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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I've always been most interested in the top end of any demographic. Something to aspire to. But I agree that adding something now would mess up the data.
One question I'd add is what the estimated annual roi is against total TSLA investment.
thesmokingman
Active Member
It's amazing the degree at which Mary bold faced lies. The interviewer just confirmed you have 9.x% market share in the US to Tesla's 63%...
There must be other strings attached to the German subsidy.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
(On-topic weekend diversion)
Oftentimes in this thread, people coyly suggest how many shares they own, or at least how many they recently purchased ("Just picked up 50 more chairs on the dip!!"). Others give opinions evidently based on years of investing experience. I'm always curious about the experience behind all the opinions, and I'm guessing you are too. And - let's be honest - I want to know where my TSLA investments fit in compared to those of others on the forum! Well, guess no more.
..... TMC investor survey
This 10 multiple-choice question survey is in Google Forms because we need several questions to effectively profile the community. It's anonymous so I don't believe there's any way for someone to maliciously connect your response with your personal finances - in other words, you're not putting your investments at risk (anyone correct me if I'm wrong). Summary results are visible after completing.
Please fill in - thank you!
that asset question is a little silly on the 75%/76%+ divider. I have well less than a million in non TSLA assets, so all it takes is to have more than $3.x million (under $4 million) in TSLA to have over 76% there.
I'm not there yet, but I could see that happening in a few years.
Anyone in flyover country in the US or anyone in another country where the cost of living is low could easily be in that top bucket and still have a house, multiple cars, and such.
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Yep. Tesla doesn't need subsidies or loans anymore because they've become a money printing machine, so why restrict themselves with terms and red tape?
RobDickinson
Active Member
There are, they want the plant to be the first kicking out and using 4680s etc, but due to delays Austin etc will be so rather than hold up use elsewhere (which has its own costs) Tesla has chosen not to go with this subsidy
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
My initial thought was that the subsidies came with strings attached and they wouldn't necessarily be limited to sharing. The attached conditions could be onerous in other ways.
Any obligation that distorts the natural order of time is onerous. Tesla is the only company that appears to value time more than linearity (code word for schedules so padded that any and everyone can meet them).
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Don't make the mistake of using MSRP to determine how close a competitor is to matching the value offered by Tesla. MSRP is set based on how much the manufacturer thinks the market will bear, not how much it costs to produce. Tesla has great margins on the Model Y and thus a lot of flexibility in lowering the price if it's necessary to in order to compete effectively as higher production volumes are reached while the sense I get is that would just cost the competitors to lose more money on each sale. Notice I said "if it's necessary" to lower prices. Because with the amount of superiority the Model Y has over the Mach-e, and the long waiting list for the Model Y, it's not a given that higher volumes would require price cutting.
Also, I've read that the Mach-e MSRP barely leaves anything for the dealerships which is why most of them are marking them up above MSRP and letting them sit on their lots until a profitable sucker comes by. Try to buy a limited production Mach-e for MSRP. Dealers are hanging onto what they have to try to make more profit.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
For those looking for an Omicron summary:
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thesmokingman
Active Member
Ofc there are, there's nothing free in life or business.
Actually, the U.S. Government’s Investment in Tesla Was a Disaster, and Cost Taxpayers at Least $1 Billion
In 2009, as the financial crisis raged and General Motors and Chrysler plunged toward bankruptcy, Tesla Motors faced a seemingly impossible task:...
This is correct. There is a FT article that discusses it. Berlin battery factory had to be the first source of 4680s for production globally. Tesla likely did the math and decided delayed production would bring the value of the subsidy down sufficiently that it was not worth it.
The Slate article above did teach me one thing. I was unaware that paying back the earlier loan avoided an option conversion which certainly does bring to question Musk's predicating that purely on good civic mindedness. The swapout of a hypothetical opportunity cost for a higher loan rate with the simplification of 'cost taxpayers over 1B$' is also misleading clickbait.
I do think Musk is being evasive and perhaps misleading overall, and my respect for him is downgraded a smidge, but I don't have a problem with any of Tesla's choices.
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jkirkwood001
Active Member
Elon says the "subsidy" had unfavorable terms. Nothing to do with not qualifying.
1.5m/yr is 125k vehicles/month - compared to c.53k GigaShanghai vehicles sold in October this year. Does that seem reasonable when the next phase of construction hasn't started yet?
