Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tivoboy]

The moment Tesla recorded the impairment loss, its original basis got replaced by a new, lower basis at which the loss occurred. For Tesla to record another impairment loss, BTC has to dip even further beyond this new basis. On the other hand, if Tesla sells its BTCs, it will realize a bigger gain since the cost basis is now lower. I’m not sure if Tesla ever recorded an impairment loss. Didn’t we have some drama over a ~100m BTC realized gain?

I thought they had reported an impairment charge for Q2 of ~23M and for Q3 of ~51M, which they reported in mid Q3 and Q4?, and possibly another impairment charge?

Some ppl seem to think they paid ~20K per BTC, I've seen several calculations done by the WSJ and Forbes which put the amount closer to ~34.7K. Since very early Jan 2021 (which I think is when they made their initial purchases,) or possibly in Dec 2020, we've never been down to 20K, and not really even down to 34.7K, so I don't see where there would even be a chance for a write-down impairment. Unless one tried to book losses during some hour long blip just to capture losses - which is what a lot of bitcoin owners are doing this year before tax law changes make it harder to get around wash sale rules - if not making alltogether impossible for this asset.

 

[H Mak]

During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

You can't go because I showed my wife the picture of your island

 

[Xepa777]

I wonder how many FSD v10.x there will be until 11.0 comes out, and the milestones needed to hit it.

 

[mongo]

The closing price on BTC on 9/30 isn't important. The impairment loss resulted from the lowest price of BTC recorded during a quarter. Looking at Q3, the lowest price seemed to be $29,789. Unless I've got this whole thing wrong, that is the current cost basis for Tesla.

I agree Sept 30 does not matter as regards impairment. I included that day's price because the last line of the 10Q I included called out the value as of that day: "The fair market value of such digital assets held as of September 30, 2021 was $1.83 billion."
In other words, as of that post it was worth more than $1.83B.

 

[Skipdd]

During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

Ok, I've read all the responses to your posting above. I will just say a few things:

• I respectfully disagree. While you may think you are repeating, most of us do not and besides sometimes you need to hear things multiple times in different ways to understand the point
• Now I have to go back and catalog all your old posts and periodically read them to get that information and perspective. I mean really, that is a LOT of work to have to do, sheesh. I am only half-kidding...
• You are going to do what you are going to do. Thanks for what you have done and be well

 

[MD70]

Long article about the problems at Boeing. Mentions Musk and spacex in passing. The main lesson for me is companies need to be be primarily run by people who make things and not been counters. I hope in the long run Tesla promotes from within.

How Boeing Was Set on the Path to Disaster by the Cult of Jack Welch

The once-great company was gutted by a series of bosses who put making money ahead of making airplanes–and 346 people died. Now a new book adds to the list of damning indictments.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[RobDickinson]

Any business has a propensity towards stability and thats where the MBA's and accountants come in, change us scary from a financial pov and they never consider the prospect of being replaced by a smaller faster more risk friendly company.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I wonder how many FSD v10.x there will be until 11.0 comes out, and the milestones needed to hit it.

I think their goal has been single stack for a while now. I'm not sure why the freeway still requires the old Autopilot stack. My guess is no 11.0 until single stack.

 

[RobDickinson]

Usually you change a major version number when there is a major change, like single stack or a new UI.

But its arbitrary so who knows.

 

[navguy12]

I have no clue what you're talking about

If already satisfactorily answered, disregard.

Back in Sep 2018 was the first time I took my TM3 to the inlaws in suburban Ottawa, the local time was mid afternoon and the local K-6 school had just let out for the day.

Even the copilot noted the little kids pointing to the car and yelling out “Look, it’s a Tesla…cool”.

I’ll wager those are the kids that will want a Tesla in 10-15 years…

 

[Thekiwi]

Long article about the problems at Boeing. Mentions Musk and spacex in passing. The main lesson for me is companies need to be be primarily run by people who make things and not been counters. I hope in the long run Tesla promotes from within.

How Boeing Was Set on the Path to Disaster by the Cult of Jack Welch

The once-great company was gutted by a series of bosses who put making money ahead of making airplanes–and 346 people died. Now a new book adds to the list of damning indictments.

www.thedailybeast.com

Agree with this - CEOs that come from a career in the finance or sales areas of a hardware company more often seem to have issues - whereas those that come from design and/or production management seem to thrive as leaders. A lot depends on what the company is actually in business to do off course.

Look at Microsoft: Gates was amazing, Balmer (sales) was a terrible buffoon, Satya Nadella (product guy) is doing great.

Also look at Apple, was impossible to find a product design guy as good as Steve Jobs, and the first time he was replaced as CEO by a sales guy who Steve Jobs himself chose: John Sculley (who of course was a disaster) and was followed by more useless sales focused CEOs until Jobs returned. Next time around Steve didn’t make the same mistake and with his choice of successor, Tim Cook, made sure he had a logistics & production guru who had spent the previous decade as Apple COO figuring out how to build and manage the massive supply chain and manufacturing base needed to translate Steves remarkable product designs into hundreds of millions of annual device shipments that are all completely refreshed with new iterations every single year. (People wrongly dismiss Tim Cook as a “bean counter” when he is nothing of the sort - he has a degree in industrial engineering and spent his whole career as an operations guy).

IBM, Hewlett-Packard: ruined by sales people.

Product guys don’t always work out of course - Krzanich was an engineer but really didn’t help Intel at all

 

[CorneliusXX]

We have another little milestone for Austin. Stamping testing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1467594549216358413

 

[Krugerrand]

We have another little milestone for Austin. Stamping testing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1467594549216358413

Look at them just waste money! SELL!! (Just getting ahead of the curve)

 

[nativewolf]

If I was a short seller, I would totally tried to get rid of intelligent posters like @jbcarioca @KarenRei @FactChecking, and promote useless jokesters like the rest of you on here.

Lots of truth to that. Blind homerism is not healthy nor is acting like to some clearly far more valuable to the community.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

• Now I have to go back and catalog all your old posts and periodically read them to get that information and perspective. I mean really, that is a LOT of work to have to do, sheesh. I am only half-kidding...

Don't bother, I'm already on it and I'm going to be reposting JB's old posts as my own over the next few years to trick you all into thinking I'm not one of the useless posters ZeApelido referenced.

 

[mblakele]

Japan eyes easing lithium-ion battery storage rule | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

A Japanese government panel plans to study whether regulations on storing lithium-ion batteries can be eased in the country.

www3.nhk.or.jp

 

[dhrivnak]

If already satisfactorily answered, disregard.

Back in Sep 2018 was the first time I took my TM3 to the inlaws in suburban Ottawa, the local time was mid afternoon and the local K-6 school had just let out for the day.

Even the copilot noted the little kids pointing to the car and yelling out “Look, it’s a Tesla…cool”.

I’ll wager those are the kids that will want a Tesla in 10-15 years…

My Ahha came a few months earlier as I drove my Model 3 home, through the mountain back roads, on the way home from the service center back in March 2018.

 

[ninpb]

We have another little milestone for Austin. Stamping testing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1467594549216358413

What a sight it would be when they get to this phase with the humanoids.

 

[elasalle]

Futures Green so far (& fingers crossed) ... BTC recovered back to 48K but hasn't crossed 50K... 52K was supposed to be the previous support ...
we need a few green days before numerology Day ...

we also have China Numbers, santa rally, GF openings and Q4 numbers to look forward to ...

 

[BornToFly]

Nightly news had a big story tonight about how electric cars are destroying the rain forest because of nickel mining....

How much did Big Oil and GM pay for that one...?