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Every time I see non Tesla EV showing off impressive charging speed I think ... yep thats cool but how many times can this battery handle it.

The real lead Tesla has on today's competition will show in 3-4 years, when differences in long term durability and reliability will become apparent.

I find it interesting all the startup EV makers (Tesla, Rivian, Rimac, Lucid) use cells and all the legacy OEMs are using pouches…

It’s almost like one group is run by people who are enthusiasts of the technology and one is run by bean counters…
 
Hopefully one day all these genius legacies will learn to read up on Tesla's history and start following the plan laid out.
For the past 2-3 years anytime someone I know has expressed interest in an EV and EV products that get announced by legacy auto, I tell them

"Put away any and all emotion. You may like Elon, you may hate him. You may hate that Tesla's are so popular and the fanboy'ism that goes with them........But you absolutely cannot trust any of the legacy auto makers when it comes to EV's. They don't have the expertise and knowledge of battery cells, chemistry, and packs and in an desperate attempt to match Tesla's specs, they are going to push battery suppliers to compromise on cell/pack integrity and safety well past the limitations."

When the Bolt fires started showing up and then the all out recall happened, I had people reaching out to me like they were surprised GM would do this and my response was "Why are you surprised here?"
 
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Separate from but really a continuation of my prior post, my letters to our client base have included, for the last 6 or 7 quarters, reference to how TSLA no longer is strictly an Aggressive Growth stock but a Safe Harbor one as well, joining other long-term Safe Harbor holds like AAPL, SBUX, AMT, COST and V, although none of those also are Aggressive Growth.


Mod Note, though: mention of those other names in passing does not provide a means to veer this thread off of a discussion of TSLA.

This may soon lead to Tesla debt being rated investment grade.
 
Does anybody have any thoughts about Elon's recent tweet? Notice an obsession with pools lately?

Thats is a photo of Stalin, Trotsky and few other key soviet communists, Trotsky was subsequently airbrushed out when he got purged (1920) and eventually killed (1940).

stalin-jezow.jpg



It think there's is a hint here to Twitter's role in censorship and control of society and Dorsey's alleged unwillingness to go along with it.

More info: How Photos Became a Weapon in Stalin’s Great Purge
 
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In the Tesla Daily interview with Alex Potter, Alex emphasized that a battery raw material supply crunch is coming. If there's not enough Lithium or Nickel or whatever available, even if an OEM builds a battery factory, what's going to feed into it? Alex noted that since Tesla never questioned their own future scale, they would have locked in supply contracts 5 years ago, while OEMs are just thinking about that now as they press-release their battery factory plans and maybe it occurs to them that the battery manufacturer/JV partner isn't just going to be able to materialize ore out of thin air.

Alex and Rob had apparently just come out of a "Battery Summit" event where the battery industry players repeated that a new mine takes 7-10 years to get running, so for all those without contracts in place, well, the phrase they actually used was "SOL".

Meanwhile, iron is cheap and plentiful, but nobody except Tesla has demonstrated the ability to get decent range out of an LFP pack. With $50B could GM engineer their way to a more efficient vehicle? Well, if they could, why wouldn't we have seen even basic steps in that direction by now? Every EV would benefit from the same range out of a smaller pack, but I don't see GM innovating on efficiency much, and Lucid has gotten a bit too pricey to acquire...
1. It's been a while since I heard anything about Tesla's Austin lithium refinery, or the new NC lithium mine to be developed by an Australian company that has a contract with Tesla; or mining lithium salt in NV. Has there been any info I may have missed?

2. People assume that because OEM's and battery manufacturers talk less than Tesla about their plans that they're nowhere. GM and LG might be way behind Tesla in development of battery technology, but I don't think we know that.
 
Thats is a photo of Stalin, Trotsky and few other key soviet communists, Trotsky was subsequently airbrushed out when he got purged (1920) and eventually killed (1940).

stalin-jezow.jpg



It think there's is a hint here to Twitter role in censorship and control of society and Dorsey's alleged unwillingness to go with it.

More info: How Photos Became a Weapon in Stalin’s Great Purge

IIRC Elon and Jack are friends so he may know private details that the rest of us don’t.
 
1. It's been a while since I heard anything about Tesla's Austin lithium refinery, or the new NC lithium mine to be developed by an Australian company that has a contract with Tesla; or mining lithium salt in NV. Has there been any info I may have missed?

2. People assume that because OEM's and battery manufacturers talk less than Tesla about their plans that they're nowhere. GM and LG might be way behind Tesla in development of battery technology, but I don't think we know that.
LG? LG is clueless. They did not come up with a solution to thermal runaway. In fact they were so scared shitless that they threw lawyers at Tesla to give back their cells in the mid 2000's. And today judging from how many of LG Chem's battery recalls that are active, they still haven't learned a thing.

Tesla has already secured multiple suppliers for their 4680 cells.
 
LG? LG is clueless. They did not come up with a solution to thermal runaway. In fact they were so scared shitless that they threw lawyers at Tesla to give back their cells in the mid 2000's. And today judging from how many of LG Chem's battery recalls that are active, they still haven't learned a thing.

Tesla has already secured multiple suppliers for their 4680 cells.
The recalls are for the Bolt that was introduced in 2017. LG and GM might have made good progress since then. It's also possible they haven't and they're nowhere. I don't think we know.
 
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The recalls are for the Bolt that was introduced in 2017. LG and GM might have made good progress since then. It's also possible they haven't and they're nowhere. I don't think we know.

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

DETROIT – General Motors is voluntarily expanding the current Chevrolet Bolt EV recall to cover the remaining 2019 and all 2020-2022 model year vehicles, including the Bolt EUV.

