Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

Curve ball (total devil's advocate here), but what if he doesn't sell and it's a bear trap to expose unethical or illegal trading? Recall the 420 tweet but never did go private - for reasons beyond me but likely to protect the shareholders or mission or both. So what if a similar event just happened, he didn't sell yet, and reexamines to find that it's not advised. In other words, wall street did something unexpected, he's reconsidering? Or a bear trap which I'd rather believe. Or just nothing and it's done, who really knows. This story is not over, something tells me. It's quite the movie segment in fact.

In my recollection, the 420 tweet was precipitated by a hostile takeover bid from Sudi, which Elon wanted to avoid. (They went into another EV co later.) Probably he had some oral agreement/understanding with e.g. VW for funding, or some of the wealthy guys in his buddy-circle.

BUT, he wanted to protect The Little Guy (TM) investors and found out a bit too late that many of them were not allowed to buy into a private enterprise; likewise many smalltime investors' funds. And that was his reason to back out. 420 was simply the conventional 20% bonus on that day's share price.

Not a great mystery, really. IMO. Of course bears and other vermin pounced ruthlessly. Well, they got pounced back pretty thoroughly since! Every single shorter remaining as of a few weeks ago is far under water. Best place for bottom feeders, right?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah, 3 million would be sufficient even if growth drastically slowed from there.

30.5% gross margin last Q --> 35% margin at least
3 million units
ASP stays around $50k
Opex (which has stayed flat in 2021 despite almost doubling production) rises 30% to $8.6 billion

Auto biz operating profit: $44 Billion
Call taxes 20%.
EPS $32
Today's mkt cap: $1.1 T
P/E 32

Even just for this quarter, 300k deliveries at $55k ASP and 32% margin would be about $12 billion annualized earnings. P/E at today's share price is only 100.

Exactly, you can easily just extrapolate out future valuation that more than justifies a share price of 1200 to day at 30% growth for the next 5 years….which we all know of course is half of what they’re going to actually do.

 

[henchman24]

Exactly, you can easily just extrapolate out future valuation that more than justifies a share price of 1200 to day at 30% growth for the next 5 years….which we all know of course is half of what they’re going to actually do.

Yeah... 25-30% growth basically covers where the street has been valuing Tesla. If you actually figure in the 50% that Tesla has guided, valuations 1400-1600 today make sense. If you figure 70-80% over the next ~2 years then slowing to 50% for 5 after that... you can get to some really lofty numbers quick. The street has a strong tendency to doubt this growth trend (and I actually think it is fair as we haven't seen this type of growth in a manufacturing company in decades), but as long as Tesla executes well... the valuations will follow. Stuff like gamma squeezes, Elon selling shares, short interest, splits... these are all noise in a longer term trend of a company on the way to being the largest by market cap in the world.

 

[woodisgood]

We deserved the 1200 sp on fundamentals, but got there via gamma squeeze. Wall St. perverting a good thing as usual.

 

[TheWalkingDad]

Was going to get in on the Rivian IPO but at these prices I'm piling more $$ into Tesla shares and will be adding more if it keeps dropping.

 

[SOULPEDL]

On a positive note:

 

[lafrisbee]

here's the pissy thing for us amateurs.
Friday I got to think of TSLA as absurd wealth (less than a million dollars, but from my perspective.) And now I don't.
But just like when it popped to $920/SP and then down to $500. Then when it went back to $900 I didn't get the same endorphin buzz.
Now when it goes back to $1200 I am going to not "feel" it.
First world ant.

 

[jhm]

Stock was 1200,
Elon sells 10% to wolves so -120
New price, 1080.
(just go with it...)

Maybe shorts thought they could front-run Musk.

 

[SPadival]

Careful with IV. Even though SP is dropping, those LEAPs might be worth more than they did on Friday.

I am the last person you need to warn about IV (see below)

Having said that, LEAPS Call options are still expensive, even though they are down 18-20% today. Haven’t looked at near term calls. Tons of people who bought calls last week must have lost their shirt.

Guys/gals, don’t go mental and bet the house on $TSLA call options. I only put in what I am willing to lose.

 

[woodisgood]

here's the pissy thing for us amateurs.
Friday I got to think of TSLA as absurd wealth (less than a million dollars, but from my perspective.) And now I don't.
But just like when it popped to $920/SP and then down to $500. Then when it went back to $900 I didn't get the same endorphin buzz.
Now when it goes back to $1200 I am going to not "feel" it.
First world ant.

