Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dm28997]

I have heard that TSLA stock can be purchased in a block chain of some sort. Not sure if this materialized but what if Elon sells TSLA in this fashion?
I imagine the SEC might be concerned if this is even possible. Just now I found that binance has stock tokens in TSLA and some other stocks but it appears to be no longer possible. I see an advantage of instant trade settlements, ironclad traceability among some advantages.
But regulations may be an issue. Just some speculative thinking.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla has increased the price of the Model S/X Long Range by $5,000 each. There’s now only a $15k price difference between X long range and X Plaid.
Tesla has increased the price of US Model Y Long Range and Model 3 Standard Range Plus variants by $2,000. No change to performance variants.

• Model S LR: $94,990
• Model X LR: $104,990
• Model Y LR starting price: $56,990
• Model 3 Standard Range Plus starring price: $43,990

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451723452621201410

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451725128757305344

Sigh. Well that's it then, I was planning to order a red MY LR in January 2022 but these constant price increases throughout 2021 have made me question whether or not the price was worth it to me, and now with this latest increase the frugal side of me simply can't justify it any more.

Could I afford it? Probably. Doesn't mean I like spending that much money on a car though, it's just too high for me to feel good about it now. Prices will come down in time and that would lower the trade in value of my MY if I bought it at these very inflated prices.

As a TSLA investor I'm happy about these price increases, but as a potential buyer they worry me, because I'm sure other potential buyers out there are reacting the same way I am too.

 

[Buckminster]

How long will it take to justify replacing all the old decrepit subway systems in the world? NYC? London? Etc.

London subway is not great but improving. Half of the trains have air con and most will have air con by the end of the decade. London is better for visitors in the WFH world.

 

[Buckminster]

Sigh. Well that's it then, I was planning to order a red MY LR in January 2022 but these constant price increases throughout 2021 have made me question whether or not the price was worth it to me, and now with this latest increase the frugal side of me simply can't justify it any more.

Could I afford it? Probably. Doesn't mean I like spending that much money on a car though, it's just too high for me to feel good about it now. Prices will come down in time and that would lower the trade in value of my MY if I bought it at these very inflated prices.

As a TSLA investor I'm happy about these price increases, but as a potential buyer they worry me, because I'm sure other potential buyers out there are reacting the same way I am too.

I had similar thoughts - $35k M3 value is my baseline. Tesla can and will reduce overtime but as a shareholder I am very happy that they are making hay whilst the sun is shining.

 

[RobDickinson]

You've missed the boat on the $35k model 3.

When it was launched it was way ahead of the average US car price, now thats at $45k...

 

[Gigapress]

I have come to the realization that Elon Musk is solving man's problems as fast as he can. The only reason we're doomed is because he won't live forever.

But wait, that just means that the remaining population of the world only has only one responsibility - keep Elon alive until he fixes everything. Can't we at least do that?

Hold on, think from first principles here. The best demise is no demise. What in the Standard Model of physics dictates that immortality is impossible?

I mean, as long as we supply our Memelord & Savior with a steady flow of negative entropy, the rest is just a matter of keeping all the atoms in the right configuration. And luckily, he's already working on giving everyone sustainable energy. So in theory, with sufficiently advanced lifespan engineering, he could keep kicking until the heat death of the universe.

Elon: I mean I do think there’s…in order to fundamentally solve a lot of these issues [with anti-aging], we are going to have to reprogram our DNA. That’s the only way to do it.

Me [Tim from WaitButWhy]: And deep down, DNA is just a physical material.

Elon: [Nods, then pauses as he looks over my shoulder in a daze] It’s software.

Elon Musk Series: Introduction — Wait But Why

A post about how Elon Musk became the real world Iron Man.

waitbutwhy.com

 

[Mengy]

I had similar thoughts - $35k M3 value is my baseline. Tesla can and will reduce overtime but as a shareholder I am very happy that they are making hay whilst the sun is shining.

Then again, a $2000 increase spread out over 60 payments isn't that big of a difference.....

 

[UCF3]

The weird thing about this sale is, the price does not really matter to Elon. His main motivation is to exercise and sell close to the exercise price and pay it as taxes to IRS / CA. He ends up paying a fixed share of his holdings. This is not the dynamic when Tesla raises capital where it seeks to get best execution.

This could then actually be structured as a block sale, at let's say VWAP of the day and settled after market. And Elon can exercise exactly the amount needed for that sale.

If the other side is a big name like Buffett, that sale could actually be very bullish.
Elon also doesn't need to do this in a single huge transaction. Could be sold in a few blocks.

My spidey senses say it could be Buffet (BYD deal, Elon might have dropped a Twitter hint, most valuable manufacturer in the US and how can Buffett miss this, he's is sitting on too much cash, etc.), but probably less than 20% chance.

A big name like Buffet? Elon needs to sell $9 billion in stock. That would make the purchaser the third largest individual shareholder, ahead of Uncle Leo. That doesn’t leave many options

 

[Krugerrand]

You are all skirting around the REAL question.

WHAT THE HECK ARE WE GOING TO DO WITH ALL THIS MONEY ?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

These price bumps are all about demand and the looming subsidies in the US, no? You'll be getting 5-10k off these prices next year.

 

[Buckminster]

We seem to be still on for FSD V10.3 in 3.5 hrs.

