Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jkirkwood001]

Benzinga - headline only - 14 minutes ago: Tesla Urges Indian PM Modi's Office To Slash Import Taxes On EVs; Says Co Has Requested Meeting Between Modi, CEO Elon Musk

India is a relatively poor country, honestly (I backpacked there 5 months in 2014), so I don't think reducing tax on import vehicles would be in Indians overall interest.

Instead, Elon should be pushing for India to facilitate Tesla building a local factory and selling its EVs without those high import duties. It's a huge market, especially once Tesla releases its lower-cost model (and it could seriously dent GHG emissions from millions of auto-rikshaws if Tesla developed a ATV/Tuk-tuk! see below).

A local factory would provide India with valuable high tech jobs and support local suppliers. Otherwise, I think reducing the import tax is a simply recipe for enabling scarse Indian capital to leave the country. Until that happens, Tesla should take the hit while building out a sales network.

C'mon Elon, "do the right thing".

 

[jbcarioca]

I do still believe that Tesla should require all people that are accepted into the Beta to watch a safety video and then answer questions related to the video. Simply reading a disclaimer and checking boxes is to easy for people to skip over. Yeah it may say hey checking the box means you are responsible, but we should want more then just CYA. We want success.

Despite those disagreements from some well-respected people, this is a step that could yield major benefits. There are several training possibilities that could help, especially with the highest performance models. There is precedence for driver training. One easy choice would be to offer discounted insurance rates to people who complete certain training elements. That is often used for boats, aircraft and several classes of road going vehicles. Passenger cars have usually not used such techniques. Were there to be such available for the Plaid S, for example, I'd sign up, as I did years ago from Porsche and Ferrari. Neither of those were mandated, but both made me a much better driver.

Disagree if you like, whoever you are, but then think rationally why common untrained people can drive any passenger car without training. That is regularly killing people today, almost all doing insanely stupid things. Some fo them might not die if they receive training, that will allow them to enjoy their vehicle more in the process. It works for both Porsche and Ferrari!

 

[2daMoon]

Is that a Cybertuk?

 

[JRP3]

India is a relatively poor country, honestly (I backpacked there 5 months in 2014), so I don't think reducing tax on import vehicles would be in Indians overall interest.

Elon has said he wants to test demand before building a factory. I don't think Tesla should be in a hurry to build in India until they are producing the $25K vehicle.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sorry your ATC friends story has massive holes in it. As a professional Pilot for over thirty years, yes there have been accidents and yes Pilots have done stupid crap but the numbers don’t lie. Air travel is extremely safe and since CRM was trained there are countless times when the flying pilot hands over control to the non flying pilot. It’s trained and part of normal flying. I won’t be to harsh on your ATC friend if he admits to the stupid crap controllers do all the time

I think there’s enough stupid around for both sides. One group claiming the other group is more stupid is just a way to pass around the responsibility and rarely an example of accuracy.

 

[thx1139]

Nope.

Tesla only removes FSD from cars they own, mainly ones they sell at auction. The problem is that the flag doesn't always get turned off in the car until an ownership change, with Tesla, takes place, and third-party dealers never take ownership via Tesla like they should.

Cool so what is the issue then?

 

[jbcarioca]

I appreciate that there may be a component of her objection(s) rooted in her technical experience. However that experience is:

1) In the past

2) Based on different technology

3) Lacks any direct insight in the underpinnings of Tesla's solution



Therefore, if she is going to be a governmental appointee with some influence (regulatory or otherwise), she needs to maintain some objectivity about her her deficiencies in her understanding.

However, I see some significant evidence for lack of objectivity:

1) Decision to block folks on twitter based on a TSLAQ block list. That's not a way to hear dissenting views that may inform

2) Classification of any technology based on the race of the person developing it

3) Decision to not answer questions directly relating to her claims of publishing "peer reviewed" papers when there seems to be no record of such in the DOI

4) Significant conflict of interest in benefitting financially from hardware manufactures of equipment used (other than by Tesla) for autonomous driving

5) Previous financial compensation from aunt manufacturers competing with Tesla



So, can she get on the twitterverse and blare opinions on regarding technology with "white men" behind it, and make references to wishing she could assault them like an other idiot out there? Yes. And all the while silencing potential critics and ignoring scrutiny of impropriety in publishing? Yup. It's a free country.

