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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Well, it looks like today is the day we test that infamous TA-myth.
So far, it is not looking good: TSLA opened ($945) inside the gap ($910-950) and touched down to a low ($930) of roughly the middle of the gap, then rose above the top.
It was mentioned yesterday on this thread, that the top of a gap can act as support until its broken, but when its broken it would fill all the way.
It has clearly been broken, but only filled half-way. If we close above the gap today without filling it, then the myth is busted.

There's 3 more days this week. Lower-BB is down $50 in the past 3 days. All hedgies need to do is ride the Lower-BB (via capping) until Friday, and that will automatically fill the gap.

Ironically, its the shortzes showing patience these daze. :p
 
Again I said at a certain level of wealth. Many of the billionaires have been very public with the dont take any income and live entire life on very low interest loans with stock wealth as collateral. Easy to say an actual mortgage isnt subject to this, easy to say car loan isnt subject to this. I say non-fundable as to avoid games being played when they choose to pay off loan(s).

The biggest problem, as Elon himself pointed out, is gov spending. You could tax all US Billionaires 100% and that would cover US Gov spending for what? A month? Perhaps less? Taxation at that level, however, would stifle innovation, which would then have a compounding effect by reducing job growth, etc. etc.

You should really watch Elon's interview, he boils it down extremely nicely.
 
To be fair, many of the OEM have been reporting record profits this year and will continue to in the coming quarters.. overall units sold is not going to be records since many high volume OEM had to cut ~100-250K from their production targets. But profit wise, at the manufacturer and of course the dealer networks have been strongly in the black and even with reduction in volumes, reported very strong years. So, I wouldn’t paint them all with the struggling brush.
This isn't entirely accurate. Most reporting record profits did so because of extraordinary events (i.e., Rivian investment, Nikola investment, market performance impacting future pension obligations) or because of their financing arms. Their core auto businesses are actually bleeding cash. That's the thing about manufacturing at scale. If you suddenly lose 200k of production capability, the margins on ALL of your cars sold is impacted, due to factory costs being absorbed on fewer units.

Ford's 9-months ended September 30, 2021:

$6.5B Income Before Taxes
LESS $3.8B Other Income (Pension and Investments Revaluations)
LESS $3.7B Ford Credit Operating Margin
= -$1B Income Before Taxes from Vehicle sales on 2.8M wholesale units sold (111k fewer than 2020)

Based on the above, I would actually contend that that Ford may still have not been structurally profitable on vehicle sales if they had met 2020 unit volumes. Not surprising considering pandemic and all.

A deep dive in to many other OEMs would likely get you to some similar conclusions on unit economics as it relates to their vehicle businesses.
 
This isn't entirely accurate. Most reporting record profits did so because of extraordinary events (i.e., Rivian investment, Nikola investment, market performance impacting future pension obligations) or because of their financing arms. Their core auto businesses are actually bleeding cash. That's the thing about manufacturing at scale. If you suddenly lose 200k of production capability, the margins on ALL of your cars sold is impacted, due to factory costs being absorbed on fewer units.

Ford's 9-months ended September 30, 2021:

$6.5B Income Before Taxes
LESS $3.8B Other Income (Pension and Investments Revaluations)
LESS $3.7B Ford Credit Operating Margin
= -$1B Income Before Taxes from Vehicle sales on 2.8M wholesale units sold (111k fewer than 2020)

Based on the above, I would actually contend that that Ford may still have not been structurally profitable on vehicle sales if they had met 2020 unit volumes. Not surprising considering pandemic and all.

A deep dive in to many other OEMs would likely get you to some similar conclusions on unit economics as it relates to their vehicle businesses.
Yup, thanks for pointing that out. You saved me some time on writing that post. Ford has been fudging earnings all year. They'll likely continue to be able to do this for the next couple of quarters while inventory is tight and their Rivian stake holds up before the lock out period ends, but once those two factors crumbled....and they will.....the curtain will close on Ford. It's going to be fun to watch.
 
Interesting that this isn't listed as being a limited edition. (And hasn't gone out of stock yet.) The scalpers that bought a bunch and put them on eBay immediately may end up stuck with them, or selling them for a loss. ;)

Profit should be really good on these, the knock-offs, which look really close to the real thing, were selling for ~$30 on eBay.
Would like that as a bumper sticker for my old S.
 
