Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[H Mak]

Going to do the weekly shopping and I've set a limit buy order for $985 in case funny things happen while I'm out

 

[Mengy]

Welp, there goes 1018 support. Guess we will have rip off the bandaid, fill the breakout gap and bounce from there.

It's not just TSLA going down in the pre-market though, I see a lot of other stocks dropping before the open too.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hedgies trying to take out stop-loss orders at $1,000

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

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Data last updated Nov 10, 2021 07:37 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$1,003.95 -19.55 (-1.91%)
Pre-Market Volume	619,313
Pre-Market High	$1,047.51 (04:01:18 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$1,000.5 (07:34:25 AM)

EDIT: strong support at the $1,000 price level in the Pre-market with heavy volume:

 

[Singuy]

It's not just TSLA going down in the pre-market though, I see a lot of other stocks dropping before the open too.

Macro sucks yes. But we saw some large 15 dollar movements. It went from 1029 to 1015 in one trade.

 

[elasalle]

Investors are holding their breath for the latest consumer price index reading, which the Labor Department will report Wednesday before the bell


TSLA Max pain @ 1120

 

[bro1999]

Not TSLA, but tried to get in on the Rivian IPO but it was too late. If I had known what I know now a couple weeks ago, I would have probably just plopped a refundable $1k reservation for a R1S, as reservation holders were allowed to buy up to 175 shares at the IPO price ($78).

 

[redan]

Despite the turmoil, BofA with a SP increase (from $1,000 to $1,200):

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Not TSLA, but tried to get in on the Rivian IPO but it was too late. If I had known what I know now a couple weeks ago, I would have probably just plopped a refundable $1k reservation for a R1S, as reservation holders were allowed to buy up to 175 shares at the IPO price ($78).

I thought about it too, but this year it seems a lot of IPOs fall flat on their first day. Maybe those were earlier this year when SPACs were all the rage. I plan to watch Rivian and set up a small stake after the dust settles.

 

[Sofie]

Welp, there goes 1018 support. Guess we will have rip off the bandaid, fill the breakout gap and bounce from there.

Are you thinking 980$? Or lower?
I found more money (it’s payday ) to go shopping (again) today.

 

[elasalle]

I thought about it too, but this year it seems a lot of IPOs fall flat on their first day. Maybe those were earlier this year when SPACs were all the rage. I plan to watch Rivian and set up a small stake after the dust settles.

For most stocks IPOs are worst time to buy

After holding period is over a lot of early investors cash out with big profits and pass the buck to IPO bag holders

 

[Singuy]

Are you thinking 980$? Or lower?
I found more money (it’s payday ) to go shopping (again) today.

Probably bounce off 20 ema. I am expecting Tsla to close above 1k for the week tho so all this is just drama for the baby mama.

 

[bro1999]

I thought about it too, but this year it seems a lot of IPOs fall flat on their first day. Maybe those were earlier this year when SPACs were all the rage. I plan to watch Rivian and set up a small stake after the dust settles.

Last few IPO's I've tracked (BIRD, HOOD) there was a huge run-up out the gate, then the SP fell back. HOOD is now below its IPO price, and BIRD, after increasing over 100% on its first day of trading, is down significantly (but still 35% over IPO). I think there's definitely an opportunity to make a quick buck with Rivian today for those that got in on IPO price, but I think it'll be a decent long-term stock as long as the company hits its benchmarks.

 

[jw934]

Because the catalyst for all the call buying that led to the gamma squeeze was the knowledge that underweight funds would be buying. Once there was a real or anticipated supply of shares (no different than a cap raise) to quench the demand, leveraged players know the party is over. Call options are rapidly closed out, leading to sale of the underlying shares. This may have been synergistic with Elon’s actual selling but it is also possible he hasn’t sold yet.

I agree the closing of the calls is an excellent explanation for the huge drop. This is backed up by the fact the SP did not start that drop in the pre-market until the options market opened at 9:30 yesterday.

 

[woodisgood]

A quick reminder for anyone who is suffering from the short term noise:
We have entered the disruption zone:
4680 cells with Maxwell dry-electrode is on the verge of flooding the entire BEV market!

I personally believe that Tesla will reach a 2$T market cap this year!


View attachment 731332

Surely you mean in the coming year, or 2022…

 

[SOULPEDL]

Despite the turmoil, BofA with a SP increase (from $1,000 to $1,200):

View attachment 731379

We've been seeing upgrades for a while now, so everyone knows the true value is higher than current SP.
When turns around, I think it will have significant movement. Hopefully this week or maybe today.

 

[Boomer19]

Because the catalyst for all the call buying that led to the gamma squeeze was the knowledge that underweight funds would be buying. Once there was a real or anticipated supply of shares (no different than a cap raise) to quench the demand, leveraged players know the party is over. Call options are rapidly closed out, leading to sale of the underlying shares. This may have been synergistic with Elon’s actual selling but it is also possible he hasn’t sold yet.

great post

east come, easy go

i mean, we kinda knew the velocity of that run wasn’t exactly “natural” —— (leo and all the ensuing gaming that’s been going on)

sure part of it was legit buying, a small middle portion of it may be attributable to a mini-squeeze of those that misplayed the earnings (they expected sell the news but that didn’t happen)…but like you pointed out, a large portion of it was likely the gamma chase

now maybe we are more inline (‘re-calibrated’) to the company executing and navigating its roadmap

i don’t mind that

it makes it easier to analyze their execution…less noise (for now)

 

[bro1999]

We've been seeing upgrades for a while now, so everyone knows the true value is higher than current SP.
When turns around, I think it will have significant movement. Hopefully this week or maybe today.

Everyone's wondering when Elon will sell his shares (or has he already started selling?). Once people know he's done selling (or not selling), the stock should recover. Well, until he tweets the next dumb thing.

 

[winfield100]

i think this applies to investing, (apologies, i’m no longer allowed caffeine) but I think this applies to to earlier discussion of “horizontal AND vertical integration” in terms of all batteries

I was under the impression Tesla was “only” going to go from ~30 gigawatt hours/year battery production to 3,000 gigawatt hours (3 terawatt hours)/year a “ludicrously” high number by 2030,
now I read they are aiming for 5,000 gigawatt hours (5 terawatt hours)/year, a “plaid?” range high number,

to be apportioned between stationary storage and mobile (cars, trucks, what have you,) storage from FactChecking tweet.

this is an increase of ~167x, 30gigawatt hours to 5,000 gigawatt hours in 9 years
(an x^y function?)

this is not just 50% yoy growth, but ?closer? to 60%-70% yoy growth, with the tabless 4680’s being a “step function” increase in the technology
(from tweet)
17/

But I'm not even half through the list of Tesla valuation factors you missed:

Tesla has guided cell production of 5,000 GWh/year by 2030. 50% of that for vehicles, 50% for stationary energy storage.
Tesla's energy utility products are cell-starved, waiting list 1+ year.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458290117098016769

 

[Sofie]

Probably bounce off 20 ema. I am expecting Tsla to close above 1k for the week tho so all this is just drama for the baby mama.

Agree! Just a crazy roller coaster ride.
We may as well just try to turn it around for the good in some way (ex: buy more and don’t stress).

 

[SageBrush]

We've been seeing upgrades for a while now, so everyone knows the true value is higher than current SP.

Hmmm.

It is certainly possible that the analysts have caught a clue, but after years of watching them be idiots, I'm inclined to say they are still idiots. Just as I discounted their opinions until now, I'll continue to discount their opinions