Does that give evidence of her objectivity as person with potential governmental influence in the arena? Not in my book... no matter what other legitimate (if distant) experience she has.

This is my last post on this subject.
Point 1 is not factually known, it is asserted.
Point 3 is also not in evidence. She just did not answer the email.
Point 4 is a trifle silly. She has also gone on the record about the limitations of that technology in driving automations.
Point 5 is simply ridiculous. Elon is helping VAG. Many people here have received compensation from Tesla competitors. Many senior Tesla employees have too. So what?

I will not say more, but I do note that some fo us are looking for excuses. Twitter posts are one thing. The unsubstantiated assertions are another thing entirely. On this Forum we should hold ourselves to a better evidentiary standard that this. It is NOT seeking agreement, just make certain that facts and facts, rather than assertions.

 

[Krugerrand]

Despite those disagreements from some well-respected people, this is a step that could yield major benefits. There are several training possibilities that could help, especially with the highest performance models. There is precedence for driver training. One easy choice would be to offer discounted insurance rates to people who complete certain training elements. That is often used for boats, aircraft and several classes of road going vehicles. Passenger cars have usually not used such techniques. Were there to be such available for the Plaid S, for example, I'd sign up, as I did years ago from Porsche and Ferrari. Neither of those were mandated, but both made me a much better driver.

Disagree if you like, whoever you are, but then think rationally why common untrained people can drive any passenger car without training. That is regularly killing people today, almost all doing insanely stupid things. Some fo them might not die if they receive training, that will allow them to enjoy their vehicle more in the process. It works for both Porsche and Ferrari!

I don’t actually think additional training solves the human stupidity condition.

How is taking a special driving course going to change the behavior of the person I saw yesterday pull halfway out of their parking spot in front me, play on their cellphone, they never saw me, then a few minutes later pass me on the road still texting away on their cellphone? Heck, maybe they’re a better driver than me since they got where they were going in one piece while breaking the law?

You know what changes their behavior? Driving their vehicle into the back of an 18 wheeler and having their face rearranged.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Nope.

Tesla only removes FSD from cars they own, mainly ones they sell at auction. The problem is that the flag doesn't always get turned off in the car until an ownership change, with Tesla, takes place, and third-party dealers never take ownership via Tesla like they should.

Cool so what is the issue then?

My MY with FSD and Acceleration Boost was recently totaled. My insurance company does not want to cover it since it is only a software addon. And as noted above, we know Tesla is unwilling to transfer the license from one car to another. So I am sitting here holding the bag on $12k worth of accessories for my car unless I file a civil case with the person that hit me to try to recoup the loss. This experience has certainly made me strongly consider if I want to pay for FSD on my replacement vehicle or any vehicle in the future until insurance companies catch up and place a value on software or Tesla decides that I am just buying a software license for one seat. Not presently very happy.

 

[jhm]

Elon has said he wants to test demand before building a factory. I don't think Tesla should be in a hurry to build in India until they are producing the $25K vehicle.

Maybe they are in a hurry to build in India so that they can produce a $25k vehicle. I'd expect China to build the first line for the diminutive Tesla, but soon there after they may want to have a second line in another region ready to spin up.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Not sure why, but there seems to be a lot of resistance at $867.

 

[lascavarian]

You can't regulate stupid. The main difference is when a pilot makes a fatal mistake is often for hundreds of people on board. Yet, they still do stupid things.

Thanks for your comments.

It is not about stupid. Lots of that to go around.

Safety can be improved via regulation. Pilots and air safety can benefit from regulation (not to say there is not bad regulation). Pilots are familiar with various levels of certification and the concept of being “checked out” on various hardware.

If I had to guess, commercial pilot certification benefitted from the flaws/weaknesses observed in automobile driver licensing.

I am constantly amazed that it is not a requirement to safety wire the oil drain plug on a car. It is possible to improve reliability and safety. You can’t participate in some race track events without a certain degree of safety wiring but a seized engine or oil slick on public roads - no problemo. One more plus for EVs BTW.

