Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Here's a great example of paid advertising from Motortrend masquerading as journalism. I'm fine there is competition and I love that we actually have other BEVs to compare against, but this is blatant and just plain wrong.

Why? Seems like they might have left out the class leader which isn't mentioned at all, no explanation of why it is left out and nothing pointing out the major deficiencies of these other 3 vehicles. And the Model Y is completely left out of their buyers guide. Hmm...gee, I wonder why?

 
I know this is subjective - but there are quite some things you can't get in Teslas today that people value:
- active matrix headlights
- heads-up display
- TACC with LaneAssist >150kmh
- premium Seats (ventilated, length adjustable, side-wall adjustable etc..)
- more color choices than my hand has fingers ;)

The seat part is the one that bugs me personally - so if German SuC open up I might consider an Audi myself - selling my Tesla but not my TSLA ;)

Ingest two for me.
1. Birds eye view parking. It’s a great feature..and could save some curb rash for sure.
2. No ability to add Sirius app. Yes can stream via phone..but sound quality degrades, andlive somewhere with variable phone reception. The music capabilities in places with no cellular is still frustrating. Doesn’t Elon launch satellites?

It might be helpful if you also looked at it from the other perspective and listed all the things you can’t get in a non-Tesla vehicle.

I assure you the list is more vast and includes far more important everyday features that a larger group of people can appreciate than the elites who would buy the vehicle you’ve described.

Let’s just take the group of people who both own a car and a dog, and the ability to now take that dog with them at anytime of year, anywhere in the world, and leave it unattended inside the vehicle knowing it’ll be comfortable and safe.


Dog mode is simply awesome. Other dog owners are astonished and most still do not know this. The ability to run an errand is awesome on a hot day. If demand ever becomes a problem, one add featuring this would cure that quick.
 
Here's a great example of paid advertising from Motortrend masquerading as journalism. I'm fine there is competition and I love that we actually have other BEVs to compare against, but this is blatant and just plain wrong.

Why? Seems like they might have left out the class leader which isn't mentioned at all, no explanation of why it is left out and nothing pointing out the major deficiencies of these other 3 vehicles. And the Model Y is completely left out of their buyers guide. Hmm...gee, I wonder why?

Model Y is under Best Electric Luxury Compact SUVs
 
Except that the original "estimate" is based on a whole lot of speculation.

The 250 mile range is only true at the beginning of life, so the 1 million mile estimate is overstated. It could go 1 million miles but near the end of life it's range would greatly lower the value and utility of the vehicle. Also 4,000 cycles is NOT "*at least*", it is an average of cells tested in laboratory condition. The results in real-world temperature conditions including aging will likely be worse.

Maybe, maybe not. Actual vehicle prices have been rising.

I think that most people would agree that a 10x reduction in energy cost is an aggressive estimate.

Another very aggressively low estimate.

This doesn't invalidate your whole point, it's just that the actual cost reduction may be more like a factor of 2 to 4 rather than 7.5
In 2019 on Autonomy Day, Elon said 4k cycles was doable with what they had then. By 2025-2030 it is extremely likely they can do this if they can't today. From what I'm hearing from Jeff Dahn's lab and the superior thermal control of the new pack architecture and the dry electrode deposition from Maxwell, I think 5-6k cycles to 70% degradation is feasible by then. I didn't say this in the original post because it was already getting long.

Price from Shanghai has been rising, but costs are falling. This is reflected in the rising gross margin. Also, 2021's high supply chain costs are unlikely to persist long term. The pandemic is messing with everything.

Most people said Seba's original 10x solar and battery cost reduction claim from 2009 also was laughably aggressive, yet here we are. He actually underestimated the cost improvement and production volume for 2020. Solar has fallen in cost by an order of magnitude about every 15 years for 70 years running and there's still improvements to be made. I'm merely making an empirical extrapolation with Wright's Law. I see no reason for this trend to stop just because a solar + PV recently hit the tipping point of cost parity with legacy technologies.

1636133541657.png


As far as insurance costs falling, it really is directly proportional to payouts which is directly proportional to collision rates and theft rates. Teslas already are nearly impossible to steal or break into without getting caught and this will get even more difficult over time. And Tesla's own data shows that Tesla vehicles are already several times less likely to be in collisions than other cars and the gap is widening every couple weeks. Also they recently posted the video of their crash safety team explaining how they use fleet data and advanced simulation to tweak vehicle design to mitigate the risk of severe injury in collisions.

