Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

To both retail and institutions, Tesla is just a meme stock that rallies every now and then.

Um, okay if you really believe that then you aren't paying attention to the reality of Tesla as a company. Possibly some retails and institutions think that, but certainly not many any longer. Tesla has proven itself to those who are paying attention, and the recent rally upwards is evidence of that IMHO.

 

[lafrisbee]

My dad who is a good historic buff explained the Chinese poem Musk posted.

The poem originated from the three kingdoms. King Cao Cao always hated his brother. His brother is known to be great poet and can write a poem after making 7 steps. So Cao Cao made a bet with the brother and said if you can make a poem after 7 steps then I wouldn't kill you. So after 7 steps the brother created this poem.

The meaning is that the bean is being boiled while the skin of the bean is used as fuel for the fire. As the bean boils, it is crying because of this. The bean and skin are suppose to be together, so why is there such a hurry to boil the bean?

The brother is saying how we are family and can sprout together, but instead there's such a hurry to use the skin of the bean to kill the bean.

After hearing this poem, Cao Cao shed some tears and decided to not kill his brother.

My dad thinks this is a message for the US government. How they are hanging Tesla out to dry even though they are on the same side. So why have such a hurry to destroy Tesla? Probably a response to the bill specifically have provision preventing Tesla from getting tax credit even if they unionize.

I think Your Dad is a bright fellah.

 

[coolmanfever]

But do you? For sure? Didn't you feel the same way last week, which is why you still have a load of cash to invest?

Good luck timing the market. I'm perfectly content to buy TSLA whenever I come into some investable funds. Buy low, buy high. It's worked out well for me so far and I am 100% confident it will work out for me in the long run.

but right now 1100 per share just too high. Who is buying at 1100 or above right now? Thumb up if you are

 

[ZenMan]

Um, okay if you really believe that then you aren't paying attention to the reality of Tesla as a company. Possibly some retails and institutions think that, but certainly not many any longer. Tesla has proven itself to those who are paying attention, and the recent rally upwards is evidence of that IMHO.

Please stop feeding the troll.

 

[dl003]

In my opinion, part of the reason the stock dropped was because Elon hinted at it being a bit out of control. Maybe he'll defer splitting if it keeps running up on FOMO. Maybe he'll tweet something else that rattles traders. With these possible scenarios in mind, traders may feel it's time to take some profit instead of testing the man himself.

 

[henchman24]

To say this is only retail FOMO is wrong. Fundamentals and estimates are rising across the board. I think they we're getting a bit frothy, but on the bullish side, there is plenty of evidence to support ~1100-1200 as a current valuation (if you believe in >10 eps for 22). Street isn't quiet there on consensus, but at the rate they are increasing their estimates it should be there by the end of the year. The more bullish analysts are ahead of even the current valuation. No doubt there is some gamma squeeze and trading happening... but that's ~100ish of this rise. If we were at 1050, I would say the street has come to a solid consensus of where the stock should be. IMO still low as they are missing how big 2022 is going to be, but they are always late to the party.

 

[JRP3]

I have an S on order as well. I ordered one early this year, I’ve had estimated delivery dates for 6/20-6/30, then changed to July, August etc and now it’s January 15th.

Interesting, I guess the "Dec" delivery estimate on the website isn't accurate. I've been wondering how they are still showing Dec. delivery for the 3 LR as well, maybe that's not accurate either. I've been waiting to order until I saw a delivery estimate going into next year but maybe I should just pull the trigger now.

 

[hacer]

Investing in Tesla requires an ability to discern signal from noise, an ability to evaluate evidence and make reasoned decisions.

Investing in Tesla doesn’t require suffering adolescent FUD.

So put StrongGuy on ignore then?

 

[StrongGuy]

Actually, it looks like we're seeing pretty good support here in the mid-to-upper $1100s, and it got into the $1220s before retracing a bit, so I'd say Gary didn't call this one. It's even possible we never drop below $1100 again, in which case Gary missed the opportunity to stay in if he sold at that level.

