price.

 

[SunCatcher]

Someone somewhere is thinking about poetry.

Umm, clearly that would be you. Thanks a lot buddy. You and your arch nemesis who lives on the mountain and speaks of Zen. You 2 have more in common than you think.
(I kid...)
/s
See that TSLA chart? (Mostly goes up) Poetry in motion. That's what that is.

 

[larmor]

I know many don't believe in TA, but this to me is super encouraging. We broke back into the trendline that was broken in May. Today, the daily candle shows the stock refused to break below it. The day (week) is still young, though.

View attachment 723251

Can you superimpose P/E on this graph?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yup !!
I'm sure you're referring to this guy here.

View attachment 723209

RBF. Definately.

 

[Opus BC fan]

We have a long steep uphill climb ahead of us. This is the pause that refreshes before the epic journey continues...

 

[dl003]

Can you superimpose P/E on this graph?

Like this? The blue line that seems out of place is PE ratio.

 

[SunCatcher]

We have a long steep uphill climb ahead of us. This is the pause that refreshes before the epic journey continues...

Base Camp 1. We're not sleeping. Just resting our eyes.

 

[winfield100]

Final daily volume numbers are out from NASDAQ, and today saw HUGE volume during the After-hrs session with almost no change in the share price: (top daily scores ranked by After-hrs volume percent of Daily volume)

View attachment 723166

As you can see (highlighted in YELLOW above), today's After-hrs session ranked #15 all-time for TSLA at 10.05% of all today's volume traded during the AFter-hrs session (this was >2.2M shares). Other daily sessions with higher % After-hrs volume were "Event" days like Earnings Call, or the 5:1 Stock Split announcement (2020-08-11)

Again, most facinating that the SP did not change appreciably After-hrs, indicating that these were preplanned sales (either Options executing or MMs balancing w. other large funds ie: short covering).

So then, what EXACTLY was today's BIG EVENT? Did a big short capitulate? Haha, we'll likely never know in time to take advantage of the change, what with quarterly filings being due 45 DAYS after the end of the Quarter. If this WAS a large fund buying to cover, we won't see it in the SEC Filings until about Feb 15, 2022. Lol, transparency... its more like a smoke screen to cover a deliberate withdrawal.

And what does this all mean for tomorrow? More buying interest headed into Earnings, of course!

Cheers!

@Artful Dodger
my brain is hurting a bit
lines 4&5 _both_ say 2020/9/18
but have wildly different volume numbers.
i’ve been going over my numbers i download from nasdaq and some are the same as yours, but some differ occasionally subtly.
i’m suspicious of my data suddenly.
plus where do you get both the 4pm EDGAR and 10pm nasdaq final please
i’m wondering if there would be a divergence of graphs if i separated the 2 out and did a few visuals

i also noticed the nasdaq i download from only goes back exactly 10 years, which they define as “maximum” although my data goes a few more years further back.

any help please
thanks

 

[AlMc]

Interesting. But I'd say the time for that method is over, because the "huge price" is not huge enough.

The farthest OTM calls you can sell now are Jan 2024 1600c for $90. I could live for a year on the proceeds from selling 5 of those ($45k). But by Jan 2024, I expect the share price to be at least double the strike price, so I would miss out on gains of at least $1600 x 500 shares = $800,000. No thanks.

Tesla's growth is starting up the steep part of the S-curve now, and TSLA is likely to reflect it.

Peter,
In your scenario you would just roll the Leaps up and out and probably collect extra premium for doing so. Again, NOT investment advice. All option systems/investment systems work until they don't.

 

[MXWing]

When we see red, time to buy. Profit takers can give their stuff to me - they are leaving $ on the table.

Surprised I got paid $150 to bet Tesla goes between 900-1000 in Jan while not falling below 750. I think this hits in November assuming no macro shenanigans.

 

[canoemore]

Boy. Quite the obstacle at 870

 

[jw934]

@TeslaLarry has a good point in regards to the Q3 conference call.
With Elon no longer on Quarter calls, perhaps Tesla will host a more traditional financial call where there are more discussion on finance than on technology.
More importantly, Tesla will likely provide financial info in a form that Financial Analysts can sufficiently understand for them to give quick upgrades.

(To note, personally, I prefer to have Elon and Andrej on these calls)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1450442417174368258

 

[lafrisbee]

"Everybody has a plan until the share price doubles"

- Mike Tyson

Poorly Paraphrasing Tyson poorly paraphrasing Moltke the Elder got 12x the number of "likes" as my post. Dang.

EDIT: I did not do my analysis of the technicals correctly..
What I did was see that I had a red circle with a "3" in the middle of it and thought that my "2x" post must have only gotten 3 responses... And most of you know that isn't the correct way to get it.
So "never mind."

 

[henchman24]

The positive of not having Elon on is that he won't rage on supply chains.

 

[Fobble]

Somethings gone wrong with my monitor. The SP was displaying in a weird, reddish color.

Should I replace the monitor?

Are you sure it's not your eyes?

 

[RichardL]

The positive of not having Elon on is that he won't rage on supply chains.

But how will I know which is more difficult - prototyping or manufacturing?