Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Lets not act like simply being in the body make it easy to get tax laws enacted. Hell we cant even get a law securing people the right to vote passed.

Boohoo. It’s hard.

WTH did you go to Washington for? The easy problems have all been solved.

Sure, my job is hard, so I’ll attack the guy that’s trying to tackle global warming and interplanetary human spaceflight.

 

[torifile]

So in the past 4 days, we’ve had many multiple pages talking about the windshield wiper on the cybertruck, colonizing mars, inheritance tax code, and Elizabeth Warren.

Not a chat room, eh? Suuuurrrreee, mods.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:

• Yet more blatantly political posts have been axed. Some members have found themselves on a 3-day timeout; blame the Christmas Spirit for it not having been longer.
• This persistent use of the thread to bring to the attention some obscure, back-in-a-dark-recess of the internet, aka Mr Musk's Twitter feed, also has to end. The chances of anyone here who is interested in what he has to say on Twitter and hasn't/will not quickly find it....well, they're even lower than my getting a Safety Score of 100. Moderators have been instructed to use the Big Eraser. This thread is NOT to be used as a Twitter-Echo.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Two different things. The acceleration of option selling prior to year end determines how many total shares he get to keep from this. Higher taxes=less shares for Elon.

The twitter poll sell came from appeasing to his critics about not paying taxes so he purposely picked core shares vs new shares to sell to maximize tax payments. He could have picked newly acquired shares and pay barely any taxes as they have no/little unrealized gains. Either way he still ends up with exactly the same amount of shares by picking core or newly acquired shares.

So one is to maximize share gain, the other is to maximize tax payment while not sacrificing number of total shares.

And reduce long-term tax exposure at potentially higher rates……

 

[AudubonB]

While bigger tunnels is one solution, another solution is smaller containers.

Slice a container in half along the horizontal and vertical axis, now make it a bit smaller so 4 of these can easily pack within a regular container.
Shipping freight in tunnels would also need special sleds/trucks, which is where Tesla comes in.

A big plus would be these small containers could more easily fit in a lift for transport above ground and to higher floors.

But when a lot of the cars are in tunnels there is more room above ground for trucks, so it could go either way, freight in tunnels isn't essential.

But smaller containers has one other advantage, more timely delivery, rather than delivering a big container once per day, 4 smaller containers could be delivered at different times, providing more chance to slip in additional stock during the day. Or if inventory runs low, and additional 5th container can be dispatched.

The application I'm thinking specifically about is Supermarkets, often these need to be located at street level due to shipping logistics.
But any retail business turning over high volumes of stock is a candidate, mail and package logistics are a candidate.

It is quicker to pack a smaller container than a big one, overall the packing time is the same, but each container spends less time at the warehouse in a semi-packed state.

Obviously if the Boring Company is successful, it will buy a lot of vehicles and batteries from Tesla.

That is truly the single worst logistical nightmare idea of an "improvement" to this or any other nations' transport system I may ever have read. An utter horror-waste of time, resources, time, manpower, time, beginning & endpoints, and time.

On edit: I am happy to see the OP having taken my words with equanimity; in response I'll be a bit more polite and simply go Fagin: "I think you want to think it out again."

 

[Todd Burch]

Had a thought earlier that I just wanted to share.

One thing that surprised people recently is Tesla’s decision to open up their Superchargers to other manufacturers.

“But that is one of Tesla’s big moats!” they said. I was one of them.

I know Tesla’s mission is to advance the advent of sustainable energy and all that jazz, but ultimately Tesla is a competitive business responsible to its shareholders. So I have a theory:

I think the main reason Tesla felt comfortable opening up Superchargers wasn’t for the additional revenue. And It wasn’t primarily to advance the mission. I think the reason they were so comfortable doing it is because with the 4680s they are able to sustain a much higher charge rate, and for much longer, than anyone else.

So even with the Superchargers open to competitors, they don’t have to worry about demand because their battery and charging moat will be huge.

(And they probably also realize everyone else is fighting for battery scraps and Tesla couldn’t meet world demand for EVs even if they had a more substantial moat).

