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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Living in Bay Area I found people likes to be pissed with semi-little things. Your neighbors might not be buying Tesla anyway and prefer to give money to GM and Ford because Elon is super-villan.

Seems like most buy Toyota/Honda (e.g., non-UAW) rather than GM/Ford...

I think Elon is wise to appeal to buyers on all sides of the political spectrum. For different reasons, of course.
 
Musk has a small number of weaknesses, one of them is not realising that the US works by lobbying and the optimum thing to do is to cultivate politicians on both sides.
Doesn’t matter what politicians say but what they do. For example on a state level because of dealers influence Tesla can’t sell freely.
So far the product is to good but one day this oversight may hurt Tesla a lot more if adversaries use their political influence to actively thwart Tesla.
Doesn't realize? Or doesn't care?
Don't be a player if you hate the game.
Case in point: no advertising nor PR department in the US.
I agree. As brilliant as Elon is, juvenile tweets do him no favors. Bernie's tweet didn't seem targeted at Elon specifically. Elon's response was in poor taste. I hope he deletes it.
Bunch of swear words.
Bernie has been continually targeting Elon. It is specifically who he means when he says "extremely wealthy "

Allow me to illustrate : Full list: site:twitter.com/berniesanders elon - Google Search
Reply to Elon talking about using his own money for space: "Space travel is an exciting idea, but right now we need to focus on Earth and create a progressive tax system so that children don't go hungry, people are not homeless and all Americans have healthcare. The level of inequality in America is obscene and a threat to our democracy."

Reply to Elon anti Bernie meme "Every time Elon Musk pokes fun at government assistance for the 99%, remember that he would be worth nothing without $4.9 billion in corporate welfare. Oh, Elon just l-o-v-e-s corporate socialism for himself, rugged capitalism for everyone else."

Unprompted: "We are in a moment in American history where two guys — Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos — own more wealth than the bottom 40% of people in this country. That level of greed and inequality is not only immoral. It is unsustainable."

Reply to Elon not favoring another stimulus payout :" What a hypocrite. Elon Musk has received billions in corporate welfare from U.S. taxpayers. Now he wants to stop 30 million Americans who lost jobs from receiving $600 a week in unemployment benefits, while his wealth has gone up by $46.7 billion over the past 4 months. Pathetic."

Unprompted : "Donald Trump's tax bill in 2017: $750 Elon Musk's tax bill in 2018: $0 Amazon's tax bill in 2018: $0 Average American's tax bill in 2017: $12,200 We've got a tax code that is rigged in favor of the rich and large corporations. The time for them to pay their fair share is NOW."

Response to Tweet on tax rates: "True tax rates of billionaires: Warren Buffett: 0.10% Jeff Bezos: 0.98% Michael Bloomberg: 1.30% Elon Musk: 3.27% Tax rate for working class Americans: 24.2% Tax the billionaires. Make them pay their fair share. Rebuild our nation's crumbling infrastructure."

Unprompted mega thread : "While 40 million Americans face eviction, Elon Musk has nearly tripled his wealth over the past four months and now has a net worth of more than $70 billion."

Unprompted: "The very, very rich are getting much richer during the pandemic: $73 billion: Jeff Bezos $45 billion: Elon Musk $31 billion: Mark Zuckerberg $28 billion: Bill Gates $19 billion: L Page $19 billion: Sergey Brin Total: $215 billion Tax their wealth. Break up Big Tech"

Unprompted : "We can no longer tolerate a system that allows a billionaire like Elon Musk to gain $10.3 billion in one day, while 30 million unemployed workers are denied $600 a week to pay the rent and put food on the table. We need an economy that works for all, not just the 1%. #TaxTheRich"

"While 92 million can't afford health care, the 4 richest Americans are now worth $512.8 billion: - Jeff Bezos: $193 billion - Bill Gates: $122 billion - Mark Zuckerberg: $101 billion - Elon Musk: $96.8 billion It's time to tax the billionaire class and expand Medicare to all."

Reply to CNN :"And one out of four Americans can't afford to fill the prescriptions their doctor has prescribed them. Let's tax Mr. Musk and Mr. Bezos so that they finally pay their fair share of taxes, and invest that money into the many, many long-neglected needs of working class Americans."

I'll stop now,
 
Elon knows exactly what he’s doing.

He knows we can’t go on with this narrative about billionaires being the cause of the problems we have as a society.

He knows the problem is the government and the people in charge, and others profiting from this situation. They always been the problem while always pointing the finger at others.

He will make his points and the youth and people that are just realizing this, will take actions when time comes.

Crazy how so many think they have a better idea what Elon should do. And crazy to think everyone is concerned for the short term effect on their gains, not on doing the right things. Humans, we all are.

Trust Elon, he proved he’s not thinking about himself. He’s thinking about doing the right thing.

