Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

> "1000x is conservative. TSLA is going way past the moon." Claims that Elon is essentially trying to form a post-scarcity world and a replacement for government for that future.

A market cap of 1 Quadrillion? That's 10x the entire global GDP.

 

[hacer]

Anyone who has to sell (includes retirees living off TSLA) would be hurt. They could be selling at 1200 instead of sub 1000.

The same class above would also be unable to buy the dip.

Those same people could have sold at $1172 or higher on Nov 8, or Nov 9, *after* the public announcement and Twitter poll results about Elon selling was known. Why didn't they sell then? That is just 6% below the all-time intra-day high price TSLA ever traded at.

Should all shareholders be guaranteed by the CEO that they can sell nearer to all time highs than 6%, and if they fail to predict that in advance the CEO is to blame for their failure? Because that seems to be what you are saying.

Or maybe you think CEOs should be prohibited from selling any shares without a 51% ? 100%? shareholder vote that says it's OK.

 

[Accident]

I would say if Model 3 dates werent pulled in that it would indicate Austin production can be figured in.

Delivery dates for the Model 3 SR are also being moved up for most people. A lot of reports HERE of orders placed in September or October with estimated delivery dates for this month or December before Austin goes live.

 

[Krugerrand]

Do these delivery date pullins indicate any consumer hesitance from EV incentives, or production ramps and parts availability easing?

*sigh*. Somebody just say the word.

 

[Prunesquallor]

“House Democrats hope to begin debate as soon as Wednesday on a roughly $2 trillion proposal to overhaul the country’s health care, education, climate, immigration and tax laws, aiming to adopt the sweeping measure by the end of the week.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/11/16/house-democrats-budget-reconciliation/

 

[Todd Burch]

> "1000x is conservative. TSLA is going way past the moon." Claims that Elon is essentially trying to form a post-scarcity world and a replacement for government for that future.

That's nuts. It would make many of us here multi-billionaires. Sure would be nice, but I choose to live in reality.

 

[Mengy]

> "1000x is conservative. TSLA is going way past the moon." Claims that Elon is essentially trying to form a post-scarcity world and a replacement for government for that future.

If he really believes that, then how much of what else he says is just as ludicrous and nonsensical?

 

[thx1139]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460650774556463110

last Q had 18.

And the last one departed Shanghai on August 27th. So 11 more days for additional to leave Shanghai to have similar schedule

 

[Artful Dodger]

A market cap of 1 Quadrillion? That's 10x the entire global GDP.

While its true that Tesla will likely be confined to the Solar system for some number of Centuries, the mere GLOBE is just a fraction of their TAM in the coming decades (no, not the coming Century). Mars, NEO asteroid mining, and in-situ resource extraction on the moon of the gas- and ice-giants.

Long-term, however, I do expect Tesla to put 'bots on Exo-planets. In prep for our arrival, you understand.

Jus' sayin'...

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Such reactions do concern me. Perhaps the largest single risk with TSLA is the ancillary impacts of volatility. High volatility tied to a 'story stock' accentuates the risk. People who have temporary success, often for extended periods of multiple years, grow to have high confidence in their laity to understand how to capitalize on MMD, triple witching hours and all the myriad technical 'measures of merit'. When one hugely successful person is prominent many of us forget about Tony de Angelis, Bernie Madoff, Long Term Capital Management, Deutsche Bank, AIG and all the others. That invariably ends out poorly, sometime... even though precise timing tends to be difficult or even impossible.

With Tesla (and SpaceX) we have a genuine defining moment which has gigantic potential. Others that did similar things in industrial terms included McCormick, Ford, Edison, Westinghouse but also Xerox, Kodak and what ended out as Penn Central. All those are just a handful of US examples.

Stories fit right in with all of these, just as they do with Tesla. Oddly, perhaps, all of them also went through periods of high volatility that made and lost fortunes.
The ones who lost rarely did so without taking margin loans and pursuing 'technical' approaches. Or course a few of us keep pointing out this risks and @AudubonB
even shared family history.

While in graduate school I studied under one of those Nobel Prize winners. I even had a seminar from the FOMC secretary when Nixon dropped the ax that helped initiate the 1973 oil crisis. Luckily for me I made my losses almost instantly so they were both small and no permanent blots. To my chagrin when observing the beginnings of the 2008 events I could not convince my then largest client not to buy a huge mortgage originator (option ARM, anybody?) and a famous name investment bank. Luckily for them The ever handy Secretary fo the Treasury and his cohorts fount how to bail them all out. The personal investors were largely annihilated.