 

[Stretch2727]

Toyota And Lexus Preview EV Onslaught, Unveil 15 Future Models

Not counting the bZ4X, Toyota has previewed 15 upcoming EVs from the Toyota and Lexus brands during a press briefing held in Japan on December 14.

insideevs.com

Listened to most of the presentation and Q and A. My impression is they are being dragged unwillingly into EV's and are in panic mode.

The basic strategy is all in on everything, ICE, FCEV, PHEV and BEV. Let the customers decide. They have raised the BEV target from 2 million to 3.5 million for 2030 which is 35% of their current volumes.

There was one good question where the journalist asked what Mr. Toyoda preferred. First I think he admitted he did not drive until recently. In the end he did not really answer the question and went on a tangent about competitive driving which I really did not understand.

Still a lot of love for Hybrids and ICE. Even a statement about the lovely noise from ICE engines compared to the no sound BEV. There was even one part where they stated we don't get complaints from customers about ICE.

 

[tivoboy]

8 years in working in the body that writes the tax laws and she is complaining about how people pay tax?

Technically, tax laws are written in the House of Representatives, not the Senate

 

[ZachF]

Toyota And Lexus Preview EV Onslaught, Unveil 15 Future Models

Not counting the bZ4X, Toyota has previewed 15 upcoming EVs from the Toyota and Lexus brands during a press briefing held in Japan on December 14.

insideevs.com

Listened to most of the presentation and Q and A. My impression is they are being dragged unwillingly into EV's and are in panic mode.

The basic strategy is all in on everything, ICE, FCEV, PHEV and BEV. Let the customers decide. They have raised the BEV target from 2 million to 3.5 million for 2030 which is 35% of their current volumes.

There was one good question where the journalist asked what Mr. Toyoda preferred. He did not really answer the question and went on a tangent about competitive driving which I really did not understand.

Still a lot of love for Hybrids and ICE. Even a statement about the lovely noise from ICE engines compared to the no sound BEV. There was even one part where they stated we don't get complaints from customers about ICE.

Yeah… I think Mr Toyoda-San was probably the biggest obstacle to EVs and someone must’ve ELI5ed to him a chart of declining battery costs and what it means for the ICE industry (doooom)… and maybe it finally sunk in.

 

[Nolimits]

Had a thought earlier that I just wanted to share.

One thing that surprised people recently is Tesla’s decision to open up their Superchargers to other manufacturers.

“But that is one of Tesla’s big moats!” they said. I was one of them.

I know Tesla’s mission is to advance the advent of sustainable energy and all that jazz, but ultimately Tesla is a competitive business responsible to its shareholders. So I have a theory:

I think the main reason Tesla felt comfortable opening up Superchargers wasn’t for the additional revenue. And It wasn’t primarily to advance the mission. I think the reason they were so comfortable doing it is because with the 4680s they are able to sustain a much higher charge rate, and for much longer, than anyone else.

So even with the Superchargers open to competitors, they don’t have to worry about demand because their battery and charging moat will be huge.

(And they probably also realize everyone else is fighting for battery scraps and Tesla couldn’t meet world demand for EVs even if they had a more substantial moat).

I sure hope the analysts see it that way too. Would love to see more PT hikes while Elon continues to sell.

 

[heltok]

Shanghai delivered 145k in it's first year.
I can see an argument for a faster ramp at Berlin and Austin but I think 300k would be a stretch. . . .I would love for Tesla to shock the world though !!

My 2022 number of 1.5m vehicles assumes:
732k - Shanghai
510k - Fremont
146k - Berlin
146k - Austin

While Berlin has not been allowed to start production, I think Tesla have been busy preparing to ramp. It’s harder to find the bottle necks when you are not allowed to run full steam, but on the other hand it’s easier to work when you don’t have to put out fires all the time. Meanwhile their suppliers have had ample time to prepare to ramp and probably there is a good stock of many parts. So my own guess is that yeah Berlin has been delayed a lot, but the ramp has been delayed less. So I am gonna guess 200k Berlin, 200k Austin(150+50).

