Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

I think this was a bit sour and gave you a seldom (I think maybe ten so far in a couple of years) disagree. Interesting that you immediately disagreed in a very old post of mine, how come???

I prefer to answer you then to let Radish11 answer himself. This is a funny and good natured remark. I think you're having a language barrier issue

 

[15Peter20]

OT: Story from Superchargers.

I was supercharging for 35 minutes today. 4-6 Teslas charing in and out during that time. There are also some other chargers there 3-4 of them.
An Audi E-Tron pulls up. I am guessing dude is on the road as he had 2 bikes on the rack.

Now, he kept fiddling with all chargers and could not get started. 38F and windy. Poor dude kept changing through all stalls back and forth. When I was done, I am not sure if he even started charging.

I do wish it were not the case. He was really struggling.

You all know where this is going - SC network is a moat and advantage of incredible proportions. All Teslas I saw just plugged in and people watched Netflix or played games for a few minutes. Zero drama.

SC# is supposed to triple soon. This alone makes me Tesla forever and I know a few other things that general mob is still ignorant about.

I wish I had time to watch Netflix whilst supercharching.

I know the UK is small, but nevertheless over the last year of M3 ownership I don’t recall spending more than 10 mins charging. Far less time than I spent ICE refuelling in my Land Rover.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I think my account works on FIFO (First In First Out). I think you have to choose a method and stick to it. I know of no way to select which shares you sell other than FIFO.

At Schwab you can open a window that allows you to select the shares you want to sell. Most likely your broker has this, you just need to look around and click on a few things.

 

[OrthoSurg]

View attachment 732806

A billionaire paying more taxes on purpose. The first in all human history. Elon will be remembered as the greatest human of all time.

 

[Singuy]

Yes I'm here thinking that with the taxes Elon didn't have to pay today but did so to make good with his intent, he lost shares he didn't need to. So if capital gain increase in the future with the stock price staying the same, Elon would be in the positive. If stock price increase way more than capital gains tax %, then Elon came out negative here. Someone check this math.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

A billionaire paying more taxes on purpose. The first in all human history. Elon will be remembered as the greatest human of all time.

A nice but ultimately futile gesture. The ones who have agendas will still scream. Nothing will ever be good enough for them and that is completely intentional.

 

[MXWing]

Isn't he purposely donating 23% of his shares away to the U.S government here when is not needed? So even with cap gain tax increasing in the future, he still lost shares today when he didn't need to?

Yes and no. Elon does need cash to pay taxes, pay for living expenses, invest in Doge, etc. He could try to secure another loan against his new shares and repeat what he's done before.

However, one can get overleveraged with loans against the same security (too much wealth concentration in one asset). So rather than snowball his loans and snowball his leverage, taking some cash here makes all the sense in the world. He would maximize his total cash access by giving up the same shares now than later.

I'm sure Elon realizes that black swans that take out 500 million worth of market cap overnight is not impossible. He would not want to be sitting on 200 billion worth of debt when that debt is secured by his shares that lose huge amounts of value even on a temporary basis.

Twitter poll was still stupid though.

He should have just sold his 10% planned sales at a discount in one block to a big bank and kill all this drama / overhang in 5 minutes.

He still nets more shares overall, he just has less personal risk, which is better for shareholders, big picture.

With everything said - yes the government is getting a lot of money from Elon short term. They will unfortunately find ways to blow it immediately on dumb *sugar*.

Even if Elon were to not pay 1 penny of taxes on shares, add up all the taxes that Tesla pays a a whole. Think about all the taxes that come from Tesla existing.

Tesla pays a lot more taxes than Bernie Sanders. How much does Bernie pay in taxes again? Oh wait.. nothing. Actually, he lives off the back of tax payers.

 

[StealthP3D]

There is no data to support next week being a hard cut off.
Best data point is this Tweet claiming two weeks before end of quarter is the black out period for employees:

And, if I had to guess, I would say it's more likely than not that Elon's sales would end before that.

I would also guess that the sales might finish off with a bang rather than taper off. If I was looking to buy more shares here I would be inclined to jump in if it was starting to dump hard figuring that might be the grand finale. Kinda like a fireworks show in reverse.

 

[BriansBucketList]

Isn't he purposely donating 23% of his shares away to the U.S government here when is not needed? So even with cap gain tax increasing in the future, he still lost shares today when he didn't need to?

When you're worth as much as Elon, maybe this is a bit of governmental good karma, i.e. paying it forward. This is when all the financial advisors come out to prove their worth. Money isn't everything, but everybody I deal with seems to want mine. There is a point where taking the least expensive option isn't the most important thing. I learned a bit about Starlink and the US Military yesterday, and it made me realize how much power he actually holds. His Tesla stock sales are such a small fraction of the big picture. It's not that you couldn't do anything besides provide internet access with thousands of satellites in low earth orbit. The government needs all the money it can get, and if they don't, they will when money printing isn't a "thing."

 

[15Peter20]

A billionaire paying more taxes on purpose. The first in all human history. Elon will be remembered as the greatest human of all time.

If the world were filled with TMCers i would agree.

 

[StealthP3D]

Cybertruck needs 4680's so I'm pretty sure it will start production towards the end of 2022.

However, given the number of pre-orders for it I doubt any new buyers will be getting a CT for many years yet, there's just too much demand and too many people in line already. Like the M3 and MY, the CT will be backordered for a very, very long time.

