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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Re Berlin. At one point does Tesla throw in the towel and look for a new factory location anywhere that isn’t Germany. There has to be a point that it becomes worth it to just start again somewhere else. Britain maybe?
ROFL, and then start dealing with EU importation, customs, the fact that you’re on an island that has failed miserably in its post-Brexit economic “supply chain plan”?

GigaBerlin is past the point of no return. For all parties involved.
 
Imagine waiting 40 minutes for your Not-A-Tesla to charge at a Supercharger while in the adjacent charging spot you see 3 different Teslas pull in, charge, then resume their journey.

Marketing.
Yes, big advantage. Unfortunately, that’s also what I see with my “yes, it’s a Tesla” 2015S70D, though I do get “free” charging. I’ve always felt that the SCs are great marketing tools.

Edit: @Bouboule sorry to have to break this to you, but some of us early adopters with old batteries are still here and still slowly charging, sometimes over 50 min. Just remember, we paid to keep Tesla in business long enough to produce the faster charging EVs. Oh, and my MS70D cost $2M in lost TESLA stock gains. Please be patient with me. Thanks.

To be slightly on topic, I am planning to replace my 2015 with a new plaid in a year or two, so that should add to the company’s financials. With financial gains from TSLA, I was also planning to buy a model Y for a family member. Unfortunately, the media FUD is working and they have declined at this point. So, you see FUD works. Has anyone ever turned down a free car from Oprah? Well, in this case, it’s happened (though I’m definitely not Oprah). Strange how strong FUD really is.
 
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Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 years old how someone selling 2% of all the TSLA shares available in the world can make the stock plunge more than 30% in less than 1 month. Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 to reprogram the markets algorithm to make it more efficient so that if someone sells 10% of his shares if he holds 20% of the company to drop the stock price only of 2%. I have not found an answer to my question on howthingswork.tsla

(I understand there are front runners and other funds selling)
 
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MODERATOR:
  • Yet more blatantly political posts have been axed. Some members have found themselves on a 3-day timeout; blame the Christmas Spirit for it not having been longer.
  • This persistent use of the thread to bring to the attention some obscure, back-in-a-dark-recess of the internet, aka Mr Musk's Twitter feed, also has to end. The chances of anyone here who is interested in what he has to say on Twitter and hasn't/will not quickly find it....well, they're even lower than my getting a Safety Score of 100. Moderators have been instructed to use the Big Eraser. This thread is NOT to be used as a Twitter-Echo.

The attack on Elon by the lady Senator is not confined to Elon's Twitter feed (hardly an obscure recess of the Internet, since he has 66.4 million followers). Today I received a mass email from the Senator's organization, titled "Elon Musk" and containing the same attack and misleading slogans. I believe the Senator's organization has a large email list left over from her Presidential run. I believe she remains a powerful force in her powerful party.

So I will risk deletion and banning to point out that folks wishing to defend Elon and their own unrealized TSLA gains need a better argument than "She should do her job instead of attacking and complaining about the tax laws." The Senator is attempting to do her job by creating pressure to change the tax laws. She is using her bully pulpit of Twitter and a national email list. I believe this concerns Tesla investors.

I don't know the best rebuttal to her attack, but it might include the unintended consequences of her tax proposal, while respecting her concern for the poor and exploited. I personally respect those concerns of hers, but I share @Paracelsus's disgust (currently undeleted) for her shallow thinking on this issue, and her ignorant and/or mendacious attack. I will never support her again, unless the alternative is far worse.
 
Income doesn't happen "over years" it happens when you get the paycheck.
Ahh, short term income then.

Elon worked for years to get this payday. Apples to apples, the taxes paid by Vermont over those same years would be the apples to apples comparison. Vermont just pays on the yearly plan. That was my point just to make the apples to apples comparison.

