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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Same here as we have had more minor issues than other cars but nothing that would leave us stranded on the road.

Some how they are not accounting for the lack of maintenance. Even with the minor issues, I spend less time dealing with the Tesla's than with ICE cars overall.
Yes! That's a point many miss. Just like when people complain about charging time on road trips. "Time is money and I can't waste that hour!" Umm, so you are telling me that saving thousands a year in fuel isn't worth 2 extra hours of road trip time a year? Plus oil changes, fuel stops, etc.

I do think Tesla will get to Toyota level build quality and reliability in the near future. I bet the cars coming out of Berlin/Austin will be as good as any other. MIC cars are supposedly really well done as well judging by what our persnickety German friends think of them.

One of those is a reliability issue(s) and two of them are annoyances. Consumer Reports says they were all reliability issues. Another reliability issue is panel gaps. I have bought new cars only since 1989 and have never once checked panel gaps on any car and that includes the 2 Tesla's we have. Yet consumers have been hammered to check Tesla's for inconsistent panel gaps. Never even heard of the idea until I paid attention to Tesla. Made me remember something I found odd with our BMW 530i trunk. Never thought much of it, but now would say hey the trunk wasnt 100% perfect.
That one annoys the crap out of me. As you said nobody cared about gaps before Tesla, and a gap or paint imperfection is NOT a reliability issue. Heck, I'd argue that something like a window switch isn't really one either.
 
Yes it is. It facilitates more people choosing Tesla vehicles, powerwalls, rooftop solar. And other potential Tesla products like home HVAC systems.
that's a stretch ... and similar to Tesla , just because Apple can design and manufacture iphones etc and make is look easy does not mean it is easy ... remember manufacturing is hard , small complex objects at scale is also hard ... there is a reason apple still garners the majority of the profits in the smartphone space
 
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Yes it is. It facilitates more people choosing Tesla vehicles, powerwalls, rooftop solar. And other potential Tesla products like home HVAC systems.

As long as Tesla app works on iPhone and the Androids like samsung. A Tesla phone makes no sense.
Now if starlink figures out something (global, by-pass carriers, works well in urban), a spaceX phone would be something else. cheers!!
 
Ya know, Cramer raises a serious question.

Would Ford--or any other legacy automaker--get a higher market valuation if they were to shut down ICE production and go all-in on BEVs?

The valuations of Rivian and Lucid seem to suggest this could be the case.
WRT Ford (and GM, and others): These 3 companies have an average of around $100B net debt, each. They are on the legacy car treadmill, dependent on generating positive cash flow from a product that is dying and, at the same time having to invest Billions into a new paradigm, of which they know nothing about, nor do they have the corporate structure, engineering, design capability and time frame within which to become relevant in an electric world.
 
It doesn't have to be this way. Obama praised Tesla. Under his administration, government grants (which Tesla paid back early and in full) helped get the Model S made and keep Tesla in business. B**** had the obvious opportunity to use that fact to take some measure of credit for Tesla's success, tout it as a victory for Democratic policies, instead of choosing to pretend that Tesla doesn't exist.
 
It doesn't have to be this way. Obama praised Tesla. Under his administration, government grants (which Tesla paid back early and in full) helped get the Model S made and keep Tesla in business. B**** had the obvious opportunity to use that fact to take some measure of credit for Tesla's success, tout it as a victory for Democratic policies, instead of choosing to pretend that Tesla doesn't exist.
And to relish in a world where politics wasn't quite as vitriolic, that was a grant approved under the Bush administration and nurtured by the Obama administration. A true bipartisan effort. Sigh, I miss those days.
 
WRT Ford (and GM, and others): These 3 companies have an average of around $100B net debt, each. They are on the legacy car treadmill, dependent on generating positive cash flow from a product that is dying and, at the same time having to invest Billions into a new paradigm, of which they know nothing about, nor do they have the corporate structure, engineering, design capability and time frame within which to become relevant in an electric world.
Recently I read that much/most of their debt is from financing customer's car purchases.