 

[Prunesquallor]

View attachment 724543

Nice and subtle. Classy.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hey now that Automotive is scaled and we're just waiting on cells for Energy to scale.....what do we think about doing some Moon stuff?

I was watching Dune and Arrakis had a moon with another little moon orbiting it. Aren't we sick of only having just the same moon? Could we carve off part of it to create a secondary moon, then roundoff the primary moon? Or maybe take Florida up there?

Just a thought.

 

[Buckminster]

Appropriate threads for an ATH:
For those above 90% TSLA - What other tech stock to consider?
How to Handle Success
TSLA, biodiversity collapse & climate change
Professional Trader Status
When to retire?
Your celebratory music selections
Early retirement strategies
What will you splurge your TSLA gains on?
Reminding myself how Tesla is so far ahead that it is seriously undervalued
Late to the Party - Last Minute Retirement Planning

 

[Evoforce]

You are all skirting around the REAL question.

WHAT THE HECK ARE WE GOING TO DO WITH ALL THIS MONEY?

My question would be is how are we going to legally pay the least amount of tax on this money?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

You are all skirting around the REAL question.

WHAT THE HECK ARE WE GOING TO DO WITH ALL THIS MONEY ?

Everyone is like the dog that chases the car their whole life.

Not very many actually unexpectedly catch the car.

You caught the car. Congrats. So....what now?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Everyone is like the dog that chases the car their whole life.

Not very many actually unexpectedly catch the car.

You caught the car. Congrats. So....what now?

Jump in the backseat and enjoy the ride.

 

[petit_bateau]

I've written extensively here how Tesla can do exactly that, going of FCF only with a 50% growth rate. See my series of posts on modulular bty factories, or what I nicknamed Giga Cubes, or "G-Cubes"

Search TMC for "g-cube"​

Post of Merit #37 - the "G-Cube"​

This business case discussion goes back to April 2020 (about 1.5 yrs before Battery Day). I now believe this same strategy is precisely how Tesla intends to conduct the expansion to 20M/yr production.

It was even more telling that during the Q3'31 Conference Call, Zach used the exact figure 50% growth target for several years. Also, he emphasized that Tesla intends to get the 3 new Model Y factories fully ramped (1.5M+ / yr) BEFORE the $25K car is introduced.

This doesn't imply taking on addtional debt. It implies establishing a profitable business line which will fund the next round of expansion. That was my guess back in April 2020, and I see nothing that indicates the plan has changed.

Tesla wouldn't be paying off debt early if they didn't prefer to have not debt. It's against their corporate culture now. They eventually will vertically intergrate their banking, I expect

Cheers!

As we know it is a no-brainer that Tesla doesn't need to take on more debt to build out to 20m/yr by 2030 (inc the energy side). This however does beg the question where might Tesa deploy the unallocated free cash flow in the success case.

If you recall the Tesla mission statement, "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. " Therefore rather than paying out dividends - which as far as I can see would just mean some of you buy an extra island or mountain, which does not align with the mission statement - where else might Tesla deploy that extra free cash ? A possible answer is Tesla Finance Corp which would have a similar objective to the old GE Finance Corp, i.e. lend the customers money to buy their Teslas. That would simultaneously solve the problem of how do poorer people buy Teslas (even buying a new $25k Model 2 Tesla is beyond the resources of most folk in the world) and how to mop up that spare cash and all in a way that aligns with the mission statement. Same goes for Tesla Energy products which need financing even more frequently.

I appreciate Tesla already does finance, but that is both smallbeer and relies on conventional finance industry mechanisms by comparison with what may come. And I'm guessing Tesla will do it in some unconventional ways that create massive global finance industry shocks and regulatory headaches. Logically the Finance division would contain the Insurance division, and the combination of data feeds from the various product offerings would give a pretty good credit scoring system.

So:
- Tesla Vehicles
- Tesla Energy
- Tesla Robotics
- Tesla Finance

At the moment only one of those four is contributing to the mission in a material manner. The future is going to be quite interesting.

 

[kbM3]

Agree.
Also, consider when (if) robotaxis become a reality. Much have been said about leasing or selling - or not selling at all after a certain date and Tesla keeping all future robotaxi cars. We don't know what will happen.

But, a wide roll-out of boring tunnels offers a way to both sell FSD and still have a *lot* of recurring income, for 3 reasons:

• Tesla App
• Tesla Insurance
• Exclusive or priority access to Boring tunnels, making transportation faster. So, it is worth more for the customer, and the taxi can have more rides. Double effect!

App/network and insurance alone is enough to warrent a hefty fee, but all 3 packaged as one is a killer TAAS package. The Apple tax is 30%. Access to all 3 above? Much more - maybe half?

Off course such a roll-out will take decades. But think of the benefits: No more soul-crushing traffic.
Below 1000 km distance transportation will truly be solved!

(The only thing able to compete will be StarTrek-style teleportation)

I don’t understand why you’re listing Insurance in this scenario.

As soon as Tesla states no supervision required (which obviously includes robo-taxi), they accept all liability for collisions.

So why would anyone purchase collision insurance if Tesla is the one who will have to pay the claim anyway?

 

[pz1975]

I made a pact to myself last year that every time TSLA hits an ATH I would buy something from the Tesla store. 2 ATHs this week = 2 items. I got the desktop supercharger and the S3XY mug. Win-win = cool swag for me and more $ to Tesla’s bottom line.