Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
On the other hand nails came about as an answer to time consuming joinery.
So to save time for the joiner, the forests were cut down to make charcoal, the iron ore was mined and the iron monger fired it all to pigs of iron for the smithy. For the Smithy’s skillful hammering we produced nails that rust and split the wood the joiner would so loving have cut into beautiful dovetails<smile>.

Such is the progress we see daily. It is our world and nails now come in infinite forms and skillful joiners are rare. Tomorrow we may be less wrong.🙂

OTOH. At one time the most wealthy individual in the colonies was an iron monger. His wealth may have helped change history. Not so much for dovetails.

Thanks for your comment.
 
I was wondering where all the external clicks were coming from this morning!

Thank you so much for posting this and creating exposure to my channel and videos. My plan is to make a bunch here in the coming weeks, and your support is greatly appreciated! What an amazing community!
TL;DR - Great video! Just finished it. As a former employee, I'd suggest to anyone to watch your video to know what it is like to work at Tesla. Other video's I've seen aren't as good. I think you nailed it.

Longer version...
As a former employee and I'd second what you said. Your perspective is very similar to mine and I joined a month prior to Elon announcing the patent open sourcing. I worked on the AP team, met with Elon nearly twice a week, wore many hats, slept in the factory regularly while we were developing dual-motor and AP simultaneously. My camera and radar harness nearly stopped the line, so I feel your pain. I'd also reinforce the time dilation feeling at Tesla; it moves so fast that a week at Tesla feels like a month or even a quarter at other high tech fast moving companies. I'd write out a spec, have it reviewed and code written in the span of two days, then drive it on the weekend. We did, at times, take 3 steps forward and 5 steps back; hitting a local maxima that we just needed to uncover so we could back up, regroup and move another way at break-neck speed. Back in 2015, there were folks there that did NOT believe in "the mission" of the company and couldn't believe that I put my kids in my Model S. This sucked, but they left quickly as the speed of company is just too fast if you aren't ALL IN with the mission. It sounds like the majority of those folks have been weeded out.
 
There are only two possible answers:

1) Cancelled or delayed orders are moving reservations forward
2) Tesla is producing and delivering cars at a faster rate than they projected.

I suspect it has more to do with #2 and less with #1 for the following reason:

The reservations being moved forward have lower prices by a significant amount than Tesla is currently offering for new reservations. I don't suspect too many people who had locked in a lower price and were getting close to delivery would cancel. And then you have the time value of the reservation. A car available now (or soon) is worth more than one available at an indeterminate time in the future.

I think it's pretty clear production numbers are higher than Tesla was projecting when they estimated delivery timelines.

Based on comments in the Model Y forum, Tesla appears to be allowing reservation holders to delay (not cancel) pick up and maintain original pricing.
 
My wife ordered a Model Y LR back in August with expected delivery in December (East Coast). She logged on today for the first time in a couple of months and expected delivery is now June. Has anyone had a similar experience? IIRC @The Accountant ordered a few days later and had expected delivery in January? Has that changed?
 
This appeared in Automotive News new edition. It is rather informative, isn't it? No comments, just data:
FUD effectiveness

1638137322777.png
 
My wife ordered a Model Y LR back in August with expected delivery in December (East Coast). She logged on today for the first time in a couple of months and expected delivery is now June. Has anyone had a similar experience? IIRC @The Accountant ordered a few days later and had expected delivery in January? Has that changed?
When did she compete her profile?
 
My wife ordered a Model Y LR back in August with expected delivery in December (East Coast). She logged on today for the first time in a couple of months and expected delivery is now June. Has anyone had a similar experience? IIRC @The Accountant ordered a few days later and had expected delivery in January? Has that changed?
Your delay to June seems odd. My wife's Model Y LR was ordered on Aug 14. She originally had a January estimated delivery date but then if changed Nov 28 to Dec 28 and it stayed this way for many months. A couple of weeks ago it changed to Dec 5 - 10 and we now have confirmed our delivery for Dec 5. It's Blue with White interior with FSD. We're taking delivery out of Mt Kisco, NY.

Edit: Her Y has standard 19’’ Gemini Wheels
 
Last edited:
Me asking for one. I get around on social media. In all seriousness, people want one, with loads of Amazon and other deliveries, a lot of urban pollution is down to dirty diesel delivery vans & rev/cloud of diesel particulates/brake activity. Better if EV/Tesla - regen
 
My wife ordered a Model Y LR back in August with expected delivery in December (East Coast). She logged on today for the first time in a couple of months and expected delivery is now June. Has anyone had a similar experience? IIRC @The Accountant ordered a few days later and had expected delivery in January? Has that changed?
That seems very odd.. can you post what she ordered specifically, including interior and wheels?
 