And also, the resale cost of the battery alone at end of life is probably about $20/kWh at least for use in stationary storage. For a 65 kWh pack, that's $1,300 scrap value.
 
Last edited:
And yet still doesn't change anything. Even a little.

The system is speed limited to roughly the same speed in both places

So it's absolutely not regulation that limits the speed in Germany.

It limits other things that are less limited in the US.

But speed? It's actually slightly higher in Germany than the US.

So no- this specific limit has nothing, at all, to do with "regulations"


Indeed, your own link discusses what things are regulated in the EU- and AP top speed is not among them.
While they don't specifically regulate top speed, given that they do place an upper bound on allowed lateral acceleration, that is effectively a speed limit if you want to safely control the car. Perhaps you consider remaining in the lane (or even on the road!) during auto-steer unnecessary but most would disagree.

Autopilot and other auto-steer systems will not be going to high speeds in the EU, regardless of technology, due to regulation.
 
I strongly disagree. Although generalizations about not using margin may apply to large swaths of the general population, investors here have varying levels of sophistication and assets.

Virtually every well run business uses loans. Most homeowners have used mortgages. Margin is just another kind of loan with terms that are not intrinsically better or worse than any other. Whether it is used well or not depends on understanding the terms, and to ensure the risk is appropriate for oneself.

Everyone risks their life everyday, so financial risks should be taken in that context. And, no, avoiding margin does not protect one from a calamity.

Just a quick anecdote. Currently I would say I do not know what I am doing. Years ago though I really did not know what Iwas doing. Had a margin account, and one day woke up, and all my shares in that account were gone. No warning. Sold by bank.

The US dollar had fluctuated, briefly steeply downward, making my holdings less valuable. So I exceeded my limits in Canadian dollars and…gonzo. I know we are a Worldwide forum and just something to consider, as I had not.


If I knew know what I knew in 2011…not about Tsla price but just about investing I would likely be 10x from where I am. But thanks to this board…when the next Tsla comes along I will be ready.
 
While they don't specifically regulate top speed

Yes. that's literally the entire point of the post with which you've now replied multiple times and hit disagree on. Glad you finally are onboard with the actual facts of the case!


For some reason you kept typing though. And then backtracked.


Autopilot and other auto-steer systems will not be going to high speeds in the EU, regardless of technology, due to regulation.

Again not only have you reverted to ignoring the facts, you're ignoring the fact the specific thing being discussed (max speed on AP) is actually higher in the EU than the US

Because that top speed has nothing to do with regulation at all


I'd suggest you take further discussion to one of the FSD/AP threads as it's increasingly not of relevance here.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: hacer
I've checked various twitter feeds as well as threads on TMC and yet I have found no mention of the fact that the Tesla Model S long range is no longer a long range. It has been reduced in range to 375 miles from the former 406. Other models may also have been reduced but the Model 3 lowest range is still the same as it has been for a few days, apparently due to the change in batteries.
Any idea on what is going on?
Will news of this affect the stock price, or will it be a burp that passes inoffensively?
 
I've checked various twitter feeds as well as threads on TMC and yet I have found no mention of the fact that the Tesla Model S long range is no longer a long range. It has been reduced in range to 375 miles from the former 406. Other models may also have been reduced but the Model 3 lowest range is still the same as it has been for a few days, apparently due to the change in batteries.
Any idea on what is going on?
Will news of this affect the stock price, or will it be a burp that passes inoffensively?



This too is not accurate.

You're looking at the 21" wheels.

Switch back to 19s and the range goes back to 405.
 
 
I've checked various twitter feeds as well as threads on TMC and yet I have found no mention of the fact that the Tesla Model S long range is no longer a long range. It has been reduced in range to 375 miles from the former 406. Other models may also have been reduced but the Model 3 lowest range is still the same as it has been for a few days, apparently due to the change in batteries.
Any idea on what is going on?
Will news of this affect the stock price, or will it be a burp that passes inoffensively?
Wheels.
 
...

Most people said Seba's original 10x solar and battery cost reduction claim from 10 years ago also was laughably aggressive, yet here we are. He actually underestimated the cost improvement and production volume for 2020. Solar has fallen in cost by an order of magnitude about every decade for 70 years running and there's still improvements to be made. I'm merely making an empirical extrapolation with Wright's Law.
Except that is the price of solar modules, not the electricity that they produce. The electricity costs will include distribution, storage, maintenance, etc. and will not fall as fast nor as far as the module production costs. For example, the distribution costs alone on my electric bill are over 4 times higher than your total projected cost per kWh. This part of the cost has actually been trending slightly upwards (for me at least) for over a decade now. In some parts of the U.S., insurance costs for liability for the risk of fire in the distribution of electricity alone is unlikely to ever get as low as your projected price per kWh.
 
