Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rarity]

Even beyond this investment forum, our cult in general is sleeping on the Boring Company. A few years ago I personally thought it was a bad idea and Elon had finally put out a dud. Mainstream public perception is even worse--most believe this system is dangerous, wastefully expensive, bad for the environment, a publicity stunt, only meant for elites, and low capacity. To me this feels like the EV industry in 2010 all over again, with the truth drowned out by a flood of misinformation, misunderstanding and lies.

The rapid construction this decade of Loop systems in Las Vegas and then probably South Florida, two of America's two most popular travel destinations, with nascent Loops blooming in several other cities, will be a major awakening.

Already, per Steve Davis, several hundred thousand people have ridden in the LVCC Loop. Statistically speaking, we know that for the majority of those riders this was their first experience in a Tesla. No doubt this is already contributing a non-negligible amount to the explosion of American and Canadian demand for Teslas we've witnessed since the summer.

I want a future with cities quiet enough to hear the birds singing, where impediments to walking and cycling are removed, and where children can play in many of the old streets formerly filled with traffic. I want to address a significant root cause of the developed world's obesity and cancer crisis. I want to stop routing highways and arterial roads through disadvantaged communities. I want to solve traffic once and for all.

I agree with most of this, but I haven't seen any indications that TBC has yet figured out how to deal with local politics and the business case in most areas.

It's pretty simple in Las Vegas to start. TBC funds and digs the tunnel, the destinations fund and construct the stations. TBC charges fares and gives a modest cut to the government.

But when there are no large destinations to fund the stations, the business case becomes murkier, at least for now. You are seeing this with regard to the build out into the Las Vegas community. Steve Hill of the LVCVA has mentioned that public subsidies might be needed. All this might work in Las Vegas, but perhaps not in other cities. Perhaps TBC will need to get creative.

Of course, Loop doesn't need to make sense in all cities at this time. It takes just one, or a few. So I am hopeful that TBC has time to figure all of this out.

But for Tesla investors, this is merely details. We are getting a good deal for free. All gravy. We should keep an eye out for Austin, by the way. Big things probably will happen there.

 

[Rarity]

BB+ credit rating secured.

They are having trouble finding clouds on the horizon. S&P mentions that potential competitors have "vertical integration capabilities." But we know that except for Toyota, that's not remotely the case.

 

[Drumheller]

Or @401kcormak was her herself trying to learn more about Tesla and fight back against how she was perceived, and with one very legitimate complaint being the nasty under the beltline responses she got on twitter.

This should not detract from the legitimate negative responses though, and to just pin it on 'Tesla uberbulls are disgusting' ?

It's true, some are, but you have seen nothing yet if you didn't look at TESLAQ through the same lense. For example the rapist pedophile pig responses of Mark Spiegel directed at the global warming activist teen Greta Thunberg. (I wrote MontanaSkeptic but it was pointed out to me that I got this wrong, thanks for the heads up)

Generally twitterverser and other anonymous internet platforms are bringing out the worst on all sides.

She tweeted, with an included video, indicating she would like to physically assault Musk. I'm having trouble feeling sympathy for her.

 

[ninpb]

What a silly world we live in.

On the credit rating scale, reminds me of a bit by comedian Demetri Martin.

When they were naming vitamins they must have thought there were going to be way more vitamins than there ended up being. OK let's name these: Vitamin A, Vitamin B... Ok, man, slow down, we've got a lot to cover here. B2, B3, B4, B5, B6, B12. Then they got to E and they were like 'We're pretty much done. We've got all those damn B's. This is embarrassing. Let's just skip to K and get the hell out of here.

 

[Krugerrand]

BB+ credit rating secured.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451585399437074434

So, still rated junk/speculative/non investment grade. Perfect. Same as yesterday.

 

[SageBrush]

I think one last comment about our little (but growing) cult and social bubble:

I skim TSLAQ pretty regularly, at least weekly. When all I find is nonsensical conspiracy crapola, lies and FUD, I am reassured all is well in the world of TSLA. I feel like taking a long shower afterwards (in fact, they evoke in me a visceral hatred of the same intensity as from trumpers) but I figure any substantial negative news will show up there early.

 

[Sofie]

Or if you have enough cash/capability, sell puts at some point below current price. Collect that premium until it dips a little and the option triggers.

Well yes I have cash/capability. Beyond that, I am pretty sure I just read ancient Egyptian.

But thank you so much!

 

[22522]

This is a social bubble post.

The original post talks about someone who lost money shorting based on TSLAQ misinformation.