Yes... was just summing up recent innovations :)

Also Austin is expected to produce only the Performance Y to start. I'm in two minds as to what to expect re: paint colours. Will they offer Metallic Silver and/or some others? Since it's just the Performance Y? Or will they keep to the same 5 current colours until S+X are able to have different colours?

Theory: since changing colours at Fremont slows down the production line for all vehicles, and that's what has led to the restriction to 5 colours... perhaps if overall production can be increased simply by the existence of the Texas factory, perhaps they can add more colours at Fremont too. (to all four vehicles)
I’m a little uncertain as to what model Y Austin will produce first. Given its scale, and the added benefits of the castings and new battery format - the cost to produce a Y out of Austin will be much cheaper than out of Fremont. So wouldn’t it make sense for Austin to produce the cheaper versions of the Y, while Fremont focuses on the more expensive & lower volume variants? Especially if the new cells are supply constrained, it would seemingly make sense to put less of the new cells in each Austin produced unit to enable more cars to be produced for a given supply limit of cells.
 
30k for the first half of 2022 in Berlin is too low imho.
If they target 1,000 per week in January, then no growth would be 26k for the first half (very close to the 30k quoted). That would be a poor ramp.
I am projecting 15k in Q1 and 30k in Q2 for a total of 45k for the first half (the same for Austin)

@SOULPEDL beat me to it.
a limit of 1000 per week may indicate they are using cell supply from Kato rd until Berlin cell production starts?
 
Your delay to June seems odd. My wife's Model Y LR was ordered on Aug 14. She originally had a January estimated delivery date but then if changed Nov 28 to Dec 28 and it stayed this way for many months. A couple of weeks ago it changed to Dec 5 - 10 and we now have confirmed our delivery for Dec 5. It's Blue with White interior with FSD. We're taking delivery out of Mt Kisco, NY.

Agreed, something is odd. We placed a Model Y LR order in May and put it on hold. We released the hold in August and we were given a late November to mid-December delivery window. This was updated a couple more times before they called to schedule an 11/21 delivery appt (also at Mt. Kisco).

White/Black Interior/Hitch - no FSD.

Briefly considered putting the order on hold again to wait for the tax credit, but the 6+ month delay for current orders convinced me otherwise.
 
TL;DR - Great video! Just finished it. As a former employee, I'd suggest to anyone to watch your video to know what it is like to work at Tesla. Other video's I've seen aren't as good. I think you nailed it.

Longer version...
As a former employee and I'd second what you said. Your perspective is very similar to mine and I joined a month prior to Elon announcing the patent open sourcing. I worked on the AP team, met with Elon nearly twice a week, wore many hats, slept in the factory regularly while we were developing dual-motor and AP simultaneously. My camera and radar harness nearly stopped the line, so I feel your pain. I'd also reinforce the time dilation feeling at Tesla; it moves so fast that a week at Tesla feels like a month or even a quarter at other high tech fast moving companies. I'd write out a spec, have it reviewed and code written in the span of two days, then drive it on the weekend. We did, at times, take 3 steps forward and 5 steps back; hitting a local maxima that we just needed to uncover so we could back up, regroup and move another way at break-neck speed. Back in 2015, there were folks there that did NOT believe in "the mission" of the company and couldn't believe that I put my kids in my Model S. This sucked, but they left quickly as the speed of company is just too fast if you aren't ALL IN with the mission. It sounds like the majority of those folks have been weeded out.

Thanks so much! Makes me super happy a previous Tesla employee such as yourself endorsed the video. What really stands out to me from your comment is that your experience can be similar to mine even though I met Elon in person exactly 0 times, and you met with him twice a week. Reinforces the thought behind Tesla’s culture permeating across all nook and crannies.

Folks not believing in the mission is something that I experienced quite a bit in 2017 when I first joined, but they 100% weeded all those folks out. I think HR’s job around their performance acceleration protocol, as well as holding leaders accountable when not executing against the mission, really helped build a culture where across all levels everyone is bought in, regardless of much painfully or sucky it is to execute. Also in some way, all the short seller pressure and crazy amounts of negative headlines create a huge amount of comorodery within the company. It felt like we were at war between 2017 and 2019 while M3 was ramping, the whole funding secured 420 ordeal, etc. This brought a ton of us together, at least within the org that I was working.

