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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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if someone told you that you had to design something to knock in nails then most often using something ‘like one of the hammers at Home Depot‘ as analogy works rather than starting from scratch and pondering the nature of nails and wood in your particular state and situation and etc. But in a market scenario if you happen to design a better hammer which is unlikely you get a big payoff but most likely you fail to notice something surprising. The more formal coding of this is parametric (1st principals) vs non parametric (analogy). it’s the difference between predicting 2030 vehicles by guessing rather without reference to other examples what the regression shape is vs. finding say that Ford had a very similar pattern in 1908-1911 as you did in 2018-2020 and going with that.
My perspective is that a great example of designing without first principles thinking would be designing a better hammer.

The existence of a hammer is admission of a problem with a failure of nail design. The concussive nature of the hammer is not the problem to address even if the market would happily reward a marginally improved hammer. The first principles effort should pivot around why a nail requires a hammer or even better why a nail is needed at all.

The existence of a nail and hammer is an admission of a kind of failure of joinery. It could be viewed that first principles thinking would result in the elimination of nails at some future point. This would be disruptive to certain industries and perhaps lead to further improvements in shelter etc.
 
I'm 50+ too and for me options looks so much like work. I am trying to be retired here! On the other hand I've been a redditor since they started up. And some of you here might remember Digg? 😌



That surprises me too! So many here have an impressive level of detailed knowledge of all kinds of numbers and facts. My brain is not wired for these kind of things. And even less after retirement. 🤪 I'm more on the creative end of the spectrum. Which is what got me hooked on Tesla and all things Elon. Tesla is the most creative car company by far! 😍

Well then considering these features in combination I presume you are looking forward to FSD? (it may have the soul of a certain kitty in it)

2CAC44CA-9417-4C41-B747-9CFF721DED97.jpeg
 
I'm 50+ too and for me options looks so much like work. I am trying to be retired here! On the other hand I've been a redditor since they started up. And some of you here might remember Digg? 😌



That surprises me too! So many here have an impressive level of detailed knowledge of all kinds of numbers and facts. My brain is not wired for these kind of things. And even less after retirement. 🤪 I'm more on the creative end of the spectrum. Which is what got me hooked on Tesla and all things Elon. Tesla is the most creative car company by far! 😍
Tesla options are pretty simple as long as you prefer them that way. Just select call options with over a year until expiry (LEAPS) and watch the money roll in. Same as with the stock, it's best to wait until a pullback to buy in. I'd suggest dipping a toe in first if you ever decide to give them a try.
 
My perspective is that a great example of designing without first principles thinking would be designing a better hammer.

The existence of a hammer is admission of a problem with a failure of nail design. The concussive nature of the hammer is not the problem to address even if the market would happily reward a marginally improved hammer. The first principles effort should pivot around why a nail requires a hammer or even better why a nail is needed at all.

The existence of a nail and hammer is an admission of a kind of failure of joinery. It could be viewed that first principles thinking would result in the elimination of nails at some future point. This would be disruptive to certain industries and perhaps lead to further improvements in shelter etc.

agreed! However surely you see this as high risk high reward to redesign centuries of optimized joinery?
 
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You need to have "0" as an option in this first question... I did have 3200 $TSLA shares at one point earlier this year, but currently hold zero, preferring my stock exposure via LEAPS instead
Yes, I apologize, the survey was titled towards stockholders, not options traders of which I know little. Happy to do a follow-up survey as I think it is too late to enable people to change their anonymous (non-tracked) submissions. Hope this helps!
 
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30k for the first half of 2022 in Berlin is too low imho.
If they target 1,000 per week in January, then no growth would be 26k for the first half (very close to the 30k quoted). That would be a poor ramp.
I am projecting 15k in Q1 and 30k in Q2 for a total of 45k for the first half (the same for Austin)

@SOULPEDL beat me to it.
Agreed. I think it is just a conservative plan for the team to hopefully beat. At the same time they will probably not produce 1000/wk in January and there will probably be some downtime as well. I have been through these things, and initially you tend to have good and bad weeks as things smooth out to a more consistent production.
 
Thanks again to everyone who contributed! If you haven't submitted yet, please go complete the TMC investors survey now. For those who have submitted and want to view the automatic summary, please go to the TMC investors survey summary (please first complete the survey if you haven't already, but do not complete a 2nd time).

