Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Posted this in the Other Thread to maintain perspective.

TSLA is up 29.55% from it's January highs. (Higher now since originally posted )
SPY is up 22.89% year-to-date.

This is wild, but it's 90% about market makers pushing the stock down since April. They created this inevitable spring unloading over the long summer months of naked shorting to keep things in line while the big boys sat on the beach. I'm sure the SEC is looking into it so we don't have so much +/-5% volatility in $1T+ market cap companies.

Short'n'simple:

Stop Visiting the Beach​

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

I don’t understand writing F’23 instead of 2023… it uses the exact same amount of characters and even takes *longer* to type.

Probably habit. Some companies have a fiscal year that doesn't correspond to a physical year. It's a way of being non-ambiguous which, in general, I appreciate.

 

[navguy12]

Lol. Thanks for the thoughtful response.

Just kidding…was just a thought considering that when I was researching to buy a Y most video reviews and comments here in the model y forum, would name the supercharging network as the number one selling point. Remove that selling point and it completely changes the discussion. I didn’t even bother looking at other options because of this.

Glad the consensus here is that this would have no impact on Tesla.

Been driving my TM3 for 3.5 years (currently at 70,000 kms).

I thought the supercharger network would play a bigger role in my life with this car, but less than 1.5% of the total energy uploaded to my car has come from supercharging. The rest has come from home (or other folks home’s) charging.

Obviously YMMV.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's not obvious that this applies to transportation networks. Most additional nodes just improve capacity and convenience rather than opening up connections a wider driving territory.

More locations will naturally fill in geographical areas without Superchargers. It would be ridiculously foolish to put them all on the same routes.

 

[Gigapress]

It's not obvious that this applies to transportation networks. Most additional nodes just improve capacity and convenience rather than opening up connections a wider driving territory.

I view transportation as analogous to moving data packets on a communication network. The main difference is that we're moving atoms instead of bits. For something like gas/diesel stations, the "communication" interface is so simple that it invites a competitive marketplace. Supercharging differs in that it involves more advanced technology that's difficult to replicate, including but not limited to:

1) Advanced liquid cooling
2) Mass modular production and installation of an entire chunk of chargers in one go (Tesla started doing this last year)
3) Integration between batteries and range estimates and thus route planning, then further integrated across whole fleet for global optimization (as discussed by Drew Baglino on last earnings call)
4) Using a payment app for automatic handshakes (gas station companies could've done this but they're clueless)
5) Integration of the entire fleet with power supply from virtual power plants and autobidder for further optimization
6) Standardization of the best charging protocol that squeezes maximum utility out of each charger (analogous to TCP/IP protocol dominance in internet)


I agree that these network effect advantage are not obvious, which another reason I believe this company is so undervalued. Awesome but currently misunderstood business units --> TSLA profits

 

[jerry33]

I don’t understand writing F’23 instead of 2023… it uses the exact same amount of characters and even takes *longer* to type.

How is F'23 longer than February 23? Or is that Fiscal Year 23? Then shouldn't it be FY23?

 

[Singuy]

Tesla launches new solar roof tiles with more power, higher efficiency​

Tesla previously used its ‘SR60T1’ tile, with a 58.5-watt capacity, in solar roof designs.

Now the company is now producing quotes and starting installations with a new ‘SR72T1’ solar tile.

The new tile features a higher max power output of 71.67watts

Outline.com

outline.com

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455230122777317386

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455230122777317386

Why is Crash Gordon pumping up the stock

 

[jerry33]

More locations will naturally fill in geographical areas without Superchargers. It would be ridiculously foolish to put them all on the same routes.

Wouldn't that be nice, but the blue dots are almost all next to existing locations :-(

 

[Etna]

New SpaceX motivational video, very fitting for today's price action:

 

[woodisgood]

Tesla launches new solar roof tiles with more power, higher efficiency​

Tesla previously used its ‘SR60T1’ tile, with a 58.5-watt capacity, in solar roof designs.

Now the company is now producing quotes and starting installations with a new ‘SR72T1’ solar tile.