Sorry about being cold on this, I have zero compassion for people who lose money shorting any stock.
It is bad practice to bet against or align your motives to cause failure for another human.

Where I have seen a social bubble hurt small investors is around stop losses that people use to protect their capital. People lose a lot of money on stop losses as manipulators drive the price down to trigger programmed selling.

Everyone needs to know that stop losses are the foundational mechanism that allows Cramer money methods described here to work. With no stop loss programmed trading this would not work.

So how do you stop the "Stop losses are good" social bubble misinformation?

 

[henchman24]

Stopped just short of investment grade... well at least we know a catalyst in January!

 

[StealthP3D]

Well informed and clear contrary views always help dissipate excessive optimism. Even those of us who try to be prudent do end out living in a bubble. Once of the sad consequences of our polarized world now is that it is much harder to find non-polemic contrary views.

If you look back through the history of this thread, collectively we have been consistently too bearish on average. Those of us in the top 20% of bullishness made the highest returns. Collectively, we would be billions of dollars richer if we were all as bullish of as the most bullish 20%. There were bulls who lost a lot of money but that was due to short time horizons. To my way of thinking, a highly leveraged short-term call option far out of the money is not super-bullish, it's simply gambling. Being super bullish means one has a very high conviction that Tesla will succeed and prosper excessively in the long term, not that you know where the share price will be in a month.

Since 2018, I have consistently argued that Tesla is a gob-smackingly good long term investment even though I have no strong opinion as to where the share price would be next week or next month and, when it does take off, to be very careful about selling too soon. Even though I include myself in the most bullish 20% of this so-called bubble we are allegedly in (I call it reality), I would have made even more had I been even more bullish, to the point of recklessness even. As it was, I broke every traditional investment rule in the book about being over-concentrated and still I was too conservative.

I will admit that now that TSLA has increased more than 20 fold in 2 1/4 years, I'm much less bullish than I was previously. Yet I still cannot find an investment that I think has a better risk/reward ratio longer term. I would much rather see someone be too bullish than too bearish. The majority of people in the world are too bearish as evidenced by the fact that they see no compelling reason to save money and invest in productive companies.

In short, I'm baffled by those who focus on the small minority who they think are too bullish and try to paint it as if most people here tend to be too bullish. It doesn't align with the facts.

 

[Thumper]

I live a happy life and don't do Facebook or Twitter, but I do read Seeking Alpha regularly to hear negative views on Tesla. If they come up with cogent concerns I'll know. I hope. I try to keep and open mind but they have been nothing but wrong so far. Even if some of the headwinds we know about prove to be significant, it would not mean I should bail on the stock. It's not going to 0 it will just grow less fast.

 

[Xepa777]

If you look back through the history of this thread, collectively we have been consistently too bearish on average. Those of us in the top 20% of bullishness made the highest returns. Collectively, we would be billions of dollars richer if we were all as bullish of as the most bullish 20%. There were bulls who lost a lot of money but that was due to short time horizons. To my way of thinking, a highly leveraged short-term call option far out of the money is not super-bullish, it's simply gambling. Being super bullish means one has a very high conviction that Tesla will succeed and prosper excessively in the long term, not that you know where the share price will be in a month.

Since 2018, I have consistently argued that Tesla is a gob-smackingly good long term investment even though I have no strong opinion as to where the share price would be next week or next month and, when it does take off, to be very careful about selling too soon. Even though I include myself in the most bullish 20% of this so-called bubble we are allegedly in (I call it reality), I would have made even more had I been even more bullish, to the point of recklessness even. As it was, I broke every traditional investment rule in the book about being over-concentrated and still I was too conservative.

I will admit that now that TSLA has increased more than 20 fold in 2 1/4 years, I'm much less bullish than I was previously. Yet I still cannot find an investment that I think has a better risk/reward ratio longer term. I would much rather see someone be too bullish than too bearish. The majority of people in the world are too bearish as evidenced by the fact that they see no compelling reason to save money and invest in productive companies.

In short, I'm baffled by those who focus on the small minority who they think are too bullish and try to paint it as if most people here tend to be too bullish. It doesn't align with the facts.

Crypto easily

I say this as a 2013 TSLA shareholder. The level of information asymmetry between the informed and uninformed, the FUD, and the polarizing emotions all parallel Tesla so strongly it's spooky. Meet me at the crypto thread and I'm happy to talk more!

 

[Knightowl]

Well, did what I could do, over 100 more chairs aquired in the last 2 days for my Roths

Will see what it ends up being in 24yrs when those accounts become useful.