The DoE loan included the stock option clause to encourage early repayment, not as a means to generate profits. That Slate article is informative, but the authors attitude toward Tesla is nauseating.
“The loan program wasn’t intended to generate profit; the goal of the program is to provide affordable financing so that America’s entrepreneurs and innovators can build a strong, thriving and growing clean energy industry in the United States,” says a department spokeswoman.
“The loan program wasn’t intended to generate profit; the goal of the program is to provide affordable financing so that America’s entrepreneurs and innovators can build a strong, thriving and growing clean energy industry in the United States,” says a department spokeswoman.
Elon’s decisions integrate information from a lot of life experiences, “seriously”.
There was real investment in applying for and supporting the German subsidy effort.
There was a distortion in application of effort that had a cost. Tesla is cutting their losses and doing the right thing for the mission.
I doubt this article will ever be mentioned if ROI is perceived as risky. Critics will not understand. Seriously.
India tells public to shun Musk-backed Starlink until it gets licence
Starlink Internet Services, a division of billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX aerospace company, as it does not have a licence to operate in the country. A government statement issued late on Friday said Starlink had been told to comply with regulations and refrain from "booking/rendering the...
Elon’s decisions integrate information from a lot of life experiences, “seriously”.
There was real investment in applying for and supporting the German subsidy effort.
There was a distortion in application of effort that had a cost. Tesla is cutting their losses and doing the right thing for the mission.
I doubt this article will ever be mentioned if ROI is perceived as risky. Critics will not understand. Seriously.
India tells public to shun Musk-backed Starlink until it gets licence
Starlink Internet Services, a division of billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX aerospace company, as it does not have a licence to operate in the country. A government statement issued late on Friday said Starlink had been told to comply with regulations and refrain from "booking/rendering the...www.yahoo.com
I would note he has spoken not so much about the EV subsidy in general which by any reasonable accounting of how much it will accelerate supply is an extraordinarily inefficient use of public funding, but in their favor. Elon is a cunning libertarian mind that is oriented to the long future. As such he is utilitarian as well. He will however play with the myths and lesser gods and direct the vox populi.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Not sure what the current Tesla Austin factory building is rated at.
Not sure even Tesla knows for sure at this point, since for example Cybertruck production has not started.
Does that take up more or less volumetric area than traditional production?
Also, even though the Texas area is big, the factory building is 4 levels in some places. That tells you something about the value of co-location and also Teslas ambition: Why build 4 stories/levels when they have that much land? They are just that ambitious!
I expect another huge factory building to start at the Austin site, before long. Why not? They have the demand, and the money. And while good engineers are always a scarce ressource, buildings are a known quantity: Add land, materials and time, then you get capacity.
Tesla has done a lot of work on building factories. They have their own group of factory building specialists, who are responsible for planning and constructing Teslas factories worldwide. A lot of accumulated learning there to be sure.
And they are very agile: You can actually see that when you watch the GF videos - a lot of changes.
From a traditional perspective it looks stupid: They do cement-foundations for some pillars, then ~2 weeks after, that cement is broken up, then add another couple of weeks and the pillars are back, but now moved 3-4 meters compared to original placement.
So why didn't they just plan ahead? I imagine that new plans were agreed between production and the building team, so they just adjusted the building in near real time.
Another Austin example: The stamping hall didn't have windows, just concrete walls. Then a couple of weeks ago the relevant wall segments were partially removed, and now windows are in place. Tesla decided that windows should be there, and so now they are.
Tesla is not afraid of moving quickly and making mistakes. In fact, to not move quickly is perhaps the worst mistake.
The factories are continually updated for whatever Tesla decides to optimize for. And if the most important thing is higher capacity, then they optimize for that.
Then lastly, the X-factor: Bots.
Consider that even with Teslas extreme level of real-time coordination between manufactoring and building planning and execution, moving atoms takes a while. Even with Teslas speed, factories take years to build and fully ramp. (And if bureacracy is added, even longer)
So even Shanghai and Texas, from buying the land to fully ramped: around 5 years.
How much progress can Tesla achieve manufacturing bots in 5 years? How much will using bots in factories add to production capacity, worldwide?
We don't know but long-term, using bots will make production capacity trend upwards without needing more factories.
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