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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I almost used margin for the first time today...decided not...but I was really thinking about buy 100 shares
Margin has good uses. However, in my opinion, never use margin unless you are either prepared to meet a margin call or the margin cost is less than the dividend yield. I have never used margin except when both applied. The risks of margin nearly always end out being excessive in any other situations, and even questionable then. If your US margin cost is less than 2% pa at the moment you probably need no advice at all.
 
Predictions are irrelevant in this market but any thoughts on when we may see our high of 1240$ again?
Obviously it'll be just after Elon finishes selling and FOMO begins for 4Q earnings.

Wait! Everyone already knows about both of those events. So maybe sooner?

Wait! MM's know that we know that they know. So maybe they'll naked short the stock even harder into year end?

Wait! Put volume is so extreme for year end that might not be optimal. So MM's will need to add support at any dips to $950, right?

Hmmmmmm..... difficult to say. All I will say is it's unlikely I'll be able to buy 2024 $1200/$1400 call spreads for $40 after 4Q earnings are released. Therefore my answer is..... January 12th.
 
This hourly candle showing over 12m shares traded in the first hour looks suspect of Elon's selling. Let's see what is filed with the SEC this week. If it's planned selling and the number of shares is higher than 934,091, that'll be the signal that Elon is trying to wrap thing up just before a material event.

The question is how low that will take us? 50 DMA @ 985? Long term trendline @ 950? Breakout gap @ 910?
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Wouldn't timing the sale of stock, in any fashion, based on non-public information be considered insider trading?
 
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Wouldn't timing the sale of stock, in any fashion, based on non-public information be considered insider trading?
Not if it's specified in the 10b5-1 plan filed with the SEC. If he's got this whole thing planned months in advance that's entirely possible. Now, whether he knew for sure if some event is going to happen on 12/9 is a debate I don't want to get into. 🤣
 
Margin has good uses. However, in my opinion, never use margin unless you are either prepared to meet a margin call or the margin cost is less than the dividend yield. I have never used margin except when both applied. The risks of margin nearly always end out being excessive in any other situations, and even questionable then. If your US margin cost is less than 2% pa at the moment you probably need no advice at all.
So glad you’re still here posting @jbaricoa!

I use margin as sort of an ATM on our brokerage. At 1.85% it’s the cheapest money I can source. instead of selling shares. We’re long shares only. I aim for 5% in good times but very judiciously so to not pass 10%.

That said, even being long shares only…that 5% margin has turned into 10+% (during a TSLA sell-off) it’s tempting to buy shares on margin; but for me it’s gotta look INCREDIBLY oversold and even then I don’t have the cahonas to hold those long term; usually just end up selling those at modest gains just to have captured the dip and usually end up with a few extra shares.

With all that; I have found margin to be a very scary endeavor; but can be useful if used with extreme caution.
 
Not if it's specified in the 10b5-1 plan filed with the SEC. If he's got this whole thing planned months in advance that's entirely possible.
I don't have any experience with 10b5-1, but it seems like the selling plan cannot rely on any non-public information. The timing of an announcement would be non-public.


Even if filed months in advance, how does the 10b5-1 get around that?
 
I don't have any experience with 10b5-1, but it seems like the selling plan cannot rely on any non-public information. The timing of an announcement would be non-public.


Even if filed months in advance, how does the 10b5-1 get around that?
I mean, I don't want to sound like a fanboi, which I am, but we're talking about Elon Musk here. The guy probably knows what is going to happen and when precisely it is going to happen for the next decade. If divinely judged based on his knowledge, he's probably not gonna be able to buy or sell anything ever. Whether that can be proven in a court of law is another matter. Now, I know the law is supposed to prevent insider trading, but how is selling shares before a split going to help Elon?
 
Confirmed: the "SEC probe" story is apple sauce:


Today's story was a Reuters report, based on a FOIA request submitted by the Tesla "whistleblower" himself, about a lawsuit that was settled with Walmart 2 years ago. And yes, sad whistleblower is STILL fired.

Neither Tesla nor the SEC would provide a statement to Reuters. Bad day at the raunch, huh?

:p
 
Perfect opportunity to teach them about market TSLA volatility and how it should be ignored, etc…. Or, and this would be my preferred approach, lie and tell them you bought the shares earlier this year in the 600s. You’ll be their hero.
@Don TLR good granddad! I also bought one (1) share for my uncle @$1100 around a month ago. He lives on a small army pension but was envious of my TSLA stories. That week it dropped $100 so I sold, swallowing the loss, and rebought at $1000 without him knowing. One share is crumbs to me (I transferred money into the account he let's me manage for him) but a big deal to him. Am happy to resell his share again at a loss if it goes down again, just so he can tell his friends and kids about how his TSLA share has grown in value!