This is why selling to Hertz was a bad idea. The wait time for new Teslas is going to double, if not triple, from all the new demand. The new customers will get tired of waiting for Tesla to deliver and never consider buying again. This is the beginning of the end.
Have you walked into a new car dealership lately? Due to chip shortage and logistic chaos, everyone is struggling. You can either buy what they have on lot (usually at a premium) or some models/config that no one wants.
I don't really see Tesla being too worried about the added demand. They were already shocked/overwhelmed by it, with or without Hertz. Thus, the main idea is figure out how to build as quickly as possible.
When Austin actually starts pumping out MY with a reasonable rate, I'd believe Fremont can shift their capacities to produce more M3 if needed.
As for the news today, I think this is truly the turning point. For a major car rental company to place an order of this scale... not an order to test water, but an order big enough to replace 1/4 of their current fleet, you know this is serious. It's finally at a point where it makes financial sense for a car rental company (who are usually extremely cost-conscious) to invest the charging infrastructure to all their locations (at a bare minimum is to have a few 14-50 plugs).
Kinda remind me a few years back, the format war between Bluray and HDDVD. The last nail in the coffin was for Warner Bros going to be Bluray only. That's when Toshiba (the main backer behind HDDVD) announced that they would stop making HDDVD because all the other companies associated with HDDVD basically started quitting left and right after the WB announcement.
The Hertz announcement is significant because not only it's going to push the other major rental companies to re-think their EV timeline, it's eating into a pie that has traditionally been dominated by ICE players thus far, especially the guys at Detroit. It's just something they took for granted. Now, I think the guys at Detroit are scrambling to put together a proposal for Avis/Enterprise for them to simply "not go Tesla".
However, Hertz wasn't stupid. I'm sure they've had a behind-the-scene discussion with Ford/GM/Chrysler. But ultimately chose Tesla, who didn't even budge on offering them a volume discount or anything like that. The reason is very simple. Tesla is the only one that has a remotely-close scale to push that kind of volume (manufacturing advantage), easy to use and proven track record (design advantage), software prowess, supercharger network (no need to educate customers for anything. Just put their destination, GPS calculate where they need to charge, plug and go) and ultimately an EV.
This same advantage is going to continue. It's going to be hard for the Big3 to come up with a reasonable value proposition now that Hertz is with Tesla. We all know that Tesla offers vast superior EV experience. They (car rentals) likely would know too as they would do their due diligence before making a billion dollar bet. The last thing Avis/Enterprise want is to announce they are going EV as well and offer a sub-par experience vs. Hertz.