I think Cybertruck production will start well before the end of next year. The big question mark is how fast it will ramp. If I was putting money on it I would try to get 2 to 1 odds that the first deliveries would be the beginning of Q2 next year. I do agree that new orders will have a long wait simply due to how many pre-orders there are. But one likely scenario is that 4680 ramp and Cybertruck ramp go off with a bang and Tesla hits very high production volume to start off 2023.

 

[BriansBucketList]

And, if I had to guess, I would say it's more likely than not that Elon's sales would end before that.

I would also guess that the sales might finish off with a bang rather than taper off. If I was looking to buy more shares here I would be inclined to jump in if it was starting to dump hard figuring that might be the grand finale. Kinda like a fireworks show in reverse.

Hard to call a bottom, but what's the harm in some buy limit orders between 700-1000, subject to change without notice. What's not to like about EV Credits, price increases, higher margins, and production coming online ? Still think this will be one of the biggest buying gifts in TSLA history. The company hasn't changed, but the stock price has gone on sale. Sure, there were a few falling knives, butit's bound to happen and it's short term noise. BTW, I have a stealth P3D, and love the car. FSD tester. I passed the grandma test

 

[OrthoSurg]

If the world were filled with TMCers i would agree.

People are just confronted to their own failures when they contemplate the extend of Musk achievements in one human life.

 

[willow_hiller]

Thought some would find this interesting. A Starlink satellite dish (Dishy McFlatface) spotted at a Florida Supercharger. I love when Elon's companies collaborate and create more than the sum of their parts:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/qte6h1

 

[Knightshade]

What a legend. We should be building statues for this guy already.

I think they will.

They already have. Just not very good ones.

Elon Musk life-size bronze statue in Manhattan mocked online

The response from social media users has been fierce, suggesting it may not be safe - with even calls for the head to come off.

news.sky.com

Yes and no. Elon does need cash to pay taxes, pay for living expenses, invest in Doge, etc. He could try to secure another loan against his new shares and repeat what he's done before.

The argument was he "should" have been selling the NEW options shares, as there would be $0.00 additional taxation selling those (he owes the 53% regardless of selling them or not).... whereas by instead mostly selling "old" shares he's paying another 20% (LTCG) tax on top for all those gains from the sales of them.

He could've easily sold 10% of his total shares that way, paid the tax bill in full, paid off ALL his loans in full, and still had billions in cash left over that way...

Mathematically/lowest tax burden today that's correct... (he'll still have billions in cash left over the way he's doing it- but roughly 20% less billions of it)

Elons response was basically "Yeah, I know how taxes work, I'm paying more on purpose anyway"

Which is going to be a very confusing answer to folks like Gary who make their living trying to optimize financial gains.

 

[StealthP3D]

I would not be surprised if Cybertruck outsells Rivian, F150E, Silverado, Hummer and Endurance combined for the first few years of production. I just don't seeing the others scaling up fast enough. It will be interesting to see how fast Tesla can scale up the Cybertruck. It's a huge market segment in the US, anyway you look at it the models mentioned above are all going to be sold as fast as they can make them.

I don't think the word "fast" can be applied to Hummer EV production. Ever. Mark my words.

 

[thesmokingman]

That statue doesn't look like him though?

 

[Stretch2727]

The argument was he "should" have been selling the NEW options shares, as there would be $0.00 additional taxation selling those (he owes the 53% regardless of selling them or not).... whereas by instead mostly selling "old" shares he's paying another 20% (LTCG) tax on top for all those gains from the sales of them.

He could've easily sold 10% of his total shares that way, paid the tax bill in full, paid off ALL his loans in full, and still had billions in cash left over that way...

Mathematically/lowest tax burden today that's correct... (he'll still have billions in cash left over the way he's doing it- but roughly 20% less billions of it)

Elons response was basically "Yeah, I know how taxes work, I'm paying more on purpose anyway"

Which is going to be a very confusing answer to folks like Gary who make their living trying to optimize financial gains.

Elon is building the trust fund for the union EV tax credit.

 

[StealthP3D]

The current Y/3 lines will be at full capacity by the end of next year. It makes the most sense to start cybertruck out of Austin at that point in time - Otherwise they'll have a half utilised factory in Austin (lack of paint shop limits further expansion of non-cybertruck models) and have to build a new factory for any alternative model.

Cybertruck should also have crazy margins - so there is real incentive to get them made.

Why do you think Austin will lack a paint shop at the end of 2023?

 

[StealthP3D]

They could but to me there is a hole in the Model Y lineup that needs to be filled (at least here in the US).

* Model 3 RWD (previously known as SR+)
* Model 3 Long Range
* Model 3 Performance

vs

* what goes here?
* Model Y Long Range
* Model Y Performance

with production increasing I want to see a 3rd US variant of the Model Y.

Tesla could absolutely avoid making one here and sell every one they make. But there are people that want a cheaper Model Y and don't need the extra range.

At some production level it seems like they could make a few of those and I thought the 2170 vs 4680 split would be a good way to introduce a new spec model that either is the new bottom with 2170s or is a new middle with 4680s.

You admit that Tesla can sell every Long Range/Performance they can make so why would they sell a lower margin variant (Standard Range) that is more likely to purchased by people who don't drive big miles (since it would have less range)? We tend to look at the success of the transition to EV's from the perspective of how many ICE cars are replaced but isn't the most meaningful metric how many ICE miles are displaced by EV miles? Additionally, the more margin Tesla makes, the more they are able to re-invest into other campaigns to speed the mission.