If not Elon, who’s going to do it? Like always, he’s in a position that he can’t avoid doing exactly what he’s doing.
 
😭😭😭 So the price will go up from when you ordered it. I get that.

If'n when my Model X Plaid becomes available, I'm thinking of asking them what the latest price at the time they contact me is and offering to pay that instead of what it was back when I ordered it. Just because Tesla and TSLA has been very good to me and it's just the right thing to do, and IMHO many on this thread could easily, and might want to do the same thing too.

Just take the deal Tesla offers and invest the extra money in a few more Tesla shares!
 
It's the weekend, so maybe the mods will indulge me...
Elon's tax payments mean nothing to the insatiable US government. According to this source, the US spent $40B on Nov 10, 2021, a typical day from the looks of the data. That's $1.7B per hour. Even as the richest man on earth, his taxes just can't matter on that ridiculous scale.

No, this is about public perception and Elon willing to do his "fair share". He must feel confident that the future holds significant future gains that will enable him to fund his intra planetary travel goals, even while he pisses away billions to the US government to waste.


Granted, Elon is very much in tune with public perception and makes the choices that he feels will further the goals of speeding up the transition to sustainable energy and becoming a multi-planetary species.

He's been very right about so many things, I have no intention of second-guessing him now.

Tesla will continue to grow, and we would be well served to relax while this episode plays out. Once it is in the rear view mirror the reason behind his antics of late may become more obvious.


About US Federal Taxes

As for the insatiable US Government, several attempts have been made over the decades to trace what happens to collected US federal taxes. The GAO has never been successful in completing an audit of the IRS. Every indication supports how US federal taxes collected are simply removed from circulation permanently. Federal tax collection is the most effective method for governing the rate of inflation of a fiat currency from behind the scenes. (The IRS and the Federal Reserve were created simultaneously in 1913 and work as two sides of the same coin.)

By every indication, none of what is collected goes into any account that could be applied toward paying for anything. This is the "beauty" (ahem) of a fiat monetary system and is why the method employed within such a system is simply to create more as needed, while removing via the illusion of taxation enough to prevent runaway inflation.

The common perception most folks have of the US federal tax system provides a warm, fuzzy feeling that they have traded their labor to pay tax to fund the government. To my knowledge there is little to support this notion of "collected taxes being spent" as being based in reality.

I'm okay with paying my fair share to avoid the fate of other nations who did not plan their fiat money systems as well. I just hope that those in positions of influence and power understand their purpose and can curb their exuberance for rampant creation of money in order to delay the fate which all other experiments in monetary debasement throughout history have eventually met.
 
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Agree with this. What is surprising is that the legacy automakers did not move sooner.

The auto industry has a relatively slow clock speed giving them plenty of time and the investments required normally exclude startups. The Model S hit in 2012 and they did nothing. Investment in a few decent compelling models then, even if unprofitable would have put them in a much better position to be profitable on EV's today. Having worked in a legacy manufacturer I know they will usually not invest in anything that does not have a strong clear path to profitability.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out and I am sure there will be future books written about the total disruption of the auto industry.

Tesla's target of of 20M vehicles by 2030 is 4-20x times the EV target of any single large legacy manufacturer. I think GM's target of 5M by 2030 is the highest, but I doubt they will actually hit it.

By that point Tesla will continue to dominate and only your EV share will matter moving forward
The Innovators Dilemma that @The Accountant references above is the exact reason why it is NOT a surprise that legacy automakers did not move sooner with EVs. That’s what the whole Clayton Christensen theory is about. Essentially all companies are built in a manner that ensures they do not disrupt themselves. It takes a very special management team to successfully “self-disrupt“ against all the inbuilt biases and shareholder desires not to.
 
Musk has a small number of weaknesses, one of them is not realising that the US works by lobbying and the optimum thing to do is to cultivate politicians on both sides.
Doesn’t matter what politicians say but what they do. For example on a state level because of dealers influence Tesla can’t sell freely.
So far the product is to good but one day this oversight may hurt Tesla a lot more if adversaries use their political influence to actively thwart Tesla.
I would say not buying politicians is hardly a weakness....actually a strong virtue IMHO.
Plenty of slimy CEOs around if you want someone to do the "optimum" thing...like fly them to an island for "recreation"

I love the fact I know where Elon stands on many subjects...he is pretty clear...unlike sleaze balls.
 
Not sure it matters. Knowingly, unknowingly, it's still unacceptable and because other EVs were never designed to be compatible with the SC network, it's a really problem with opening up the system to the existing fleet of non Tesla EVs. I hope that the pilot will provide Tesla with the information they need to decide whether to and/or how to open the network on a larger scale. Ironically and selfishly, having to wait for a non Tesla to supercharge at a Tesla SC station will likely always enrage me.

