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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If you will notice, the timing on all these leaks come right around the day before market opens. Looks like Tesla doesn't do anything on the weekends... KIDDING!

Seeing as @Artful Dodger pointed out a strong overseas market now with factory openings announced soon, we're in for a whopper tomorrow I think. Just a hunch. And then Elon comes in a sells that magical number of chairs. But when he's done and Santa starts showing up, hold on to those shorts.
Glad I bought the "Omicron" dip Friday, although I holding out for a bigger dip, in case Musk dumps a bunch of shares in the "next week or so." Yea, I think 12/9 has some meaning
 
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Anyone else starting to feel like Jbcarioca Has a team of researchers and writers creating his posts?
My small team is happy you guessed. We’ve been doing this kind of research for decades. We still make mistakes, almost all with confirmation bias. I detest confirmation bias but we still find ourselves doing it too much. I post only for myself to avoid promoting our own business.
 
That was how it felt with factchecking - an absolute unit of a TMC writer - the GOAT imo. He occasionally writes amazing stuff as Tesla_truth but it is not the same. Arguably fighting FUD (highly effectively) is a little more important than educating us though....

I mentioned in another thread how Elon's "giving back to society morals" has rubbed off on everyday astronaut "Tim Dodd". There are many more including factchecking, karen, @DaveT , @Papafox etc.
For me several including @Papafox, @Mr Miserable @The Accountant @AudubonB plus a couple departed ones. Each of these has changed my outlook, helped alter investment decisions and been informative in unexpected ways. A couple became long distance friends, a completely unexpected benefit.

In my professional experience the last time I felt such collaboration was at SRI decades ago. Now we learn from two former Tesla employeeshttps @farzyness and @Discoducky that Tesla is like that, but with much better incentive compensation than was the case at SRI. Their insights are both inspirational and educational.

on confirmation bias, SRI told HP there was no future for hand held calculators because slide rules were easier and faster. OTOH we did help develop SWIFT, and seriously arcane, but ubiquitous things. Developing Siri, for example, even made money. The ad hoc, teams drawn from everywhere (we called them multidisciplinary) helped make astounding progress in many ways. Elon has all that imprinted on his DNA, has made it a cultural value, and insists on truth and ‘egoless‘ behavior. Back with SRI we never could quite manage the whole package.

Here at TMC we seem to be doing some of that ourselves, don’t we?
 
This post provides much of the basis for assuming lower transportation cost and the implicit beginnings of a smoothing of Tesla new production processes. It’s the beginning, but financial forecasts might now think of slightly lower distribution costs. In addition this is already reducing shipping damage and will tend towards lower warranty costs. It is still just the beginning of a long virtuous cycle:

Post in thread '2021 Shipping Movements'
2021 Shipping Movements
 
Mine is all over the place. I ordered a 7 seater Y with tow hitch back in August with an expected delivery date of December. Since then the delivery date slid to January, then March then May, then last week back up to January, and now to June. I have no idea what’s going on with the timing. I’m not worried about it because I snagged an inventory Model Y the last day of Q3. I just haven’t cancelled my reservation yet.
These changing delivery dates seem so random to me. I'm sure there's a method to the madness but I can't spot it so far.
 
Recent twitter stuff had snippets of NYT interview with Mary Barra. We just watched the full interview, which led to interview with head of Exxon Mobil. Mary did not answer a single question, came across more as a coached press secretary. Every point she raised about GM electric cars being good or best was just so blatantly false and was really about some area that TSLA has been leading in. She used the word plan a lot. Exxon guy was a bit of the same, talked about how his company has responded to climate change stuff as it became more important to society.

1. These folks are not leaders, they are followers and business managers.
2. VW Diess much more realistic.
3. Elon might be overly optimistic but never comes across as coached or as a press secretary. Many times when asked a question he seems to actually think about an answer instead of blurting buzz word statements.
4. Elon owns up to mistakes publicly and does not hide them.

I know what horse I'm willing to be my money on.
 
Mary had to dodge the questions. While they were pretty basic questions any reasonable answer she gave would make GM and/or the POTUS look bad. She did an A-1 job at dodging them, not an easy task for most people. When you are in charge of a failing flailing company you had better have good PR skills. And that, she has.

You might think she did a good job, but obvious blatant lying does not inspire confidence in a person to me. Quite the opposite actually, and I would never invest in a company with an individual like that at the helm.
 
U.S. with no corn growing subsidies - Read Meat (corn fed) would be a boom to Texas Grass fed beef - box of Corn Chex would double - 15% ethanol gasoline would jump an immediate 15%
No oil and gas production and extraction credits - Gas jumps 50 cents a gallon.
No TSA and FAA airport and air control subsidies - flights go up an instant $130 per leg
If no ethanol forcing, fuel would fall immediately. The ethanol is more expensive than petro so the refineries would jump at the chance to stop buying ethanol and prices would fall. This would dump a huge amount of corn back into the market. Many growers would fail or switch to other commodities. Grain prices worldwide would likely take a bit of a hit as this giant bit of commodity corn hits the world market. Grain fed beef would become cheaper. The ag version of Fannie Mae would likely need propping up because they backed many of the ethanol production loans, dozens of plants would close.
Box of corn chex would fall.

I would recommend a class in economics. Then a study of farming in the USA.
 
With regard to Mary Barra:

Elon does not go on CNBC or Bloomberg because he does not need to.
Mary goes on CNBC and Bloomberg because she needs to.
When the business strategy and results speak for themselves, there is no need to go on the business news channels to plug your company.

