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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Just spoke to a colleague who had been of/off the fence in getting a Tesla. He just took delivery of a M3 AWD. He did a few things aftermarket to get it to his liking. Bottomline, he loves it - "Can't believe I waited this long,...now I see what all the hype is about...I love Autopilot." He had a truck and was spending $500/month on gas. He ran the numbers and based on value of the car and his savings, he figured he could change his mind (I don't think that is going to happen) and sell the car at the end of a year and still be ahead of the game. Nothing but good words about the car. I'm sure he will be a new advocate across his circle. Investment thread because he is an example of Tesla taking more marketshare - he traded a pick-up truck for a M3.
 
Teslabjorn just tested the EQS 580 4matic.

2760kg, 511km range at 90 vs Raven LR model S at 644km.

Fat and inefficient. This is a purpose built EV.
Pretty decent for a legacy car maker. Obviously can't measure by teslas standards who has been iterating on the model S since 2012 or so.

Happy to see it has plenty of range for road tripping. IMHO anything over 200 mile range is road trip capable, based on what I saw on abetterrouteplanner.com for different cars and my typical trips.

Just checked out Bjornes noise test and looks super impressive
 
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Pretty decent for a legacy car maker. Obviously can't measure by teslas standards who has been iterating on the model S since 2012 or so.

Happy to see it has plenty of range for road tripping. IMHO anything over 200 mile range is road trip capable, based on what I saw on abetterrouteplanner.com for different cars and my typical trips.
Yes, well, ah, but I actually disagree, not to be difficult but to show just how far ahead Tesla is.

Let's review:

1. MBZ is, IIRC, the oldest car brand on the planet, well over 100 years old?
2. They've had almost a full decade to dissect Tesla's Model S's, to include Ravens (since 2019).
3. They have, supposedly, the best engineers on the planet.
4. Yet their purpose-built, from the ground up, EQS can't come close to the range of the previous generation Model S?!?

The phrase "dead men walking" comes to mind, and we'll likely be able to include BMW and now VW in that group too (CEO has been de-powered for being too pro-EV).

Disruption incoming, and accelerating. (And I can see why they're still slowing the permits for GigaBerlin.)
 
^This. @goinfraftw , when you texted your sister on 10/08/20 TSLA was $434, and you thought a more than doubling of valuation of that time to $1000 in just over one year later would be spectacular. And this on top of an already 5X gain from $85 just eight months earlier. Simply spectacular, so we all thought. And here we are, TSLA at $1,000. Wow. Spectacular, right? Not so fast some of us are now saying in dismay. Many here are jaded because TSLA was 25% higher only six weeks ago. Don't let this demish anyone's enthusiasm for TSLA being were it is today. TSLA will get back to its ATH (which I believe is very unlikely for most OEM and EV startups) in due course. @Curt Renz has the band on standby until then.
So in the words of Teri Hatcher (put into context of TSLA's share price), "They're Real and They're Spectacular!"
 
Quick, Text her “TSLA is likely $1.2k end of next week”!!

Actually option market seems to be pricing in $950 as the price in 1 year:

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... and probability of SP > 1200 is only ~25%, which I think would mean that Jan 2023 1200 CALL is underpriced by factor of 2x and 1200 PUT overpriced by 2x ( or 3x??).

I've tried to compare it to few other stocks big/small stable and volatile: AAPL, RKLB, BYND and none of them has this strong skew. The skew is minor TSLA opts exercise dates before Summer 2022.

This seems so much off that I am going to review it one more time tomorrow, but if it hold true I may move more of my option positions to Jan 2023, because arbitrage opportunity is just too large to ignore.
 
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^This. @goinfraftw , when you texted your sister on 10/08/20 TSLA was $434, and you thought a more than doubling of valuation of that time to $1000 in just over one year later would be spectacular. And this on top of an already 5X gain from $85 just eight months earlier. Simply spectacular, so we all thought. And here we are, TSLA at $1,000. Wow. Spectacular, right? Not so fast some of us are now saying in dismay. Many here are jaded because TSLA was 25% higher only six weeks ago. Don't let this demish anyone's enthusiasm for TSLA being were it is today. TSLA will get back to its ATH (which I believe is very unlikely for most OEM and EV startups) in due course. @Curt Renz has the band on standby until then.
So in the words of Teri Hatcher (put into context of TSLA's share price), "They're Real and They're Spectacular!"

I'm...gonna leave this forum now. Thanks for everything, all.
 
I know a drunk text when I see one. Last time I drunk texted my much younger millennial sister it was to complain that I had watched the Bo Burnham Netflix special they all thought was genius and my impression was that it was a bunch of whinging about how bad the world was when they really should just get their own house in order first before worrying about that.

In other words. The kind of stuff I tweet [redacted].

As I told the tmc folks (to shut down my account) - I'm being a distraction more than helpful these days. Wish you all well and will be holding TSLA for quite some time for the rest of the shares I have left.
 
People say this information is not trustworthy.

A source close to IDRA, the supplier of Giga Press, stated that Tesla will die-cast all four doors of the vehicle in the next step, instead of the traditional stamping process. cz the efficiency of die casting is higher than that of stamping.

I would have to build maybe 3 prototypes and evolve the design a bit to know if this is true.

Does anyone know the yield strength of the as cast aluminum?