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Just posting to mark the day! Was too busy having caviar & champagne.

Ok, it was really a nice piece of salmon & and longboard larger.
I was looking for a bottle of Prosecco to pop open but then remembered I don't drink. Had a Jarritos orange soda instead. Ah the bubbly joy of orange soda and constantly refreshing the TSLA SP.
 
A portion of the the Hertz Model 3s will be available for rent in Europe, which would assume they will be coming from Giga Shanghai


The cars will be delivered over the next 14 months, and Tesla Inc.‘s Model 3 sedans will be available to rent at Hertz locations in major U.S. markets and parts of Europe starting in early November, the rental company said in a statement. Customers will have access to Tesla’s network of superchargers, and Hertz is also building its own charging infrastructure.
 
I think the next free colour will be Hertz yellow. I have seen a few Teslas with yellow wraps and they look sharp.
The best Hertz advantage with owning Tesla is Hertz will be able to track all their Tesla's and know exactly where they are (and what they are doing) at all times. No other auto offers this. I see most all major auto rental agencies switching to BEVs with Tesla the most predominant choice. Well done Hertz.
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I sure hope Yellow becomes standard , we'll save $2000 on wraps for the M Y & CT we have on order to start our new marketing campaign "from gas guzzeler to green"
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The first split was announced when we were around $2,200 / share. Perhaps a 2-1 split is forthcoming now?

DateOpenHighLowClose*Adj Close**Volume
Aug 31, 2020444.61500.14440.11498.32498.32118,374,400
Aug 31, 20205:1 Stock Split
Aug 28, 2020459.02463.70437.30442.68442.68100,406,000
*Close price adjusted for splits.**Adjusted close price adjusted for splits and dividend and/or capital gain distributions.
The SP was in the 1300s (pre-split) when the split was announced on August 11th last year. It was around $2200 (pre-split) when the split took effect August 31st.
 
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This is why selling to Hertz was a bad idea. The wait time for new Teslas is going to double, if not triple, from all the new demand. The new customers will get tired of waiting for Tesla to deliver and never consider buying again. This is the beginning of the end.

Have you walked into a new car dealership lately? Due to chip shortage and logistic chaos, everyone is struggling. You can either buy what they have on lot (usually at a premium) or some models/config that no one wants.

I don't really see Tesla being too worried about the added demand. They were already shocked/overwhelmed by it, with or without Hertz. Thus, the main idea is figure out how to build as quickly as possible.

When Austin actually starts pumping out MY with a reasonable rate, I'd believe Fremont can shift their capacities to produce more M3 if needed.

As for the news today, I think this is truly the turning point. For a major car rental company to place an order of this scale... not an order to test water, but an order big enough to replace 1/4 of their current fleet, you know this is serious. It's finally at a point where it makes financial sense for a car rental company (who are usually extremely cost-conscious) to invest the charging infrastructure to all their locations (at a bare minimum is to have a few 14-50 plugs).

Kinda remind me a few years back, the format war between Bluray and HDDVD. The last nail in the coffin was for Warner Bros going to be Bluray only. That's when Toshiba (the main backer behind HDDVD) announced that they would stop making HDDVD because all the other companies associated with HDDVD basically started quitting left and right after the WB announcement.

The Hertz announcement is significant because not only it's going to push the other major rental companies to re-think their EV timeline, it's eating into a pie that has traditionally been dominated by ICE players thus far, especially the guys at Detroit. It's just something they took for granted. Now, I think the guys at Detroit are scrambling to put together a proposal for Avis/Enterprise for them to simply "not go Tesla".

However, Hertz wasn't stupid. I'm sure they've had a behind-the-scene discussion with Ford/GM/Chrysler. But ultimately chose Tesla, who didn't even budge on offering them a volume discount or anything like that. The reason is very simple. Tesla is the only one that has a remotely-close scale to push that kind of volume (manufacturing advantage), easy to use and proven track record (design advantage), software prowess, supercharger network (no need to educate customers for anything. Just put their destination, GPS calculate where they need to charge, plug and go) and ultimately an EV.

This same advantage is going to continue. It's going to be hard for the Big3 to come up with a reasonable value proposition now that Hertz is with Tesla. We all know that Tesla offers vast superior EV experience. They (car rentals) likely would know too as they would do their due diligence before making a billion dollar bet. The last thing Avis/Enterprise want is to announce they are going EV as well and offer a sub-par experience vs. Hertz.
 
Have you walked into a new car dealership lately? Due to chip shortage and logistic chaos, everyone is struggling. You can either buy what they have on lot (usually at a premium) or some models/config that no one wants.

I don't really see Tesla being too worried about the added demand. They were already shocked/overwhelmed by it, with or without Hertz. Thus, the main idea is figure out how to build as quickly as possible.

