Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

So according to a ford webinar the f150 order bank opens Jan, production starts June, deliveries September.

That could easily slip into Q4/2022

Game on

That could easily slip into Q1 2023........If they do deliver any in Q4 2022, it's going to be a few hundred, maybe a couple thoasand

 

[RobDickinson]

To be fair Ford have experience in shipping half finished garbage so might not slip as much as you expect

 

[generalenthu]

Elon sold a tranche today. Form 4 is in.

Edit: Looks like the standard option exercise and sale.

Link here

 

[StealthP3D]

The price movement this year is a total disappointment.

I've been a TSLA stock holder since November of 2019 and here we are two years later having to settle for a measly 50% gain since November of last year.

This feels like a significant slowing of things after 2020. Some might even go so far as to say it is a busted growth story unfolding.

Tesla really needs to step up to the plate over the next twelve months and swing for the bleachers instead of dilly-dallying around with more puny gains like this.

Or else!

I mean it.

/s

The 12-month gain for TSLA, from 12/4/20 to 12/4/21 is up 82.78%. I bought my shares in 2019 and over the last 12 months the gains in TSLA are over 12X my cost basis. And I went in pretty big in 2019 so I'm super happy with the gains in the last year. When you get in earlier, at lower price, an 83% gain on the appreciated value of your shares looks a lot more impressive. The S&P has performed excellent as well, up 24.83% over the previous one-year period. When you compound your investments at around 25% annually, the results become staggering in just a couple of decades.

For example, starting with only $10,000, if you average 25% per year for two decades, and you fail to add any as you go along, you end up with $867,362! That means over the same period $100,000 would grow to $8.674 million! And that's with only 25% annually. I expect TSLA to appreciate much faster than that. Indeed, 83% in one year is awesome! Dare I say some of us may have become spoiled? Here's why:

If you could get 87% returns every year, that same $10,000 would turn into $2.734 billion dollars in only 20 years.

In investing, like many endeavors in life, the tortoise often beats the hare. Time is the magic ingredient. Yes, I know you were being sarcastic, I just wanted to put some numbers to it!

 

[GOVA]

Just lately Elon mentioned (15:30) that SpaceX has the stainless steel prcess well in place to deal with the incredible challenges it needs to face. They do have a specific alloy to do so.

Now, it is quite obvious that SpaceX/Tesla has the top material team(s) in the world so I feel that the process of getting the steel for the cyber is also finished.

My bold prediction is that all of the above combined with encouraging rumors of the new battery production will bring the CT much sooner than expected.

 

[RobDickinson]

Elon sold a tranche today. Form 4 is in

Interesting, bad day to choose to sell a bunch of shares haha

 

[MrMoo]

Interesting, bad day to choose to sell a bunch of shares haha

He isn't choosing the date anymore. This was done in September and is on a predetermined schedule.

 

[RobDickinson]

He isn't choosing the date anymore. This was done in September and is on a predetermined schedule.

Yes, a schedule he chose... no big deal tho tbh

 

[Ogre]

So according to a ford webinar the f150 order bank opens Jan, production starts June, deliveries September.

That could easily slip into Q4/2022

Game on

It’s possible that Cybertruck will beat Ford out the gate after all. 80% chance they will outship Ford in 2022 at this point.

 

[Beltsbear]

That could easily slip into Q1 2023........If they do deliver any in Q4 2022, it's going to be a few hundred, maybe a couple thoasand

Naaa. Ford has learned from the Mach-E and is doing what they need to put out the EF150. It will be produced in volume in 2022. It is hard to know who will ship first. One thing for sure, by the END of 2022, Tesla will be making more Cybertrucks, not because Ford is a laggard, but because Tesla is planning much higher volumes and is able to get the batteries.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466499365229379586

 

[2daMoon]

The 12-month gain for TSLA, from 12/4/20 to 12/4/21 is up 82.78%. I bought my shares in 2019 and over the last 12 months the gains in TSLA are over 12X my cost basis. And I went in pretty big in 2019 so I'm super happy with the gains in the last year. When you get in earlier, at lower price, an 83% gain on the appreciated value of your shares looks a lot more impressive. The S&P has performed excellent as well, up 24.83% over the previous one-year period. When you compound your investments at around 25% annually, the results become staggering in just a couple of decades.

For example, starting with only $10,000, if you average 25% per year for two decades, and you fail to add any as you go along, you end up with $867,362! That means over the same period $100,000 would grow to $8.674 million! And that's with only 25% annually. I expect TSLA to appreciate much faster than that. Indeed, 83% in one year is awesome! Dare I say some of us may have become spoiled? Here's why:

If you could get 87% returns every year, that same $10,000 would turn into $2.734 billion dollars in only 20 years.

In investing, like many endeavors in life, the tortoise often beats the hare. Time is the magic ingredient. Yes, I know you were being sarcastic, I just wanted to put some numbers to it!

You're right. Thanks for the correction!

I had my spreadsheet set to last year's close, so it was calculating from 12/31/20 to now.

Just the same, it is slacking compared to 2020 and my disappointment remains undiminished

 

[Big Time]

2 form 4s from today. Where we sitting % wise now of the planned 10%?

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466627520862867460

I should stop posting from twitter today.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

2 form 4s from today. Where we sitting % wise now of the planned 10%?

62%

 

[15Peter20]

he sort of looks like your avatar

Damn! Outed!

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466627520862867460

I should stop posting from twitter today.

Send 'em to Texas. “Winter is coming”.

 

[insaneoctane]

DBE is not required to make a 4680 sized battery cell. The electrode material is made first and is dry when it makes it into the cell - it doesn’t matter whether thats done the old way (wet electrode gets dried in huge ovens) or the new Tesla way (it doesn’t need to be dried). So an external supplier can provide Tesla with 4680 cells that used a traditionally wet electrode process no problem.

As for DBE, I agree it appears that 3rd parties can make 4680 sized, tabless cells without DBE, but Tesla's battery day slides indicate that approach will cost the 3rd party 18% more per kWh on production AND 34% more capital investment (those were the values associated with the cell factory innovations, which I'm roughly just giving all the credit to DBE) . That's a pretty significant price disadvantage. I wish I understood what Tesla is giving away for free vs licensing trying to get others to produce 4680's for Tesla (but also for competitors) ....

 

[MaChiMiB]

New Fremont flyover:

If the video is in real time (looks like it, or close to it), the cycle-time for the gigapress is currently at 1:46 minutes (opening at 7:26 to opening at 9:12).
That's 300k pieces/year with 100% uptime and 240k pieces/years with a more realistic 80% uptime.
But it generally looks like that the gigapress is not the limiting factor for production, since there are always plenty of finished castings around. If needed they might be able to increase the output.
So I think we can only assume that 240k/year is the lower limit per gigapress.

Things to consider, please correct me if the info is outdated:
Model 3 doesn't use the gigacastings yet (likely in a year or two).
Model Y from Fremont uses only a rear casting (so both gigapresses there produce only the rear castings).
Model Y from Austin will use front and rear castings (from gigapresses on site)

 

[WarpedOne]

Things to consider, please correct me if the info is outdated:
Model 3 doesn't use the gigacastings yet (likely in a year or two).
Model Y from Fremont uses only a rear casting (so both gigapresses there produce only the rear castings).
Model Y from Austin will use front and rear castings (from gigapresses on site)

Correct.
I look forward to updated M3 with F and R casting, 4860 pack etc ... a P variant of course