Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

So um, I’ve got some money now (finally ) to buy more shares but this thing is crazy lol! It was down to 1170$ yesterday. Any chance we get back there tomorrow or next week? Or is this looking like we’re solid into the 1200 now?

1200 Call holders are still trying their luck to see how high this will go ... but since tomorrow is Fri, I would expect an exit starting later today or early tomorrow morning ...
(Just a guess ...)

 

[Krugerrand]

Not dumb, just different priorities.

Last time Germany experienced social instability and unemployment, results were devastating for everyone. Tragedy, its causes and resulting guilt are thought extensivelly at school and every politician has it in mind. Maybe for too long, maybe too much but it is what it is.

German elite is completely committed to social contract that maintains economic stability of the working class even at expense of competitiveness. It is not the first time it happened ... if you see it in slow downward glide of German technological leadership in chemical industry (AGFA, BASF) or electronics and communications (Siemmens). This is the place of invention of TV, both major ICE engines, rocket and most of modern industrial chemistry... I am not aware of anything of significance invented in Germany in the recent 20 years.

I just thought I will mention it as similar dynamics of social development vs competitiveness affected Tesla in both California -> Texas move and with US Federal sub $2T spending package.

It is dumb if the priority you set destroys the very fabric of the society you want.

Germany is going to thank Tesla one day for saving them from themselves. For if Tesla had chosen another country to feed the European market, all the jobs about to be lost but regained via Tesla (directly and indirectly) would have been lost forever.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I've been selling on the run up, sold more in the last few weeks than I ever have. Probably done for now until next year. If there is a significant pull back I'll buy, if it keeps going up I'll keep holding. Either way I have more money than I ever expected.

I'm not selling nearly as much compared to what I did prior runups where I nearly halved my TSLA waiting for a correction. It's in stark contrast compared to the all-in margin bets discussed here recently, but it's both peace of mind and creates opportunity to buy at discount which may or may not present itself. Just this last week, I paid a bit for this "correction insurance", so not the best advice if max growth is the goal and considering we could be just in the middle of the Gamma squeeze not the end.

But I also know that I love a good sale and get rewarded each time when I buy back on discount. This helps me accept the drops in TSLA, maybe even encourage it occasionally (an indication that I sold too much?). I would have bought yesterday at 1,150, but wasn't paying attention!!! Oopsy. However, these weekly trades have a nice set of gains of their own just on TSLA volatility. I traded TSLA ~300 times this year.

Considering this is not a normal market and scholarly people still argue over inflation vs deflation and other factors, the risk of a macro correction seems higher than normal to me and so it boils down to risk tolerance. This go around, I'm down to about 80% TSLA from normal. That cushion is based on a number not a percent so it shrinks every step up we go.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Those aren't the single piece castings or structural packs though, they are attachments.

The "horns" or rails are part of the giga casting, and are what Elon said could be cut off for collision repair. Anything deeper than that and yeah, that's a write-off.

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@tesladri @ChananBos @raytech247 @WholeMarsBlog The crash absorption rails can be cut off & replaced with a bolted part for collision repair" / Twitter​

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 12 minutes ago: Tesla's Surging Order Flow In China Prompts EV Maker To Halt 0% Down Payment Program

Excerpt:

The decision to cancel the 0% down payment, which was originally announced on Monday, was said to be due to a spike in orders that has the potential to lengthen the delivery time. Tesla fears this could affect user experience, the report added.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I am jonesing to add a "camper shell" in the form of a triangle/pyramid over the vault of matching stainless steel with some insulation and Solar panels embedded in the roof. So the "truck" will be more of a cybervanagon. Hopefully by the time my number comes up (roughly the 250,000th Cyber(nota)truck) there will be such an after-market option.

Nah. Added a preorder for a Cyberlander for my tri motor. That satisfies my geek factor

 

[StealthP3D]

I'd imagine welding on aftermarket accessories would void a warranty. Not sure what you'd want to weld on anyway.

Warranties are the most over-rated piece of paper ever. Worse than an IOU from a friend, worse than a stock certificate, even worse than paper money. No one who gets the "big picture" cares about warranties. I didn't even buy a car that came with a warranty until I had enough money that I wasn't concerned if something broke. Before that, if it broke, I fixed it or bought another inexpensive used car. After over 50 years of being an American consumer I can say I've collected less on warranties than I've spent on flowers. And I don't buy flowers very often.

Buy good stuff from reputable makers, use as intended and don't spend a minute of your life worrying about a warranty. Sure, if a warranted item just happens to break during the warranty period, yes, take it in and have it fixed on the manufactures dime. But life is too short to fixate on warranties - it's better to just buy less stuff and if you do modify an item, know what you're doing and take responsibility for your modification.

But, to the point of your post, welding aftermarket accessories onto your Cybertruck cannot void your warranty unless your welding was the cause of the failure. Warranties only cover manufacturing defects, not user defects.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So um, I’ve got some money now (finally ) to buy more shares but this thing is crazy lol! It was down to 1170$ yesterday. Any chance we get back there tomorrow or next week? Or is this looking like we’re solid into the 1200 now?

Yes. Or 1500 in the next week. (Sorry, I’m in the same boat).

