Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WarpedOne]

I agree with the slow and steady sentiment,

Perspective falacy.

 

[mongo]

Other (non)news being reported this morning: The aborted Beta 10.3 roll out has been assigned a NHTSA recall number. Tesla has a recall on 11.7k cars (all models) due to a bug in the 2021.36.5.2 software (Beta 10.3) that could cause unneeded emergency braking. OTA fix is already released (rollback and Beta 10.3.1). Letters to (still?) impacted owners go out Dec 28th.

 

[HG Wells]

Found some cash.
Bought 45 chairs at 1155.

 

[Boomer19]

I cheated and went into margin buying at the last 570 we had. still paying that $2,200 monthly margin cost on that 3.75% interest. I have never been so happy to pay interest on an investment that just hit the +100% milestone today. The positive effect is that I am working to pay slowly that margin back and once I have free cash to invest into TSLA, the stock price will be in the $2,000s

3.75, ouch
you should be able to get that down, or transfer

my rates 1.57 if below 100k and
1.07 from 100k-1m

although i havent used margin

 

[Singuy]

I can understand Elon wants to talk down the stock price. It’s been going up way too fast, causing all kinds of issues:

• Elon is receiving a lot of flak for getting $20 billion richer every day. Being the richest person on earth, now by far, causes many to expect him to solve all the world’s problems. He must feel the pressure, even if he doesn’t show it.
• Elon has to pay a lot more taxes on his options, possible forcing him to sell more shares than he would like to.
• Tesla needs to recruits tens of thousands of workers for Giga Berlin and Giga Austin but is not able to offer them attractive options package at these high prices.
• Tesla needs to keep talent onboard and that is getting harder when people have option packages that are now worth millions, making early retirement from a demanding job more attractive.

So no, there will not be a stock split soon. And no, the deferred tax allowance will not be recognized soon.

I think it would be a good thing if the stock moves back to 1000, to start a steady ascent from there, bringing it to maybe 1200 again next spring, 1500-2000 in 2 to 3 years time and 2500 in 2025. That’s better for everyone, excepts for those wanting to cash out now. But who would want to do that? We are all HODL’ers, aren’t we? A quick rise to 1800 and drop back to 1000 isn’t helping anyone. Too many people are buying calls (the surest way to lose your money) or dipping into margin to buy shares, which is a recipe for disaster when the stock shoots up too much and then crashes.

A slow but steady rise is the best way forward.

Many productive ways to knock down the stock price vs tweeting it away. Raising capital or him cashing out to pay taxes could be some. Now someone else dump a few million shares running away with the profits that Tesla could have taken, or Musk himself.

 

[bro1999]

Now that stock is dropping less people will want to buy it looking for a bottom


Imagine if Enterprise wants to ink a 100K deal
Hertz Hertz better hurry Hertz

Won't be surprised if it immediately turns green at open. It's been creeping up ever since that dump earlier. The Hertz deal really doesn't matter that much to Tesla's bottom line....it was more just a PR boost (i.e. if the deal were to fall through, it's not like Tesla would need to scramble to find 100,000 buyers of the would-be Hertz cars). Once people digest Elon's tweet, they'll realize nothing has really changed to Tesla's future earnings potential and the stock will probably bounce right back to where it closed last night.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

I think it would be a good thing if the stock moves back to 1000, to start a steady ascent from there, bringing it to maybe 1200 again next spring, 1500-2000 in 2 to 3 years time and 2500 in 2025. That’s better for everyone,

Says the man who is already retired from previous fast run-ups. .

There are thousands of LT investors who didn't have the funds to accumulate like many of the posters here. Don't get me wrong, I am thrilled for everyone here who has become wealthy. It's been a wonderful ride and I cheered for you all. However, many of the now-wealthy were well-off, well paid or successful investors before Tesla. We all benefit from your wisdom, thank you so very, very much. Said wisdom helped many of us hold through the down-times.

Those of us on the lower-income scale have sacrificed enormously to stay in TSLA in order to be financially free as well. I have fought the FUD, I have done what I could since the mid-70's to promote renewables. The first ground-source heat pump in the US was developed by my father in 1976, so it's been a life-long fight for me.
I have been HODL since 2014 and I am approx 30% from joining "the Club". I want in.

One can make the argument that it is better for the company to rise more slowly, but I didn't hear that in 2020, just sayin'.
Thanks, Fred for all you and the moderators do to make this thread run smooth. Much appreciated.

 

[2daMoon]

3.75, ouch
you should be able to get that down, or transfer

my rates 1.57 if below 100k and
1.07 from 100k-1m

although i havent used margin

Who are you using?

 

[SmokyPeat]

3.75, ouch
you should be able to get that down, or transfer

my rates 1.57 if below 100k and
1.07 from 100k-1m

although i havent used margin

I just negotiated my margin rate down to 1.5% from 3.75% yesterday. I was also paying about $2200 in interest monthly. Could have done a little better by moving everything over to IBKR, but I like my broker and didn't want to complicate things. I was prepared to transfer if they were unwilling to come down to under 2% though.

 

[hacer]

The big fear is the counting. It seems very complicated when a mix of a large variety of options and underlying stock is involved. Do you know of a program/spreadsheet that would correctly calculate the new basis across trades of varying size? All the examples I have found involve very basic stock transactions.

@SN_8 Recommended tradelog. I have no experience with it, but you may want to have a look.

