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From Walter Isaccson’s book on Steve Jobs: “One of Job's business rules was to never be afraid of cannibalizing yourself. ‘If you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will’

Musk is as close we have had to a Steve Jobs. I do agree, though, that the $25k model shouldn’t be announced until it’s almost ready to go. To do otherwise would be to risk the Osborne Effect.
Steve Jobs was an amazing businessman. One of the best. But even his reputation (which has grown since his death) doesn't hold a candle to Elon Musk.
 
Tesla can afford to Osborne itself with its year-long wait times for new orders. Might even be a smart move to prevent lots of huge price adjustments.
But why would they? Yes, right now, demand is far outstripping supply but to assume that will continue, even for the medium term, would be an unwise business decision.

Considering this the investors forum and thread and not the Tesla fanboi thread, I would think that we’d want them to make good business decisions.
 
Lol. That’s probably the most insane thing I’ve ever heard.

Elon recently became richest man ever and he is scarcely 50. Jobs didn't even reach 1/10th Rockefeller impact level. Odds are good Elon will be responsible for putting the first man on Mars and being the founder of the first extraplanet human civilization. Jobs made a phone in China. A what? What made it smart exactly? Autocowreckt? We lived on one planet once mom?

More speculatively if the US collapses in revolution Elon would be a decent odds on favorite for the Napoleon role. Bio: napolelon(ho/he/ho). The flamethrowers are prepared. This is especially true if he wires his brain to the donated body of a younger human (its really quite justifiable now that I think about it).

Unless IntlProfessor says anything I assume he concurs.
 
I caught a lot of flak in 2018 for predicting the Tesla Model 3 would hold its value on the used market at the top of it's class (vs. ICE). People countered with EV's lose resale value more quickly than ICE. They couldn't seem to grasp the Tesla was different than a Bolt or a Leaf. However, I never predicted it would actually appreciate in value and we have already seen some of that! And FSD isn't even a thing.
I've been all in on Tesla stock since before then and I got that call wrong. Depreciation was a hard and fast rule my entire life, always cheaper to buy a used car 2 to 3 years later instead of grabbing the new car.

Man have I been hit across the face with Tesla pricing so many times since then.
 
But why would they? Yes, right now, demand is far outstripping supply but to assume that will continue, even for the medium term, would be an unwise business decision.

Considering this the investors forum and thread and not the Tesla fanboi thread, I would think that we’d want them to make good business decisions.
Similar to how Tesla is trying to smooth the end of quarter delivery wave, they may want to smooth the Osborne wave. If Tesla announces the Model 0 immediately before launch, they may lose fewer total Model 3 reservations, but the cancellations will be more abrupt. Supply chain is a huge deal right now, and an early announcement gives Tesla more time to tweak supply chain forecasts based on a more gradual demand shift. An earlier announcement would also create more goodwill for customers. If there’s a very sudden drop in demand, Tesla could drop prices drastically, but that pisses off people who just bought at the higher price. Plus waiting a year for a car is not a great experience.

Also realize that the Model 0 will likely Osborne more ICE car sales than Tesla sales. This is in line with Tesla’s mission.
 
Also realize that the Model 0 will likely Osborne more ICE car sales than Tesla sales. This is in line with Tesla’s mission.
I agree. Model 3/Y haven't really had an "Osborne Effect" on Model S/X.

Tesla panned to build 20 Million EVs per year by 2030, before they saw how strong demand was.

I see Model 0/C as needing the following:- (My guesses)
  • A final design, and a prototype.
  • A factory to build it, with sufficient logistics and staging. (and minimal impact on other production and deliveries).
  • LFP battery cells (IMO 4680 format)
  • All other parts required.
  • Casting machines (IMO 4000 series front and rear castings)
  • A metal roof? (Seats on battery pack)
  • Cloth seats?
  • IMO HW4, as it should be cheaper.
I think the factory to build it may currently be a pile of dirt next to the existing factory in Shanghai.

Regardless of what the actual list of requirements is, as soon as they can be satisfied, Tesla will build it. Impact on Model 3 sales isn't even a consideration.

I would guess the Chinese team are handling most of this while Berlin and Austin are busy with Model Y and Cybertruck.
 
I’ve been curious about the claim repeated here. What is our evidence that Tesla production workers are better paid than UAW, particularly relative to prevailing wage? I’m not talking about hand waving about options but something that stands up.

It's not "hand-waving" to include all employee compensation. The options have intrinsic value when granted, even before the share price rises one dollar. But I do think the pay and compensation is no better at union shops even if one irrationally excludes that Tesla rewards their employees' efforts with the value they add to the company through stock options, If the compensation data is publicly available, and I doubt it is, I would like to see it but, from everything I've seen, it's a lot better working at Tesla. If it wasn't, they would unionize.

It's wrong for the government to treat companies differently based upon the decisions their employees make in their own best interest. The unions would love to get into Tesla but they can't even get enough votes to consider unionizing. The employees believe they are better off without a union. And I think it's pretty obvious the employees are correct.
 
As a European looking from the outside in at what's happening in the USA, I think that Tesla (and so are we) is suffering from the battle between two parties in the USA.

Of course the USA president knows very well that Tesla is leading, the man is not a fool. Nor are his advisors.
He knows Tesla is expanding like crazy and is important for the USA economy.
But in the battle between two parties he must get all the possible future votes he can get. So he is convinced he needs the unions.
The result is sending messages about EV's that are utterly incomprehensible.

As a TSLA shareholder I detest them, but to me the reason is obvious.
Just my reasoning, please do not let the above become the beginning of a discussion of politics in this thread, it is not meant for that.
 
I’ve been curious about the claim repeated here. What is our evidence that Tesla production workers are better paid than UAW, particularly relative to prevailing wage? I’m not talking about hand waving about options but something that stands up.
If you read the whole thread, even if options are sold with no appreciation, Tesla employees do at least 13% better. Comparative references to accommodate for geography are: MI==NV and TN==TX.

Andrew Jebasingh (@ajebasingh) Tweeted:
I decided to compare what factory workers make with GM+UAW, vs. Tesla. The results were shocking.

I looked at three comparable roles across both companies, and tried to keep cost of living out by selecting similar locations.

tldr: Tesla factory workers make 24% to 47% more. https://t.co/3jrxQD3sQG
 
As a European looking from the outside in at what's happening in the USA, I think that Tesla (and so are we) is suffering from the battle between two parties in the USA.

Of course the USA president knows very well that Tesla is leading, the man is not a fool. Nor are his advisors.
He knows Tesla is expanding like crazy and is important for the USA economy.
But in the battle between two parties he must get all the possible future votes he can get. So he is convinced he needs the unions.
The result is sending messages about EV's that are utterly incomprehensible.

As a TSLA shareholder I detest them, but to me the reason is obvious.
Just my reasoning, please do not let the above become the beginning of a discussion of politics in this thread, it is not meant for that.
I'd also add that whatever the US government decides in terms of subsidies will have almost zero bearing on Tesla, and maybe they know this too, but the not-very-big-three are likely to go out of business without this stealth bail-out

Innovation will win. People will vote with their $$$ for the best product, even if it costs more. And Tesla aren't exactly standing still