Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buddyroe]

So my wife says to me today - "can someone please take Elon's phone? He's costing me so much money."

Then I reminded her - "he turned your $12,000 investment into a million dollars, why would you complain?".

She stared at me and said, "I'm not complaining."

Conversation ended.

On to the next million.

 

[Tyler34]

We truly live in a simulation

 

[bballshinobi]

So my wife says to me today - "can someone please take Elon's phone? He's costing me so much money."

Then I reminded her - "he turned your $12,000 investment into a million dollars, why would you complain?".

She stared at me and said, "I'm not complaining."

Conversation ended.

On to the next million.

Are you sleeping in your Tesla tonight? Take the opportunity to try camping mode lol

 

[gabeincal]

You are not wrong.

I got $15.50 premium per share so this means I really buy 100 of them at $1114.50/share and my guesstimate assuming we stay in the 1000-1300 range with gradual movements, that I was willing to buy effectively at 1114.50 if assigned at below 1130 on Friday.

I did not anticipate that right after it would drop so hard, would have waited of course.

Options are a gamble. HODL is investing. Sometimes I combine the two

Roll it to next week, collect premium. Rinse and repeat until it expires worthless and you keep the premium.

 

[Hock1]

You are not wrong.

I got $15.50 premium per share so this means I really buy 100 of them at $1114.50/share and my guesstimate assuming we stay in the 1000-1300 range with gradual movements, that I was willing to buy effectively at 1114.50 if assigned at below 1130 on Friday.

I did not anticipate that right after it would drop so hard, would have waited of course.

Options are a gamble. HODL is investing. Sometimes I combine the two

I would suggest, if you really want to build wealth, stop trying to "combine the two". JMO.

 

[anthonyj]

Cathie Wood didn’t buy the dip today. Very unusual after such a big drop. Maybe she knows something, Elon didn’t sell yet?

 

[Singuy]

Cathie Wood didn’t buy the dip today. Very unusual after such a big drop. Maybe she knows something, Elon didn’t sell yet?

Perhaps she refuse to sell high and buy higher.

 

[MrMoo]

Cathie Wood didn’t buy the dip today. Very unusual after such a big drop. Maybe she knows something, Elon didn’t sell yet?

She's still at like 11% TSLA in fund.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My purchase might be unlikely today with the uptick rule in effect. As I understand (corrections most welcome) - people can still sell shares, but can't short it below that price? Seems we are riding that 10%. I saw it drop pas 10% just a moment ago, now back in the 9's. So no selling without more shorting? Seems like a good sign to me.

Options Market Makers are still allowed to sell short. It's the "Madoff exemption" to the prohibition against naked short selling. You read this forum, right? It's come up before on occasion...

All a short seller has to do is buy a short Put, and that forces the Market Maker who sold the Put to immediately turn around and sell shares to remain delta neutral.

You are a kid running with scissors if you don't understand how Option hedging works, and how hedge funds and shortzes exploit the Market Maker's exexmption to continue short selling AFTER the Uptick Rule is in effect.

This is what happened today. The Uptick Rule triggered @ $1,046.64 (which is -10% from Yesterday's Close). Shortzes had no problem continuing to drive the SP down afterward.

Here's your homework for tomorrow: Look at the Options volume (and today's final OI not out until 7a.m. tomorrow). Then try to estimate the net delta heding by Market Makers. This is an estimate to the amount of short selling that occured while the Uptick Rule was in effect (its called the bloddy "Market Maker's Exemption" for a reason).

@hacer FINRA reported 7.1% "Short Exempt" volume today (that's shares sold by Market Makers to delta hedge their Options transactions under the "Madoff Rule"). But just 40% of today's NASDAQ volume went through FINRA; we get no report on the rest done by large financial organizations like Market Makers, Hedge funds, and those which are both (like Citadel).

That's over 36M shares traded on which we have ZERO information, and which will never be reported as 'short' so long as MM's can cover within 13 days (or swap shorts w. another MM) before they have to submit a FTD report. Similarly, today's shorting won't show up in the twice-monthly NASDAQ "Short Interest" report as long a MMs/hedgies can cover within the 2-week reporting period.

Hint: this the 'fog' we operate in: insufficient disclosure, provided in an untimely matter.

TL;dr the game is rigged by and for the Market Makers and Hedge funds. Today was BAU.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I would like to offer my support to everyone here who has sustained their greatest portfolio loss on paper in their life.

TSLA keeps going up overall, so every time this happens it's a new biggest paper loss of my life. I know how much I've made overall but it's still not fun or anything. Oh well, tomorrow is indeed another day. I would like it to be a Green Day if possible.

