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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I’m surprised at how narrow a range it traded in after about 11AM.
This is a good sign. This means that the current SP price is real, and not much on FOMO, pump and dump, and not hyperbolic. In fact, TSLA SP has been in pretty narrow ranges, and up and up in the last few months, which is new :)
 
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Watching this afternoon's earnings reports makes me glad I'm only invested in one stock.
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I'm tired of the self-congratulatory pitter patter (and frankly, it makes me nervous when exuberance replaces analysis) so for something else NOT TSLA but somewhat related, I invite you all to play NAME THAT STOCK

And don't even try to get cute. You would have to know the currency

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Nikola

...oh wait, I'm standing on my head. No wonder the cor was confusing me.


Dan
 
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Given the hardware, software, and services nature of Tesla’s model, it seems appropriate to apply a 6x multiple on $400B in 2027 revenue, which yields about a $2,500 share price. We caution, a lot of things need to go right (including keeping competition at bay) to get there, but that potential is on the table.
 
Why am I still working?

Actually I know. I work until my wife says she has had enough and not to mention our crummy health care system.
Solving the answer of America's awful health care system has multiple solutions as it turns out. For those of us cultists on this forum, we have an option which many don't. I'm seriously looking into this myself. FWIW.

 
Yes, I pointed out that multiple posts ago but you kept responding here anyway.



Again this is inaccurate because all features of all versions of anyting other than FSD have been fully delivered and revenue recognized since fall of 2019.

ONLY FSD matters for this discussion.

The fact you agree different features were promised to different FSD buyers is the entire point I was making, and that Zach confirmed on the call.

So it's weird you keep trying to argue against something you admit is true.





This is not correct.

There was no such thing as "AP" in early 2018.

If she purchased anything she purchased EAP, which was the only thing sold other than FSD from late 2016 through early 2019.

Basic AP was not a "thing" until the early 2019 transition being discussed.




In both cases you both bought EAP, the only thing that was available until early 2019.

100% of the promised features of which had been delivered to customers by fall of 2019.


And you both later added the pre-march-2019 version of FSD. Which promises L4 driving to buyers.





In both cases nothing from FSD had been delivered when you purchased though.

The first FSD-only feature for pre 3/19 buyers came in April 2020. Stop light and stop sign recognition.




The only difference will be for those who bought before 3/19 (who were promised L4 driving- but at time of purchase had been delivered nothing for FSD) and those who purchased after 3/19.... who were promised a list of already delivered things plus 2 other features (stoplight/signs- delivered Apr 2020... and city streets- pending delivery).


That's the point of the entire discussion.

Post 3/19 buyers will have received everything promised once L2 city streets is in wide release.

Tesla will be free to recognize 100% of deferred revenue for all post 3/19 buyers.

They will not be able to for pre 3/19 buyers (including you and your wife apparently) because they still owe you L4 driving.





It literally is though.

See again the actual description of what the customer is purchasing, which is entirely different from pre and post 3/19 buyers.





It doesn't do that in any way, no.



Again you're making up things I never said.

I never claimed Tesla does not intend to deliver the greater promised features they promised to pre 3/19 buyers.

I only claimed, because it's factually true and I literally showed you this in writing from tesla.com, that they promised something more to those buyers.






Early FSD purchasers were promised more.

That isn't an argument. You've been shown the photos that clearly show Tesla doing that.


Tesla is of course free to deliver the "more" to EVERYONE, not just the pre 3/19 buyers.

But from a revenue recognition perspective they don't need to deliver the "more" to the later buyers to recognize fully the FSD revenue.

They DO need to deliver the more to the pre 3/19 buyers to do so. Because it's a promised, undelivered, thing to them (but was never promised to the later buyers).


This is exactly what Zach told us on the call-- that recognition is dependent on what was promised when you bought it

if you bought Pre 3/19 you were promised things the post 3/19 buyers were not.



I'd for a third time now suggest further discussion go to the FSD forums.


here's a link even

The end!
 
This is why everyone should get a Tesla Decanter.

I wonder how much money Tesla brings in through their various “lifestyle” products on offer. Fun to think about how many T-Shirts Tesla will be able to sell when they become the most sought after consumer brand in the world.
This should give you some idea. A cloth from apple $19. 2-3 month backorder 🤣 sorry if it’s already been posted.
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If everyone is poised to buy on the dip… will there ever be a dip??
I can't see how we could dip between now and the 4Q call, at least not significantly. The numbers are too obvious now, and the math says we'll be underpriced in Feb if we don't move higher.

Much more likely we see a wave of short covering and other capitulations that take up to $1200+ after 4Q earnings is out.