Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Not a fan of these 'group' sales charts but considering all the other manufacturers are 100% focused on Europe and Tesla isnt and still doesnt have local production this isnt bad.

Strange Troy has Tesla down for 46k for Europe in Q3 ? Ah that graph doesnt include UK.

I am not a fan of "brand" sales that compares Tesla "brand" vs VW brand, Audi brand, Porsche brand, Skoda brand, SEAT brand. It is the same company.

The Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance is a weird neither here nor there frankenfish creation.

UK won't report registrations till 3+ months from now. Can't wait on the Brits to start analysis.

 

[RobDickinson]

They are their own separate comapnies with their own boards etc though. yes all owned by VW group which is mostly owned by the Porsche family.

But then do you group everything together that has any ownership connections, does mazda count as toyota and subaru?

its all a bit of a mess. With a brand you know what make it says on the damned car at least.

 

[Hock1]

40% in risky (TSLA) and 40% in no-risk (cash) seems like a reasonable strategy. But I think you have the labels backwards.

Experts are arguing about whether inflation will be high and persistent, but most agree it will not be zero. Your cash is guaranteed to lose value over time. The only question is how fast. Therefore, cash is not "no-risk," which is why Master of Coin and others have put some in Bitcoin.

In contrast, I say TSLA is guaranteed to gain value over time (longterm), unless civilization collapses. Tesla has too many strengths, too few competitors, too enormous and numerous addressable markets to be stopped from becoming the greatest industrial giant the world has ever seen. If you don't agree, you don't understand the company, IMO. As I have opined before, usually an investment offers safety OR huge potential, but TSLA offers both.

Already done your analysis and agree with you. Still feel the best about what I'm doing, given my situation. I don't want to have to analyze the macro world. I don't have to maximize my returns. I don't have to worry about most black swans. I have the maximum I can afford to risk in the greatest company of my lifetime. Life is good. Very good.
Thanks.

 

[22522]

Yes, but we need to compare a Model 3 with LFP to an ICE car around the same size, keeping in mind the ICE has a useful life of a rental car of 3 years, and I think the Model 3 has a life of more like 10 years..

Hertz should be able to rent the Model 3 for around the same price as the ICE.

A Model 3 with LFP should performance match a BMW 328i and it does. Sub 6 second 0-60. 5.3 vs 5.6 seconds.

I think Hertz has done this comparison and the LFP 3 does fine.

 

[nativewolf]

As soon as Tesla in-house 4680s production method is perfected to acceptable levels (possible any week now) tesla’s Battery constraint problem is a short term issue. The constraint is overcome by simply massively building out its own cell factories. Access to raw materials is a question of money. Yes there isn’t quite enough to go around to everyone who wants it, so whoever pays the most gets it, and tesla is the best positioned to do that. Can see tesla “pulling an Apple” and simply making very large, very long purchase contracts with raw material suppliers, if they haven’t done so already.

exit to add: Tesla increased its planned Capex spending for the next two years, according to the 10-Q which was released this week.

I am not sure...not sure on this one. I can't catalog all the specifics but it seems to me, basing on some dismal research, that they are still going to be quite short. I think the auto side ramps faster than the battery side, they have never overcome battery limitations, not yet. They need basically the current entire Tesla battery capacity to supply utility scale storage at scale and that is not happening. We need to be able to buffer a hundreds of GWhs, thousands actually. Right now the US grid is doing some 466,898 MWh, right now...in fall. Low demand. To adequately replace this you need to have 466*10 hours or 4.6 TWh of storage . Utilities are installing 150-300 MWh systems that just serve to buffer against peaker plants turning on. This does not wean us off gas/coal, they just barely barely move the needle. That's going to require every bit of capacity Tesla has planned and that is just to make an impact in the USA, which while we are an energy hog we are just a small percent of world needs. That's just for the old utility side of things before we put transportation on the grid which will require a massive increase in electricity production and storage.

Neat site:

Real-time Operating Grid - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

You can't move society forward without moving both points in time. Therefore, I am far far more concerned about battery plant build out. Everything I see is just...incremental. Tesla has something like 190GWh planned that I can find, now they could increase this...but for now. No dent on Utility side so that the benefits of EVs is dissipated. We need a renewable powered EV. I see the energy production (solar and wind) being added much much faster than storage. Storage is the constraint as far as I can see, but it really looks limiting when you take a step back and look at the big picture.

I just realized you're a Kiwi. Favorite entrepreneurial country I've never visited. Some of the very best forestry machinery innovation happens there. Great entrepreneurs and adventurers- your own local famous rocket boy and my favorite , the fastest Indian. Didn't mean to drown out your enthusiasm. I'm just not seeing the batteries. Love to be corrected on any points I make.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I just want to take a moment to thank the AI that created all of you, to help guide me through this simulation.

 

[new_sneakers]

@nativewolf I think you raise an important uncertainty. I would love to hear your thoughts and those of others on Tony Seba's Clean Energy U Curve, presented at the start of last year, which suggests that overbuilding solar will help with the limited supply of batteries.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I just want to take a moment to thank the AI that created all of you, to help guide me through this simulation.

