Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I just bought two more batches, 925 and 927!

People are going to want to own this stock as soon as they learn Elon is done selling.
All I know, is I’m basically out of dry powder by now and not looking at the daily price movements, i. e. On Marketwatch, Fidelity, etc. until everyone here (ahem artful dodger, curt renz, Winfield100) all agree Elon has completed his last sale. Until then, I’m playing dead.
 
All I know, is I’m basically out of dry powder by now and not looking at the daily price movements, i. e. On Marketwatch, Fidelity, etc. until everyone here (ahem artful dodger, curt renz, Winfield100) all agree Elon has completed his last sale. Until then, I’m playing dead.

Sorry you’re missing out on the thrill of the hunt! Missed my 927 yesterday, got 926 today! 😁
 
Zoom out just a little for a better perspective on TSLA. Short term price action sucks, but the general trejectory remains convincingly upward.
Screen Shot 2021-12-16 at 4.27.07 PM.png


Tesla couldn’t be performing better and I am the most confident than I have ever been that Tesla will continue to be the leader in BEVs, Energy transition to renewable resources, and AI, for many years to come. 2022 and 2023 will bring a huge bellwether of change and charge to BEVs. The silence will be deafening.
 
Turnovers are coming pretty frequently doesn't it

Bbbbbuut bbbuut Cruise is only one permit away from customer rides in San Francisco! Mary said and Mary led.

I‘m sure it’s nothing. Not like FSD’s progress is making any of these AV CEO’s realize their solution is not scalable even if it’s workable. Nah, probably needed a more challenging career.
 
Sizable miss, but those numbers are not really the important piece. Their cash on hand is substantial and their financials will look terrible until they start volume production... and on that... They are now guiding a miss on their production (not even deliveries) for the year. Was 1200 and will be a 'few hundred' short of that.
Your loss actually widens as you get into volume production (because you have more employees, more contracts, more overhead, more customer service, more operating expenses). Looking back at Tesla's financials, first Tesla has never made only 1m in revenue in a quarter. Their lowest revenue was 30M. They have also never had a net loss of 1.23B in a quarter even with volume production. When Tesla was making 30M dollars in revenue, their max net loss was around 100M.

So I don't know wtf Rivian is doing besides swimming in cash and not caring one lick about expense.
 
Sizable miss, but those numbers are not really the important piece. Their cash on hand is substantial and their financials will look terrible until they start volume production... and on that... They are now guiding a miss on their production (not even deliveries) for the year. Was 1200 and will be a 'few hundred' short of that.
It looks like they kitchen sinked it!
 
  • Funny
Reactions: FireMedic
To touch on this just a bit more, I remember an interview with Kevin O'Leary a year or two ago where he said it was better for Tesla to not be profitable because then Tesla would have a earnings metric which it would be judged against. And there was some truth to that. Once Tesla got a P/E multiple, it was susceptible to being targeted, especially in situation just the macro environment today.

Kevin O'Leary was saying that from a position of ignorance and misunderstanding of Tesla's business. He had no clue how good the margins were going to be and how quickly they would improve. This is what clued the market into to the real worth of TSLA and allowed TSLA to grow to and hold it's current valuation.

The seed of his statement was probably planted by the TSLAQ myth that the TSLA growth story would come crashing down when Tesla posted a profit and people could see the P/E mispricing with their own eyes. It's a story predicated on Tesla being a struggling automaker and, as we all know, they are anything but that.
 
Your loss actually widens as you get into volume production (because you have more employees, more contracts, more overhead, more customer service, more operating expenses). Looking back at Tesla's financials, first Tesla has never made only 1m in revenue in a quarter. Their lowest revenue was 30M. They have also never had a net loss of 1.23B in a quarter even with volume production. When Tesla was making 30M dollars in revenue, their max net loss was around 100M.

So I don't know wtf Rivian is doing besides swimming in cash and not caring one lick about expense.
Yup, after reading through the earnings, I don’t know what to think of what’s going on over there.

So many red flags there it’s hard to even keep track
 
Your loss actually widens as you get into volume production (because you have more employees, more contracts, more overhead, more customer service, more operating expenses). Looking back at Tesla's financials, first Tesla has never made only 1m in revenue in a quarter. Their lowest revenue was 30M. They have also never had a net loss of 1.23B in a quarter even with volume production. When Tesla was making 30M dollars in revenue, their max net loss was around 100M.

