Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

75% of selling done and we’re down $300 from when it started. Let’s hope it’s not a linear trend because that would mean another -$100 for the last 25%. I assume/hope that buyers will jump in before we get that low though.

if what you say above ends up happening…

elon sells ~2% of float (17m/815m)
~65% of avg daily volume (17/26)
stock down ~32% over that period (850/1250)

makes sense, right?

now, obv this coincides with nasdaq taking a beating. so it’s crazy to attribute the full decline to him selling.
many established, but high flyers down ~15% at this point, tesla closer to ~25%

on the one hand it’s a nice discount for LT’ers.
- maybe eradicates a lot of swing traders.
- maybe spooked some long funds to sell as well.
- it seems clear shorts are making out like bandits.
who does elon hate the most?

the question is, will he do it this way again the next time he has a tranche of options expiring?
don’t forget, it’s a huge amount to unload for 1 executive. but something tells me he’ll find a better way next time around.

 

[S3XY]

Now your flagship Tesla can cancel the noise:

Tesla rolls out Active Road Noise Reduction for new Model S and Model X

Tesla has started rolling out its Active Road Noise Reduction feature for the new Model S and Model X. The function allows the cabin to be quieter when the vehicle is driving over rough surfaces. The feature was introduced as part of software update 2021.44.5. The following are the feature’s...

www.teslarati.com

Cheers!

I wonder if they could add a button to cancel out your passenger for when your spouse starts nagging you about your driving.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

if what you say above ends up happening…

elon sells ~2% of float (17m/815m)
~65% of avg daily volume (17/26)
stock down ~32% over that period (850/1250)

makes sense, right?

now, obv this coincides with nasdaq taking a beating. so it’s crazy to attribute the full decline to him selling.
many established, but high flyers down ~15% at this point, tesla closer to ~25%

on the one hand it’s a nice discount for LT’ers.
and it eradicates a lot of swing traders. elon hates them. but does he hate them more then he hates the shorts? it appears so.

because on the other hand, the straight shorties were gifted billons over the last month or so.

the question is, will he do it this way again the next time he has a tranche of options expiring? i think not.

Agreed. I think he did it this way to prove multiple points. Although I don’t think he imagined it would have this huge an effect.

 

[Ogre]

Ford F150 lighting battery pack size revealed..
98 kWh standard range battery capacity
131 kWh extended range battery capacity

Smaller than expected

I’m sure the rumor that it will actually have 400 miles of range will persist in spite of the fact that with a 131 kWh battery there is nearly zero chance even 350 miles range is possible.

 

[Sofie]

75%. He has sold 13M with 4M to go.

How many more days of selling is that? 3 or 4?

 

[30seconds]

I consider this to be a BIG DEAL

"According to data from nextmove, a total of 3,825 Model 3s were registered last month, giving the electric sedan a 20% share of Germany’s midsize market segment."

Tesla Model 3 beats VW, Mercedes Benz, and BMW to become Germany's most popular midsize car in November

In what is becoming a familiar story, Tesla is once again outselling the competition in Europe ahead of the official opening of Giga Berlin. This time it is the Model 3 in Germany, which was […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[MaxPain]

How many more days of selling is that? 3 or 4?

He's been selling about 900k shares each day so 4-5. But the total number is pure speculation. Is he going to sell exactly 10% or...

 

[30seconds]

Now if Tesla can only catch GM

 

[Singuy]

if what you say above ends up happening…

elon sells ~2% of float (17m/815m)
~65% of avg daily volume (17/26)
stock down ~32% over that period (850/1250)

makes sense, right?

now, obv this coincides with nasdaq taking a beating. so it’s crazy to attribute the full decline to him selling.
many established, but high flyers down ~15% at this point, tesla closer to ~25%

on the one hand it’s a nice discount for LT’ers.
- maybe eradicates a lot of swing traders.
- maybe spooked some long funds to sell as well.
- it seems clear shorts are making out like bandits.
who does elon hate the most?

the question is, will he do it this way again the next time he has a tranche of options expiring?
don’t forget, it’s a huge amount to unload for 1 executive. but something tells me he’ll find a better way next time around.

Seems like Elon's announcement plus weekly selling gave a lot of love to put buyers which magnified via delta hedging to the downside, cancelling out all the call buying delta hedging post q3 earnings.

