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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
CNBC covering Tesla today, top headline.....
Lol!
Lol!
Phew, for a few minutes there I worried that I'd have to do some actual work today.
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Not to me: Those are calm, untroubled waters. If it were TSLAQ they'd be in quite the maelstrom, sinking with no hope of surviving.
I sold today at $1200. I’ll be back in a couple of weeks.
Nobody has ever failed at timing the market, right?
Nobody has ever failed at timing the market, right?
What's funny is, it's the other way around. Hertze hasn't signed a contract with Tesla.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
In my opinion this action now is the stock catching up to the fundamentals. The gross margins, growth and operating leverage are just that good.
Let's look at 2025. Conservative scenario:
--> 4.5 million vehicle deliveries
* All 4 factories at scale
* Supply constraints eased
--> 37% gross margins
* 4680s hitting pack-level cost <$80/kWh
* Front and rear casting on all production lines
* Raging demand causing effectively a bidding war
* Plaid S/X and Cybertruck scaling
* Eliminating long-haul shipping costs including EU import tariffs, ceasing The Wave in general
* New paint shop
* Improving first-pass quality and thus factory efficiency and warranty costs
* And more.
(At $47k average selling price this basically means an average margin increase of just $3.3k from today. Considering this list of improvements queued up, frankly I struggle to see a realistic way gross margins don't bloat to 40-50% by 2025, unless Tesla cuts prices so much that the order backlog extends 3-4 years and scalpers just buy up most of the production to flip it on the used market for an easy arbitrage profit.)
--> Opex grows to over $10 Billion
* About 70% increase over 2021.
* Pandemic-related inefficiencies will have worn off by 2025.
* Internal enterprise software will only get better over time.
--> Energy gross profit merely $8 billion off 70 GWh deployed
* About $100 profit/kWh deployed including Autobidder and any home solar upsell
--> Exclude FSD and other software contributions to margins beyond what Tesla already achieved today, solar roof, insurance, any major new products.
Operating earnings per share after tax approximately $50.
$2,500 is only 50x P/E, which is ludicrously low considering they'd likely be on track to more than triple profits by 2030 to $150/share. All still EXCLUDING any robotaxi cash cow and even any significant FSD subscription profits. No substantial solar profits, no major new products ready. This much earnings power just making and selling cars and batteries.
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ibkr
pro not lite
pro has better rates. lite has 0 commissions and 2.57% margin
pro commissions are minuscule anyway. i pay about $1 for stock and options trades
obv with options the more contracts you accumulate the more the commission.
but to me getting a good execution rather than pay .5-.10 or more on every contract x #of contracts # 100 multiplier is a better route.
ibkr and fidelity generally best “all around” online brokerages but some others have pros and cons. webull looks interesting but haven’t dug too deep into that yet. if robinhood mugs people on stock, imagine what they’re stealing on options? i’d avoid players like that at all costs.
admittedly when starting out it’s not materially worse. easy UI-UX, small trades. a few nickels, then quarters, then 10s of dollars as your portfolio and trading grows. no thanks
nice work…sometimes a long wait on call queue is worth it
Hm, after all this drama, when the final hertz deal is announced, will this be counted as new stockboosting news and give us back the premarket -5%..? 
jhm
Well-Known Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
$1207 down to $1195 took about a million shares changing hands in 3 minutes. Not sure how much of that would be naked short shares from MM's, but even 1/4 of that volume would be -$300M on a ledger.
Interesting to see such premarket tactics today, because it's not gonna resonate with anyone but smaller retail shareholders. I can't imagine hedge funders were buying this idea of rabid buying turning to selloff overnight.
So at least we can learn today that MM's feel there's a significant retail aspect to this momentum. Either that or it was their only desperate move. I doubt that tho since is cost A LOT.
Interesting to see such premarket tactics today, because it's not gonna resonate with anyone but smaller retail shareholders. I can't imagine hedge funders were buying this idea of rabid buying turning to selloff overnight.
So at least we can learn today that MM's feel there's a significant retail aspect to this momentum. Either that or it was their only desperate move. I doubt that tho since is cost A LOT.
And looks like the SP bounced hard off of the closing price for the time being. Lol
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You invested in the wrong company.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
The fact we could all "live" with $840 for a while pretty comfortably is a very good sign, I'd say.
Anybody here who would have thrown $840 away now when it was $550 six months ago? I didn't think so.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I wonder if they would have been as upset if Elon instead created the Design Institute of Computing and Science
qz.com
In one tweet, Elon Musk captures the everyday sexism faced by women in STEM
It raises questions about the work culture at Tesla and SpaceX.
qz.com
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