Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bballshinobi]

Regarding the first FSD accident, I actually completely believe it because FSD 10.2, 10.3, and 10.4 are not very good at picking the right lane after making a left, regardless whether there's a car next to you. This literally happened to me this afternoon:

Basically FSD decided to use the inside lane when making the left turn even though there were several cars in front of me and also on my left. I almost ran into the car to my left (sorry!!!) but since I lift weights religiously and am able to curl more than 2.5 pounds, I was able to take control from FSD.

I think some FSD users are too willing to "let it do what it do" in order to test FSD's limits, so maybe that's why this accident happened.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla needs to advertise so that they can be backordered until 2040

Plus, with that much demand, they could get the customers to pay for the advertising cost by hiking the price another $1500! Win/win.

 

[Fred42]

The competition is coming!

The competition:

From Car and Driver: Subaru says the cruising range was designed with “the distances of daily use” in mind.
So apparently not good.

 

[BitJam]

Ya, we paid $53K for our LR just a few months ago. It's now $59K. Crazy is right.

Same here. Buying a Tesla is a lot like buying TSLA. The MYLR started the year at $50K. You wonder if it's a good idea to buy because the price has gone up so much recently. Then you turn around and it goes way more.

 

[Buckminster]

It looks like Waypoint support has finally been added to 2021.40.5:

Waypoint thread:
Waypoints are coming to Tesla vehicles

New thread for Elon's taxes:
Elon selling 10% of his TSLA stake (including tax implications)

 

[oshooda]

If you look at this, from 8/13/2012 and modify for the 5:1 split
$31.17/share, 5,274,901 shares becomes
$6.234/share and 26,374,505 shares

So far, he has _only_ exercised 2,154,572 of those 26,374.505 available, (~8.2%)
But (reported) sold 4,522,138 so far for ~$4,981.862,230.86.
(like others have said, a bunch of form 4's are impending)

so (numbers a bit fuzzy) he's going to need 53% for taxes
So far the _very_ rough average sale price of the 4.5 million shares is ~$1089, so IF those numbers continue
ie $1089 * 26,374,505,
He will need about $15.2 Billion for the tax bite, so only ~1/3 of the way there

View attachment 731982

In which time window do the rest of the shares have to be sold in order to pay tax? Can this be done in small steps over several months or are the taxes due earlier?

A quick sale could increase the pressure on the share price; a sale over several months should have a neutral effect.

 

[BabyBull]

NYU Professor on Valuation

Can be taken as a base case since he considers Tesla as a 'un-car' car company.

 

[Gigapress]

...Years ago the established automakers treated their workers so badly that they chose to unionize. Workers at Tesla and some othre automakers are apparently so pleased with their companies that they have never voted to unionize. Which situation is more commendable?...

I don't think we can necessarily infer that workers at other carmakers have chosen not to vote for a union because they feel better about their treatment. The other automakers have their plants in "right to work" states where unions do not have legal authority to enforce union security agreements and thus are crippled in their ability to negotiate collective bargaining agreements.

I'm not a lawyer.

Right-to-work law - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Ogre]

In which time window do the rest of the shares have to be sold in order to pay tax? Can this be done in small steps over several months or are the taxes due earlier?

A quick sale could increase the pressure on the share price; a sale over several months should have a neutral effect.

A quick sale will be neutral over the long term as well.

Maybe Tuesday was a bit much for 1 day, but it’ll recover quickly. By earnings it’ll be forgotten.

 

[bpjod]

Anyone here knowledgeable about Canadian Depository Receipts (CDRs)?

I'm helping my son set up his TFSA and wanting him to get into some $TSLA. I notice that with TD Direct Investing he can invest in a CDR for TSLA: Aequitas NEO-L: TSLA. I've looked at it's historical performance and it matches $TSLA, just smoothing out some of the spikes (imagine a 5 second moving average rather than instantaneous).

A couple things I like right off the bat: (1) don't have to exchange $CDN to $USD and (2) each "share" is $34.40 right now rather than US$1063.51. That makes it much easier to maximize the purchasing power of his $6,000 (i.e. a way for him to get fractional shares).