 

[Opus BC fan]

This is true, but then what would be the point of following this forum?

Desensitization?

 

[Curt Renz]

Cathie Wood didn’t buy the dip today. Very unusual after such a big drop. Maybe she knows something, Elon didn’t sell yet?

After today's market close, each of the three ARK ETFs that invest in TSLA still have TSLA at more than 10% of the fund. Cathie's rule is to not buy any more of a stock that is above 10% of a fund.

 

[dm28997]

I may be incorrect on this but back in Aug 2018 Elon had to pay $20 million charge to the SEC along with the company. He bought TSLA stock then, I recall. So some rough numbers. $20 E6/12=1666666.6shares. Profit might be around $1.7 billion. He might have sold already or used it for expenses or I got the story wrong. But it seems he made a smart move.
I wonder what he's got planned now. TSLA bitcoin was very clever also. I love it.

 

[mongo]

I may be incorrect on this but back in Aug 2018 Elon had to pay $20 million charge to the SEC along with the company. He bought TSLA stock then, I recall. So some rough numbers. $20 E6/12=1666666.6shares. Profit might be around $1.7 billion. He might have sold already or used it for expenses or I got the story wrong. But it seems he made a smart move.
I wonder what he's got planned now. TSLA bitcoin was very clever also. I love it.

It was 56,915 shares @ 351.40 presplit worth about $291 million today.
SEC FORM 4

 

[capster]

Great day to roll a sizable chunk of shares (value set at closing price) from a Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, particularly if one were expecting a rebound before the estimated taxes for Q4 are due January 15.

Just sayin’

 

[Cattledog]

Data point - I drove a friend's new Model S Saturday, simply to confirm our Model X order, which was awaiting our final click. I wanted to make sure we were comfortable with the yoke, all the other changes are easy for people who have owned previous versions of Model S, X, Y and 3.

I know there are lots of opinions, but I LOVED the yoke. Everything about it - turning, sight lines, controls, feeling boss, dreaming of F1 'Drive to Survive', etc. Sold. My friend wasn't sure he liked it, my wife seemed intrigued. Of course we clicked and got estimated delivery of SEPTEMBER. LOL, OMG, WhyTheFace. back up the truck, chips into the center of the table, and all The Accountant's musings on Shanghai production. Yeah, I sold puts and bought calls at 8:35 Monday morning. Was looking good until the last half hour, but still feeling good as I go to bed and await premarket.

And it looks like we'll save $1,000/6 months by moving to Tesla insurance. While happily paying for data, supercharging and some version of FSD.

As always...

...All In.

Well that aged horribly, worst post of the day. Might have been a shoo-in for worst post of the year if I'd waited until 9:30 EST.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Based on how we were breaking out of the BB in October, we could return to 860 very easily.

Only a measly 160 points down. Let’s do it tomorrow and get it over with.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m not sure Shanghai producing a few thousand more units a month than expected is particularly market moving news with the market cap over $1 Trillion. The current market cap assumes Tesla will be making 5 million+ vehicles annually at very high profit margins within a few years.

This comment fails to appreciate just how sensitive the valuation of a rapidly growing company is to the actual rate of growth. Elon and Team can tell us their expected growth rate until the cows come home but Wall Street is more of a "show us the money" kind of outfit. Because they don't like to be burned by pretenders with big plans. It's etched into their culture.

Wall Street is going to be favorably impressed by Q4 production and delivery numbers and, unless Tesla tempers the Q4 numbers with accounting tricks to smooth out the cost of ramping two factories, the margins will literally make them start drooling. Because the little boys in suits really only like one thing and that thing is money. Everything else in their lives is simply a manifestation of money. It's all they know.

 

[MXWing]

Well that aged horribly, worst post of the day. Might have been a shoo-in for worst post of the year if I'd waited until 9:30 EST.

Strikes and expiration? Let's see if we can salvage. (and hope tomorrow doesn't add on to the punishment)

Also, it's pretty FRIGGIN CRAZY I'm checking ir.tesla.com for SEC Filings - Beneficial Changes of Ownership with way more anticipation that I have ever had for any EARNINGS.

I'm wanting to roll all puts to JAN 2022, get induced into a coma and wake up when Q4 P/D is out.

 

[tivoboy]

Cathie Wood didn’t buy the dip today. Very unusual after such a big drop. Maybe she knows something, Elon didn’t sell yet?

She already had too much of a position in that fund before this most recent jump, I doubt she’d be adding at these levels. She’s probably trying to decide whether or not to buy more HOOD or PLTR at this point.