Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

This will encourage Tesla fans to switch from Model S to Cybertruck.

This revision helps Rivian the most followed by the Detroit 3.

I guess Lucid will price their Gravity SUV starting at $79,990. And accelerate time to market.

This really helps further decimate the luxury sedan in the US in favor of huge trucks.

At this point I think it’s 50/50 anything at all gets passed.

 

[jbcarioca]

Does anyone think Uncle Leo's story is weird?

My alarm always go off when a billionaire actively seeks attention.

And a billionaire I've never heard of and was never been mentioned in the tech field.

Just a little bit of context:
Peranakans (aka Straits Chinese) are the descendants of ancient Chinese immigrants to Malaya and (mostly northern) Indonesia. Singapore and Malaysia are the current nations derived from Malaya.

Many such people have long been known for their speculative prowess, a trait that continues unabated. The very best investors among them are often reclusive, sometimes flamboyant, and rarely known outside their particular investment arenas. In my career have dealt with quite a few of these people. Most fo that was involved with their non-local investments.

Mr. KoGuan Leo has been quite well known in Singapore since the early 1990's. He has had both highs and lows financially, and has had a consistent willingness to place unhedged bets on his positions. His success in Tesla is quite typical of that approach. Because of quite astronomical debt levels he could quite easily become wealthier and have that auspicious string of eights. He could also go broke.

Among those with whom I have dealt his story is only recently so wildly unusual due to scale though a successful string of 'doubling down'.
Talking about it is entirely natural for him. This is just the first time his bets were for such a case as TSLA.

In the end @AudubonB gave the succinct and correct advice. Watch carefully! If he guesses incorrectly on his 'march of eights' there will be some unpleasant consequences. He has been flamboyant on the way:
In October 2020, 66-year-old Leo KoGuan, the Indonesian-born, US-citizen billionaire tycoon paid S$62m for Singapore’s largest penthouse at Guoco Tower’s Wallich Residence from British inventor and billionaire entrepreneur Sir James Dyson – who sold at a reported S$11.8m loss.

Wallich Residence

Starting at 180 metres and soaring to 290 metres above sea level, Wallich Residence is an exquisite collection of 181 luxury private residences that crowns the landmark vertical city - Guoco Tower. Wallich Residence defines new heights of prestige, elevating your living with breathtaking sea and...

wallichresidence.com.sg

What has Leo KoGuan, who now lives in James Dyson's former penthouse in Guoco Tower, has to do with Tesla?

In October 2020, Sir James Dyson sold Singapore's largest penthouse at Guoco Tower's Wallich Residence to another billionaire, 66-year-old Leo KoGuan, the Indonesian-born, US-citizen tycoon. At the time, not much was known about the self-made businessman until recent posts on Twitter.

www.99.co

Bluntly he is not a scam nor is he misrepresenting, but he's no stranger to high risk.

Apropos to @AudubonB and his excellent advice there is always one of the key questions whenever someone has multiple citizenships, in his case Singapore, US, Indonesions and perhaps Thai and China. One characteristic of such people is a tendency to hedge nationality risks. The corollary is outrageously complex tax filings and horrendous reconciliation problems. Those also can easily cause tax problems that upset delicate speculation structures.

I first labeled our new large shareholder as someone to watch with a cautious eye (my exact words were far stronger), and little has caused me to change my opinion.
That never-failing arbiter of Truth, the internet, pegged him as having a net worth of some $3 billion at the time he burst on the TSLA screen. That his company is worth $11 billion means little - first, what fraction is his and second, how much of its assets has he access to?
Unless he has utterly perfectly played the derivatives casino - and has he not admitted he messed up there? - then I strongly suspect he has indebted himself greatly.

For all our sakes we can only hope his bets remain as lucrative as they have recently been. Going public with specific numbers does not help him avoid tax and other regulatory scrutiny.

 

[bro1999]

At this point I think it’s 50/50 anything at all gets passed.

