Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

On days like today I typically see Tesla trading in the 2.5-3x range to NDX. Yes the Beta is high, but Tesla isn't like any other similar sized company. Yahoo Finance puts Tesla's 5 Year monthly Beta at 2.04. That's probably around Tesla's average but Tesla seems to outperform this on big up days. Tesla's Beta should settle down in future years, especially after we reach Investment Grade ratings. But for today it looks like we have to settle for a Beta that's under 1, thanks to the shorts and I suspect Elon selling another tranche.

Today is the sort of day we used to see big 10% corrections but there's too much headwind at the moment for that. We're down nearly 10% from this time last week and the NASDAQ has nearly made back all of that.

It looks to me like Elon just sold into the pop today.

 

[elasalle]

Stellantis Software Event today claims that software (automated driving and UI) will account for $20B of value for Stellantis by 2030. They even showed a mock up of a car with a landscape oriented big center screen with almost no buttons/knobs in the cockpit. I tell you this is the future.

by 2026, we will have 25 K, Model Q
competitions will need a lot of hail Mary Barras to keep up

 

[thx1139]

That makes no sense unless you think Tesla isn’t ever going to produce the 25k version. I did pretty good at math in school and so I believe 25k<45k<60k.

So your ‘future’ doesn’t even exist if Tesla simply continues their path forward.

The world is not static. EV pricing isn’t static. What people will or will not be able to afford in the future is not static. Do not apply today to tomorrow; that would lead you to incorrect conclusions.

You did not understand what I said. I am countering the narrative that Tesla doesnt need for EV prices to be lower to maintain demand. People look at Tesla's selling like hotcakes at $60K and say no EV incentive is needed. I say if that is truly the case then no $25K car is the case. I dont believe this for 1 minute. I believe people are being clouded by this short term demand. Dont get me wrong I am long on Tesla, but that is also with the belief that Tesla has a long term view. That includes lowering prices on 3 and Y, introducing new versions of 3 and Y and introduction of lower prices smaller EV.

The future indeed is not static, but also we cant count on everyone who purchases new cars in the $25K range in 2021 will purchase $60K cars in 2025.

 

[StealthP3D]

Cool and did not know that! Also, I was wondering if there were blackouts on the island and how well people's lights are on through catastrophic flooding right now (with solar/storage) compared to previous disasters (with no solar/storage).

Solar is still a small part of Hawaii's power grid, around a 4 to 1 ratio if you include wind and most renewable energy is not well backed up with battery storage. Grid reliability in storms has less to do with production and storage and more to do with distribution. Above ground power lines are the weak link.

 

[elasalle]

I just get the feeling that Linette just isn't that smart.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468265704851869696

Looks like Chanos made some good money on Draft Kings etc on the Market dip in past few days ... is firing up his media crew

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just realized that the CPCA numbers will be released tomorrow at 4pm Beijing time......so they'll come out around midnight our time (Pacific). I have a feeling today might be last chance to get TSLA shares in the low-mid 1,000's.

 

[SN_8]

Stellantis Software Event today claims that software (automated driving and UI) will account for $20B of value for Stellantis by 2030. They even showed a mock up of a car with a landscape oriented big center screen with almost no buttons/knobs in the cockpit. I tell you this is the future.

The vehicle they're showing there appears to be the same as a prototype I saw as part of an EV owner focus group last year. We were asked to rate all physical aspects of about 20 vehicles... mostly hideous outdated production vehicles, a model X, and this one. It was beautiful on the inside. Sleek, modern, sans buttons, spacious... lots of cues taken directly from Tesla. But I doubt Stellantis produces anything close to it this decade.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Deliveries where? I thought all of Fremont production was staying here in the US or North America, and doesnt make sense shipping them over the panama canal. Unless we're talking S / X here. And I am not sure they're shipping those over to Europe / China yet.

They ship to Taiwan, as importing there from China aint a good idea. Two ships from SFO to Taipai already this quarter

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

But is Mobileye doing badly? Last I checked, they were in a lot of cars?

basic TACC and FCW implementations in lots of dodgy ice cars. Most advanced implementations are in BMW and Volvo. Blue cruise in the dodgy new Ford MacheE is an old version of the EyeQ ! Chip shortages ? Why ?