Now many of us are giddy with our recent speculative successes. The most technically oriented among us should know that the only people with a true stop-loss are the market makers, for they own the casino. The best individual talent will end out ruing the day. Why? Listen to all of you. Some is good, more is better, only too much is enough. If that colloquialism is too inadequate then ask yourself if you know what the 'boundary conditions' are for your most trusted quantitative techniques. 'boundary conditions' are those distressing results you'll find out about when the future departs the path of the recent past.

Unpredicted earthquakes, floods and fires happen. Supply chain disruptions happen. Accidental death happens. Every one of those can and does trigger departure from historical patterns. Of course I have not mentioned political and regulatory risks. That is the part of history that the vast majority of investors totally ignore. After all it is boring to talk of AT&T, Standard Oil, and so many others. It's much more fun to imagine that Tesla will end out dominating the world vehicular and energy markets.

I am a Tesla bull. I also ensure that no single investment choice can act to destroy my well-being. Foolish advisors do not understand what diversification actually means because they cannot understand how to hedge risk. Their hedges often increase risk rather than reducing it.

I don’t know if you want me to assume the fetal position or stand in the middle of traffic and dare someone to hit me.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have an answer for worries that car buyers will be turned off by Elon's tweets, or panel gaps, or service growing-pains, etc. It goes like this:

Tesla doesn't need them, now or ever.​

The cars are sold out for months. Megapacks are sold out for years. Every week, Tesla's technology gets further ahead, so they can keep selling everything they make... but even if they couldn't, they could keep the production for their robotaxi fleet to replace all 1.4 billion cars on Earth.

Also, I have an answer for worries that stock buyers will be turned off by Elon's tweets, or bad analysts, or media FUD, etc.

TSLA doesn't need them, now or ever.​

Giga Shanghai is still expanding and ramping faster than anyone expected. Berlin and Austin will take production to many millions with greater efficiency, economies of scale, and margins than we have ever seen. The new Lathrop factory will take Megapack production from under 4 to 40 GWh per year. Even bullish analysts are modeling ridiculously slow growth for automotive and nothing from Tesla Energy. The wakeup call to investors will get deafening fairly soon.

Don't worry, be happy, buckle up for a trip to the moon.

I received a lot of push back and disagrees when I said the same thing three years ago. Elon knows what he's doing. Let Elon be Elon. Don't make him tiptoe through the tulips, if he offends someone, big deal. Now, the same concept just get a lot of agreement, "likes" and "loves".

I guess the detractors are just sitting there feeling kind of dazed by Tesla's successes. I mean how could this have happened? Everybody knew Elon Musk was unstable and was going to cause Tesla to fail. How could everybody have been so wrong?

Love it!

 

[larmor]

“House Democrats hope to begin debate as soon as Wednesday on a roughly $2 trillion proposal to overhaul the country’s health care, education, climate, immigration and tax laws, aiming to adopt the sweeping measure by the end of the week.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/11/16/house-democrats-budget-reconciliation/

Otherwise known as: "How to solve global warming and get people back to work by giving handouts to union bosses"

 

[Bet TSLA]

One of the best Joe Justice interviews I've seen yet. Some of it is repeats but we have new color on it.

TL;DW

> Claims that there essentially zero cost to design change at Tesla

> Model 3 & Y body-in-white originally designed by a SpaceX team

> Tesla's automated test and stock price growth literally replaces traditional management. The rapid feedback (positive or null) is essentially Pavlovian positive reinforcement training like a dog would receive.

> The above is possible only with Tesla's deep investment in machine learning and computer vision

> "This tells you as an agile investor, 'This company is winning. It's winning as hard as you can win. I want to put all my money into this company.' But to an institutional investor, it breaks their formula; they don't even have an Excel spreadsheet for it. And they keep shorting TSLA--or they did...now I think they've given up on trying to model it largely."

> Expands on his recent comment on why he genuinely believes TSLA is a thousand-bagger or more from here.

> "1000x is conservative. TSLA is going way past the moon." Claims that Elon is essentially trying to form a post-scarcity world and a replacement for government for that future.

(Y en el mejor canal de Youtube de Tesla para hispanohablantes, pero esta entrevista es en inglés.)

Hmm, Joe Justice. I watched one of his videos and all I saw was a name-dropping, jargon blathering clown who claimed other people's successes for his own because he (claimed he) was in the vicinity when they happened.

Please explain just what it is I should believe he understands. I did see hints of a one size fits all Methodology he imagines is good for whatever ails you.

 

[jbcarioca]

I don’t know if you want me to assume the fetal position or stand in the middle of traffic and dare someone to hit me.

Prefer neither.