I worked at 3 Fortune 100 companies in my career. Very often after a bad quarter where management missed internal targets. the CEO would scold senior management for the poor results and then would appear on CNBC the following week praising the quarterly results. It's a game.
 
You might think she did a good job, but obvious blatant lying does not inspire confidence in a person to me. Quite the opposite actually, and I would never invest in a company with an individual like that at the helm.
I came away from that interview with an even stronger conviction that GM are toast. If their leadership isn't willing to properly acknowledge the threat that Tesla poses and the reality of their situation then they deserve what's coming to them. Unfortunately Mary will float off with her golden parachute, leaving all those workers and suppliers that depend on GM to suffer the full consequence.
 
You might think she did a good job, but obvious blatant lying does not inspire confidence in a person to me. Quite the opposite actually, and I would never invest in a company with an individual like that at the helm.
The majority of the public (non-Tesla fans) wouldn't know she was lying though. Obviously none of us would invest in GM (they're doomed), but the general public will lap up this stuff. Until one day they don't. I think that time is coming and OEMs are getting desperate and taking more risks (like blatant lying by them and now POTUS!).
 
The majority of the public (non-Tesla fans) wouldn't know she was lying though. Obviously none of us would invest in GM (they're doomed), but the general public will lap up this stuff. Until one day they don't. I think that time is coming and OEMs are getting desperate and taking more risks (like blatant lying by them and now POTUS!).

Agree.
When I was younger and just starting to invest (in my 20's), I often made investment decisions based on a television interview with a CEO or analyst . . .or based on a short article in Forbes or Fortune. I quickly learned that was a losing investment strategy; but many people don't learn this lesson. I so often hear from friends and colleagues that they will invest in company xyz based on a soundbite they heard. Many retail investors don't spend the time to really understand the company they are investing in. Many will listen to Mary and invest in GM because they are the leaders in EV.
 
Agree.
When I was younger and just starting to invest (in my 20's), I often made investment decisions based on a television interview with a CEO or analyst . . .or based on a short article in Forbes or Fortune. I quickly learned that was a losing investment strategy; but many people don't learn this lesson.

I will admit, I made bad investments based on meager information in my younger days too. It's one reason why I gravitated towards less diversification and investing in only a few companies which I knew inside and out. This is also when I started to notice disconnects between media finance information and reality. Tesla has been a great show of this too, the disconnect between the reality of the company and what the "news" would portray was enormous, and I only realized it years ago due to my own due diligence in researching.

It's why I can recognize the blatant lying about Tesla and the EV space today when I see it. :cool:
 
Agree.
When I was younger and just starting to invest (in my 20's), I often made investment decisions based on a television interview with a CEO or analyst . . .or based on a short article in Forbes or Fortune. I quickly learned that was a losing investment strategy; but many people don't learn this lesson. I so often hear from friends and colleagues that they will invest in company xyz based on a soundbite they heard. Many retail investors don't spend the time to really understand the company they are investing in. Many will listen to Mary and invest in GM because they are the leaders in EV.
Can confirm.

In my early 20's I started investing in the stock market and based my picks on:
- financial newspaper articles
- what a friend invested in
- the news

Suffice to say, that didn't work out for me that well. On my winners I took fast profits when they increased in value by 10 or at most 20 %. My losers I kept holding because "it'll go back up again soon, surely".

I lacked a true internalised reason for investing in/believing in the companies I invested in. Therefore I never had faith a large SP rise was permanent. Or I could not evaluate drops correctly given the fact that I lacked understanding of the inner workings.

Fortunately those days are behind me and I didn't have too much to invest back then. I guess it's a learning curve that many face.
 
The majority of the public (non-Tesla fans) wouldn't know she was lying though. Obviously none of us would invest in GM (they're doomed), but the general public will lap up this stuff. Until one day they don't. I think that time is coming and OEMs are getting desperate and taking more risks (like blatant lying by them and now POTUS!).
Can the SEC investigate POTUS for spreading misleading information?

Asking for a friend...
 
You know . . . . @jbcarioca once owned an island and he does not recommend it. No joke! 😁

Ok, here it is:
I bought it in 1988 and installed water desalination, 100% solar power (that is a long story, an adventure because almost nobody thought it would work, Instill operates) and a few other things. It is the only privately owned island in the Brigantine cays. The only way in and out real private plane or a commercial flight to a nearby island and a long boat ride. I also installed a gigantic wine cooler. I learned a lot about every efficiency and solar power, it the end it worked perfectly, even in a Cat 5 hurricane. We also used one of the early Iridium satellite phones (the novelty of that meant I lost no clients but the service was VERY laggy. and seriously expensive, but it worked.

Anybody who wants a private island should follow the @lafrisbee example and choose someplace close to facilities and not too exotic. I loved our island, but it was so remote and inaccessible that sometimes a week would pass without a visible passing boat. In an emergency...do not have an emergency. The nearest qualified physician was hours away. FWIW, the Christies photos were taken by my spouse as we were circling the island in our CE525. We planned an airstrip but never built it.

Now we are all in for Tesla and TSLA. Don't ever buy an island unless you can cope with all the hassles and can stand to lose your entire 'investment'. You might end out making money but you'll probably wait a long, long time to sell. It took us 2 1/2 years plus a few months for exchange clearance. In the eventual end ours was profitable. The nearest occupied island to ours was owned by Hume Cronin and Jessica Tandy. Wonderful people but they both died before it sold.

Recommendation: Keep TSLA and rent an island from time to time. It's cheaper, easier and usually fun.