Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

For those of you fixated on the P/E ratio, something to chew on . . . . .
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months
Model assumes:
- 890k deliveries in 2021 and 1.4m in 2022.
- Margins flat to Q3 2020 for all future quarters
- Modest growth in R&D and SG&A

Today the P/E ratio is at 291 and will likely go to 194 at year end using the current $900 share price (See Yellow boxes below).
By Q4 2022, the model shows $11.07 in GAAP EPS getting us to an 81 P/E Ratio at $900; at a $1800 share price, P/E is at 163 (see Orange boxes)
The table at the bottom shows the same numbers using Non-GAAP EPS for those of you who prefer that metric.

View attachment 725130

Awesome stuff, thanks! A 90 PE with SP @ $1000 is just hilarious.

We don't stop enough and appreciate how Elon has responded to Wall Street's irrational demand that Tesla be profitable. I can't imagine something like this has ever happened outside of maybe oil & coal or rail monopolies.

Growing at 50-100%, we knew that was coming. Doing it with these margins is just bizarre. I constantly feel like we must be missing something, but every day it gets more clear that we aren't. Tesla is just a beast.

 

[MC3OZ]

This news just prompted me to order Shadowfax. Estimated delivery date is next August.

That car name is already taken

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla 4680 Structural Pack Show & Tell - Part 1​

 

[MXWing]

early on a person that crosses the Million $ mark should get some credit. I started with $+80k "IF" I get to $1,000,000 I'm damn sure gonna claim to be a Soft Musketeer. And if a guy pony ups $1,000,000 to buy TSLA he should get a membership card as well... just a "Soft" one.
But to consider something you haven't mentioned...what about the guy that bought 6.5 million shares. he's not considered a Musketeer until his average stock price goes up 18 cents?

The guy with enough cash to buy 6.5 million shares initially, achieves on the margin, far less when reaching Teslanaire status.

But if we wanted to run a game for fun, it should have rules like the following:

Teslanaire Diamond
1 million per 100,000 investment. 10X

Teslanaire Platinum
1 million per 200,000 investment. 5x

Teslanaire Gold
1 million per 333,333 investment. 3x

 

[jschwefel]

Yes I think the first delivered 3 was already on AP 2.5?

Do you see a kind of washed out red (looks almost like light pink) on the pictures coming from the side cameras? That's how AP 2.0 cameras look.

I took the car out for more driving this afternoon. It was raining most of the time, but it still performed okay. I just finished watching Rob Mauer’s video from early this morning, and my visualizations are nearly identical. The red lines are sometimes blurry, but not pink in color; other times they are very well defined. So it seems this early Model 3 has the AP 2.5 camera hardware.

So how’d it do in the rain this afternoon? Pretty good. I had fewer disengagements than what I saw in Rob’s video, but still not perfect. Nor should it be perfect at this stage. That’s why it’s called “beta”. As noted elsewhere, I too had some issues with the forward collision warning alerts. I experienced several of them, with no apparent problem; one even occurred in my driveway as I passed another parked car. Like the other issues, I’m sure Tesla will fix this soon enough. As you know, they move fast.

Overall, FSD at this beta stage is quite impressive. It does some amazing things, but in reality it’s still pretty young. It will only get better, and I’m looking forward to doing what I can to see to it that it does.

Cheers!

 

[Ohmster]

Room to run…..

2 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip — Entrepreneur

Investors should use market volatility to enter positions in fundamentally sound stocks. Two such names are Tesla (TSLA) and Peloton (PTON), and they are worth buying on market weakness based...

apple.news

Opportunity coming?

Tesla Hits Speed Bump With Self-Driving Software — Barron's

Tesla rolled back the latest version of its autonomous driving software, called full self driving, or FSD. It’s a setback for Tesla. The decision will lead to questions about how Tesla introduces new features. It could also lead to some stock market volatility on Monday.

apple.news

 

[jschwefel]

@jschwefel If you see blue sky in the sentry video, you have new cameras. Original were 3*grey,red.

I though they only added Blue, but this article says full color:
Camera Upgrade – TeslaTap

Yes! Confirmed. Thank you.

 

[GOVA]

Not sure if posted:

Tesla Plaid Teardowns - Front Drive Unit​

 

[Singuy]

Opportunity coming?

Tesla Hits Speed Bump With Self-Driving Software — Barron's

Tesla rolled back the latest version of its autonomous driving software, called full self driving, or FSD. It’s a setback for Tesla. The decision will lead to questions about how Tesla introduces new features. It could also lead to some stock market volatility on Monday.

apple.news

No one cares. It affected a few thousand people for a few hours. I can't think of a more minor issue.

This is also not the first time Tesla rolled back or held release for awhile since I'm like never the first person to get the latest software. They have been staggering release for all of them, most of the time releasing to way more than a few thousand for validation. There's just more eyeballs on FSD because it's more interesting than cold weather updates.

 

[FastCompany]

Now I expect the roll back to make headlines, maybe just in time for the MMD.

Tesla is showing NHTSA how they do a "recall" to all affected cars in the fleet.

 

[JRP3]

No one cares. It affected a few thousand people for a few hours. I can't think of a more minor issue.

Tesla is showing NHTSA how they do a "recall" to all affected cars in the fleet.

