Sounds like you have a good grip on things.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We've been talking all day as if this leg up is 50% rooted in the Hertz deal. I'd say it's 5% at best.
To me there was no way this long awaited squeeze was gonna get put off til 4Q earnings. The profits were speaking too loud.
What we saw today was from:
15% - unfathomable 1Q deliveries
10% - great 1Q earnings report
15% - very good 2Q deliveries
15% - great 2Q earnings report
5% - very good 3Q deliveries
15% - absurd 3Q margins and ZEV-free profits
15% - looming 4Q profits & rational PE
5% - Wall Street laziness
5% - Hertz surprise
MM's pushed aallllllll this stuff down since April and coiled the spring just like before. And it released.
Hell, we're barely now beating SP500 & QQQ YTD. Here's hoping the bloodbath continues. If we think about how much MM's had to push this down for 6 months, it very well could continue right up beyond the new $1200 target.
To me there was no way this long awaited squeeze was gonna get put off til 4Q earnings. The profits were speaking too loud.
What we saw today was from:
15% - unfathomable 1Q deliveries
10% - great 1Q earnings report
15% - very good 2Q deliveries
15% - great 2Q earnings report
5% - very good 3Q deliveries
15% - absurd 3Q margins and ZEV-free profits
15% - looming 4Q profits & rational PE
5% - Wall Street laziness
5% - Hertz surprise
MM's pushed aallllllll this stuff down since April and coiled the spring just like before. And it released.
Hell, we're barely now beating SP500 & QQQ YTD. Here's hoping the bloodbath continues. If we think about how much MM's had to push this down for 6 months, it very well could continue right up beyond the new $1200 target.
Model S M.D.
Ludicrous Radiologist
Hind sight is a neat thing. But sometimes it’s a bitch. We are super small share holders compared to all the millionaires on this forum. But we are at that age where more than a couple percent of the portfolio in common stock is not prudent. Still, glad we are in for what we have. A little higher and we can buy another Tesla.. Meh. We’ll check in another 5 years.
All share holders matter no matter how much you have. I don’t believe in this gatekeeper/seniority kind of stuff. If you buy the stock and support the company and mission, we are all the same. Hold strong!
Ameliorate
Member
There was a glitch in the matrix and I received a message from the future. Year unknown. Hold!
Sorry I've been withholding this from you all for some time.
Sorry I've been withholding this from you all for some time.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Sorry, I was trying to do a Gordon impression. I apologize for my terrible jokes and poetry today.
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To me it feels like a game of chicken. Everyone was waiting for the first big player to legitimize Tesla. Hertz went in big, and they needed to - they are counting on Tesla to save their company. That message was received.
RobDickinson
Active Member
Yeah the $4bn and sales dont matter, those cars would sell anyhow.
Its the validation and faith a company like Hertz would put into this
Its the validation and faith a company like Hertz would put into this
If it involves Tesla, why would you still think after all these years that old rules apply?Linette saying that we have a problem here.....not sure if i agree with her
I do think the Hertz news is the tipping point of mass EV acceptance on top of great financial quarter & soon to be Berlin / Austin expansion.
Seems like Tesla is underbought in many large finds that target S&P500 as a benchmark. They need to get on the train.
Seems like Tesla is underbought in many large finds that target S&P500 as a benchmark. They need to get on the train.
Tesla's revenue in 2025 can potentially match Apple's annual revenue with 5M cars + whatever energy can contribute. Wallstreet will break if Tesla's growth is still 50% with the operating margin at 20%+. Like how are people suppose to value that?
Remember we are just getting started...
Sell some if you need to.
HODL if you can.
Today's timing is good for me. It is soon time for me to transfer some TSLA shares to the scholarship fund I created this year.
The transfer allows me to fund the institution, get full value for the shares donated, and avoid paying capital gains on the donated shares.
Of course, I could do none of this without the entire Tesla team (led by Elon) and this TMC forum. Words cannot express how much I value this online community. I humbly thank you all.
This was my celebration today.
Sell some if you need to.
HODL if you can.
Today's timing is good for me. It is soon time for me to transfer some TSLA shares to the scholarship fund I created this year.
The transfer allows me to fund the institution, get full value for the shares donated, and avoid paying capital gains on the donated shares.
Of course, I could do none of this without the entire Tesla team (led by Elon) and this TMC forum. Words cannot express how much I value this online community. I humbly thank you all.
This was my celebration today.
Model S M.D.