I think the simple answer is to open it up only to cars that don't block. A nose in Leaf isn't an issue. If some other non Tesla EV is known to only be able to charge by blocking don't allow that brand/model to charge there.

I guarantee you that I won't be charging any longer than the Tesla next to me if I ever charge a non Tesla at a supercharger. I'll get the minimum charge I need and move on down the road.

Keep that surcharge/subscription in play for the non Tesla's and the vast majority will only use it for emergencies. Heck bump the surcharge up if the location is over 50% in use.

We don't need cheap charging or priority in queue. Tesla cars can have the spots if it's busy. The point of opening the network that I see as a big benefit is so we can hop over charging deserts in low usage areas.
 
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I hope I'm misunderstanding something about this because it sounds like Elon thinks he's teaching someone a lesson. If he thinks that, I suddenly have a big concern about his judgement.
I don’t really understand the point Elon is trying to make here…?

Asking if he should sell some more shares as a critical response? I’m sure Bernie and every other billionaire critic would be 100% fine with Elon selling all his shares and paying the resulting hundreds of billions in taxes.

(Maybe Elon has read Atlas Shrugged one time too many)
 
I don’t really understand the point Elon is trying to make here…?

Asking if he should sell some more shares as a critical response? I’m sure Bernie and every other billionaire critic would be 100% fine with Elon selling all his shares and paying the resulting hundreds of billions in taxes.

Probably his way of trying to get Bernie off his back and to focus on other billionaires. The more he sells/pays the less he can be targeted until other billionaires, such as Bezos and Gates and Zuckerberg, have done similarly. Cascading effect would not be good for markets, which ultimately hurts the non-billionaire investor class, of which Bernie and colleagues are a part, as well as millions of Americans with 401ks.
 
@Troy apparently has MIIT data from China confirming an increase in M3 production in October beyond what is expected from known manufacturing capacity. It will be interesting to see if increased production is verified.

Given Troy's reaction on twitter and him having the production numbers, I think we can assume Oct production numbers were just as high as the 54k domestic sales/exports, maybe even slightly higher.

So yeah, I'm fairly confident in 180k out of Shanghai this quarter with a decent chance at some upside to that. I think we can also assume Shanghai will hit that 1 million annual production rate by late 2022.
 
3) Tunnels. Tunnels will not only make more of a fundamental change to quality of life as it reduces traffic and reduces cars on city streets, but it will fundamentally change the way people live, work and play. When you can travel anywhere in an entire MSA in 15 minutes, you can live, work and play anywhere within an entire region.
I'd say that tunnels will have the least and slowest impact on a per person and per mile basis.
 
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Even being a die-hard Tesla/TSLA fan, this just didn't sit well with me, considering I've mentioned the rattle in the car previously and they were "unable to duplicate it". And I don't have superman hearing.

Deal with it. Sounds like you are a prime contender to buy a competitor's vehicle for your next car. The choice is yours.

I hope you don't find my opinion offensive as it's not intended that way. It's more of a first-principles way to look at the problem. Tesla has no reason to deal with such minor niggles - they are spending their effort on much bigger things and it won't slow them down one bit if you decide you like the competitors better. I know it's not a minor niggle to you but the world does not revolve around you. Deal with it. No offense intended. Your choice is to deal with it or go somewhere else. That's just a fact and obviously, Tesla is telling you they are cool with that.

IMO, those who disagree with this don't understand where Tesla stands and where they are going. The customer is not always right nor does it make sense to bribe the customer with free work over such minor things because it's more efficient to offer the customer such good fundamental value to begin with that the customer has no choice but to assume the little stuff.

My three-plus year old Model 3 Performance finally developed it's first dash rattle. And, guess what? I didn't even contact Tesla to ask them about it, I plan to remove my dash and identify the places to stick a little self-adhesive felt to stop the rattle. If I was not mechanically inclined (and didn't want to re-finish the wood dash trim anyway) I would just pay Tesla the quoted $168 to do it for me (that's a very good price, BTW). I would weigh this minor expense when it came time to chose my next car and, guess what, I think Tesla will still come out ahead in value offered.

Don't sweat the small stuff, Tesla is changing the world and they know what they are doing here. Sometimes it's best to leave the old ways of doing things behind when they have outlived their usefulness. The old cliche', "Take care of the customer and they will take care of you" is an idea born from a weak position. If your products are a good enough value you can tell the customer to take it or leave it. We will take care of the big stuff, don't bother us with the occasional rattle three years after the purchase. People who disagree with this are using rigid thinking and are unlikely to change. Let them buy the competitors products.
 