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Not dumb, just different priorities.

Last time Germany experienced social instability and unemployment, results were devastating for everyone. Tragedy, its causes and resulting guilt are thought extensivelly at school and every politician has it in mind. Maybe for too long, maybe too much but it is what it is.

German elite is completely committed to social contract that maintains economic stability of the working class even at expense of competitiveness. It is not the first time it happened ... you can see it in slow, downward glide of German technological leadership in chemical industry (AGFA, BASF) or electronics and communications (Siemmens). This is the place of invention of TV, both major ICE engines, rocket and most of modern industrial chemistry... I am not aware of anything of significance invented in Germany in the recent 20 years.

I just thought I will mention it as similar dynamics of social development/equity vs competitiveness affected Tesla in both California -> Texas move and with US Federal sub $2T spending package.

ooh I fancy a german $Lilium jet tho! Lilium Air Mobility - Lilium I want one now

 

[Rarity]

There are five (5) Gigapresses at Giga Shanghai. Fremont has two (2). So not only are there two Model Y lines in Shanghai, but I expect they'll transition to front structural castings at about the same time as Berlin begins Model Y production.

I have seen pictures of only three Gigapresses. Can you please direct me to the reference to five Gigapresses?

 

[JRP3]

Warranties are the most over-rated piece of paper ever.

Most people would not agree. Especially S owners who had multiple drive units replaced under warranty. But you are probably correct that warranty would not be voided unless it could be shown to weaken the design.

 

[Paul_SF]

So um, I’ve got some money now (finally ) to buy more shares but this thing is crazy lol! It was down to 1170$ yesterday. Any chance we get back there tomorrow or next week? Or is this looking like we’re solid into the 1200 now?

Come on Sofie, you know this is going to go way higher on the long term. You can’t be stressing about a few tens of $ here and there, especially in your situation. I said that before, when you were stressing about buying in the 8or900’s I think.

I think you are just chasing the thrill of getting a “deal”.

Price doesn’t matter on a long term investment. “Time in the market….”

 

[DFibRL8R]

Trending topic: Electric vehicles for public safety

While world leaders debate and approve actions to reduce methane emissions and protect forests, public safety is already putting no-emission electric vehicles into service

www.ems1.com

Interesting short article from EMS1 which is for prehospital medical professionals (aka EMT's, paramedics) about EV's for use as ambulances. I've seen some Electrek articles on this but nice to see the topic getting some promotion in other outlets. Supports the Tesla mission of accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy with other companies such as Lion and Lightning eMotors taking market share from ICE manufacturers, not Tesla. Broader adoption of different EV platforms beyond what Tesla is planning to produce increases awareness of the benefits of EV's and TSLA benefits indirectly.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Those who can, do
Those who cannot, teach

As a retired teacher of 29 years I would say you are wrong. A whole lot of very gifted people out there educating the next generation of geniuses.

Those who can, do
But without gifted teachers, their talent is often wasted.

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

Those who can, do
Those who cannot, teach

Ha! That's true if what you're good at pays very well (like investing or facilitating corporate mergers) but perhaps not so true if you just happen to be good at teaching people to read and write or how to install their own solar system.

 

[inconel]

Those who can, do
Those who cannot, teach

I taught my son how to ride a bicycle last weekend and I swear that I can ride a bicycle too.

 

[lafrisbee]

Let's see if the SP gets rejected at $1240 again?

 

[Sofie]

Come on Sofie, you know this is going to go way higher on the long term. You can’t be stressing about a few tens of $ here and there, especially in your situation. I said that before, when you were stressing about buying in the 8or900’s I think.

I think you are just chasing the thrill of getting a “deal”.

Price doesn’t matter on a long term investment. “Time in the market….”

True! So true! Okay only 25k cleared for me to buy today and the rest of the 70k should be available tomorrow or next week. But I’ll just got ahead and buy today and the next day or whenever the rest of available. Thank you! You all always set my mind right.
(Lol!!! And Yeah I do get a thrill about the chase for a deal! You should see me at Walmart )

 

[MP3Mike]

I have seen pictures of only three Gigapresses. Can you please direct me to the reference to five Gigapresses?

Picture was in the Q3 slide deck: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/deliver...78d/S1dbei4/WEB/TSLA-Q3-2021-Quarterly-Update

 

[StealthP3D]

I am jonesing to add a "camper shell" in the form of a triangle/pyramid over the vault of matching stainless steel with some insulation and Solar panels embedded in the roof. So the "truck" will be more of a cybervanagon. Hopefully by the time my number comes up (roughly the 250,000th Cyber(nota)truck) there will be such an after-market option.

A truck and a good adventure trailer can navigate a more rugged trail than a truck with a camper in the bed, have a higher range and more living space/payload capacity. I've found most people don't have a good grasp of the limitations and weight considerations of a truck mounted camper. Campers appeal to those who don't understand the strengths of a good trailer and the limitations of a camper. It sounds good in principle to have everything traveling on the same four wheels without the hassle of a trailer but, in practice, it generally doesn't work out very well. The Cybertruck already has a large covered vault large enough to sleep in if you want to go basic. If you want more than that I would suggest adding a small trailer sized to accommodate any additional functionality.