I just don't know what the downsides might be. I hope the replies are considered useful $TSLA investing advice for the subset of Canadian investors here and as such they're ok with the mod(s?), else feel free to respond by PM if you'd rather.

Thanks in advance.

Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs)​

Depositary receipts are a time-tested way for investors to access shares of foreign listed companies. Canadian Depositary ReceiptsTM (CDRs) are designed to make it easier for Canadians to access the most popular publicly listed US companies, in Canadian Dollars, and with a built-in currency hedge. CDRs are now listed and trading on the NEO Exchange alongside some of your favourite public companies and ETFs.

A Canadian-First Approach to Cross-Border Investing​

CDRs finally make it easy for Canadian investors, financial advisors, and institutions to invest in some of the world's largest companies, with a few big improvements:​

• CDRs relating to some of the largest US companies listed on NYSE and NASDAQ are now trading in Canadian Dollars.
• Flexibility of investment through fractional ownership of US stocks.
• Your exposure to US Dollar currency risk is minimized through built-in currency hedging, allowing you to own the company, not the currency.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't think we can necessarily infer that workers at other carmakers have chosen not to vote for a union because they feel better about their treatment. The other automakers have their plants in "right to work" states where unions do not have legal authority to enforce union security agreements and thus are crippled in their ability to negotiate collective bargaining agreements.

I'm not a lawyer.

Right-to-work law - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I'm not sure what you're getting at here but the fact remains, Tesla employees, presumably voting in their own best interests, actively voted to NOT unionize. Now congress is considering a bill that withholds incentives to buy the products of a company simply because the workers decided they would be better off without a union. It's idiotic.

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyone here knowledgeable about Canadian Depository Receipts (CDRs)?

I'm helping my son set up his TFSA and wanting him to get into some $TSLA. I notice that with TD Direct Investing he can invest in a CDR for TSLA: Aequitas NEO-L: TSLA. I've looked at it's historical performance and it matches $TSLA, just smoothing out some of the spikes (imagine a 5 second moving average rather than instantaneous).

A couple things I like right off the bat: (1) don't have to exchange $CDN to $USD and (2) each "share" is $34.40 right now rather than US$1063.51. That makes it much easier to maximize the purchasing power of his $6,000 (i.e. a way for him to get fractional shares).

I just don't know what the downsides might be. I hope the replies are considered useful $TSLA investing advice for the subset of Canadian investors here and as such they're ok with the mod(s?), else feel free to respond by PM if you'd rather.

Thanks in advance.

Depository receipts will under-perform the actual shares due to inefficiencies of the buying and selling of shares as investors move money in/out of the fund. Over time the effect will become significant. If you decide to go this route you might double-check that there aren't tax implications (I don't know Canadian tax laws). Don't Canadians have access to brokers that deal with fractional shares?

 

[Gigapress]

NYU Professor on Valuation

Can be taken as a base case since he considers Tesla as a 'un-car' car company.

Professor Damadoran is projecting 2032 revenue of $420 billion and operating margin of 16%. His analysis is rational but he's missing so much important information.

My EBIT estimate for 2032, with FSD excluded, is $420B. Just on auto (incl. insurance, charging and service) and energy.

 

[Gigapress]

I'm not sure what you're getting at here but the fact remains, Tesla employees, presumably voting in their own best interests, actively voted to NOT unionize. Now congress is considering a bill that withholds incentives to buy the products of a company simply because the workers decided they would be better off without a union. It's idiotic.

I agree that's probably true of the Tesla employees' decision, especially considering that their factory is in California.

What I disagreed with was the assertion that a lack of unionization vote at, for instance, the Toyota plant in Georgetown, Kentucky conclusively indicates anything about Toyota's labor relations. In reality, in the states that foreign auto companies have factories in, the law is structured in such a way to make unionization inherently less valuable to employees. Ford and GM plants in the US are mostly in Ohio and Michigan as far as I know, which are more union-friendly states.

 

[mltv]

Regarding the first FSD accident, I actually completely believe it because FSD 10.2, 10.3, and 10.4 are not very good at picking the right lane after making a left, regardless whether there's a car next to you. This literally happened to me this afternoon:

Basically FSD decided to use the inside lane when making the left turn even though there were several cars in front of me and also on my left. I almost ran into the car to my left (sorry!!!) but since I lift weights religiously and am able to curl more than 2.5 pounds, I was able to take control from FSD.