In 2019 on Autonomy Day, Elon said 4k cycles was doable with what they had then. By 2025-2030 it is extremely likely they can do this if they can't today. From what I'm hearing from Jeff Dahn's lab and the superior thermal control of the new pack architecture and the dry electrode deposition from Maxwell, I think 5-6k cycles to 70% degradation is feasible by then. I didn't say this in the original post because it was already getting long.

Price from Shanghai has been rising, but costs are falling. This is reflected in the rising gross margin. Also, 2021's high supply chain costs are unlikely to persist long term. The pandemic is messing with everything.

Most people said Seba's original 10x solar and battery cost reduction claim from 2009 also was laughably aggressive, yet here we are. He actually underestimated the cost improvement and production volume for 2020. Solar has fallen in cost by an order of magnitude about every 15 years for 70 years running and there's still improvements to be made. I'm merely making an empirical extrapolation with Wright's Law. I see no reason for this trend to stop just because a solar + PV recently hit the tipping point of cost parity with legacy technologies.

View attachment 729642

As far as insurance costs falling, it really is directly proportional to payouts which is directly proportional to collision rates and theft rates. Teslas already are nearly impossible to steal or break into without getting caught and this will get even more difficult over time. And Tesla's own data shows that Tesla vehicles are already several times less likely to be in collisions than other cars and the gap is widening every couple weeks. Also they recently posted the video of their crash safety team explaining how they use fleet data and advanced simulation to tweak vehicle design to mitigate the risk of severe injury in collisions.

And also, the resale cost of the battery alone at end of life is probably about $20/kWh at least for use in stationary storage. For a 65 kWh pack, that's $1,300 scrap value.
That appears to be a graph of uninstalled PV module cost. I have been watching such curves quite carefully in the energy sector in my day job for 30-years. They are impressive, hopeful even for us poor humans. However when you take into account:
- full BoM of an installed system (inverts, combiners, meters, etc);
- install costs;
- permitting osts (aka soft costs);
And then add in the biggy:
- intermittency costs (so either overbuild PV, or add wind, or add battery, or all, or other costly stuff);
Then I think you'll find that on a Levelised Cost Of Energy with Intermittency Provision Included that the curve is tending to level out. I would like that not to be the case, and in time I hopeful that Tesla (and others) will force trend resumption, but it is not quite as good news quite yet as one might like.
 
I've checked various twitter feeds as well as threads on TMC and yet I have found no mention of the fact that the Tesla Model S long range is no longer a long range. It has been reduced in range to 375 miles from the former 406. Other models may also have been reduced but the Model 3 lowest range is still the same as it has been for a few days, apparently due to the change in batteries.
Any idea on what is going on?
Will news of this affect the stock price, or will it be a burp that passes inoffensively?
I've checked various twitter feeds and we live on flat earth with govts inpregnating us with 5G rays through vaccines and your grandpa was an alien from M42.

Is this gonna affect my Friday afternoon? Probaly yes. Go TfTer.
 
That appears to be a graph of uninstalled PV module cost. I have been watching such curves quite carefully in the energy sector in my day job for 30-years. They are impressive, hopeful even for us poor humans. However when you take into account:
- full BoM of an installed system (inverts, combiners, meters, etc);
- install costs;
- permitting osts (aka soft costs);
And then add in the biggy:
- intermittency costs (so either overbuild PV, or add wind, or add battery, or all, or other costly stuff);
Then I think you'll find that on a Levelised Cost Of Energy with Intermittency Provision Included that the curve is tending to level out. I would like that not to be the case, and in time I hopeful that Tesla (and others) will force trend resumption, but it is not quite as good news quite yet as one might like.
Sales cost alone in the US market for residential solar is averaging 20-35% of a homeowners pricetag......and is completely unnecessary. So you could very accurately presume that cost will be eliminated in short order and be replaced by battery cost which eliminated intermittency.

Standalone residential solar install costs at the product level will drop by a good 30-40% over the next 2-3 years. As TMC'ers you folks should already see this on the horizon. Tesla charges $2.01/Watt for solar installs right now vs. an average of maybe $3.25/Watt across the whole market last year. They just haven't scaled their service/communications, and the market hasn't yet eliminated the heavy sales cost. It will.