 

[bpjod]

I think the main reason Tesla felt comfortable opening up Superchargers wasn’t for the additional revenue. And It wasn’t primarily to advance the mission. I think the reason they were so comfortable doing it is because with the 4680s they are able to sustain a much higher charge rate, and for much longer, than anyone else.

So even with the Superchargers open to competitors, they don’t have to worry about demand because their battery and charging moat will be huge.

Imagine waiting 40 minutes for your Not-A-Tesla to charge at a Supercharger while in the adjacent charging spot you see 3 different Teslas pull in, charge, then resume their journey.

Marketing.

 

[RobDickinson]

So long as berlin gets going soonish it'll be fine, I cant see them holding it back much longer.

Its a very large advertisement against investing in Germany

 

[EVDRVN]

While Berlin has not been allowed to start production, I think Tesla have been busy preparing to ramp. It’s harder to find the bottle necks when you are not allowed to run full steam, but on the other hand it’s easier to work when you don’t have to put out fires all the time. Meanwhile their suppliers have had ample time to prepare to ramp and probably there is a good stock of many parts. So my own guess is that yeah Berlin has been delayed a lot, but the ramp has been delayed less. So I am gonna guess 200k Berlin, 200k Austin(150+50).

Perhaps the Tesla shop in Germany should release "Tesla Soda" carbonated drinking water in cast cans made from scrap metal.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I think Elon will need to see the results of this go 'round before he decides.

FTFY

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Shanghai delivered 145k in it's first year.
I can see an argument for a faster ramp at Berlin and Austin but I think 300k would be a stretch. . . .I would love for Tesla to shock the world though !!

My 2022 number of 1.5m vehicles assumes:
732k - Shanghai
510k - Fremont
146k - Berlin
146k - Austin

Don't forget Tesla has given guidance that Fremont is set to expand by 50%. While we don't know the timeline, I think 600k out of Fremont is possible in 2022.

 

[PlaidCPA]

Is there a Macro economy thread anywhere in this forum? Macros are starting to influence my investment decisions way more than I expected and it seems there's no separate thread for these discussions.

 

[mblakele]

Is there a Macro economy thread anywhere in this forum? Macros are starting to influence my investment decisions way more than I expected and it seems there's no separate thread for these discussions.

Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

Hi folks, Per earlier request, I'm creating this thread for general discussion of macroeconomic forces affecting the entire market or large segments of the market, from the perspective of and for the benefit of Tesla Motors investors. I'll start with a few links I find useful (others, please...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

Toyota And Lexus Preview EV Onslaught, Unveil 15 Future Models

Not counting the bZ4X, Toyota has previewed 15 upcoming EVs from the Toyota and Lexus brands during a press briefing held in Japan on December 14.

insideevs.com

Listened to most of the presentation and Q and A. My impression is they are being dragged unwillingly into EV's and are in panic mode.

The basic strategy is all in on everything, ICE, FCEV, PHEV and BEV. Let the customers decide. They have raised the BEV target from 2 million to 3.5 million for 2030 which is 35% of their current volumes.

There was one good question where the journalist asked what Mr. Toyoda preferred. First I think he admitted he did not drive until recently. In the end he did not really answer the question and went on a tangent about competitive driving which I really did not understand.

Still a lot of love for Hybrids and ICE. Even a statement about the lovely noise from ICE engines compared to the no sound BEV. There was even one part where they stated we don't get complaints from customers about ICE.

Dead men walking.

 

[Bouboule]

Imagine waiting 40 minutes for your Not-A-Tesla to charge at a Supercharger while in the adjacent charging spot you see 3 different Teslas pull in, charge, then resume their journey.

Marketing.

Sorry if it was said before when this news came out, but here are my thoughts:
GOOD for marketing
GOOD for branding as an energy company
GOOD for generating revenue for growing the network
RISKY for the transition/ramp

Tesla is already having difficulties ramping superchargers to meet demand. I would be pissed as F***K if I had to wait for an over EV to charge 40min.