EM will be making tax history this year it seems. There will be lots of discussion of income and taxes and that is good even though I would rather be discussing the 4680 cell evolution.🙂
 
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Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 years old how someone selling 2% of all the TSLA shares available in the world can make the stock plunge more than 30% in less than 1 month. Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 to reprogram the markets algorithm to make it more efficient so that if someone sells 10% of his shares if he holds 20% of the company to drop the stock price only of 2%. I have not found an answer to my question on howthingswork.tsla

(I understand there are front runners and other funds selling)
HFT makes up a huge amount of total volume. Those 17 millions shares are really not just under one days average volume, they are probably a couple of weeks of average share trading.

Also many buyers are holding off thinking will not stop going down until he stops selling. Self fulfilling and all that…
 
Forward Observing

Gifting ~ our daughter received a week ago her family Model Y. They love the car. I sat in the drive’s side rear seat. I loved the feel ~ not used to backseat. The feel was night and day an improvement over sitting in the same location of one of the first Model 3s in October 2017 at the factory (Fremont) driven by a a Tesla “plant.”

The GrandPups have not sold any of their shares from Grandma and me.

While I have not been given a ride in the Y, I have walked around, around and around their Model Y. Nothing is miss-aligned ~ nothing. The wiper are really cool. I need more time to study then, I am not convinced that they do not have cameras. Our 2019 Model X does not have as sophisticated wipers. Our wipers are as jerky as me.

My daughter wants to get a used Model 3 as a training car for our ~ four years from now as her training car. Nothing Grandparents will not do for the Pups ~ thank goodness we only have two.

If someone gives up the option to own, rent or lease a Tesla based on FUD ~ well that is just sad. My son-in-law will probably sneak off with my CT.

Everything is FUD in life ~ hence my call sign MajorBS49. Find the truth, your truth.
 
Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 years old how someone selling 2% of all the TSLA shares available in the world can make the stock plunge more than 30% in less than 1 month. Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 to reprogram the markets algorithm to make it more efficient so that if someone sells 10% of his shares if he holds 20% of the company to drop the stock price only of 2%. I have not found an answer to my question on howthingswork.tsla

(I understand there are front runners and other funds selling)
The short answer is: options.

The longer answer is as follows. TSLA is a single ticker, yet it is the single largest options market in the entire stock market. TSLA by itself is responsible for 50%, and no I did not just stutter, of the entire options volume of the NASDAQ. It is such a vast options market that even a small shift in the underlying results in a massive volume of options traded not just by individual and institutions but also by market makers who use options to hedge buying and selling of shares to make the market. This is a snowball effect everytime any reasonably sized block of shares is bought or sold, such as oh I don't know for example Elon selling almost 1 million shares in 1 day. Basically every day Elon sells, a small gamma squeeze to down side occurs and magnifies the effect a hundred fold. This is why TSLA, despite having a $1 Trillion market cap, is as volatile as it is. Every day TSLA moves significantly in any direction results in a mini-gamma squeeze as the underlying shifts and results in a huge options volume which in turn pushes the underlying further in that direction.

Being a TSLA shareholder is like living on that planet in Interstellar where giant tidal waves constantly travel over it's surface.
 
Had a thought earlier that I just wanted to share.

One thing that surprised people recently is Tesla’s decision to open up their Superchargers to other manufacturers.

“But that is one of Tesla’s big moats!” they said. I was one of them.

I know Tesla’s mission is to advance the advent of sustainable energy and all that jazz, but ultimately Tesla is a competitive business responsible to its shareholders. So I have a theory:

I think the main reason Tesla felt comfortable opening up Superchargers wasn’t for the additional revenue. And It wasn’t primarily to advance the mission. I think the reason they were so comfortable doing it is because with the 4680s they are able to sustain a much higher charge rate, and for much longer, than anyone else.

So even with the Superchargers open to competitors, they don’t have to worry about demand because their battery and charging moat will be huge.

(And they probably also realize everyone else is fighting for battery scraps and Tesla couldn’t meet world demand for EVs even if they had a more substantial moat).