So I don't know wtf Rivian is doing besides swimming in cash and not caring one lick about expense.
this is very telling for Rivians Future ... they also have to be able to effectively deploy capex .. as many of you will remember Elon has mentioned this a number of times ... it is not easy to allocate capital effectively especially $$$Billions ... good luck to Rivian but my remaining dry power will be in TSLA ... i found some more couch money ... lets see if we hit $911 before Elon finishes...Tesla is the the next Tesla:p
 
So I don't know wtf Rivian is doing besides swimming in cash and not caring one lick about expense.
This is a really important point, I think. If you have BIG funding early on, you are less careful about controlling cost. Elon and Tesla were as diligent as one could reasonably be, and they barely made it (but such control is paying off dividends now).

If Rivian gets too comfortable with spending because they have so much cash on hand, it will hurt them in the long run because they won't be able to control their costs.

A good example of this is Rivian's decision to work on multiple vehicle models at the same time, before they've had any significant volume production of any model.
 
Your loss actually widens as you get into volume production (because you have more employees, more contracts, more overhead, more customer service, more operating expenses). Looking back at Tesla's financials, first Tesla has never made only 1m in revenue in a quarter. Their lowest revenue was 30M. They have also never had a net loss of 1.23B in a quarter even with volume production. When Tesla was making 30M dollars in revenue, their max net loss was around 100M.

So I don't know wtf Rivian is doing besides swimming in cash and not caring one lick about expense.
That is one thing a company with windfall of cash has to be careful about. Like what they are doing now, ramping to the secondary plant without a finished template of the first. They are currently have 10K employee and will continue to grow. And 20bln to place wild bets. Anyway that's as much cash as legacy company without the ICE baggage. Their chance may be better than the legacy due to less baggage.
 
Kevin O'Leary was saying that from a position of ignorance and misunderstanding of Tesla's business. He had no clue how good the margins were going to be and how quickly they would improve. This is what clued the market into to the real worth of TSLA and allowed TSLA to grow to and hold it's current valuation.

The seed of his statement was probably planted by the TSLAQ myth that the TSLA growth story would come crashing down when Tesla posted a profit and people could see the P/E mispricing with their own eyes. It's a story predicated on Tesla being a struggling automaker and, as we all know, they are anything but that.
O'Leary was absolutely saying it front a point of ignorance and little to zero actual knowledge of how Tesla operates.

But O'Leary ignorance is pretty much most of Wall St and old school investors. Which means good things for TSLA as a stock and it's valuation. It'll be constantly underestimated which means it will be continually surprising to the upside. Just looking at EPS estimates from Wall St for 2022, 2023, and 2024 illustrates the lack of knowledge.
 
Yup, after reading through the earnings, I don’t know what to think of what’s going on over there.

So many red flags there it’s hard to even keep track
Tesla never had an operating loss of 776M in any given quarter ever, however this is Rivian's first rodeo. Their highest was -621M trying to ramp Model 3. And based on historical trends if they follow in Tesla's foot steps, this gets a lot worst before it gets better so just wow. I can't believe the stock didn't drop 50%. Is Rivian building hundreds of service centers around the world + an entire charging infrastructure we don't know about or this is just from making like 650 trucks cause just wow!
 
That is one thing a company with windfall of cash has to be careful about. Like what they are doing now, ramping to the secondary plant without a finished template of the first. They are currently have 10K employee and will continue to grow. And 20bln to place wild bets. Anyway that's as much cash as legacy company without the ICE baggage. Their chance may be better than the legacy due to less baggage.
One big advantage Tesla had. Much of the company was financed out of Musk’s pocket. That made the spending early on a lot more disciplined. It’s too easy to spend other people’s money.
 
So I don't know wtf Rivian is doing besides swimming in cash and not caring one lick about expense.

I have a contact at Rivian. They’re unnecessarily paying for things like travel and lodging for employees that really don’t need to be traveling at all. They’re also hiring engineers not based on what’s best for the company but for ideological reasons pushed forward by the most vocal employees.
 
One big advantage Tesla had. Much of the company was financed out of Musk’s pocket. That made the spending early on a lot more disciplined. It’s too easy to spend other people’s money.
Rivian doesn't have this luxury since they are not the first mover and there are plenty of competitors. Investors give them lots of $$ to make big bets. Now they have to figure out how to go about to make wise big bets.