Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StrongGuy]

Honestly I like hearing more bearish opinions on the stock from time to time. Even if I don't agree with them or the arguments don't make sense.

It's easy to say the recent rally is purely due to FOMO, but the Q3 numbers were outstanding and there is every indication the Q4 numbers will be much better still. So what happens to the PE Ratio and the stock price after Q4 is reported in? If the stock rallies again, is that simply due to FOMO still? Or is it because Tesla is expected to now break quarterly numbers over and over again as the two new Giga factories ramp up, thereby increasing both production volumes AND margins simultaneously?

TSLA traded fairly flat from January until October of this year, even as production increased, revenue grew, and margins got better. I'd sooner say the rally is catching up to the flatness of the year rather than something like FOMO.

But yes, I do enjoy hearing how bears justify their positions and outlooks on Tesla. It reminds me that not everyone is as forward thinking as I am when it comes to investing into TSLA.

I hear you. I think TSLA's growth is outstanding.
What I don't agree on is that the general market understands this right now.

Thanks. Your projection is largely in line with mine. I have 1,120 as the short term test of valuation and 1,040 as the bottom. The squeeze easing is truly a blessing. It's nerve wrecking seeing your account skyrocketing everyday, wondering when the crash is going to be. I bet it concerns him as well as his employees might not be able to focus on their job.

This is reasonable. I hope it falls to the 800-range.

 

[vwman111]

Not siding with our new participant on this forum...but would like to point out that there is another thread where the entire thread is currently praying for a swift and dramatic pullback.

 

[Thomas Edison]

it’s a good day in this thread to sit back and eat some popcorn.

 

[MartinAustin]

We're half-way through Tuesday, and Friday's close was $1114 I think. TSLA is $1166 right now... up 4.6% from there. I'll take it

 

[dl003]

Not siding with our new participant on this forum...but would like to point out that there is another thread where the entire thread is currently praying for a swift and dramatic pullback.

 

[Rammstein]

Hey, I'm working weekends, granted, as little as possible, just so I can have time to watch the ticker. Thank you very much.

Also, it was implied that those employees were probably richer than me. So by wanting them to keep working I would also be telling myself that I should be working ... or something.

Haha yeah I’m working my butt off too. Travelling the world eating and putting it on YouTube.

So much of my wealth is tied up into Tesla. I wish there was something I could do with some of my gains. I’ve always wanted a Ferrari but gas cars are against my religion. Been waiting for my forever delayed Model X Plaid but I doubt I’ll get it within the next 2 years. Same with Roadster. My house is paid off (thanks Spiegel). Thought about rental properties but real estate here in SW Florida pretty much doubled in price since Covid. I don’t like any other stocks. So I sadly sit here, watching my account balance grow

Go to the mall and get yourself an overpriced sweater.

 

[Joe F]

For someone trying to sell the notion that retail FOMO can move an average of 2100 shares per second is a strong indication that there's an ulterior motive at play.

Ignoring the fact that the Hertz announcement signals a validation of Tesla as the leader in the EV space is either a failure to accept facts, or an intentional attempt to aggravate those gathered here who know better.

 

[pz1975]

It's funny when someone shows up here with <1% of the knowledge of Tesla/TSLA compared with many posters here who have consumed everything Tesla/TSLA for almost 10 years and act like they know more than everyone else. It's happened many many times before (both bears and bulls). They always end up leaving when they finally perceive their own ignorance. Classic Dunning-Kruger.

 

[StrongGuy]

For someone trying to sell the notion that retail FOMO can move an average of 2100 shares per second is a strong indication that there's an ulterior motive at play.

Ignoring the fact that the Hertz announcement signals a validation of Tesla as the leader in the EV space is either a failure to accept facts, or an intentional attempt to aggravate those gathered here who know better.

Retail and institutional apes, not just retail.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't know about you guys but I'm enjoying the entertainment from our new Nostradamus................meanwhile in Tesla land

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455581376674160644

 

[hacer]

Its taxed on the difference between the strike price and the current stock price, so the higher the price, the more taxes paid. Since he's already said he'll sell shares to pay the taxes, he really doesn't want it to be high. Of course, he has a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders (and his employees), so he can't tank the stock for his personal benefit, so I think like others have said, he just doesn't want a bubble to form/get too big. Plus, for all long term investors, a slow, steady rise is always preferred to spikes and crashes...