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I hadn't seen that Q&A previously. It's not obvious that CFR §242.201(c) would prohibit someone from marking a short sale short-exempt when the uptick rule is not in effect so long as they ensure it really is at or above the best national bid. It uses the same language for when it may be done as 201(d) does but that Q&A clearly shows that the SEC thinks otherwise even though doing so should have no actual effect on anything. Perhaps if you did it milliseconds before the uptick rule was triggered it could matter so that's why they prohibit it when the rule is not in effect.

When I was talking about "baskets" of trading, I was referring to CFR §242.201(d)7(iii)B which the SEC apparently does think is OK to mark short-exempt whether or not the uptick rule is in effect (per the Q&A you linked), although it still has no effect on the actual trade if the rule is not in effect.

So I guess that means that either a lot of the trading marked short-exempt when the uptick rule is not in effect is either considered a violation by the SEC or they are all CFR §242.201(d) exemptions. I can't imagine very much volume for 210(d) exceptions except for the odd-lot liquidation (to facilitate fractional share trading?) and basket trading. Maybe people who are long the stock but have lent it to short sellers get to use the (d)1 exemption - there could be significant volume there. Regardless, "short exempt" still means exempt from the uptick rule (201), not exempt from the borrow/locate rule (203) as I've been saying all along.

I would also direct @Artful Dodger 's attention to question 5.1 in the link that you ( @mongo ) provided. Not that it will help.
 
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Yeah, I am scared of the "corporate" word, as that is how all of Tesla competitors got to where they are today. I know a lot about how company greed invites "competition" and destroys the habitual infinite demand assumptions a business is based on. Ford loyalty today may be based on how Model T prices went down for common man alignment - over the objection of business types of the day. Tesla may be choosing the wrong side of history.
But still, the call is Tesla's alone, what to do. They will not ask you or me first, count on it!
In fact, I do count on it; would never invest in a company that had me on the board of directors (hat tip to Groucho Marx) ;)

If we don't like the way they swing we can just sell our shares and leave any time.

And with that, let's leave this subject.
 
Granted, Elon is very much in tune with public perception and makes the choices that he feels will further the goals of speeding up the transition to sustainable energy and becoming a multi-planetary species.

He's been very right about so many things, I have no intention of second-guessing him now.

Tesla will continue to grow, and we would be well served to relax while this episode plays out. Once it is in the rear view mirror the reason behind his antics of late may become more obvious.


About US Federal Taxes

As for the insatiable US Government, several attempts have been made over the decades to trace what happens to collected US federal taxes. The GAO has never been successful in completing an audit of the IRS. Every indication supports how US federal taxes collected are simply removed from circulation permanently. Federal tax collection is the most effective method for governing the rate of inflation of a fiat currency from behind the scenes. (The IRS and the Federal Reserve were created simultaneously in 1913 and work as two sides of the same coin.)

By every indication, none of what is collected goes into any account that could be applied toward paying for anything. This is the "beauty" (ahem) of a fiat monetary system and is why the method employed within such a system is simply to create more as needed, while removing via the illusion of taxation enough to prevent runaway inflation.

The common perception most folks have of the US federal tax system provides a warm, fuzzy feeling that they have traded their labor to pay tax to fund the government. To my knowledge there is little to support this notion of "collected taxes being spent" as being based in reality.

I'm okay with paying my fair share to avoid the fate of other nations who did not plan their fiat money systems as well. I just hope that those in positions of influence and power understand their purpose and can curb their exuberance for rampant creation of money in order to delay the fate which all other experiments in monetary debasement throughout history have eventually met.

That's a very interesting tax theory you have presented there behind the spoiler. It meshes well with what I know about how our economic system works but I suspect it's a little more complicated than presented and it comes down to needing to balance the "books". But the general concept makes a lot of sense. Do you have more supporting evidence?
 
I was sitting on my hands rather than responding to this, until I read downthread as far as it took to notice someone chiming in, so -

this one doesn't pass the nonsense test. My grad-school uncle, in Berlin from 1929 though 1933, remained giddy the rest of his life on relating how, out of sheer brazenness and in the face of the impossibility his cohorts claimed it to be, he invited the great Professor to speak to his kaffeeklatsch...and he accepted! Einstein was certainly high atop his well-deserved pedestal then.
antisemitism was running strong in Germany in that era, and his science was mocked as Jewish science,
he had no choice but to run away from germany in 1933.
 
Unprompted: "We are in a moment in American history where two guys — Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos — own more wealth than the bottom 40% of people in this country. That level of greed and inequality is not only immoral. It is unsustainable."
This statistic is often used but it's so misleading and useless because I'm pretty sure it doesn't exclude the people that have debt.

About 15% of the bottom half is un debt and it takes the wealth of next 20% to offset this debt.

So to summarize,
A newborn is wealthier than the bottom 35%,
We all are wealthier than the bottom 35%
And 20% of the people that belong in the bottom 35% are actually wealthier than the bottom 35%
 

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