Troy upped his Q4 estimate by 20k.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
They'll push it further by saying it's starving the grid and causing outages, need to slow down...
Hence why solar is so important along with the batteries - all has to ramp together IMO.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
We forecast global miles traveled to grow to 15 trillion miles by 2030 (vs. 12tn today), 20 trillion miles by 2040 and 29tn by 2050. Assuming a value per mile of anything above $0.50/mile suggests a multi deca-trillion TAM longer term. In addition to the direct monetary value for transport services, the amount of time humanity spends in cars is very significant. On our calculations, humans (driver+ passenger) spend more than 600bn hours in cars ever year equivalent to 68 million human hours inside cars per year. What's the value of a human hour of time traveling in an Autonomous car? We don't know. But 600bn hours times anything is a very large number.
Adam Jonas on FSD opportunity.
Adam Jonas on FSD opportunity.
Several auto manufacturers have had abysmal experiences as a result of lease resale values far below residual values.Going forward, if Lease Return value plunges due to a precipitous drop in new ICE sales, then Ford's long term debt may in fact be MUCH WORSE as it looks.
Ford's solvency is literally skating on THIN ICE...
Cheers!
The BMW E85 first launch of IDrive was one such case:
There are many other cases, GM V 4-6-8 is infamous:
The Impossibly Disastrous 4-6-8 Cadillac Engine Of 1981
A comedy of errors is all you can call Cadillac's 4-6-8 cylinder deactivation engine.
www.motorbiscuit.com
The ones for manufacturers famed for high quality are the ones that tend to be mostly out of the public eye.
There the 1991 Toyota Previa and the 2012 Scion IQ are famous loss-makers.
Brand by brand there are these events.
Both Ford and GM are charting perilous courses.
We already see that when GM has revived the dead Hummer to deliver another almost certain-to-fail product. GM always manages to introduce immature technology and bizarre niche models. The Hummer EV will almost inevitably join the Buick Reatta and Chevrolet Bolt, by ignoring either market or technology or both.
Clearly VAG is entering dire straits (not an allusion to one of my favorite bands) with several others close behind.
In my opinion the major risks for Tesla may be political risk from hostile US Federal government, and frightened German unions and competitors.
lafrisbee
Active Member
the "joke" Maxpain is $995.
The eyeballin' the chart(s) Maxpain is just a little itty bit below $1100.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It's amazing how spending a few dollars on advertising can transform a business! Why they waited this long, I'll never know!
Errr...wait. You mean sales continue to expand without spending a dollar on advertising?
LightngMcQueen
Aspirationally Rational
This reminds me when Apple made iTunes centre of its experience... it unleashed an extremely profitable decade of growth into products and services nobody even imagined earlier.
Though eventually iTunes team become rent seeking empire within Apple, sucking joy from any experience it touched. It took Apple way too long to cull iTunes. I hope Musk will still be around as an advisor in 2032 to tell Tesla when this app needs to go.
By then Tesla app will control your car, your home, your neuralink brain feed and your herd of Bots
Yep:
The Manchin "We don't pick winners" version.
Hopefully they fix the "Sedan 50,000 limit" part that screws over the Model S and Lucid.
Better yet, ask them to calculate how much time they spend at the gas station each year for their weekly gasup. Then compare that number to the hour spent supercharging once or twice a year. If time is money, how can you not buy an electric car?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I see “TAM” and my investment management hat reads “Total Assets under Management”; once seen, I cannot unsee it. Similarly, when I see “GM” my default read is General Motors, meaning my little brain only sclerotically switches to Gross Margin (that example is far easier than “TAM”).
This is the reason we have abjured all many, many times to be reader-friendly when using abbreviations. This most especially applies when showing us outsiders’ writings (I believe you said this is from Adam Jonas), as had there been a edifying first-comment, it could have been higher up, in something not shown in your post.
Thank you………
Perhaps offsetting some of CNN's ridiculous video exposure today, we have iJustine (6.8M Youtube subscribers, 1.7M Twitter followers) finding a Plaid S in inventory, impulse-buying it, picking up same day, and putting out a very flattering video. Crazy world we live in.
LightngMcQueen
Aspirationally Rational
This is extremly common experience among computer programmers.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Exactly! Debt reduces your options. This is a corporate example of why debt is bad even when you think you have everything under control. The lack of debt provides freedom and that freedom can be leveraged to make even more money than would be possible by leveraging the debt.
Taking on debt to become wealthy can work OK when done well but it limits options and often prevents the use of vision to become wealthier more quickly and easier. It can allow one to become wealthier than they would have but it also adds more risk of failure. There is a time and place for debt but it can be used most powerfully when used sparingly and as a backstop, not as a direct way to add to your returns. Had legacy auto avoided taking on big debt by being more fiscally conservative they could still be dominant today and would have retained the required flexibility to have made the transition to EV at the perfectly correct time.
That's it, I'm getting an iPhone (mostly for the damn camera and Lidar). Maybe it will work with the Apple car too - no conflict there.I’m not sure about the Beta, but there definitely is not yet feature parity across the iOS and Android apps. That’s pretty common for app developers, but I do think that Tesla has a particular duty to keep Android on par with iOS.
They shouldn’t exact too much punishment on those that were bright enough to choose a Tesla, but somehow went with the inferior phone OS.
mltv
Member
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
To add more color to other responses:
The exponential increase in EV demand is already catching them by surprise. It is for good reason that we call them Lagacy Auto. This will come with an exponential decrease in ICEV demand as the market goes into a vicious feedback loop of decreasing consumer interest, decreasing economies of scale, closing gas stations, etc. RethinkX (Tony Seba's research team) has detailed analysis on this.
If ICEVs are worth less than originally expected when the OEMs get them back from lease it will be hard to fully repay the loans they used to finance their lease fleet. In other words the net depreciation plus interest expense of each vehicle will have been more the net profit of the lease fees the customer paid.
Similarly, consumer auto loans sometimes result in defaults. Every lender including the Lagacy OEMs knows this, so when calculating the terms of the loan to offer the customer, they factor this in and balance it against the estimated resale value of the repossessed cars. Again, if the used cars are worth substantially less than originally projected, their lending program will be underwater.
Essentially, their delusional, fanciful belief that combustion engine demand will remain strong throughout this decade is resulting in consumer finance underwriting programs that are catastrophically underestimating depreciation liabilities. I genuinely do not see how most of these companies will evade bankruptcy.
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mltv
Member
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