All up to President Joe (Manchin)

 

[ZachF]

We Can Almost Write The 2022 10K Now

In 2022, if Tesla avoids any supply issues with batteries, chips and parts, then 1.5 million cars produced is the floor. The number could easily be higher.
In the table below, Q1 2020 - Q3 2021 are actuals and I have estimated Q4 2021 - Q4 2022.
I posted the quarterly numbers so you can eyeball the Qtr to Qtr progression and assess the estimates for yourselves.

View attachment 729204
Consider this:
FREMONT: I have Fremont with 510k units in 2022; this is 18% growth. On the earnings call, Zach stated they were looking for 50% growth over time. Production for 2022 could be 10k-25k higher.

SHANGHAI: The 690k units out of Shanghai in 2022 assumes 3 lines (1 M3 and 2 MY) producing 800/day each. However, I have seen reports that the Model Y lines have reached 1,000 units per day.
Note: There have been some disputes I believe on this forum on whether there is 1 line or 2 lines for the Model Y in Shanghai.

AUSTIN/BERLIN - I assume that Austin and Berlin ramp similar to Shanghai in 2020 with 150k units each. But Tesla has learned much since then (as we have seen with the 2021 Model Y ramp in Shanghai) and thus the 150k units from each site may be low.

Agree with all of this, though I think Austin ramp will be larger, as it is a much larger facility than Shanghai phase 1 or Berlin.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Might depend on the broker, but TDA will be able to lend out every share you have.

Only if under 100%? Are other brokers the same anybody?

 

[NicoV]

We Can Almost Write The 2022 10K Now

In 2022, if Tesla avoids any supply issues with batteries, chips and parts, then 1.5 million cars produced is the floor. The number could easily be higher.
In the table below, Q1 2020 - Q3 2021 are actuals and I have estimated Q4 2021 - Q4 2022.
I posted the quarterly numbers so you can eyeball the Qtr to Qtr progression and assess the estimates for yourselves.

View attachment 729204
Consider this:
FREMONT: I have Fremont with 510k units in 2022; this is 18% growth. On the earnings call, Zach stated they were looking for 50% growth over time. Production for 2022 could be 10k-25k higher.

SHANGHAI: The 690k units out of Shanghai in 2022 assumes 3 lines (1 M3 and 2 MY) producing 800/day each. However, I have seen reports that the Model Y lines have reached 1,000 units per day.
Note: There have been some disputes I believe on this forum on whether there is 1 line or 2 lines for the Model Y in Shanghai.

AUSTIN/BERLIN - I assume that Austin and Berlin ramp similar to Shanghai in 2020 with 150k units each. But Tesla has learned much since then (as we have seen with the 2021 Model Y ramp in Shanghai) and thus the 150k units from each site may be low.

Nice work!
Two observations:
- Why the slow ramp in Q1 22 Shanghai? Can’t be Chinese newyear, in 21 there was no such effect.
- Why the slow ramp of S/X? Will it really take more than 5 quarters to achieve the S/X volume from before the S/X refresh? Especially with wait times of 1 year, there’s no demand problem for S/X.

 

[Mengy]

Nice work!
Two observations:
- Why the slow ramp in Q1 22 Shanghai? Can’t be Chinese newyear, in 21 there was no such effect.
- Why the slow ramp of S/X? Will it really take more than 5 quarters to achieve the S/X volume from before the S/X refresh? Especially with wait times of 1 year, there’s no demand problem for S/X.

Because production is hard, of course!

 

[Boomer19]

Does anyone think Uncle Leo's story is weird?

My alarm always go off when a billionaire actively seeks attention.

And a billionaire I've never heard of and was never been mentioned in the tech field.

he's pumping his book just like most clowns you seen cnbc..except his strategy is more wsb-yolo

either way, I never put too much weight on what 1 person or entity's strategy is.

however, its important to at least absorb it. this guy’s fixing to go out like he came in...which could affect the price for a short while at some point

 

[The Accountant]

Nice work!
Two observations:
- Why the slow ramp in Q1 22 Shanghai? Can’t be Chinese newyear, in 21 there was no such effect.
- Why the slow ramp of S/X? Will it really take more than 5 quarters to achieve the S/X volume from before the S/X refresh? Especially with wait times of 1 year, there’s no demand problem for S/X.

Good points.
I said the 1.5m was the floor but maybe it's lower than the floor . . . . perhaps the basement .