I think some FSD users are too willing to "let it do what it do" in order to test FSD's limits, so maybe that's why this accident happened.

It's beta, please be vigilant and keep an eye out for unexpected behavior. I too have arguments with FSD beta daily, but am able to physically overpower it even with atrophy in both arms due to long time nerve pinch in my neck. Pretty sure my Tesla M3 has the same built-in feature to be overpower as in the Teslabot.

 

[insaneoctane]

Wow, that’s crazy. I’m glad I ordered in September before the $4k-$5k increase. As an investor that’s great. However, I will not be recommending family and friends to buy at these prices. Around here anything over $45k for a car is considered a lot of money which is probably why I hardly see any Teslas. But obviously someone is ordering them. Lol

I wonder how many of the current orders people placed are contingent on the EV rebate passing. I know my dads order is and he is the only other person I know with one outside of the people here.

It's interesting how Tesla introduced the M3 as a $35K car....the MY followed as 75% common to the M3 and the LR available at $47K and eventually (albeit short lived) the $39K MR, yet today the MY approaches $60K! Great for margins, but the MY isn't what it used to be...

 

[generalenthu]

Professor Damadoran is projecting 2032 revenue of $420 billion and operating margin of 16%. His analysis is rational but he's missing so much important information.

My EBIT estimate for 2032, with FSD excluded, is $420B. Just on auto (incl. insurance, charging and service) and energy.

He had been like that forever. Builds good models but feeds them garbage assumptions, at least when it comes to Tesla. I argued with him 5 or so years ago and he was like, awesome you don't like my assumptions, feed your own.

Stopped paying any attention to him after that, but it's good to take his spreadsheet and put your own assumptions and play with it.

 

[Buckminster]

Bigger picture from a super bull; this is the most important news since ER (apart from Elon selling and Shanghai blowing the roof off):

FSD has been a solved problem for sometime imo. There was a remaining risk (pixel clarity on side cameras) that this video has reduced to close to zero. All other issues are just turning the development handle.
Robotaxi is going to happen in next 18 months - probably less than 12.

 

[Cult Member]

Professor Damadoran is projecting 2032 revenue of $420 billion and operating margin of 16%. His analysis is rational but he's missing so much important information.

My EBIT estimate for 2032, with FSD excluded, is $420B. Just on auto (incl. insurance, charging and service) and energy.

Yes, he's rational. But I love one of his final conclusions in this video. TSLA is: 'The ultimate story stock'.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Regarding the first FSD accident, I actually completely believe it because FSD 10.2, 10.3, and 10.4 are not very good at picking the right lane after making a left, regardless whether there's a car next to you. This literally happened to me this afternoon:

Basically FSD decided to use the inside lane when making the left turn even though there were several cars in front of me and also on my left. I almost ran into the car to my left (sorry!!!) but since I lift weights religiously and am able to curl more than 2.5 pounds, I was able to take control from FSD.

I think some FSD users are too willing to "let it do what it do" in order to test FSD's limits, so maybe that's why this accident happened.

I have also been testing FSD beta and I can confirm that almost all my disengagements are caused by "picked the wrong lane". It happens a LOT right now. I also have to disengage a lot when it can't see the lines on a poorly marked road and it decides to just drive into oncoming traffic on the left side or towards a parked car on the right side of the road. This is definitely a real public beta, the software is nowhere near release candidate status. It picks the wrong lane often not only turning left, but also often turning right, and often when going straight and the road splits and it needs to pick the left lane to keep going straight and it picks the right lane which is right-turn only or something.

FSD beta is amazing when it works and the potential is obvious, but when it fails the results are frequently less than a second from catastrophe if the human isn't paying close attention with both hands on the wheel ready to disengage immediately. I realise there isn't any good way to gather data and train a neural network in the real world except go out into the real world but sometimes I feel less than confident that I am really qualified to be a tester for this software because the real world isn't a simulation (that we know of) and doesn't have a reset button if I run into something with my car.