Here are some analytics I pulled together from the raw data.

Note bene:
  • To preserve people's privacy, only ranges were requested instead of asking for exact # of shares, exact age, etc. Therefore the results lack granularity, which is why the bubbles line up unnaturally. But hopefully insights are still possible
  • A few people (~10 or 3%) clearly submitted twice without knowing how to view the results. I have omitted duplicates from the statistics
  • 12 members (3.9%) choose not to indicate how many shares they own (sorry I didn't have this option available in the beginning)
Statistics
  • The average shareholder age is 52.2 (± 4 years)
  • The largest share bracket (35.8% of respondents) is of those owning between 1,000 and 3,000 shares (for all age brackets except for 20-30)
  • The average number of shares owned is 5,600 (± 25%)
  • Almost 3/4 (72%) of us are Teslanaires (owning at least $1,000,000 in TSLA) (thank you, Elon!)
  • There are at least 12 members (3.9%) with more than 25,000 shares ($25 M), two of whom are in their 40s (12 also chose not to indicate their # of shares)
  • Almost half (45.9%) trade options. I'm sorry I didn't have better questions to profile this group. Suggestions welcome.
1638119063287.png

  • I don't know for sure, but since Tesla is a young, technical company, it seems the distribution of shareholders by age group represents younger demographics more than older stocks might, say GE
1638120941206.png

  • 251 (82.6%) own both TSLA and a Tesla:
    • 146 (58.2%) bought TSLA shares before they purchased a Tesla
    • 65 (25.9%) bought TSLA shares the same year they bought a Tesla
    • 40 (15.9%) purchased a Tesla before they bought TSLA shares
  • 38 (12.5%) do not own a Tesla vehicle (yet)
  • 12 (4%) currently have their first Tesla on order!
I hope this is informative. Happy weekend!

Any analysis requests?
 
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Why have lots of Model 3 deliveries been pulled forward into December from January if they want to flatten the end of qtr. wave?
Is this just to make this year's 12 month numbers look good and after this we'll see a more relaxed approach?
 
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Change of topic... Here's some fresh Solar Roof data from Az as of yesterday. This does not include Tesla solar panel projects, only the Roofs. (Ironically, panels aren't available due to Int'l shipping issues, only the roofs are available bc they are manufactured here in the US.

Source is Tesla Advisor over the phone.

Solar Roof Projects Underway in Az today:
790 - Interconnection
434 - Docs
172 - Design
159 - Payment
140 - Permits
(There are even more categories I sensed from the conversation, but these were the main ones).

That 790 could be a leading indicator as compared to things like permits. However, these might not yet be funded, IDK. Plus, I'm not clear on which stage that is. Guessing the proposals only - so it's at least serious folks that put $250 down.

I'm bullish on Solar considering Az is not a solar friendly state, and we don't have real forest fires around here with very reliable power. But, Az consumers don't seem to give a damn. We don't know if these are new homes or re-roofs. My quote below seems high considering I already have 2 powerwalls. Est 5-6 months to completion from today.

With factors such as Inflation, availability, and rising energy costs, this is not as stupid as it looks considering the value of our home is ~650K. The roof is pretty important, and that's a lot of juice at 18.8 kW up there!

Also, $45K in labor - how much are they paying roofers now? I thought you could build a whole home for that in labor?

1638119596963.png
 
Why have lots of Model 3 deliveries been pulled forward into December from January if they want to flatten the end of qtr. wave?
Is this just to make this year's 12 month numbers look good and after this we'll see a more relaxed approach?

maybe there were some issues with parts availability that made January look likely, but those issues have been resolved
 
Thanks again to everyone who contributed! If you haven't submitted yet, please go complete the TMC investors survey now. For those who have submitted and want to view the automatic summary, please go to the TMC investors survey summary (please first complete the survey if you haven't already, but do not complete a 2nd time).

Here are some analytics I pulled together from the raw data.