Charging speed will get a little faster with 4680 cells but the biggest moat Tesla has is efficiency of manufacture. That's why Elon is not worried about being able to sell every car they make even as they continually ramp volume rapidly higher. He knows that Austin and Berlin are using everything they learned in Shanghai to make their factories and production processes even faster and more efficient. No one can match their unit cost (and stay in business). When you have this most important advantage, you don't have to worry about the competition. What I find most reassuring is that Tesla is not competing against others, they are competing against themselves, against the way they built cars last month. Constant improvement.

I think it's odd that so many people are still worried about competition. They worry that other manufacturers will build a car as good as Tesla without considering how much it will cost them to build each one. It's the most over-looked "moat" Tesla has against every other manufacturer and that moat is growing constantly wider, not only as Tesla out-innovates the competition when it comes to manufacturing improvements but also as Tesla ramps each model to volumes no other model can match. These two factors create a synergy between them leading to an unassailable market dominance. Without even considering AI, autonomy, robots, solar and energy storage, Tesla has insane profit potential just in auto manufacturing.

That is the advantage of disrupting an industry that allowed itself to become too smug, too bloated, too comfortable, too inefficient. "Only we know how to make quality cars in high volumes", they said. Tesla is but a flea on a giant and they only make a tiny fraction of the millions of cars we make. EV's are a niche product, if demand for EV's ever materializes we will make them in large numbers and crush Tesla.

Ho-ho-ho! Merry Christmas and happy New Year to TSLA investors! I hope everyone is fully loaded or will be very shortly.
 
The short answer is: options.

The longer answer is as follows. TSLA is a single ticker, yet it is the single largest options market in the entire stock market. TSLA by itself is responsible for 50%, and no I did not just stutter, of the entire options volume of the NASDAQ. It is such a vast options market that even a small shift in the underlying results in a massive volume of options traded not just by individual and institutions but also by market makers who use options to hedge buying and selling of shares to make the market. This is a snowball effect everytime any reasonably sized block of shares is bought or sold, such as oh I don't know for example Elon selling almost 1 million shares in 1 day. Basically every day Elon sells, a small gamma squeeze to down side occurs and magnifies the effect a hundred fold. This is why TSLA, despite having a $1 Trillion market cap, is as volatile as it is. Every day TSLA moves significantly in any direction results in a mini-gamma squeeze as the underlying shifts and results in a huge options volume which in turn pushes the underlying further in that direction.

Being a TSLA shareholder is like living on that planet in Interstellar where giant tidal waves constantly travel over it's surface.
Yep, many factors have aligned to make TSLA an options trading opportunity of a lifetime. If you are a shareholder, you must be in the game. Not to be missed.
 
ROFL, and then start dealing with EU importation, customs, the fact that you’re on an island that has failed miserably in its post-Brexit economic “supply chain plan”?

GigaBerlin is past the point of no return. For all parties involved.
Yah. I’m sure your right. It just seems like it must cost a lot on a daily basis to have a factory just sit there. Really I know very little about this type of stuff. Crappy position for Tesla to be in though. Hope they get it worked out.
 
Something for the ‘off’ hours 😉
C2E1EF38-98B4-484B-8C3B-AF7C319F234F.jpeg
November 1992. Maybe another due Nov 2022🤔 w/ EV1 cover
 
Something for the ‘off’ hours 😉View attachment 744537November 1992. Maybe another due Nov 2022🤔 w/ EV1 cover
Beautiful, amazing car, but not as good as a 1991 Honda Accord, or an E90 BMW. But the important thing for this forum is:

Even in 1957 GM took share with a car that at least looked like it did not need to go to the petrol station. GM knew in a fundamental way that people did not want to be reminded of that fossil fuel part of the experience. [For those who don't know, this is a photo of the fuel port.]

Looking like an electric car, with [visual] associations with a rocket ship worked for GM to control 50% share of the US market in the mid 1950s. [This kind of says Tesla is on a demonstrated path to 50% share, just under the monopoly limit.]

Mary's company led in understanding of customer preference. Elon is actually delivering, more than just a comfort thought or illusion of eco friendly.
 