My speculation, after shares hit 910, share will spike up as rotations to growth comes back post tax loss harvesting rally and wipe out all those put buyers, making sure all of those put options expire worthless.

 

[winfield100]

Elon was definately both acquiring, and selling shares today
He acquired 2,151,940 shares and sold the magical 934,091 shares, has acquired 79% and has gained almost 3 million more shares
has another about 5.7 million to acquire and sell around 2.5 million of those
(the next 12 tranches between now and 2028 will be 4-5 times as disruptive

addendum:
It has been also bothering me more and more that the SEC feels the necessity to publically declare, when there seem to be $100's of MILLIONs _DAILY_ of FTD's "ain't nobody doing nothing wrong, move along now"

"Please note that fails-to-deliver can occur for a number of reasons on both long and short sales. Therefore, fails-to-deliver are not necessarily the result of short selling, and are not evidence of abusive short selling or “naked” short selling"

https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA

5/21/2019 acquired

price

shares

175,000

(pre split)x5

23,737,050​

vested

$31.17​

pre split

pre split

5,274,901​

total shares

left to be

2,637,455​

not vested

$6.24​

post split

post split

26,374,505​

22,862,050

acquired

26,374,505​

total

shares

So Far

5/21/2019

875,000

A

$6.24

year 2019

year 2019

acquired

3.8%​

1

11/8/2021

2,154,572

A

$6.24

$13,444,529​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,539,780,533​

2

11/15/2021

2,107,672

A

$6.24

$13,151,873​

acquired

9.2%​

$2,100,062,917​

3

11/16/2021

2,113,761

A

$6.24

$13,189,869​

acquired

9.2%​

$2,202,607,644​

4

11/23/2021

2,152,681

A

$6.24

$13,432,729​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,418,532,970​

5

12/2/2021

2,133,441

A

$6.24

$13,312,672​

acquired

9.3%​

$2,315,153,710​

6

12/9/2021

2,165,241

A

$6.24

$13,511,104​

acquired

9.5%​

$2,232,742,545​

7

12/13/2021

2,134,440

A

$6.24

$13,318,906​

acquired

9.3%​

$2,071,364,861​

8

12/16/2021

2,151,940

$6.24

$13,428,106​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,058,793,611​

9

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

estimated

$13,337,383​

not yet

estimated

$2,137,401,143​

estimated

10

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

estimated

$13,337,383​

not yet

estimated

$2,137,401,143​

estimated

11

TBD

1,473,500

$6.24

estimated

$9,194,640​

not yet

estimated

$1,473,500,000​

estimated

78.7%​

$23,687,341,076​

appx tax value

23,737,050

total

acquired

$142,659,194

Cost

$12,554,290,770​

appx 53% tax owed

0

Left to go

Avg $

shares owned

1​

11/8/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,101,093,923.72​

dispersed

$1,178.79​

11/8/2021

170,492,985

11/9/2021

3,088,047​

D

$3,353,496,896.10​

dispersed

$1,085.96​

11/10/2021

500,000​

D

$527,271,411.03​

dispersed

$1,054.54​

11/11/2021

639,737​

D

$687,297,093.55​

dispersed

$1,074.34​

total shares owned

11/12/2021

1,200,000​

D

$1,235,607,328.52​

dispersed

$1,029.67​

11/12/2021

166,285,682

2​

11/15/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$930,718,759.75​

dispersed

$996.39​

11/15/2021

166,285,682

3​

11/16/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$973,353,173.16​

dispersed

$1,042.03​

11/16/2021

166,285,682

4​

11/23/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,049,449,444.77​

dispersed

$1,123.50​

11/23/2021

168,638,933

5​

12/2/2021​

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,013,650,831.84​

dispersed

$1,085.17​

12/2/2021

169,857,523

6​

12/9/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$963,211,354.69​

dispersed

$1,031.18​

12/9/2021

171,056,873

shares gained

7​

12/13/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$906,487,544.38​

dispersed

$970.45​

12/13/2021

172,288,023

so far

12/16/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$884,134,015.49​

dispersed

$956.72​

12/16/2021

173,488,372

2,995,387​

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

total so far

12,900,512​

D

shares

Sold

$13,625,771,777.01​

$1,056.22​

23,737,050​

vested

2,637,455​

not vested

26,374,505​

total

 

[S3XY]

For those of us that can pry their eyes away from the TSLA ticker, The Electric Viking does a good job describing the changes to the Cybertruck from prototype to potential production model. IMHO the latest version looks better than the prototype. Elon has stated there will still be changes and fine tuning of the design, however the Cybertruck is becoming more refined. Understanding how well this pick-up truck will decimate the current ICE line-up of pick-up trucks is fundamental. Note these 22 points are observations from The Electirc Viking based on his interpreation of drone flyover footage readily available on the internet and need to be verified.