Ludicrous Radiologist
Allegedly, do your own research, blah freakin blah
Thomas Edison
Active Member
They might even surpass apples operating margin on top of that.
Model S M.D.
Ludicrous Radiologist
Look into collateral based lending. Pledge shares as collateral, get money to fund your life/expenses, keep all of your shares. NFA.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Tesla might waive the destination fee if Hertz agreed to take delivery of them at the factory, otherwise, I bet they will pay it. The documentation fee might be negotiable but I wouldn't count on it:
Mark Fields: I'll tell you what Elon, we'll buy 100,000 of your Model 3 sedans for our rental fleet if you offer us a nice enough discount to make it worthwhile.
Elon: That would be a smart move in your business. But everyone has access to the same pricing, we don't play favorites.
Mark Fields: But this is a volume deal with very low transactional costs. It's standard practice in the industry to give a substantial discount off MSRP.
Elon: We don't have MSRP's, only the actual pricing, everyone pays that amount.
Mark Fields: I went to Harvard Business School filled with professors with illustrious business careers and they would be shocked if you suggested to them a deal this big wouldn't come with a sizeable discount.
Elon Musk: Does this look like Harvard Business School to you? If you want a discount, you will have to make a deal with a manufacturer that offers discounts.
Mark Fields: But I want to add EV's to our fleet, not buy more ICE cars.
Elon Musk: Ford, GM and VW have EV's that would make good rental fleets.
Mark Fields: We don't want a rental fleet of Bolts, Mach-Es and ID3 and 4's. We would like to feature your Model 3's, it would be mutually beneficial.
Elon Musk: That would be a smart business move and I can help you make that happen.
Mark Fields: OK, so how much discount are you willing to offer?
Elon: No discount.
Mark Fields: OK, we would pay full price if you give our rental fleet priority pricing on your Supercharger Network. I was thinking wholesale pricing based on the actual wholesale price of electricity.at each location.
Elon: We've based Supercharger pricing on the actual cost to provide, it's a benefit that comes with Tesla ownership and the pricing is a combination of the costs to build and maintain the network plus the cost of electricity delivered.
Mark Fields: In exchange for the large order, I'm suggesting you should be willing to cut us a deal on Supercharging fees.
Elon: We can't do that without raising the rates on our loyal customers or subsidizing Supercharging with car sales. That wouldn't be fair to other customers.
Mark Fields: You could just absorb the cost as a benefit of such a large purchase contract.
Elon Musk: We are supply constrained, we will sell every car we can make anyway.
Mark Fields: It doesn't sound like you want to do a deal.
Elon Musk: We would love to have Hertz as a customer but there are also significant downsides too.
Mark Fields: What are you talking about?
Elon Musk. 92% of our customers do over 95% of their charging at home. I think it's pretty obvious that a rental fleet would increase the demand for our charging network and, especially in busy areas, it would require an acceleration of the Network buildout. That is an extra cost that we would need to absorb.
Mark Fields: I was thinking we would be installing Level 2 chargers at all of pick-up/return locations so I'm not sure our fleet would increase Supercharging demand, at least not in any dramatic fashion. I'll tell you what: We will pay full price for 100,000 Model 3's and pay standard Supercharger rates if you can deliver them by next November.
Elon Musk: With our Texas plant coming on line at the end of the year t]he delivery timeline isn't a problem but it will increase wait times for future Model 3 retail buyers. That's not a problem because it's first come-first served. But I'm still not convinced your rental fleet won't cause a demand spike on the charging network.
Mark Fields: I'll tell you what. We can write in the contract that we will install 1 Level 2 charger on our lots for every 15 cars you deliver. That's 6,666 Level 2 chargers fleetwide.
Elon Musk: I think you will need at least one charger capable of delivering 48 amps for every four Model 3's in your fleet to provide reasonable assurances that there won't be undue negative impacts to our network. It will actually save Hertz considerable money if all possible charging is done in-house and your customers will appreciate the added convenience. I hate to break this off but I'm 10 minutes late to an important meeting in Boca Chica and my plane is waiting.
Mark Fields: OK, OK, I'll do it! Thank you for setting me straight. Have your people draw up the contract, 100,000 cars by next November, right?
Elon Musk: Sure, nice talking shop with you!
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LOL, what can I say?
it's for the action, if they are green tomorrow, will close them out.
TSLA going up another ~40% by Friday would be pretty sick.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
My model is predicting nearly 30% operating margin by 2025. With autonomy revenue totally excluded.
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