NPCs 'r us

 

[MC3OZ]

They need basically the current entire Tesla battery capacity to supply utility scale storage at scale and that is not happening.

Fundamentally battery cell production requires:-

• Raw materials - IMO Tesla needs lithium clay extraction to work.... then LFP batteries are not constrained by raw materials.
• Factories - even with the Battery Day Tech it will take some time to build these, but sites/capex should be no problem...
• Staff - have enough experienced engineers and production staff might be an issue...

Tesla might make energy storage batteries are car factories, but more likely they make batteries for cars, and divert some cells from external suppliers to energy storage.

Eventually I think Tesla might have some factories just to make batteries for energy storage...

When we consider the battery day aim of 3TWh of cell production by 2030 at least 1 TWh of that is LFP made for energy storage, the big problem seems to be having enough Lithium, the next biggest problem is having enough experienced staff.

 

[Spacep0d]

I just want to take a moment to thank the AI that created all of you, to help guide me through this simulation.

"No TMC computer has ever made a mistake, or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error."

Kidding of course. This site has been an amazing guide in my investment journey....along with a few trusted Tesla bulls.

 

[redan]

Goldman Sachs PT upgrade:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453175045593964547

 

[RobDickinson]

$1125 is tomorrows PT right?

 

[AudubonB]

Can you explain more? Do you mean diversify to reduce risks?

Example Numero Primero of when diversification both definitely reduces returns AND immensely, catastrophically (and quite often, fatally) increases risks.

 

[WADan]

You guys are making me glad I locked in a sensible spouse ~30 years ago.

My wife has been harassing me about a bathroom remodel, and I said I don’t want to sell as a lot more appreciation still to be had. Lol.

 

[JRP3]

I hereby offer evidence of the impotence of poetry against the TSLA SP. I rest my case.

Might want to rethink that.

 

[kbM3]

A car company could easily be worth $1T with 30% gross margins and 10 million annual production and no sales growth. That's net profit around $100B annually. Tesla will hit this on their auto business around 2027.

Confused on your numbers. Do you mean 30% NET margin, not gross?

 

[Maitri982]

Fundamentally battery cell production requires:-

• Raw materials - IMO Tesla needs lithium clay extraction to work.... then LFP batteries are not constrained by raw materials.
• Factories - even with the Battery Day Tech it will take some time to build these, but sites/capex should be no problem...
• Staff - have enough experienced engineers and production staff might be an issue...

Tesla might make energy storage batteries are car factories, but more likely they make batteries for cars, and divert some cells from external suppliers to energy storage.

Eventually I think Tesla might have some factories just to make batteries for energy storage...

When we consider the battery day aim of 3TWh of cell production by 2030 at least 1 TWh of that is LFP made for energy storage, the big problem seems to be having enough Lithium, the next biggest problem is having enough experienced staff.

CATL will be the monster producer of LFP for Tesla stationary storage and standard range vehicles.

 

[RobDickinson]

CATL is ramping up LFP production like mad. Tesla will let them handle that

 

[Zero CO2]

40% in risky (TSLA) and 40% in no-risk (cash) seems like a reasonable strategy. But I think you have the labels backwards.

Experts are arguing about whether inflation will be high and persistent, but most agree it will not be zero. Your cash is guaranteed to lose value over time. The only question is how fast. Therefore, cash is not "no-risk," which is why Master of Coin and others have put some in Bitcoin.

In contrast, I say TSLA is guaranteed to gain value over time (longterm), unless civilization collapses. Tesla has too many strengths, too few competitors, too enormous and numerous addressable markets to be stopped from becoming the greatest industrial giant the world has ever seen. If you don't agree, you don't understand the company, IMO. As I have opined before, usually an investment offers safety OR huge potential, but TSLA offers both.

I would argue that without Tesla/Musk forcing the world kicking and screaming into a sustainable future … that civilization collapse is probable ... agree the risk is holding too much cash

 

[Mengy]

Sigh. Well that's it then, I was planning to order a red MY LR in January 2022 but these constant price increases throughout 2021 have made me question whether or not the price was worth it to me, and now with this latest increase the frugal side of me simply can't justify it any more.

Could I afford it? Probably. Doesn't mean I like spending that much money on a car though, it's just too high for me to feel good about it now. Prices will come down in time and that would lower the trade in value of my MY if I bought it at these very inflated prices.

Welp, I finally pulled the trigger and ordered my red Long Range Model Y. Black interior, tow hitch, 19" wheels.

It's time for me to not only be a shareholder but a customer too. I'm a multi-Teslanaire now due to TSLA, at some point I need to ease up on my frugal nature and enjoy a bit of my new found wealth, and what better way to do that than to own the very product I'm invested in and excited about. In the past two days I've earned three Model Y's worth of valuation, upon reflection it just seems stupid and silly of me to not buy a Model Y due to a couple of price hikes I can easily afford to absorb.

Expected delivery is in May 2022, time for the long wait!!!! I wonder what the share price will be next May when I take delivery of my first Tesla!!!!