 

[ZachF]

Nice work!
Two observations:
- Why the slow ramp in Q1 22 Shanghai? Can’t be Chinese newyear, in 21 there was no such effect.
- Why the slow ramp of S/X? Will it really take more than 5 quarters to achieve the S/X volume from before the S/X refresh? Especially with wait times of 1 year, there’s no demand problem for S/X.

He is being purposely conservative to show how 1.5m could be on the lower end of possible 2022 production. Reading the tea leaves, you could probably get 1.9m(!) on the higher end.

 

[SunCatcher]

With institutions and hedge funds having bought recently I think we will see more positive articles
- till they decide to cash out

Looks like the bards and poets are on our side

Yes. It certainly does.

When creativity and science meet, the world has the potential to become whole again. Elon has carried the relic icon of the ICE age all the way to the fires of Mount Doom, and now appears to be getting the help he needs to throw it in. Run Elon. Run!

Pre-market: $1,242.69. Sweet! The sky was the limit until now. Not anymore baby! Rocket Thrusters appear to have been attached to TSLA!

 

[obie_fl]

Up to $1242 pre-market with another half hour to go. Looks like another interesting day ahead

 

[ThisStockGood]

We’re approaching 1,300… and we all know what that potentially brings…

Not physical advice.

 

[bro1999]

Up to $1242 pre-market with another half hour to go. Looks like another interesting day ahead

I usually don't trust pre-market activity that isn't driven by some big news event (earnings/stock upgrades/downgrades, etc) but I think the TSLA activity this morning is indicative of what will happen today.

 

[hacer]

3x from here would be 3.5T market cap, that would be crazy awesome

FTFY

 

[elasalle]

Pondering ...

$TSLAQ/ CNBS bards&poets ... competition is coming. VW is the main one to look out for, has so many models in all segments
VW CEO ... we cannot keep up with Tesla

subtle, but I think Deiss' actions are pumping Tesla stock ...

this along with GJ predicting splits

 

[ZachF]

Nobody mentions that we’re achieving fresh ATH‘s in pre-market?

We don’t want to jinx it!

 

[Boomer19]

Do you actually have to have less than 100% equity percentage before the broker can lend your shares, or does your broker get free reign over your shares regardless for being in a margin account?

1) yes a broker must segregate fully paid shares from shares purchase using margin. only the margin shares are allowed to be lent by your broker

2) your broker can lend fully paid shares only if they offer a program to that effect (stock yield enhancement program) AND you deliberately opt-in to the program.

Can you just ask for them back any time? How fast must they comply?

In a margin account, does the broker have to give them back the instant you pay off your margin?

to the first question (can you ask for them back)
in scenario 1 above - no (the shares aren’t “yours” per se, because you used margin)

in scenario 2 above - yes
- in my example, at ibkr, i can opt in or opt out of syep (program) which affects all stocks, i can’t just single out TSLA or another security (not sure if that’s just for operational efficiency or if it’s market regulation?)

to your 2nd question, scenario 2 is all that applies. (more on that below).

to 3rd question - yes
as soon as your shares become fully paid again, the broker is forced to segregate them from pool of margin shares, on your behalf

the unwind of 2 and 3, when the shares are lent out - the mechanics are similar

- you inject cash to cover the margin, or your overall acct value raises enough to cover the margin
- or you recall your fully paid (opted “in”) lent shares

the broker must recall the loan on ‘t’
- i think the counterpart has 2 days to return the shares (up to t+2)
- on t+3 market opening, fail to receive broker can “buy-in” fail to deliver broker
- the cost of the buy in is charged to the FTD broker
- the buy in trade settles 2 more days (now we’re at t+5
- at which point that could fail too

point is, it’s fairly instant in your acct once your shares are now fully paid, but it’s not instant on the street side (nscc) of the equation

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla needs to buy a couple welding schools around the country. Cybertruck is going to drastically increase the need for guys who can weld stainless. Maybe go ahead and train folks how to repair single piece castings and structural batteries while they are at it.

 

[MABMAB]

Pre and post markets are not something I trust or distrust. I rarely BUY but am willing to sell.