And I actually think there HAS been a change in market sentiment. Notice we're not crashing back to $800 where we were a few weeks ago. It could always fall more of course, but the support has been there all day today so far in the mid $1100s, which is still a significant increase from a few weeks ago. Too early to say what's going to happen here.

I highly doubt with a market cap this big that retail FOMO is going to cause such a substantial move in the price in such a short time without some big whales with deep pockets getting in.

It's just one day so far. It took a few months for TSLA to drop from 900 to 550ish. We'll see what tomorrow has in store for us.
I agree that big whale apes are going in along with retail apes, but I believe both don't actually care about TSLA's fundamentals and are only in it for the ride.

Short term memory problems? Maybe listen to the other StrongGuy who said the following less than 24 hours ago. Plenty of short term movements make little sense and take us on the forum here by surprise, but the long term trend are as solid as the company fundamentals. This is no "meme stock" and if you think it is you should probably sell and stay out of the stock.

When I said "eliminated any doubts", I was talking from my perspective, not the general market's perspective.

 

[Yuri_G]

There were some ridiculous predictions like $5,000 per share this rally.
There was another guy who said that the market is suddenly realizing Tesla's true value, so large dips are out of the question now when Tesla does $15+ EPS in 2022.
I said that this rise is due to retail FOMO, not due to change in market opinions. I said I would attempt to day-trade when it hit $1700-2200 and buy back at $1000. I got the $1700-2200 part wrong. Elon's tweet popped the bubble at $1200. There is a lot of resistance at $1200, so it's unlikely we breach that price for a long time.

Thanks for posting concrete numbers. I'll be sure to bump this when we pass 1200 in the next couple of weeks.

 

[dl003]

To say this is only retail FOMO is wrong. Fundamentals and estimates are rising across the board. I think they we're getting a bit frothy, but on the bullish side, there is plenty of evidence to support ~1100-1200 as a current valuation. Street isn't quiet there on consensus, but at the rate they are increasing their estimates it should be there by the end of the year. The more bullish analysts are ahead of even the current valuation. No doubt there is some gamma squeeze and trading happening... but that's ~100ish of this rise. If we were at 1050, I would say the street has come to a solid consensus of where the stock should be. IMO still low as they are missing how big 2022 is going to be, but they are always late to the party.

To clarify, I'm not saying this is retail FOMO only but once the gamma train is in motion it doesn't take much for things to get truly out of control. He chose his timing precisely as we just crossed 1,200 and not before. Coincidence? We've seen this played out many times before and the aftermath was never pretty.

 

[Todd Burch]

It's just one day so far. It took a few months for TSLA to drop from 900 to 550ish. We'll see what tomorrow has in store for us.
I agree that big whale apes are going in along with retail apes, but I believe both don't actually care about TSLA's fundamentals and are only in it for the ride.

That's nothing new. The market is FULL of people that don't care about fundamentals and go along for the ride. They're called day traders or short-term traders, and it seems like you classify yourself among them.

Those of us who are *investors* have been holding for a long time (since the IPO for me). It's worked out pretty dang well for us so far, and we don't have to stress over when to buy or sell.

 

[lafrisbee]

I'd really appreciate it if normal members would stop replying to the person I have put on ignore

Now you've confused even me.
What's a "normal" member?

 

[deffu]

How do you know that tweet popped the bubble? Maybe the recall for FSD beta is what popped the bubble. Or maybe it is something else we don't have any idea about... Maybe Elon sold his shares to cover taxes and that is what "popped" the bubble...

Retails don’t move the stock. Even for past events including gme it’s funds v.s funds. Retails r nearly a trigger. I do believe the market is reevaluating tsla. Ppl r just caught in surprise that tsla still has so much energy built in at 1t. He is still like 15 years old although he has outgrown most adults. Hopefully the sp cools down a little bit. I believe musks options r structured that lower stock price translates to lower tax rate

 

[Mengy]

Please stop feeding the troll.