The new tile features a higher max power output of 71.67watts

Outline.com

outline.com

Importantly it looks like the new tile can go over certain existing roofs...not sure if that was possible with the old tiles.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I could deal with the crazy run-up today. Squeezing shorts, covering margin calls, gamma issues. I get it.

This little recovery to $1183 after Manchin cashed yet another sabotage check....... is just ridiculous.

 

[jhm]

More locations will naturally fill in geographical areas without Superchargers. It would be ridiculously foolish to put them all on the same routes.

Sure, in-filling is great, but very little of the US population, say, currently lives out of range of any Supercharger. As you add nodes to in-fill these coverage gaps, the remaining gaps become even smaller. As you add nodes, the coverage area grows to include 100% of public roads. The coverage area does not grow asymptotically with n^2.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think an extension cord would likely slow down the maximum charge rate. More connections, more cable length, no liquid cooling. Imagine how a Mach-e owner whose late to a wedding will feel when his app informs him his charge rate has been nerfed due to using an extension! Never again!

When carefully parked, a Mach-e owner should have no problem reaching their charge port with a std length SuC cable:

 

[henchman24]

Sure, in-filling is great, but very little of the US population, say, currently lives out of range of any Supercharger. As you add nodes to in-fill these coverage gaps, the remaining gaps become even smaller. As you add nodes, the coverage area grows to include 100% of public roads. The coverage area does not grow asymptotically with n^2.

IMO The off interstate coverage west of the Mississippi and before the coast is the network's biggest issue right now. The lack of population and EV penetration in those areas are likely holding it all up. But would be damn nice to be able to head north out of Boise, hit central Wyoming, and actually have coverage in NE Montana.

 

[jerry33]

Sure, in-filling is great, but very little of the US population, say, currently lives out of range of any Supercharger.

True only if every current location is 100% 7x24 uptime. There have been a couple of times when the entire SC location was out for one reason or another and I had to wait until power was restored (or the location became available--flooding). Now agreed, a couple of times isn't much, but if you're a family on vacation and you run into this, the S.O. will ask why you didn't get a reliable gas car (never mind that the Tesla is way more reliable, that's not how they will see it).

 

[AudubonB]

Sure, in-filling is great, but very little of the US population, say, currently lives out of range of any Supercharger. As you add nodes to in-fill these coverage gaps, the remaining gaps become even smaller. As you add nodes, the coverage area grows to include 100% of public roads. The coverage area does not grow asymptotically with n^2.

Don't forget to toss a coin to your Moderator.....

 

[mongo]

When carefully parked, a Mach-e owner should have no problem reaching their charge port with a std length SuC cable:

How do you get that conclusion from that image? Tesla US port is on the other side of tire and the other side of car (when backed in).

Mach-E would be connecting to the wrong pedestal.

 

[jhm]

I view transportation as analogous to moving data packets on a communication network. The main difference is that we're moving atoms instead of bits. For something like gas/diesel stations, the "communication" interface is so simple that it invites a competitive marketplace. Supercharging differs in that it involves more advanced technology that's difficult to replicate, including but not limited to:

1) Advanced liquid cooling
2) Mass modular production and installation of an entire chunk of chargers in one go (Tesla started doing this last year)
3) Integration between batteries and range estimates and thus route planning, then further integrated across whole fleet for global optimization (as discussed by Drew Baglino on last earnings call)
4) Using a payment app for automatic handshakes (gas station companies could've done this but they're clueless)
5) Integration of the entire fleet with power supply from virtual power plants and autobidder for further optimization
6) Standardization of the best charging protocol that squeezes maximum utility out of each charger (analogous to TCP/IP protocol dominance in internet)


I agree that these network effect advantage are not obvious, which another reason I believe this company is so undervalued. Awesome but currently misunderstood business units --> TSLA profits

These are all great. But you are overlooking that road transportation exists on a mostly 2D surface wherein geographical distance and ground speed limit feasible paths. For example, if I live in Atlanta, GA, building out nodes in China or Catalonia does not add to destinations feasible for my EV. Moreover, adding a node to Canton, GA, may be helpful and convenient, but it does not really expand the number of destinations for my car because there is already sufficient coverage all around the greater Atlanta area.

Avoid analogies, and get back to first principles.