It's not quite as bad as you make it out to be. Mars' solar constant is around 590 W/m² as compared to Earth's 1360 W/m² (43%). As Mars has a very thin atmosphere, most of that irradiation also reaches the surface while Earth's atmosphere filters out quite a bit, so the potential for solar is around half of that of Earth or even a bit higher. While the dust storms could pose a problem, this is very much solvable by utilizing the stored rocket fuel for a backup generator, be it a gas turbine or (preferably) a methane fuel cell. With some clever engineering, the setup for producing the methane could probably double as a generator in dire times by just running it in reverse.

Source: Mars Fact Sheet
As a lifelong sci-fi'er I love space and the big ideas, but as an engineer I am a bit flummoxed by the Mars happy talk I see here and elsewhere. Even if we get a tiny human presence under some Martian domes at incredible risk and expense over the next decades, there is no conceivable way to live sustainably on Mars. I loved "The Martian" (movie) but as best we can tell, can't actually grow anything on Martian soil, even cleverly bringing our own bacteria. Soil microbes cannot survive in any of the heavy-metal-contaminated toxic "soil" (really pulverized regolith) that we know of on Mars. And even if they could, we now know it took those early microbes 1-2 billion (!) years to form the biological substrate that plants eventually were able to utilize here on Terra Firma - and that was done with better atmosphere and solar conditions, a Van Allen belt to shield them, a temperature above 0, life-friendly oceans (!) and many other helpful terra-centric factors.
I dearly hope we all put 99% of our resources on saving this planet over the next 50 years. It's where we have to live for the VERY FAR foreseeable future. Glad to see Tesla doing this and glad to see some of what SpaceX does, but priorities, folks! Climate crisis (and related deforestation/biodiversity crisis) MUST be the priority.

TL;DR Mars is not suitable for human civilization any time soon. Let's help Tesla work to keep earth that way!
 
That's a good point. If you're using collateral to take value out of your holdings it should be treated as income. You are no longer just holding it. You are essentially using it as income to live off of. It would still make the tax percentage paid look miniscule but it would at least close that loophole for paying zero taxes.
That doesn’t make sense, you are borrowing money and paying interest on it, which is non deductible. Why should you need to pay income tax over borrowed money? If you refinance your home, and take money out, do you pay tax on that money as well? No!
 
Did Toyota get a mention here yet today? (Besides paying key FOB) My search was all old stuff. Anyway Toyota decided to invest 35B with a goal to build 3.5M BEVs by 2030.

Anyway, I watched Trudeau's speech yesterday and wonder if Canada's firm stance against the MIA discounts somehow triggered Toyota to jump into EVs all the sudden. My hypothesis, based mostly on the timing, is that Canada put a monkey wrench in US plans (in favor of Hybrids) which caused Toyota to capitulate rather suddenly.

Just a gut feel, anyone have anything else to connect these events? Or does Toyota have new respect for Tesla and China's GigaFactory with clear momentum in the EV space? Toyota understands factories. Tesla showed almost no humans in the clip, and anyone "working" was more or less watching in case. It got me wondering how close to a Lights-out Factory they are anyway.
 
This isn't entirely accurate. Most reporting record profits did so because of extraordinary events (i.e., Rivian investment, Nikola investment, market performance impacting future pension obligations) or because of their financing arms. Their core auto businesses are actually bleeding cash. That's the thing about manufacturing at scale. If you suddenly lose 200k of production capability, the margins on ALL of your cars sold is impacted, due to factory costs being absorbed on fewer units.

Ford's 9-months ended September 30, 2021:

$6.5B Income Before Taxes
LESS $3.8B Other Income (Pension and Investments Revaluations)
LESS $3.7B Ford Credit Operating Margin
= -$1B Income Before Taxes from Vehicle sales on 2.8M wholesale units sold (111k fewer than 2020)

Based on the above, I would actually contend that that Ford may still have not been structurally profitable on vehicle sales if they had met 2020 unit volumes. Not surprising considering pandemic and all.