Honestly I like hearing more bearish opinions on the stock from time to time. Even if I don't agree with them or the arguments don't make sense.

It's easy to say the recent rally is purely due to FOMO, but the Q3 numbers were outstanding and there is every indication the Q4 numbers will be much better still. So what happens to the PE Ratio and the stock price after Q4 is reported in? If the stock rallies again, is that simply due to FOMO still? Or is it because Tesla is expected to now break quarterly numbers over and over again as the two new Giga factories ramp up, thereby increasing both production volumes AND margins simultaneously?

TSLA traded fairly flat from January until October of this year, even as production increased, revenue grew, and margins got better. I'd sooner say the rally is catching up to the flatness of the year rather than something like FOMO.

But yes, I do enjoy hearing how bears justify their positions and outlooks on Tesla. It reminds me that not everyone is as forward thinking as I am when it comes to investing into TSLA.

 

[henchman24]

To clarify, I'm not saying this is retail FOMO only. He chose his timing precisely as we just crossed 1,200 and not before. Coincidence? We've seen this played out many times before and the aftermath was never pretty.

Undoubtedly there will be a pullback at some point and 1200 here seems just as good as spot as any (the gamma squeeze has significantly eased today which further supports the pullback there). When the pull back happens, I expect an overcorrection from the market... to me the key number is 1050. Below that, we start getting below normal valuations for Tesla. By normal I mean the valuations held from April to September on the stock... so recent normal. An overcorrection to say 950-975 would be an easy time to buy. If it stays above 1150, I'd say odds are high Tesla has grown into that valuation by the end of December by street consensus.

 

[GOVA]

...
Hope you learned your lesson. The market isn't rational at all and will never 'get' Tesla. I called the top at 1700-2200, but I think Elon's tweet popped it much sooner than expected. Still a lot better than people here who think it was just going to keep on climbing. Just LOL.

Thanks. Sold my stake just in time based on your knowledge.

Now, can we chart some stats based off this forum? I'd like to see the counts for most ignored dude per month/year. If not, I am willing to help.

Edit: Forgot the roll eyes icon.

 

[Dig deeper]

Ignore feature is quite useful. Let's not feed the troll.

 

[dl003]

Undoubtedly there will be a pullback at some point and 1200 here seems just as good as spot as any (the gamma squeeze has significantly eased today which further supports the pullback there). When the pull back happens, I expect an overcorrection from the market... to me the key number is 1050. Below that, we start getting below normal valuations for Tesla. By normal I mean the valuations held from April to September on the stock... so recent normal. An overcorrection to say 950-975 would be an easy time to buy. If it stays above 1150, I'd say odds are high Tesla has grown into that valuation by the end of December by street consensus.

Thanks. Your projection is largely in line with mine. I have 1,120 as the short term test of valuation and 1,040 as the bottom. The squeeze easing is truly a blessing. It's nerve wrecking seeing your account skyrocketing everyday, wondering when the crash is going to be. I bet it concerns him as well as his employees might not be able to focus on their job.

 

[Speedr117]

Retails don’t move the stock. Even for past events including gme it’s funds v.s funds. Retails r nearly a trigger. I do believe the market is reevaluating tsla. Ppl r just caught in surprise that tsla still has so much energy built in at 1t. He is still like 15 years old although he has outgrown most adults. Hopefully the sp cools down a little bit. I believe musks options r structured that lower stock price translates to lower tax rate

Its taxed on the difference between the strike price and the current stock price, so the higher the price, the more taxes paid. Since he's already said he'll sell shares to pay the taxes, he really doesn't want it to be high. Of course, he has a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders (and his employees), so he can't tank the stock for his personal benefit, so I think like others have said, he just doesn't want a bubble to form/get too big. Plus, for all long term investors, a slow, steady rise is always preferred to spikes and crashes...