Anyway, earnings soon.

 

[jbcarioca]

I certainly have not been paying attention.
Tesla spent $3.2b in Capex in 2020 and will spend about $6.4b this year. I was projecting $9b for 2022 but if they are not breaking new ground and only completing and expanding existing sites, is it possible for capex in 2022 to be flat at $6.4b?

Yes, possible. Several new production techniques are seriously capital intensive with new technology paint shops, Gigapresses and robots as cases in point. For example, he alluded to a 40% production rise for Fremont. That will cost and cost a very large amount fo capex. Then for Austin, Grüneheide and Shanghai there is substantial room available fro new buildings (i.e. factories) making different products and/or expanding production capacity for existing products. One known case is building 4680's in at four locations, with Shanghai more likely to be augmented by CATL but still requiring massive build, and possibly Tesla produced 4680's too. The there is Cybertruck using entirely new technology for the stainless shell, and unprecedented technological complexity associated with the rest fo the vehicle.

On balance I suggest the factory upgrades and new vehicle introductions will absorb the capital in question. That also ignores Tesla Energy and the massive coming deployments for utility, residential , commercial and Supercharger expansions.

 

[jhm]

Not sure why, but there seems to be a lot of resistance at $867.

It'll mean nothing in 2.5 hours. None of this will mean anything in 2.5 hours. You won't even remember this post in 2.5 hours. Why am I even posting this? 2.5 hours.

 

[Captkerosene]

MOD: If this referred-to post wasn't one of the Deleted-Political ones...it should have been. Too many moles today to have whacked them all.

I'm voting Republican!?

 

[hitchhiker]

Tesla spent $3.2b in Capex in 2020 and will spend about $6.4b this year. I was projecting $9b for 2022 but if they are not breaking new ground and only completing and expanding existing sites, is it possible for capex in 2022 to be flat at $6.4b?

Building new buildings on existing sites cost money too. And both of those sites have lots of available land.

 

[StealthP3D]

That's pretty much the opposite of how the courts handle this though.

Generally they give VERY wide and deep deference to the government agencies to regulate. There's no requirement they "follow science", in fact there's generally no requirement at all other than they can offer ANY reasonable argument for the rule- and the reasonableness standard is VERY broad and pretty easy to satisfy.

Google " Chevron v. National Resources Defense Council" and "Auer v. Robbins," for examples of the US Supreme court being clear agencies are afforded a high level of deference as to their interpretations of their own regulations in any case where congress has not given highly specific directions to them.

A company harmed by arbitrary regulations of a federal agency needs to file a lawsuit. Then the court must weigh the arguments. An agencies standing is definitely afforded some weight but it will not overrule compelling facts and statistics in a court of law.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

It'll mean nothing in 2.5 hours. None of this will mean anything in 2.5 hours. You won't even remember this post in 2.5 hours. Why am I even posting this? 2.5 hours.

I guess that was my point. What exactly are MMs trying to accomplish? It makes no sense to try and cap it at $867.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Is that a Cybertuk?

it looks like a cyber version of Super Chicken's Super Coop

 

[jbcarioca]

Thanks for your comments.

It is not about stupid. Lots of that to go around.

Safety can be improved via regulation. Pilots and air safety can benefit from regulation (not to say there is not bad regulation). Pilots are familiar with various levels of certification and the concept of being “checked out” on various hardware.
...

Here goes a list of known causes and responses:
1. Two airliners crash each other over the Grand Canyon. Result: active IFR rules and monitoring even in VFR, partly through the innovation of Positive Airspace.
2. Roughly half the Learjet 23 crashed soon after introduction. Result: The system of Type Ratings.
3. Two Boing 747s crashing ion the ground at Tenerife. Result: Global standard clearance wording.
There are quit a long list of other cases.

We today are in the midst of questions about automotive automation, driver training and so on.
Nobody knows just how this will end. We do know the debate is happening in the EU, China, the US and probably elsewhere. We can negate it as pilots, manufacturers, and airlines ddi for the three cases I quoted. That will not stop the debate, just as it did not stop for seat belts, anti-lock brakes, or pollution controls. Now it simply is added to the BEV debate, which is not going away either.