A deep dive in to many other OEMs would likely get you to some similar conclusions on unit economics as it relates to their vehicle businesses.
F didn’t record any of the Rivian investment in Q2 or Q3 this year, and probably won‘t even in Q4 other than balances sheet assets.. and yet, they had record profits. I’ll agree, if op-ex goes down and revenues go UP, well then we get outsize profits due to lower manufacturing costs, materials and headcount. Similar was true with GM (and in that case they actually did a WRITE DOWN of investments which could have been profit offsetting).. POAHY also had records.. My only point is that not “all other manufacturers are struggling”. It’s just not the case. If F was struggling so much, my position wouldn’t be up 4-5 fold.. same with GM. We can also look at Japanese OEM’s TM, and european as well, again all reporting records. If it’s really just a shell game and not real, they sure have everyone believing it.
 
This isn't entirely accurate. Most reporting record profits did so because of extraordinary events (i.e., Rivian investment, Nikola investment, market performance impacting future pension obligations) or because of their financing arms. Their core auto businesses are actually bleeding cash. That's the thing about manufacturing at scale. If you suddenly lose 200k of production capability, the margins on ALL of your cars sold is impacted, due to factory costs being absorbed on fewer units.

Ford's 9-months ended September 30, 2021:

$6.5B Income Before Taxes
LESS $3.8B Other Income (Pension and Investments Revaluations)
LESS $3.7B Ford Credit Operating Margin
= -$1B Income Before Taxes from Vehicle sales on 2.8M wholesale units sold (111k fewer than 2020)

Based on the above, I would actually contend that that Ford may still have not been structurally profitable on vehicle sales if they had met 2020 unit volumes. Not surprising considering pandemic and all.

A deep dive in to many other OEMs would likely get you to some similar conclusions on unit economics as it relates to their vehicle businesses.
This is complete nonsense FUD. Ford specificaly breaks out their automotive EBIT on their earnings report. That number YTD through the first 3 quarters is a profit of 5.767 billion
 
This is complete nonsense FUD. Ford specificaly breaks out their automotive EBIT on their earnings report. That number YTD through the first 3 quarters is a profit of 5.767 billion

That 5.7 billion numbers includes "Other Income". In fact, their ENTIRE operating profit in Q2 2021came from their Rivian stake. We specifically pointed that out here when Ford released those earnings.

Once they can't use "chip shortages" as an excuse to artificially limit supply which keeps their margins afloat, their earnings are going to crumble. But sure just ignore that 🤷‍♂️ 🙃
 
Every day we lose 2% or 5%, I have to remind myself that a few months ago, there was a daily battle to break 700 after clawing our way back from the 500's. I sold Dec 800 calls at a nice premium back then and thought, hell, I'll be happy if we get to 800 by mid December even if the chairs get called away.

I'm kinda kicking myself, though, for watching that jump to 1200+ and not taking some profits. It went up and down faster than a Blue Origin flight. Oh well, still way ahead of where I thought we'd be. Fill the gap and carry on, I guess.
 
F didn’t record any of the Rivian investment in Q2 or Q3 this year, and probably won‘t even in Q4 other than balances sheet assets.. and yet, they had record profits. I’ll agree, if op-ex goes down and revenues go UP, well then we get outsize profits due to lower manufacturing costs, materials and headcount. Similar was true with GM (and in that case they actually did a WRITE DOWN of investments which could have been profit offsetting).. POAHY also had records.. My only point is that not “all other manufacturers are struggling”. It’s just not the case. If F was struggling so much, my position wouldn’t be up 4-5 fold.. same with GM. We can also look at Japanese OEM’s TM, and european as well, again all reporting records. If it’s really just a shell game and not real, they sure have everyone believing it.
3.8B other income was driven almost entirely driven by market revaluation of pension adjustments. Their profit last year was a mark to market of RVN. You can of course pick whichever narrative you want. They will also have another Other Income entry in Q4 courtesy RVN. There will be a mark to market as of the IPO and revaluation of those assets under US GAAP at year end as well (that will flow to Net Income). I'm sure you'll just chalk that up to another record quarter for them as well?
 
Whether it's Elon's shares or your calls ... does it matter ;)

macros stink with Fed meeting in the way. Hoping for some good news heading into EOY.
+ Hope he takes a break for X'Mas - or he will be Santa for the Shorts and MM ;)

There's a lot of incentive for him to wrap it up this year actually. He would pay more taxes on anything he sells next year if the BBB plan passes I believe. I could be wrong so maybe someone can correct me on that.

Which is part of the reason I see further downside considering how the market has been able to front run every Elon sell.