I feel pretty confident that Tesla can continue to execute at a very high level even with Elon’s involvement diminishing overtime (which I fully support - the dude needs a break).
 
a limit of 1000 per week may indicate they are using cell supply from Kato rd until Berlin cell production starts?
The approach that they have taken with the model 3 and Y ramps in China is to start with a single shift and work the major kinks out of the line. I guess this is so that they have time to make modification/small updates when the shift is completed or at weekends. The target rate for a single shift was 280 vehicles a day so clearly initially it will be below this. I am guessing that the 1000/week is roughly 200/day for a single shift.

When the line is running fairly smoothly they then introduce additional shifts which is when the large increase in production occurs.

The figures that are being quoted seem in line with following a similar approach in Berlin. The figure which does seem a little strange is the 30,000 for H1 22. From the jump in production (reported at 3500/week) it seems like the Y line in China introduced additional shifts in April.
 
Considering the platforms I'm not surprised at all. Old-fashioned websites like TMC do appeal to older people.
There is quite copious use, dwell time and activity metrics (posting, response, purchasing etc) for all significant web type categories and specific platforms. All 'the good stuff' is behind paywall. Thus I will post general data for four of them. The various platform use and dominance varies dramatically by country so I list only US dat and order.

Traditional special interest (fan) website (e.g. TMC): Comparing three of those for which I had data on both the fan site and subject data. Both tend to have quite similar demographics but are overrepresented by the oldest user cohorts. [considering the dreaded 'mother-in-law' research as irrelevant. I do note there are many people active on the TMC site who are my age and older. Factually we skew OLD! Separately, the multiTesla owners and sequential ones almost by definition skew older. Obviously, quite a few of these people bought TSLA in the early years and never sold. Thus we tend to have much more financial assets than do most people our age. In any event this traditional website format skews older also.

Facebook: Slightly anomalous because so much Facebook content is advertising and promotion, with restaurant menus such in with like-minded advocates for some specific thing. Because it is strongly visual it tends towards a younger audience than do most other groups. Facebook demographics vary so dramatically that they are truly site specific.

Considering the platforms I'm not surprised at all. Old-fashioned websites like TMC do appeal to older people.
There is quite copious use, dwell time and activity metrics (posting, response, purchasing etc) for all significant web type categories and specific platforms. All 'the good stuff' is behind paywall. Thus I will post general data for four of them. The various platform use and dominance varies dramatically by country so I list only US dat and order.

Traditional special interest (fan) website (e.g. TMC): Comparing three of those for which I had data on both the fan site and subject data. Both tend to have quite similar demographics but are overrepresented by the oldest user cohorts. [considering the dreaded 'mother-in-law' research as irrelevant. I do note there are many people active on the TMC site who are my age and older. Factually we skew OLD! Separately, the multiTesla owners and sequential ones almost by definition skew older. Obviously, quite a few of these people bought TSLA in the early years and never sold. Thus we tend to have much more financial assets than do most people our age. In any event this traditional website format skews older also.

Facebook: Slightly anomalous because so much Facebook content is advertising and promotion, with restaurant menus such in with like-minded advocates for some specific thing. Because it is strongly visual it tends towards a younger audience than do most other groups. Facebook demographics vary so dramatically that they are truly site specific.

Reddit: From Statista
Everything in the link seems more or less correct with two huge exception. AMA on Reddit reflects pretty much the demographics of the sponsors fans.
For Reddit fan sites that are on topics also covered with traditional websites Reddit skews very young, overwhelmingly male. These cases also tend to make the traditional sites on the same subject older and more diverse. The Statista information does give clues.

I show nothing at all for giants like Google and Baidu, each of which has almost ubuitous use among internet users in their respective markets of dominance.
I exclude specialists such as WhatsApp because they tend to be single market dominant. For example WhatApp is used universally in Brazil and Mexico, to the exclusion of traditional voicemail and other messaging applications.

Conclusions:
Running the same investor survey on Tesla Reddit, TMC and Discord Tesla groups will end out with oldest and most stable on TMC, Reddit will be youngest and probably most prone to options, margin etc. Discord will be in between, but tend slightly less aggressive than will Reddit.

I have data on a number of other platforms all does within the last year, all for product classes roughly analogous to Tesla.

It would be great to have exact data specific to Tesla. That is very, very hard to accomplish.
Anyone else starting to feel like Jbcarioca Has a team of researchers and writers creating his posts?