When Austin actually starts pumping out MY with a reasonable rate, I'd believe Fremont can shift their capacities to produce more M3 if needed.

As for the news today, I think this is truly the turning point. For a major car rental company to place an order of this scale... not an order to test water, but an order big enough to replace 1/4 of their current fleet, you know this is serious. It's finally at a point where it makes financial sense for a car rental company (who are usually extremely cost-conscious) to invest the charging infrastructure to all their locations (at a bare minimum is to have a few 14-50 plugs).

Kinda remind me a few years back, the format war between Bluray and HDDVD. The last nail in the coffin was for Warner Bros going to be Bluray only. That's when Toshiba (the main backer behind HDDVD) announced that they would stop making HDDVD because all the other companies associated with HDDVD basically started quitting left and right after the WB announcement.

The Hertz announcement is significant because not only it's going to push the other major rental companies to re-think their EV timeline, it's eating into a pie that has traditionally been dominated by ICE players thus far, especially the guys at Detroit. It's just something they took for granted. Now, I think the guys at Detroit are scrambling to put together a proposal for Avis/Enterprise for them to simply "not go Tesla".

However, Hertz wasn't stupid. I'm sure they've had a behind-the-scene discussion with Ford/GM/Chrysler. But ultimately chose Tesla, who didn't even budge on offering them a volume discount or anything like that. The reason is very simple. Tesla is the only one that has a remotely-close scale to push that kind of volume (manufacturing advantage), easy to use and proven track record (design advantage), software prowess, supercharger network (no need to educate customers for anything. Just put their destination, GPS calculate where they need to charge, plug and go) and ultimately an EV.

This same advantage is going to continue. It's going to be hard for the Big3 to come up with a reasonable value proposition now that Hertz is with Tesla. We all know that Tesla offers vast superior EV experience. They (car rentals) likely would know too as they would do their due diligence before making a billion dollar bet. The last thing Avis/Enterprise want is to announce they are going EV as well and offer a sub-par experience vs. Hertz.
I think a car rental company will strongly prefer an LFP battery, except perhaps in very cold climates..

The battery can be charged to 100% at pickup, it doesn't matter how the customer treats the battery, the car and battery should last 10 years...
Outside of Tesla, LFP packs are mostly only available in Chinese cars, Tesla is way more appealing for a prospective customer.

And in addition the Supercharger network is available most places the customer will wants to go...

The 3rd factor is being able to supply the volume of cars required... in the timeframe required...

Other car rental and taxi companies will probably crunch the numbers and come to the same conclusion...
 
What I hope to see is, 4680 LFP cells for Model 3, Model Y, Model C (2?).
4680 is just the size of the battery. Unfortunately this size has been conflated with the new more efficient tabless design they plan to first release in the 4680 size. In the Q2 earnings call Elon said they may use the older 2170 batteries in the first Model Ys coming out of Austin (and maybe Berlin) until the tabless 4680 production ramps up which probably won't be until the middle or end of 2022. So the form factor (size) may not be a big deal.

I agree, LFP could be the chemistry of the future because Iron is cheap and plentiful. But IIUC the next big step forward will be the tabless design which isn't LFP. LFP is less efficient than the current (2170) batteries while the new tabless 4680s will be significantly more efficient than the current ones.

With existing technology LFP and long range are not compatible. It would be great if all batteries used the same form factor but the important thing is the chemistry. Higher efficiency LFP batteries would be mind-blowing and revolutionary. Tesla is able to get away with using the current lower efficiency LFP batteries in their standard range Model 3 because the motors and everything else are so efficient. Most other Western car makers can't use LFP. They already need more KWh to compensate for their lower overall efficiency in order to have not-terrible range. If they combine their low efficiency cars with low efficiency LFPs then range, price, and performance become untenable.
 
4680 is just the size of the battery.
Yeah I know, I use it as shorthand for structural packs, front and rear castings and Tesla in house cell production...

So I want to see Austin and Berlin make a new version of the Model 3 with a 4680 pack with front and rear castings...

The advantage is using 4680 in a variety of chemistries in all high volume models, with a mix of external suppliers and in house production...

Mostly they just need to crank out more cars ASAP.... but this is a likely Capex efficient path towards doing that...
 
Yeah I know, I use it as shorthand for structural packs, front and rear castings and Tesla in house cell production...

So I want to see Austin and Berlin make a new version of the Model 3 with a 4680 pack with front and rear castings...

The advantage is using 4680 in a variety of chemistries in all high volume models, with a mix of external suppliers and in house production...

Mostly they just need to crank out more cars ASAP.... but this is a likely Capex efficient path towards doing that...
Just a matter of timing and getting things online as they can. Model Y, then Cybertruck, then Semi, then Roadster, then they will likely circle back to existing models.

Of course by then they might be ready for the lower priced $25k car Musk hinted about at Battery Day by then and that might suck all the air from the room.