 

[SageBrush]

welcome to the E7’s, next stop, E8’s

e^7 = 10,000,000
e^8 = 100,000,000

At least that is what those exponents mean to me.
My daughter talks in 'figures', as in "WOW, that person has a 6 figure salary." She means > 100,000

 

[capster]

Well informed and clear contrary views always help dissipate excessive optimism. Even those of us who try to be prudent do end out living in a bubble. Once of the sad consequences of our polarized world now is that it is much harder to find non-polemic contrary views.

There are always books, even some good recent ones. For example, consider foreign affairs:

Much of the vocal elite adamantly resisted acknowledging the return to Great Power Geopolitics—with their usual absolutist and dismissive fustian I might add—until very recently. Yet, there was an excellent essay that was quite influential and helped bring the concept back into currency. It forms the first chapter of this book:

The Return of Marco Polo's World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-first Century|eBook

A bracing assessment of U.S. foreign policy and world disorder over the past two decades from the bestselling author of The Revenge of Geography and The Coming Anarchy “[Kaplan] has emerged not only as an eloquent defender of...

www.barnesandnoble.com

Those running our (not-so-universal) Western universities cringe from teaching Grand Strategy—an art rarely more necessary than today. Yet, there is an excellent analysis in that tradition newly available wrt to the greatest challenge the West faces, China:

The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict|eBook

Why and how America’s defense strategy must change in light of China’s power and ambition Elbridge A. Colby was the lead architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the most significant revision of U.S. defense strategy in a generation. Here he lays out how America...

www.barnesandnoble.com

Ironically, those who appreciate neither of these two topics often lean towards expansive and transformational policy goals. Here is an upcoming book by one of such who learned humility via experience and sees the value of nuance and incrementalism:

Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle East Diplomacy|eBook

A perceptive and provocative history of Henry Kissinger's diplomatic negotiations in the Middle East that illuminates the unique challenges and barriers Kissinger and his successors have faced in their attempts to broker peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors. “A wealth...

www.barnesandnoble.com

Although books do have a point-of-view, they usually and mercifully do not require the skill of a Kremlinologist to parse as our major media publications, such as the New York Times, do today.

Also, some not-so-new books yet provide illumination for today’s events with lucidity and often offer respite and relief besides.

 

[woodisgood]

She tweeted, with an included video, indicating she would like to physically assault Musk. I'm having trouble feeling sympathy for her.

I think, just regarding the specific tweet you mention, we should give the benefit of the doubt that her intent was not truly to threaten violence, or incite violence against Elon, but rather to express that she has a passionate frustration/irritation etc. with him. Many of us do this in our online lives - that is after all what a lot of social media/meme culture is about - using hyperbole, sarcasm, and cultural references to spice up what are otherwise relatively mundane thoughts. Sometimes it's in poor taste. I doubt Elon took it as a personal physical threat.

The problem, Ms. Cummings has undoubtedly found, is that when seeking public office or highly scrutinized government positions, one's momentary lapses on social media become relevant, fairly or unfairly, during the vetting process. And after assuming the position in question, folks do not get to enjoy the same freedom of expression they did previously because even things meant in jest carry significant weight when your platform has grown to thousands and beyond.

Perhaps Duke has a tolerance for a certain amount of....vigor....from its faculty, and doesn't feel her conduct warranted much more than a chat. But it should absolutely completely fry her candidacy for the position in question because it revealed a clear pattern of relevant bias and lapses in judgment that question whether this person is capable of impartiality. She is clearly on the defensive, having experienced the consequences of what she has been dishing. It will be telling whether she/Duke/NHTSA puts out a statement with an apology and expressing regret and reflection, as any reasonable adviser would direct, or whether she doubles down on her opinions and how she has expressed them. My guess is it will be the latter.

 

[Open Interest]

Okay bright minds, I need 40 more to my (current) goal; Bite the bullet and buy today or wait until next week?

If you have a long term horizon it doesn’t matter.

 

[StealthP3D]

e^7 = 10,000,000
e^8 = 100,000,000

At least that is what those exponents mean to me.
My daughter talks in 'figures', as in "WOW, that person has a 6 figure salary."

I was really proud of myself when I graduated to making not 6 but 7 figures of earned income every year.

Does it matter that I had to count the digits to the right of the decimal to get there?

 

[AudubonB]

MOD: As was posted quite some hours ago, the discussion regarding Missy Cummings was fully explored.

===>AT THE VERY EARLIEST<===, until such time as the appointment moves forward, there is zero utility in keeping any such discussion shadowing this thread.

 

[Curt Renz]

Stopped just short of investment grade... well at least we know a catalyst in January!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451594130983985168