Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BitJam]

I think Elon has overestimated transparency of German government and its independence from vested interests.

However Federal government and other states (Landes) seem to be keen on sabotaging Tesla. As far as I understand German economy blurs boundaries between corporations, investment banks, and state, and as far as I remember major institutional shareholders in legacy ICE companies include both major banks and local (state) governments. Add to that political role of the unions which is similar to UAW relationships with Big 3 and Democratic Party.

So far so good in Berlin IMO. Yes, there is some unfortunate extra delay but many of the negatives will become positives after the factory is up and running. For example when legacy ICE starts to flounder, the government and the people will be able to look at their shiny new Tesla factory as the path to the future.

 

[mongo]

There's LOTS of options trading where a trader might wish for a pullback other than having sold covered calls... for example they want to get better premiums on a bull put spread they plan to sell without having to sell near an ATH. If you want even more examples the other thread awaits you

@Tyler34 was responding to vwman111's post claiming the whole options thread was hoping for a pullback (at least I assume that was the thread referenced) .

Not siding with our new participant on this forum...but would like to point out that there is another thread where the entire thread is currently praying for a swift and dramatic pullback.

This is incorrect as those selling puts or put spreads may prefer not having a strong pullback. Further, some following that thread have a lot of shares without option against them.
So @Tyler34's pushback was valid.

 

[hacer]

Higher price is better but it's a multivariable equation and contrary to Knightshade it isn't a negligible difference between $1000 and $2000 share price.

(ignore the 42% in the text, I used the 53% another poster mentioned and didn't change the descriptor)


View attachment 728642

I don't consider 33,525 shares a rounding error.

Well when you have over 10 million shares while you might not think of 33,525 shares as a rounding error, it's still not something to get too bothered about. Certainly bothered enough you would analyze it and make the right choice, but not enough to sweat the exact day's price. Plus we don't know it will get all the way to $2k/share by expiration although it easily could.

Consider an account with a value of $10 million. Do you freak out if it fluctuates by $33.5k on a given day? My answer is no, it's no big deal - sort of like a rounding error. Ask me how I know

 

[jerry33]

How come tx factory would be up running sooner than Berlin

How come the Berlin Airport took years to build?

 

[dhanson865]

Do you freak out if it fluctuates by $33.5k on a given day? My answer is no, it's no big deal - sort of like a rounding error. Ask me how I know

I don't freak out about fluctuations on days I'm not buying or selling. But I do pay attention more so when selling than buying.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This tax debate is just riveting!

(<-- that's me purposely skiing into a tree)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

How come the Berlin Airport took years to build?

Because it's in the German worker's interest for it to take longer and there's no massive need for it to have been done quickly. Lets not get all dramatic about a couple week's delay, the US can be far worse. Hell, SolarCity moved it's service headquarters to Nevada then two months later the governor and state legislature proceeded to sabotage the entire residential solar industry, essentially kill SolarCity and stalling nationwide momentum.

When the marketplace calls for Germans to move, they move. I always point to December 2011 when incentive hit just right and Germany installed 3GW of solar in ONE MONTH. We barely do that in one quarter 10 years later.

 

[Words of HABIT]

OMG! Thank you for posting that screenshot. I didn’t know TMC had a dark mode!!!

Sure TMC has a dark mode. All it takes is a 3% drop after a >50% run-up for the month.
While day traders are hertzing, investors are feeling great.
We should all just be glad @Curt Renz was given a much deserved day off. We know this won't last for long.

 

[adiggs]

I'm not a mod and might easily be going too far on this:

I'm seeing some posts that seem to be breaking up the investor world into us (this thread) and them (the selling options thread). Or maybe it's us (the selling options thread) and them (this thread).

Whichever - I really, really hope that goes away.


Back when we had two threads - the short and long term investor thread - there was some similar conversation now and then. Was a particular topic a short or a long term topic? Who cares - it's an investor topic. And thus were the two threads collapsed into one at some point in the past (along with a decision that this thread would no longer turn over into a new thread each year, with the turning of the calendar).

The nice thing today is that we have two threads where the smaller thread has a well enough defined theme, with enough interested people in that theme, that it can take activity away from this main thread and be active on its own (the prior long term thread never had that). This helps those with interest see more of what they want, while helping those without interest avoid the need to scroll past that content.