 

[StealthP3D]

You did not understand what I said. I am countering the narrative that Tesla doesnt need for EV prices to be lower to maintain demand. People look at Tesla's selling like hotcakes at $60K and say no EV incentive is needed. I say if that is truly the case then no $25K car is the case. I dont believe this for 1 minute. I believe people are being clouded by this short term demand. Dont get me wrong I am long on Tesla, but that is also with the belief that Tesla has a long term view. That includes lowering prices on 3 and Y, introducing new versions of 3 and Y and introduction of lower prices smaller EV.

The future indeed is not static, but also we cant count on everyone who purchases new cars in the $25K range in 2021 will purchase $60K cars in 2025.

Please stop! No one thinks the cheapest EV will be $60K in 2025. It's already a lot lower that! Have you been hiding under a rock for the last 4 years?

 

[MXWing]

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New ETF from ARK starts trading tomorrow. Tesla is a top holding. So we can look for more inflows if people invest here.

 

[lafrisbee]

I don't think she has any personal animosity or desire to harm Tesla. That said, her primary job as a professional is to follow the guidance of management, her superiors. That's how you advance your career. Watch her body language as she walks off the stage at the end of the interview. To me, it clearly communicates that she failed to properly carry out guidance from superiors.

This shouldn't surprise anyone familiar with the corporation's coverage of Elon and Tesla. Remember, they own Barrons, Investor's Business Daily, the WSJ. Have you even read the ridiculous articles they publish? Hello?

Or she could have just survived having one of the smartest, savviest guys in techdom and the intersphere, on the biggest stage in the CEO/WSJ arena live.
But you got me...I didn't stick around to watch her walk off the stage. Maybe I need to prove my point by how she walks after the interaction... reminds me of my ...well I'd just get a mean ol nasty letter in my box.

 

[Tigerkc]

You did not understand what I said. I am countering the narrative that Tesla doesnt need for EV prices to be lower to maintain demand. People look at Tesla's selling like hotcakes at $60K and say no EV incentive is needed. I say if that is truly the case then no $25K car is the case. I dont believe this for 1 minute. I believe people are being clouded by this short term demand. Dont get me wrong I am long on Tesla, but that is also with the belief that Tesla has a long term view. That includes lowering prices on 3 and Y, introducing new versions of 3 and Y and introduction of lower prices smaller EV.

The future indeed is not static, but also we cant count on everyone who purchases new cars in the $25K range in 2021 will purchase $60K cars in 2025.

I think one needs to think of the auto demand being elastic. Currently, demand is high while supply is limited, and Tesla cannot produce fast enough to meet demand. They are correct to raise price to capture extra profit, but this does not mean the price will stay high forever. As production rate starting to catch up to the consumption rate, Tesla will lower the price to simulate demand.

Currently 25K model does not make sense as battery capacity and cost are the limiting factors, but in a few years, the lower cost model will make sense.

 

[SOULPEDL]

But is Mobileye doing badly? Last I checked, they were in a lot of cars?

They're claiming in 60M vehicles? Doing what tasks? where? Not full self-driving, or am I completely ignorant of the competition here. I'm still reviewing their website and they have an impressive drive across Israel. They are still planning duality of sensor fusion between camera and lidar. This complicates the code and creates opportunity for confusion according to Tesla, I agree.

Redundancy for Tesla means to mirror the electronics and code, then use an AND gate on a separate chip as the arbitrator without judgement, and only there to make sure the results are identical (as needed to survive component level failure or a bullet wound). OTOH, having a second opinion on perception from 2 separate sensor mediums is not redundant in the same way. Instead it's more like a backstreet driver with a possible fight waiting to breakout. I'm obviously biased as I'm using FSD today, but I strongly agree with Elon on this flawed sensor duality. I still think Tesla ignores their sonar a bit too often, but maybe that's by design for proper vision learning on the driving tasks. Maybe sonar is not needed for parking in the future. Some microphones might help as a way to direct focus for increased situational awareness.