Note bene:
  • To preserve people's privacy, only ranges were requested instead of asking for exact # of shares, exact age, etc. Therefore the results lack granularity, which is why the bubbles line up unnaturally. But hopefully insights are still possible
  • A few people (~10 or 3%) clearly submitted twice without knowing how to view the results. I have omitted duplicates from the statistics
  • 12 members (3.9%) choose not to share how many shares they own (sorry I didn't have this option available in the beginning)
Statistics
  • The average shareholder age is 52.2 (± 4 years)
  • The largest share bracket (35.8% of respondents) is of those owning between 1,000 and 3,000 shares (for all age brackets except for 20-30)
  • The average number of shares owned is 5,600 (± 25%)
  • Almost 3/4 (72%) of us are Teslanaires (owning at least $1,000,000 in TSLA) (thank you, Elon!)
  • There are at least 12 members (3.9%) with more than 25,000 shares ($25 M), one of whom is in their 40s (12 also chose not to indicate their # of shares)
  • Almost half (45.9%) trade options. I'm sorry I didn't have better questions to profile this group. Suggestions welcome.
View attachment 738330
  • I don't know for sure, but since Tesla is a young, technical company, it seems the distribution of shareholders by age group represents younger demographics more than older stocks might, say GE
View attachment 738345
  • 251 (82.6%) own both TSLA and a Tesla:
    • 146 (58.2%) bought TSLA shares before they purchased a Tesla
    • 65 (25.9%) bought TSLA shares the same year they bought a Tesla
    • 40 (15.9%) purchased a Tesla before they bought TSLA shares
  • 38 (12.5%) do not own a Tesla vehicle (yet)
  • 12 (4%) currently have their first Tesla on order!
I hope this is informative. Happy weekend!

Any analysis requests?
One clarification- I live in a house, rent out a condo and yet 90% of my asset is in TSLA;)

Both paid off in last 1 year with proceeds from some timely selling of options - 100% debt free:)
 
One clarification- I live in a house rent out a condo and yet 90% of my asset is in TSLA;)
Yeah, that descriptor was a bit off - I should have used "can you say 'all in'??" ;)

It's also misleading because if someone has over 25,000 shares, they could have over 75% of their investments in TSLA while still owning a nice house / island!! But I've found it messes up results if you change the labels for any choices, so I left it as is.

Congrats BTW on a wise use of your finances, @elasalle !
 
Why have lots of Model 3 deliveries been pulled forward into December from January if they want to flatten the end of qtr. wave?
Is this just to make this year's 12 month numbers look good and after this we'll see a more relaxed approach?
I think the US customer is highly motivated to push delivery until January. And Tesla is motivated to help them. Pulling the rest of world into December Helps.
 
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Great (if a bit longish) new YouTube post: Former TESLA EMPLOYEE Of 4 Years - This Is My Story Working For Tesla
youtube.com/watch?v=MlzWtQmYQvU

Edit:
do subscribe to his channel, now at 88, add some comment, helps with the YT algos (and join YouTube is only for this purpose, costs nothing) to encourage/ support him on his journey


Farzad Mesbahi
88 subscribers

" I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations. Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019. My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
... "

Random snippets: " four years feel like 12 it's moving so fast .. surrounded by really smart people ... (Tesla) is an entrepreneur sandbox .. "

And if you wonder why he left after 4 years " .. I left because we gained financial security due to working at Tesla and other investments, and my wife and I are going to take time to travel and pursue passions. We are very lucky! "

Also in the YT comments, answering a question about how would Tesla fare were Elon not directing the ship anymore for whatever reasons:

" ..I think Tesla is at a point now where if Elon were to step away the ship would keep sailing. The road map is very clear and Elon seems to have a really strong exec group to push it forward for the fore-sable future. I don’t see Elon being uninvolved with the company until he’s dead, and until that time the vision and execution should still be first class from what I’ve seen."

Timestamps below
00:00 Introduction
02:27 Problem solving
06:00 Workforce
08:27 Stock and healthcare
11:10 Respect
13:17 Accomplishments
15:37 Guardrails
18:47 Politics
20:28 Sophistication
23:40 Breaking stuff
25:37 Talent
28:34 Speed
30:38 Celebrating wins
32:26 Day to day
33:50 Culture
35:49 Wearing hats
39:55 Ego
41:58 Honesty
43:20 Rest
47:30 Summary and closing

Watch: Former TESLA EMPLOYEE Of 4 Years - This Is My Story Working For Tesla

Snapshot added for archival purposes

View attachment 738283
Watch on YouTube
I was wondering where all the external clicks were coming from this morning!

Thank you so much for posting this and creating exposure to my channel and videos. My plan is to make a bunch here in the coming weeks, and your support is greatly appreciated! What an amazing community!