We should all be happy with how this has developed. We're all investors in Tesla. We all want more info and to do better with it. And getting the activity spread out this way is good for us all.

We're not two different classes of investors. Rather we're all investors with different focus to how we go about things.

 

[deffu]

Because it's in the German worker's interest for it to take longer and there's no massive need for it to have been done quickly. Lets not get all dramatic about a couple week's delay, the US can be far worse. Hell, SolarCity moved it's service headquarters to Nevada then two months later the governor and state legislature proceeded to sabotage the entire residential solar industry, essentially kill SolarCity and stalling nationwide momentum.

When the marketplace calls for Germans to move, they move. I always point to December 2011 when incentive hit just right and Germany installed 3GW of solar in ONE MONTH. We barely do that in one quarter 10 years later.

Fair I didn’t mean to point fingers at Germans. Just found out tx started later but seems it would finish sooner.

 

[deffu]

I'm not a mod and might easily be going too far on this:

I'm seeing some posts that seem to be breaking up the investor world into us (this thread) and them (the selling options thread). Or maybe it's us (the selling options thread) and them (this thread).

Whichever - I really, really hope that goes away.


Back when we had two threads - the short and long term investor thread - there was some similar conversation now and then. Was a particular topic a short or a long term topic? Who cares - it's an investor topic. And thus were the two threads collapsed into one at some point in the past (along with a decision that this thread would no longer turn over into a new thread each year, with the turning of the calendar).

The nice thing today is that we have two threads where the smaller thread has a well enough defined theme, with enough interested people in that theme, that it can take activity away from this main thread and be active on its own (the prior long term thread never had that). This helps those with interest see more of what they want, while helping those without interest avoid the need to scroll past that content.

We should all be happy with how this has developed. We're all investors in Tesla. We all want more info and to do better with it. And getting the activity spread out this way is good for us all.

We're not two different classes of investors. Rather we're all investors with different focus to how we go about things.

When sp rises too fast it always creates turmoil. When dust settles it will back to normal

 

[Curt Renz]

Elon claims that he is primarily an engineer. Yet occasionaly he will tweet something that seems to have the intent of putting a temporary lid on the TSLA share price. This could be related to Tesla's constant need to attract competent personnel, especially engineers. Since compensation packages include stock shares and options, Elon may want to be able to assure job applicants that there is still significant room for the share price to continue well upward in both the short and long terms.

 

[CLK350]

I'm not a mod and might easily be going too far on this:

I'm seeing some posts that seem to be breaking up the investor world into us (this thread) and them (the selling options thread). Or maybe it's us (the selling options thread) and them (this thread).

Whichever - I really, really hope that goes away.


Back when we had two threads - the short and long term investor thread - there was some similar conversation now and then. Was a particular topic a short or a long term topic? Who cares - it's an investor topic. And thus were the two threads collapsed into one at some point in the past (along with a decision that this thread would no longer turn over into a new thread each year, with the turning of the calendar).

The nice thing today is that we have two threads where the smaller thread has a well enough defined theme, with enough interested people in that theme, that it can take activity away from this main thread and be active on its own (the prior long term thread never had that). This helps those with interest see more of what they want, while helping those without interest avoid the need to scroll past that content.

We should all be happy with how this has developed. We're all investors in Tesla. We all want more info and to do better with it. And getting the activity spread out this way is good for us all.

We're not two different classes of investors. Rather we're all investors with different focus to how we go about things.

Yes! - to put it in a different way - the main thread is the strategic thread, the options thread is the tactical thread - you may lose a few battles (and it hurts if you are that one legion being slaughtered) but we KNOW the war will be won. The SP will reflect the juggernaut Tesla machine sooner or later. Quoting from that post :

" .. there is no stopping Tesla anymore, just delaying tactics. We don't need to do anything, however lame that sounds (for us), ...
The Elon way is to just bulldoze progress forward, which barely succeeded against all odds - with the help of a talented group of dedicated engineers and scientists. And investors ; D - As Jack Rickard (RIP) said so well already in 2019, after eloquently describing the forces against Tesla/ progress:
"..I already know how this comes out. The irony is double. It looks like the oil companies and automakers have no possibility of losing this one. In reality, they have no way to win it. One man has them totally surrounded, outnumbered, and outgunned.