 

[woodisgood]

I watched Joe Justice’s interview. I thought it was pretty enlightening if you don’t understand how exactly Tesla works. It illuminates why Tesla’s strengths are what they are and also how some of the perceptions people may have, including others in the auto industry, come to be. While I don’t necessarily care for the person one way or the other (just about all TSLA info out there aside from this thread is self-promoting), a careful observer (which I think he is) would learn a lot working there for one or two months, certainly enough to grasp what makes Tesla unique. So in that sense his commentary was interesting.

As for his valuation, his method for arriving at the 1M stock price was a little suspect.

 

[AudubonB]

I received a lot of push back and disagrees when I said the same thing three years ago. Elon knows what he's doing. Let Elon be Elon. Don't make him tiptoe through the tulips, if he offends someone, big deal. Now, the same concept just get a lot of agreement, "likes" and "loves".

I guess the detractors are just sitting there feeling kind of dazed by Tesla's successes. I mean how could this have happened? Everybody knew Elon Musk was unstable and was going to cause Tesla to fail. How could everybody have been so wrong?

Love it!

Why this position either is dangerous, mere fatuous pap, or both, is instantly demonstrable to everyone. Just replace Mr Musk with your favorite-to-hate politician and think about why this is so. ==>It IS a big deal.<==

 

[dl003]

As for his valuation, his method for arriving at the 1M stock price was a little suspect.

You bet. My PT is only $980k by 2040 and that's already super generous. Uber bulls don't really help anyone.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Otherwise known as: "How to solve global warming and get people back to work by giving handouts to union bosses"

It's annoying but at the same time, the Union part is dead on arrival when it goes to the Senate. Manchin's already signaled that and I've see a couple reports of other Senators that quietly oppose it and would strike it down themselves in need be.

 

[StealthP3D]

Such reactions do concern me. Perhaps the largest single risk with TSLA is the ancillary impacts of volatility. High volatility tied to a 'story stock' accentuates the risk. People who have temporary success, often for extended periods of multiple years, grow to have high confidence in their laity to understand how to capitalize on MMD, triple witching hours and all the myriad technical 'measures of merit'. When one hugely successful person is prominent many of us forget about Tony de Angelis, Bernie Madoff, Long Term Capital Management, Deutsche Bank, AIG and all the others. That invariably ends out poorly, sometime... even though precise timing tends to be difficult or even impossible.

With Tesla (and SpaceX) we have a genuine defining moment which has gigantic potential. Others that did similar things in industrial terms included McCormick, Ford, Edison, Westinghouse but also Xerox, Kodak and what ended out as Penn Central. All those are just a handful of US examples.

Stories fit right in with all of these, just as they do with Tesla. Oddly, perhaps, all of them also went through periods of high volatility that made and lost fortunes.
The ones who lost rarely did so without taking margin loans and pursuing 'technical' approaches. Or course a few of us keep pointing out this risks and @AudubonB
even shared family history.

While in graduate school I studied under one of those Nobel Prize winners. I even had a seminar from the FOMC secretary when Nixon dropped the ax that helped initiate the 1973 oil crisis. Luckily for me I made my losses almost instantly so they were both small and no permanent blots. To my chagrin when observing the beginnings of the 2008 events I could not convince my then largest client not to buy a huge mortgage originator (option ARM, anybody?) and a famous name investment bank. Luckily for them The ever handy Secretary fo the Treasury and his cohorts fount how to bail them all out. The personal investors were largely annihilated.

Now many of us are giddy with our recent speculative successes. The most technically oriented among us should know that the only people with a true stop-loss are the market makers, for they own the casino. The best individual talent will end out ruing the day. Why? Listen to all of you. Some is good, more is better, only too much is enough. If that colloquialism is too inadequate then ask yourself if you know what the 'boundary conditions' are for your most trusted quantitative techniques. 'boundary conditions' are those distressing results you'll find out about when the future departs the path of the recent past.

Unpredicted earthquakes, floods and fires happen. Supply chain disruptions happen. Accidental death happens. Every one of those can and does trigger departure from historical patterns. Of course I have not mentioned political and regulatory risks. That is the part of history that the vast majority of investors totally ignore. After all it is boring to talk of AT&T, Standard Oil, and so many others. It's much more fun to imagine that Tesla will end out dominating the world vehicular and energy markets.

I am a Tesla bull. I also ensure that no single investment choice can act to destroy my well-being. Foolish advisors do not understand what diversification actually means because they cannot understand how to hedge risk. Their hedges often increase risk rather than reducing it.

That's a really good big picture look at investment risks. Especially impressive is how you got all the way through it without mentioning poetry. Not sure how you did that.

 

[Lessmog]

That's a really good big picture look at investment risks. Especially impressive is how you got all the way through it without mentioning poetry. Not sure how you did that.

Tell us, have you been hunting long for that snark?