I'd like to see a breakdown of manufacturing debt vs. financing debt as these should be regarded differently, shouldn't they?

P.S. To be clear, I'm not defending them. Just pointing out how the debt numbers may not be as bad as they look.
 
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Ray's original tweet had an error -- Model 3 price increase was actually 15,000 CNY (not 2,000) -- about $2300.💰


The China price increase of $,2350 for the Model 3 RWD improves margins as soon as Q1 2022 as the order page shows delivery "January 2022".
This along with the prior price increases in the US that will show up in 2022, bolsters my confidence that we will not see an overall margin drop when Berlin/Austin come on board. It's my belief that Zach and team are aiming for Qtr to Qtr growth on margins even with the ramp up of Berlin/Austin.
 
WRT Ford (and GM, and others): These 3 companies have an average of around $100B net debt, each. They are on Whatthe legacy car treadmill, dependent on generating positive cash flow from a product that is dying and, at the same time having to invest Billions into a new paradigm, of which they know nothing about, nor do they have the corporate structure, engineering, design capability and time frame within which to become relevant in an electric world.

What a load of tosh.
You do know “Detroit’s leading the world in electric vehicles” and that Mary Barra "electrified the entire automobile industry" don't you?
 
It's my belief that Zach and team are aiming for Qtr to Qtr growth on margins.
Wow. I had already set my expectations to: "Tesla has industry leading margins, which are growing, but which will probably take a hit now and again upon ramping new products/production facilities."

If Tesla could just be flat or up regarding margins, that is insanely bullish.
 
My point wasn't that Tesla should make a phone. I don't think they should as it would likely be race to the bottom and turn into a low margin business.

My point was the to capabilities of both companies. If you had to bet on the success of Apple getting into cars or Tesla making a phone, I believe the latter has a much better chance of success. Mainly because Apple lacks the large scale manufacturing for cars. They can go to a 3rd party but will they then be able to innovate the way we see Tesla innovating with cars. (4860, Casings, etc.).

Tesla has everything they need to make a phone, the software, hardware and manufacturing, they just choose not to do it for obvious business reasons.
ok misunderstood your point ...
 
The person who lent their FSD beta car to CNN should lose access to the program. (Ok, that wouldn't look good in the media) The actual video isn't all bad. The driver is a bit of a drama queen but at least says they aren't trying to be negative. Handing beta to a brand new Tesla driver isn't wise. IMO Tesla should require X number of autopilot miles to be added to the program to prevent this exact thing.
 
As you said nobody cared about gaps before Tesla, and a gap or paint imperfection is NOT a reliability issue. Heck, I'd argue that something like a window switch isn't really one either.
Clearly you’ve never had a window switch fail on you going through a drive-through with the window stuck in the open position when it was -40 degrees out. Then faced with a 120km drive to the nearest service centre. I think it was -25C for the drive. The plastic I taped to the opening didn’t last even a quarter of the trip. Just sayin’.

It was a VW. Diesel. They’re still not forgiven. For the lies. Or for the window. Go Tesla!
 
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Recently I read that much/most of their debt is from financing customer's car purchases.

That's true- so a lot of the OMG SO MUCH DEBT for legacy is.... not accurate. I mean, they do have real debt, but it's a TINY fraction of overall.


They have lots of OTHER issues going forward in the transition, but this isn't remotely near as significant a one as some seem to think with a 5 second glance at the "total debt" number.



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I'd like to see a breakdown of manufacturing debt vs. financing debt as these should be regarded differently, shouldn't they?


You can in their own financials-
For example

That's Ford Q3- on page 19 they list "Company excl. Ford Credit" debt as 25.6 billion, with (in same excl. Ford credit category) cash as 31.5 billion and liquidity as 47.4 billion- resulting in cash net of debt at 5.9 billion.

If you INCLUDED Ford credit debt would be like 6x higher or something.