Elon Musk.

Bite it bitch. "

From that recent post on my HFT analysis - however you cut it, Tesla's growth is exponential, and the SP will reflect this - regardless of the FUD or the financial types who only project from financial data without understanding the company

We can choose to reap profits from the shorts and FUDsters the easy way (longs, HODL) or the hard way (option plays), more risky but more rewarding. Either way the odds are stacked in Tesla's favor. In the options battles however it is bloody, it takes a lot more skill than HODLing - think boxing or karate, tennis, golf, fencing: untrained folks will get slaughtered by the pros.

Coincidentally, here's a good illustration: I made/ published last week in the other thread a quick bet when it was clear another Gamma Squeeze was in the works for next Monday (yesterday). That was a tactical move, which luckily (95% probability) paid off* -and as luck would have it, when the SP hit 1200 *was* the best time to cash out that bet. $3,375 will pay for a few good dinners ;D

(*) not too optimized, as I really should have scaled it in proportion to its high probability of success (then again, a moot issue since I didn't have any more available funds, being already maxxed out in shares and option calls)

 

[madodel]

Elon claims that he is primarily an engineer. Yet occasionaly he will tweet something that seems to have the intent of putting a temporary lid on the TSLA share price. This could be related to Tesla's constant need to attract competant personnel, especially engineers. Since compensation packages include stock shares and options, Elon may want to be able to assure job applicants that there is still significant room for the share price to continue well upward in both the short and long terms.

With projected 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future I don't see why that is a problem. They should be picking locations and breaking ground soon for next years new factories. Are there young engineers and smart people who wouldn't want to have "worked at Tesla" on their resume?

 

[StealthP3D]

A slow faster than expected but steady rise is the best way forward.

Fixed that for you!

 

[MindOverMatcha]

Jim Cramer backing up TSLA today.Why Jim Cramer Thinks It's A Mistake To Sell Tesla On Dip

Seeing this reminds me of when Jim came out with his full support of TSLA around December 2019.
"I'm a true believer"

TSLA was around 80 on 12/9/2019. Then zoomed up to 188 in two months. My vision is clouded by my bias but I see this as another bullish indicator. TSLA will zoom up from here at similar proportions, 1170 => 2340.

 

[Favguy]

How come tx factory would be up running sooner than Berlin

Because Germany has much stricter building oversight regarding environmental matters. It's temporarily annoying for us as an ethical business, but is generally a very good thing as it stops the more unethical/downright evil companies doing lots of harm. Texas has much less protections, so great for Tesla, but a potential disaster waiting to happen when bad players get to do as they like.

 

[Bet TSLA]

That may sound damning as it has some truth in it, but they are simply trying to ride the inevitable ups and downs. All believers in Tesla and TSLA long term. No one is talking about lack of demand or meme stock issues.

Making bearish bets by way of covered calls and then whining when you occasionally get burned by a sudden rise in the stock price is not "simply trying to ride the inevitable ups and downs". If you are going to crow about how clever you are by selling covered calls and making small amounts of extra money on a regular basis, then you had better be ready to laugh it off when you sometimes get screwed by Tesla's success.

Me, I play with options all the time to try to juice my returns. But I sell puts, usually short-term, so when I get screwed it's because TSLA goes down a bunch. I think making bearish bets on TSLA is stupid and those who do it shouldn't be complaining when they get caught with their shorts around their ankles.

 

[TheWalkingDad]

Some details on Rivian IPO (looking to start at $57-62 a share):

Way overpriced IMO. Ford / Amazon have large positions already in the company. The EDV is interesting however.

 

[Speedr117]

Jim Cramer backing up TSLA today.Why Jim Cramer Thinks It's A Mistake To Sell Tesla On Dip

Seeing this reminds me of when Jim came out with his full support of TSLA around December 2019.
"I'm a true believer"

TSLA was around 80 on 12/9/2019. Then zoomed up to 188 in two months. My vision is clouded by my bias but I see this as another bullish indicator. TSLA will zoom up from here at similar proportions, 1170 => 2340.

I think he has his ear to the ground and hears a lot from Wall Street. It usually is when the direction he is advocating goes counter to the bear case. I think it's due to him hearing from HFs, etc. that they're buying...