There is a decent coding pool of resources in Israel and I was always impressed by their custom automation solutions at Intel. Question for me is... what's the real number of Mobileye vehicles equipped like what was shown in the video? How many miles driven with FSD engaged? I couldn't find data which should really matter to me as an investor. But I doubt it will get the same scrutiny as Tesla; anything that remotely sounds like Tesla competition is an automatic favorite in the media and on the Street IMHO.

 

[Krugerrand]

You did not understand what I said. I am countering the narrative that Tesla doesnt need for EV prices to be lower to maintain demand. People look at Tesla's selling like hotcakes at $60K and say no EV incentive is needed. I say if that is truly the case then no $25K car is the case. I dont believe this for 1 minute. I believe people are being clouded by this short term demand. Dont get me wrong I am long on Tesla, but that is also with the belief that Tesla has a long term view. That includes lowering prices on 3 and Y, introducing new versions of 3 and Y and introduction of lower prices smaller EV.

The future indeed is not static, but also we cant count on everyone who purchases new cars in the $25K range in 2021 will purchase $60K cars in 2025.

And I still don’t understand your point.

We’re not expecting anybody who could only afford a $25k purchase today to pay $60k tomorrow, and I don’t know why you’d think that!?!? That makes zero sense.

The cost of EVs will be LESS tomorrow than they are today. Tomorrow Tesla will make a $25k EV, thus those that today can only afford to spend $25k can pay $25k tomorrow and get a new EV.

 

[lafrisbee]

I don't think she has any personal animosity or desire to harm Tesla. That said, her primary job as a professional is to follow the guidance of management, her superiors. That's how you advance your career. Watch her body language as she walks off the stage at the end of the interview. To me, it clearly communicates that she failed to properly carry out guidance from superiors.

This shouldn't surprise anyone familiar with the corporation's coverage of Elon and Tesla. Remember, they own Barrons, Investor's Business Daily, the WSJ. Have you even read the ridiculous articles they publish? Hello?

She did a great job from my perspective. I am a Tesla Fan.

 

[thx1139]

Please stop! No one thinks the cheapest EV will be $60K in 2025. It's already a lot lower that! Have you been hiding under a rock for the last 4 years?

Of course we dont and that is what I have been saying. We cant expect Tesla demand to stay where it is in 2021/2022 with $60K cars. If we did then Tesla would have no need to produce a $25K car. This is the exact same reason I am saying that the EV tax credit is important. The demand constraint now is caused by production constraints. For manufacturers other then Tesla the tax credit provides some cushion to produce cars in mass and make a profit.

The Tesla investor in me says screw them. The person who wants my children and grandchildren to not be in a world devastated by climate change says provide subsidies for EVs to kill ICE vehicles ASAP.

My point is we need the EV incentives to cause manufacturers other then Tesla to more rapidly move from ICE to EV. Tesla will benefit as well, although Tesla doesnt need the incentive to dominate. Yet if it makes it easier for Tesla to say introduce the $25K EV earlier at say $30K and still have a healthy margin then that is an added bonus.

 

[thesmokingman]

The person who wants my children and grandchildren to not be in a world devastated by climate change says provide subsidies for EVs to kill ICE vehicles ASAP.

You're missing Elon's point. The EV subsidies are a counter to the current and long standing oil subsidies. He said they all should be stopped. Tesla doesn't need the subsidy and they haven't had any for two years going.

 

[thx1139]

You're missing Elon's point. The EV subsidies are a counter to the current and long standing oil subsidies. He said they all should be stopped. Tesla doesn't need the subsidy and they haven't had any for two years going.

Which is a pipe dream that will never come true. Could you imagine the Democrats pushing through a bill ending oil subsidies and the resulting mass increase in gasoline prices. Would be a bloodbath in government like you have never seen and the GQP would immediately turn around and put them back in place and be hailed as the saviors to end all saviors.

Cant let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

 

[Boomer19]

Their CEO was just on CNBC. He was spewing vaporware on the level of Mary Bara, it was hilarity.

of course. plenty of dumb money yet, as we progress through the adoption curve.

legacy is selling their stock (on CNBS, etc) to support their lack of product.

however, neither of them are compelling at this point, to those that know. unfortunately there are a majority who do not.

we’re still very early in the curve, even though we here sometimes mistakenly assume otherwise. best to step back once in a while for perspective