If you're HODLing long-term, there's literally no point in feeling joy at the ups and sadness when it goes down.

It's pretty easy to pick a reasonable/conservative 2025 or 2030 price...$3k is a safe bet for 2025, and multiply by your number of shares. Should be pretty much the same emotion every time...either satisfaction "that'll do" or "I still need more shares."

 

[tivoboy]

I love when people disclaim they sold at a recent top and, of course, will buy back at lower SP. Brilliant!!

Seems to be working, at least 8 times out of 10

current PT 860-880

 

[Skryll]

The Calls at 2K

have budget for 100 shares, sell a PUT or buy stock and sell Jan 23 1900+ Call (which will give you the discount)

Else ladder down.

Yeah I did the selling of a PUT two days ago. So I will be the proud owner of 100 shares at 1130 strike price by Friday unless I buy them back at a -631% gain temped to sell another one today. 200 shares is better than 100, right?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Maybe shorts thought they could front-run Musk.

If I were a short, I'd try. I only hope this is all part of the plan (or trap).

Honestly, Elon's reasons for selling (shine light on taxed asset issue), was this the best way? Or did he really have no choice but to sell (vs lawyer up and file an extension or something)? I don't even know if the average person wanting to "tax the rich" even understands these tax laws or even why it's unjust. So why risk it for a position statement? Or did he just figured he'd make a statement as he had no choice, so best make use of it at least?

I just sense other "dimensions" to this that are likely way beyond my vision.

 

[jhm]

On a day like today, it's good to take some time on your ride and try not to think too much. Enjoy "Ride" from Twenty One Pilots.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah I did the selling of a PUT two days ago. So I will be the proud owner of 100 shares at 1130 strike price by Friday unless I buy them back at a -631% gain temped to sell another one today. 200 shares is better than 100, right?

Seems like a high strike price for a PUT - you had to know it could easily execute? (but what do I know, still learning)

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Seems to be working, at least 8 times out of 10

current PT 860-880

Now you scare me.
You used to be crazy on target, hope this time you miss.
I just leveraged today (rolleye).
Because otherwise that house in Rosedale isn't gonna buy itself...

 

[dhanson865]

Forward Observing

There was an office pool as to TSLA hitting $1,200 by end of year 2021. I am on record as thumbs up. Can someone give me a call confirming I one (won). With the change, I can probably pick up one more chair.

FYI ~ there was no rule about it staying at or above more than 24 hrs.

Thanks

Several days in Nov 2021 that meet that criteria. Even if you needed 24 hours. Nov3-Nov 5 was three days in a row closing over 1200.

 

[tivoboy]

Now you scare me.
You used to be crazy on target, hope this time you miss.
I just leveraged today (rolleye).
Because otherwise that house in Rosedale isn't gonna buy itself...

Take solace in the fact that 2 or less times out of 10, I’m not right. ;-)

 

[Tommy O]

Seems to be working, at least 8 times out of 10

current PT 860-880

Take solace in the fact that 2 or less times out of 10, I’m not right. ;-)

I right 0/10 times and my 12 month PT target is $0.

Place your bets accordingly.

 

[PeterJA]

What % of people selling have no idea about the China numbers that came out yesterday?

Sucking Alpha published "breaking news" this morning spinning the China numbers as bad:

Tesla sold 54,391 China-made vehicles in October, down 3% from September (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla (TSLA) +1.3% premarket, reports China-made electric cars sales slipped 3% M/M and +348% Y/Y to 54,391 units in the month of October - Reuters. In September, the company...

seekingalpha.com

No mention of the Chinese holiday stopping production for a week. No mention of Tesla producing for export early in the quarter, just like every quarter since... (checks Google)... 2013.

Haters in the comments chortled that China demand is dead, no wonder Elon is cashing out, etc. Is any Big Money dumb enough to believe that? I wouldn't know, but even the Tesla bull Dan Ives of Wedbush keeps droning "China is the linchpin," which is pretty dumb.

What a surprise the haters and Dumb Money will get from the P&D report. Again. Here is Rob explaining why the China October numbers are far from bad. You can hear the excitement in his voice.