Let n be the number of shares that Elon has options to buy. (n=22,862,050 expiring soon)
Let p be the stock price when he exercises these options. Yet unknown
Let t be the tax rate that Elon must pay on the gains. t ~ 0.53 federal + CA (Elon's estimate)
Let b be the strike price (b=$6.24 for options expiring soon).

Elon will need n[(p-b)t+b] dollars to pay for the shares and taxes. He would need to sell m of those n newly acquired shares to generate that cash.

m = n[t + b/(p-b)]

So the number of shares he must sell actually goes DOWN as the stock price increases, but just a little. It is nearly fixed about ~12.3 million shares.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think the Hertz deal is huge for Tesla. Free advertisement and lots of potential customers can try out a Tesla at Hertz.
The problem is that I think you're looking at this too logically. Retail apes do not think like you. They think 100k cars = good. Other apes buy TSLA so I Ape buy TSLA.
In fact, I think Elon's tweet shouldn't be considered bearish at all, since selling all cars at full price is a sign of strength, not weakness. The fact that that tweet popped the bubble is further proof that retail apes don't give a damn about Tesla's balance sheets. They follow other apes, not fundamentals.

So you're saying you're an Ape...got it.

 

[BitJam]

I feel like Buffy the Vampire Slayer.

Not because we're both fighting evil hordes of demons and blood sucking vampires unleashed from the pits of Hell.

But because, like Buffy, I'm a stakeholder!

 

[Curt Renz]

I see no point in a “contract” between Hertz and Tesla, if there is no fleet discount. Hertz announced its initial order of 100,000 Teslas, perhaps more, between now and the end of next year. They are already taking deliveries and trumpeting their availability as rentals through Tom Brady ads. Hertz apparently orders Teslas in the same manner as any customer, just in greater numbers. That would also likely be the case for Avis, which gave a subtle hint in its conference call.

Elon’s tweet appears to have been an attempt to remind folks that Tesla does not offer discounts, even to Hertz, while also emphasizing production constraints. Perhaps his understated manner of tweeting was to imply he is not a stock pumper, while he receives criticism of his wealth from CNN and the World Food Program, and Congress is deliberating laws regarding climate change and EV tax credits.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I see no point in a “contract” between Hertz and Tesla, if there is no fleet discount

I could see an agreement where Tesla trains Hertz how to maintain and repair their fleet so they don't have to take them to local service centers.

 

[jhm]

Let n be the number of shares that Elon has options to buy. (n=22,862,050 expiring soon)
Let p be the stock price when he exercises these options. Yet unknown
Let t be the tax rate that Elon must pay on the gains. t ~ 0.53 federal + CA (Elon's estimate)
Let b be the strike price (b=$6.24 for options expiring soon).

Elon will need n[(p-b)t+b] dollars to pay for the shares and taxes. He would need to sell m of those n newly acquired shares to generate that cash.

m = n[t + b/(p-b)]

So the number of shares he must sell actually goes DOWN as the stock price increases, but just a little. It is nearly fixed about ~12.3 million shares.

He should have exercised his options a month ago. Waiting to the last minute to exercise is what you do to maximize your tax liability. If he wanted to minimized the ordinary tax liability at exercise, he should have exercised back when the stock price was low. Elon should understand this quite well.

Correction: He wants to minimize ordinary taxable income at exercise, not cap gains which happens only when he sells his stock.

 

[jerry33]

Honestly I like hearing more bearish opinions on the stock from time to time. Even if I don't agree with them or the arguments don't make sense.

After you've heard the same arguments for eight or nine years, it gets really tiresome. Those arguments hold even less water now then they did nine years ago.

 

[Pezpunk]

being down about $200k today would bum me out more if i weren't up about $2 million over the last week.

 

[NicoV]

Why would it go up when 99% of people think Tesla will fail? Makes no sense.

1% of the people is more than enough to hold all of the Tesla shares at any price.

 

[jerry33]

I see no point in a “contract” between Hertz and Tesla, if there is no fleet discount. Hertz announced its initial order of 100,000 Teslas, perhaps more, between now and the end of next year. They are already taking deliveries and trumpeting their availability as rentals through Tom Brady ads. Hertz apparently orders Teslas in the same manner as any customer, just in greater numbers. That would also likely be the case for Avis, which gave a subtle hint in its conference call.

The only reason to have a contract would be delivery dates.