 
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1. It's been a while since I heard anything about Tesla's Austin lithium refinery, or the new NC lithium mine to be developed by an Australian company that has a contract with Tesla; or mining lithium salt in NV. Has there been any info I may have missed?

2. People assume that because OEM's and battery manufacturers talk less than Tesla about their plans that they're nowhere. GM and LG might be way behind Tesla in development of battery technology, but I don't think we know that.
Well, there IS new information and it's of enough import that I'm placing it here rather than in the "Resource Angle" thread.

Working its way through Chile's legislature is a massive increase in the royalty miners would have to pay both on copper and lithium. There are lots of details; important ones include
  • that such would ensue only upon expiry of existing contracts, for which many of them the year is 2023;
  • that of all the articles I have scanned they lump Li production with Cu but refer specifically only to the Cu percentages;
  • but most important of all is that the royalty would rise to as much as 75%. Of "sales", according to some articles, of "profits" according to others - unfortunately, that in itself demonstrates the hazardous nature of finding accurate information.

Meaning what? To me, this is yet one more demonstration of the perils either of being a host like Chile of a fungible product (copper from Chile is indistinguishable from copper from Liechtenstein; Li from Chile is the same as Li from Rhode Island. So to speak.), or a global mining company, or a consumer of same. To the extent that the Chilean legislature eyes its copper as being a golden egg capable of solving some of that country's economic inequalities without being supremely sensitive to the effect a higher commodities price and/or a diminished profit margin accruing to its miners....means that Chile can end up losing absolute revenue. To the extent that the stability of supplies of such materials is lessened means that consumers, Tesla amongst them, have headaches on the way.

More, perhaps, later. Gotta go raise a Christmas tree.
 
I find it interesting all the startup EV makers (Tesla, Rivian, Rimac, Lucid) use cells and all the legacy OEMs are using pouches…

It’s almost like one group is run by people who are enthusiasts of the technology and one is run by bean counters…
I still don't know what happens if somebody drops a pouch battery and then installs it as in Young Frankenstein.
 
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For anyone with spreads and taxable gains, I wanted to share something that I sometimes do to reduce taxes and buy calls by closing short legs of spreads. This may seem obvious to many, but I find it easy to overlook because I tend to view spreads as a pair. This seems particularly opportune as TSLA nears an all time high near the end of the year, with both macro challenges and promising news (challenges + good news = volatility),

Instead of buying new options in anticipation of a move up (e.g. "buy the dip"), I consider closing a portion of the short legs of spreads at a loss. It's a win at multiple levels:

1. Reduces taxes on realized gains. For many here, this will save 35% to 50%
2. For each short leg that closes, you end up owning naked calls
3. Optionally, add back the short legs (leg in) if the SP reaches your target price to free up capital.

This effectively shifts taxes to the gains on the long leg which won't be realized until it closes. Exercising can defer taxable gains indefinitely.

Here's an example of a trade where I did this:

Purchased Jan 2022 500/600 bull call LEAP spreads in Oct 2020. The 600c short leg paid $84 / option
During the pullback mid-2021, closed the short leg on nearly half the contracts for $113

Result today is:
- Reduced taxable gains this year by $2900 / closed short leg contract (100 x ($113 - $84))
- I now have 100 naked 500c calls per closed short leg
- I may exercise some / all of the naked calls when they expire next month to accumulate more shares
 
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I find it interesting all the startup EV makers (Tesla, Rivian, Rimac, Lucid) use cells and all the legacy OEMs are using pouches…

It’s almost like one group is run by people who are enthusiasts of the technology and one is run by bean counters…

There is certainly a disconnect in design mentality between EV startups and OEM's with regards to batteries. I have a hunch pouch batteries will become very unappealing to the auto market over time, and anyone using them today will eventually regret it. Just my gut feeling.
 
For anyone with spreads and taxable gains, I wanted to share something that I sometimes do to reduce taxes and buy calls by closing short legs of spreads. This may seem obvious to many, but I find it easy to overlook because I always view spreads as a pair. This seems particularly opportune as TSLA nears an all time high near the end of the year, with both macro challenges and promising news (challenges + good news = volatility),

Instead of buying new options in anticipation of a move up (e.g. "buy the dip"), I consider closing a portion of the short legs of spreads at a loss. It's a win at multiple levels:

1. Reduces taxes on realized gains. For many here, this will save 35% to 50%
2. For each short leg that closes, you end up owning naked calls
3. Optionally, add back the short legs (leg in) if the SP reaches your target price to free up capital.

This effectively shifts taxes to the gains on the long leg which won't be realized until it closes. Exercising can defer taxable gains indefinitely.

Here's an example of a trade where I did this:

Purchased Jan 2022 500/600 bull call LEAP spreads in Oct 2020. The 600c short leg paid $84 / option
During the pullback mid-2021, closed the short leg on nearly half the contracts for $113

Result today is:
- Reduced taxable gains this year by $2900 / closed short leg contract (100 x ($113 - $84))
- I now have 100 naked 500c calls per closed short leg
- I may exercise some / all of the naked calls when they expire next month to accumulate more shares
I am confused - if you have a short leg meaning you sold to open calls, and then you buy them back at a loss, how are you then holding calls? Or do you mean you bought twice as much as you had shorted?
 
I am confused - if you have a short leg meaning you sold to open calls, and then you buy them back at a loss, how are you then holding calls? Or do you mean you bought twice as much as you had shorted?

They're bull call spreads, so I buy to open and sell to open at the same time at different prices. My sample bull call spread of 500/600c = buy 500c + sell 600c. About 8 months later I closed some of the 600c contracts.
 
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