Does anyone think this is how the media will spin this? Sure it's a nothing burger in the grand scheme but I'd expect a pile on tomorrow pushing the share price down.

 

[FastCompany]

The guy with enough cash to buy 6.5 million shares initially, achieves on the margin, far less when reaching Teslanaire status.

But if we wanted to run a game for fun, it should have rules like the following:

Teslanaire Diamond
1 million per 100,000 investment. 10X

Teslanaire Platinum
1 million per 200,000 investment. 5x

Teslanaire Gold
1 million per 333,333 investment. 3x

(\_/)
( •_•)
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[BornToFly]

Me, waiting for the market to open tomorrow -

 

[ifish]

NOT a Reply and OT ,I couldn't figure out how to start a new post
I woke up at 4:30 am on Sept 20 & couldn't go back to sleep, went downstairs to my laptop logged in and on facebook there was a posting about Battery Day. I had known about Tesla but not much, I clicked on it ,watched the whole presentation & being a engineer understood everything, and as soon as the markets opened I sold every share of stocks (one was a 10 bagger over 20 yrs) in various accounts and went ALL IN on Tesla plus ordered a CT and a Y, that is scheduled for Feb delivery. After driving for 62 yrs I have no desire to drive a car anymore and FSD will definitely be a option bought.

 

[Favguy]

The guy with enough cash to buy 6.5 million shares initially, achieves on the margin, far less when reaching Teslanaire status.

But if we wanted to run a game for fun, it should have rules like the following:

Teslanaire Diamond
1 million per 100,000 investment. 10X

Teslanaire Platinum
1 million per 200,000 investment. 5x

Teslanaire Gold
1 million per 333,333 investment. 3x

And what designation do us early birds get that have achieved over 100x ?

 

[Beltsbear]

Maybe you should also look at the average balance people have in retirement accounts: 401(k) Balance: How You Compare to Others Your Age

• Twentysomethings (Age 20–29): Average 401(k) balance: $10,500​

• Thirtysomethings (Age 30–39): Average 401(k) balance: $38,400​

• Fortysomethings (Age 40–49): Average 401(k) balance: $93,400​

• Fiftysomethings (Age 50–59): Average 401(k) balance: $160,000​

• Sixtysomethings (Age 60–69): Average 401(k) balance: $182,100​

• Seventysomethings (Age 70–79): Average 401(k) balance: $171,400​

The average person isn't even buying 400 shares of TSLA period. Not even if they sold everything they owned and invested every cent they could in it. (Which a lot of people can't, their 401k doesn't allow it.)

I think this is dramatically altered by using the average amount people have in these age brackets by people who have nothing. If you excluded everyone with nothing in there 401(k), the numbers would probably be much higher. In other words the average amount that an actual 401(k) user has versus the population of that age group.

 

[redan]

Morgan Stanley/Adam Jonas joins the increased PT bandwagon in a big way (based off an 8.1 Million 2030 production estimate - boy, are they (and everyone not on TMC) going to be surprised - advice: HODL ):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452437453244190722

 

[Singuy]

Does anyone think this is how the media will spin this? Sure it's a nothing burger in the grand scheme but I'd expect a pile on tomorrow pushing the share price down.

Pretty sure the market is done with the media. Years of lies which caused years of missed opportunities. As Tesla stock goes higher and their financials are stronger, FUD becomes more and more irrelevant.

 

[hacer]

Thank you for bringing things into line.

If I divide the float by the number of Tesla owners (2,000,000) I get 400 shares per which translates into a retirement savings of $364K.

So if the average Tesla owner has $300K in retirement savings and were getting good financial advice rather than bad, they would consume essentially the entire float.

So if:

A) Tesla does not ship junk, and
B) Peter's book is complimentary (you find one in every car), and
C) Customers recognize that the Magellan Fund [run by Peter] made Fidelity Investments

The entire float will be absorbed by high conviction customers and the stock price response to demand will be stiff?

Besides the obvious problems pointed out earlier in your "analysis" there are many people like me who own more than 1 Tesla vehicle. Owning 2 Teslas would not mean you would have twice as much money available to buy stock. Also a number of the cars have been totaled and the owners replaced them with new cars so you are still over counting the available investors by trying to count cars.

I've never read Peter Lynch's book but I highly doubt that it recommends concentrating all of your investment into a single stock. Even if it did I doubt must people could be convinced by such a book when there are so many others out there (some by even more successful investors) recommending diversification instead. Finally if Peter Lynch does recommend concentrating all investment into a single stock then the obvious questions would be: which single stock was it that the Megellan fund owned? Doesn't this mean that he just got lucky with that one single pick, and did he buy it all at once after it was one of the largest capitalized stocks in the market?

 

[HG Wells]

The guy with enough cash to buy 6.5 million shares initially, achieves on the margin, far less when reaching Teslanaire status.

But if we wanted to run a game for fun, it should have rules like the following:

Teslanaire Diamond
1 million per 100,000 investment. 10X

Teslanaire Platinum
1 million per 200,000 investment. 5x

Teslanaire Gold
1 million per 333,333 investment. 3x

The real world is much better than that.
If you bought at $50 and it was at 910 (pre split 4550)
100,000 investment gets you 9.1 MILLION