 

[transpondster]

Some model 3 tweaks

SR+ is not just the model 3, range increase to 267
LR range increase to 358

SR+ increase most likely comes form LFP 60kWh pack
LR 82 kWh battery wasn't uprated in NA Q2, when in Europe we had increase from 580 to 614 km WLTP

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol....desperate covering at the close and into AH has turned into a casual premarket selloff. Riiiiiight.

Buying calls at open? Selling BPS?

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't really care if we head back to $1k or whatever at this point, but I wish Elon wouldn't mess with the SP like this. I'm 75% sure it won't matter though. Anyone with 1/4th of a brain realizes this Hertz thing is basically a done deal.

Lol....desperate covering at the close and into AH has turned into a casual premarket selloff. Riiiiiight.

Buying calls at open? Selling BPS?

I might throw a little yolo money at calls when we open. TBD.

 

[22522]

Here is a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) video to Lisa Stansfield and Larry Adler (harmonica) performing the Gershwin song You Can't take that away from Me. Credit to a Swedish DJ and Lindy Hop historian who searched for, found and shared a lot of beautiful stuff. This is from Broadway Night at Herrang Dance Camp in 2003

If life is a collection of moments, fear of missing out is well founded.
In this play, the woman is playing the role of Tesla. Someone ends up with the girl. The moments (that all together could be called the struggle) are a part of the "memories of all that."

Yes, they can take those away from you, with fear uncertainty and doubt. Maybe for a good life FOMO conquers FUD?
Anyway, the woman is playing the role of Tesla.

Oh, "Play You Can't Take That Away From Me by Lisa Stansfield" as a voice command will obtain the audio portion in a Tesla with connectivity.

And now for the obligatory Venn Diagram

Yes, the other companies are a little off-center. That means scared.

[Edit: Maybe this should be labeled Today's Market Action as Interpretive Dance. Or maybe more than just today's.]

 

[jkirkwood001]

I would not mind if Elon gave a little rebate to Hertz and sold them the car at the price before the last increase, maybe 2k. I would understand that in a large order with a lot of similar configurations, economies of scales from same configuration could be made. However, I think it is better to stay true to all the current customers who have been buying many Teslas, repeatedly and funded the mission, and who never got a rebate. As a share holder I want Hertz to pay as much as possible to improve Tesla margins.

There's no need for Tesla to give them a discount. It's simple supply and demand - Tesla has so much demand, there's no incentive to discount. And after the last few days, do you really think Hertz has any leverage to walk away from the deal? They've already got ads FCS! Their SP and credit line would tank. Suck it up, Hertz: sign here at full price to at least guarantee the inventory.

 

[hacer]

Combined Charging System (what we used to call the Frankenplug connector back in the day).

It is that hideously bulky, cumbersome idiotic electrical connector designed by the CharIn committee. Seriously, only something design by a committee could ever be this bad. The EU did mandate by law that all publicly accessible chargers use it, so Tesla had (has) no choice about it in Europe. Tragically there are members on TMC who think it would be a good for idea for Tesla to scrap their far superior elegant, efficient connector used throughout the U.S. with that beast just because all of the other OEMs standardized on it. I like to imagine those same members want to see Teslas having higher drag coefficients, uglier cars, fake engine-noises, tons of useless buttons etc. too so Tesla can come down to the level of all the other OEMs.

 

[wtlloyd]

No contract actually signed means leverages are still being sought. Hertz runs ads, says to Tesla "Look at how much benefit to Tesla in signing this deal with us...Musk replies "Look at the recognition and appreciation your association with us brings you".
All in the public forum and where the marketplace will reward/punish appropriately.
Elon is pushing back against Hertz, not trying to influence TSLA.

 

[hacer]

If there is significant time left until expiration you'll essentially be giving away the time value so not a good idea.

Edit: So if you are to to this you should wait until close to expiry so that any time value left in the option is negligable.

In addition to the loss of time value (if there is any which there may not be for very deep ITM) you also lose the leverage they provide. The cash that you will spend to exercise them could be used to buy additional shares while keeping the calls, increasing your leverage. This is not a drawback if you want to de-leverage. An advantage to early exercise is that it starts the long-term gains clock on the stock sooner.

 

[mongo]

I don't really care if we head back to $1k or whatever at this point, but I wish Elon wouldn't mess with the SP like this. I'm 75% sure it won't matter though. Anyone with 1/4th of a brain realizes this Hertz thing is basically a done deal.


I might throw a little yolo money at calls when we open. TBD.

If by "done deal" you mean on Hertz's side, then sure. However, if you mean between Tesla and Hertz then no, there is no deal on Tesla's side, nor will there be. If Hertz wants cars, they need to order them just like everybody else.

Of course, Elon went and used the word "yet" in his Tweet so I could be wrong...

 

[Nocturnal]

If by "done deal" you mean on Hertz's side, then sure. However, if you mean between Tesla and Hertz then no, there is no deal on Tesla's side, nor will there be. If Hertz wants cars, they need to order them just like everybody else.

Of course, Elon went and used the word "yet" in his Tweet so I could be wrong...

It would look pretty bad for Tesla as well if the deal falls apart. Far worse for Hertz of course.

For sure they are ironing out the final details. I'd bet my recent gains that there is a finished contract (approved by legal) waiting on a few small issues.