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Charging speed will get a little faster with 4680 cells but the biggest moat Tesla has is efficiency of manufacture. That's why Elon is not worried about being able to sell every car they make even as they continually ramp volume rapidly higher. He knows that Austin and Berlin are using everything they learned in Shanghai to make their factories and production processes even faster and more efficient. No one can match their unit cost (and stay in business). When you have this most important advantage, you don't have to worry about the competition. What I find most reassuring is that Tesla is not competing against others, they are competing against themselves, against the way they built cars last month. Constant improvement.

I think it's odd that so many people are still worried about competition. They worry that other manufacturers will build a car as good as Tesla without considering how much it will cost them to build each one. It's the most over-looked "moat" Tesla has against every other manufacturer and that moat is growing constantly wider, not only as Tesla out-innovates the competition when it comes to manufacturing improvements but also as Tesla ramps each model to volumes no other model can match. These two factors create a synergy between them leading to an unassailable market dominance. Without even considering AI, autonomy, robots, solar and energy storage, Tesla has insane profit potential just in auto manufacturing.

That is the advantage of disrupting an industry that allowed itself to become too smug, too bloated, too comfortable, too inefficient. "Only we know how to make quality cars in high volumes", they said. Tesla is but a flea on a giant and they only make a tiny fraction of the millions of cars we make. EV's are a niche product, if demand for EV's ever materializes we will make them in large numbers and crush Tesla.

Ho-ho-ho! Merry Christmas and happy New Year to TSLA investors! I hope everyone is fully loaded or will be very shortly.

In fact, manufacturing efficiency is, to a large degree, the sole moat the Japanase manufactures (Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, etc) had when they took USA by storm in the 1980s. Their cars did not have any large technological advantage, but they were much cheaper to produce, a lot more reliable, all due to much better manufacturing processes.
Tesla is taking this sort of moat to a much higher level, coupled, for the coup de grace, with tremendous amount of new tech.
 
I am genuinely interested to know if anyone had any insight into this?
IMO, the intent of the federal rebate is to generate bankable demand. I sometimes say “purchase orders” from the dealers. GM for example, can use these POs in the various lending markets to get development loans. This ”should” work well providing GM can use the loans well and produce great numbers of EVs. They have a pretty good truck and customer loyalty on their side. Interest rates are low.

This results in the banks etc shouldering the loan rather than the government. We need lots of EVs, and okish EVs are easily built. It won’t happen until the batteries are available but if batteries come then it should work. The rebate accelerates the transition to EVs by customers and serves as the rationale for easy access to lending.

The banks make some money. Workers have jobs. Customers get an incentive to a better vehicle. The Earth benefits from reduced pollution. American competitiveness increases.

Yes this will cost money but money is required to make a better future and this is just one of several industries that will be required to make enormous transitions.

Tesla plays a key role as the young aggressive competitor that will take their customers if they don’t act fast. There will be very little time for the dealer networks to find a way to survive/thrive however. The banks will likely suffer through some bankruptcy pressures in that area.

There will be political pressures and others against success but it stands a good chance of working out towards many interests survival benefit as I see it.
 
Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 years old how someone selling 2% of all the TSLA shares available in the world can make the stock plunge more than 30% in less than 1 month. Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 to reprogram the markets algorithm to make it more efficient so that if someone sells 10% of his shares if he holds 20% of the company to drop the stock price only of 2%. I have not found an answer to my question on howthingswork.tsla

(I understand there are front runners and other funds selling)
If a hospital has ten nurses (shares) but nine are off duty (shares that can't be pried from our cold, dead fists) and three doctors are all going into surgeries, the services of the one nurse will be in high demand and the doctors all bid up the price for her services. Suddenly three nurses come back on duty (Elon selling shares) and there is now a surplus of nurses in the hospital. Now the doctors can renegotiate. "I know I told you I'd help you change 3 adult diapers but now I have other nurses to choose from so good luck with those diapers".