Changes include:
1. Larger side windows.
2. Slightly more rounded edges.
3. Different rims.
4. Front lighter up higher.
5. Additional day time running lights below front "lighter".
6. Side mirrors sized for a typical pickup truck.
7. Higher roof line with larger greenhouse (window sizes).
8. Black running boards.
9. More realistic rear bumper
10. Slightly shorter bed (6' from 6-6"? Not sure. If shorter, may be deal breaker for some).
(I'm thinking it may have potential to have the rear seats removed or folded down with the pass-thru to allow for cartage of larger items within the bed, as an extension of the bed).
11. Front windshield is curved (most likely for aerodynamics strength, think arches)
12. Monoarm windshield wiper (regen wiper blade? generate energy during high speeds?)
13. The back seats are clearly open to the bed.
This is huge, If the vault and passenger cabin are open to each other, this puts this vehicle in an entire new class of vehicle, combination of pickup truck, van, and SUV, potential for 3rd row seating, longer carrying bed (jost not both at the same time).
14. The front end looks slightly different.
15. Different tires (more practical).
16. The top front lightbar up higher.
17. The rear bed gate is less angled or nearly vertical.
18. The inside of the bed is molded plastic? or painted?
19. Slightly more rounded edges overall.
20. Three small amber lights at centre of front (May be required for trucks >80" wide.
21. Appears to be slightly smaller and a little bit shorter. (Mostly reduced from the front, so may not impact size of bed. To be verified.
22. Latest prototype appears to have optional solar roof which slightly overhangs the bed (vault).

Not sure if this is a change or not but it appears that the front and rear SS door panels are the same so only one door type to bend for all four doors. But they do have different windows and likely other internal differences.

 

[Joe F]

If we dip down to the 800 levels, it’s time to toss a coin to your Witcher. Or three.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

if what you say above ends up happening…

elon sells ~2% of float (17m/815m)
~65% of avg daily volume (17/26)
stock down ~32% over that period (850/1250)

makes sense, right?

now, obv this coincides with nasdaq taking a beating. so it’s crazy to attribute the full decline to him selling.
many established, but high flyers down ~15% at this point, tesla closer to ~25%

on the one hand it’s a nice discount for LT’ers.
- maybe eradicates a lot of swing traders.
- maybe spooked some long funds to sell as well.
- it seems clear shorts are making out like bandits.
who does elon hate the most?

the question is, will he do it this way again the next time he has a tranche of options expiring?
don’t forget, it’s a huge amount to unload for 1 executive. but something tells me he’ll find a better way next time around.

He has to find a better way next time around, have you seen that 2017 compensation package we all voted for? If he does the same thing in 2030 he's going to crash the entire stock market.

 

[Curt Renz]

Looks like Elon sold today.

This is unsurprising, considering the huge shoves downward during the first 90 minutes of trading. It fits the pattern that likely includes hedge funds front-running him.

 

[Ogre]

He has to find a better way next time around, have you seen that 2017 compensation package we all voted for? If he does the same thing in 2030 he's going to crash the entire stock market.

It is conceivable that Tesla would be a $4 Trillion dollar company by then. To think one man selling shares might cause a trillion dollar market swing…. That’s kind of crazy.

It’s a nice reminder that market cap isn’t a reflection of a companies value, it’s a reflection of current SP and nothing more. Lots of things affect SP, fundmantal value is harder to nudge.

 

[winfield100]

And cringed at the thought of 3 months ago.

10/21/2021

Buy

Buy on 10/21/2021

TSLA

TESLA INC

40

$852.74

-$34,109.60

lucked into trade at 8:05am EST

 

[Hock1]

Elon was definately both acquiring, and selling shares today
He acquired 2,151,940 shares and sold the magical 934,091 shares, has acquired 79% and has gained almost 3 million more shares
has another about 5.7 million to acquire and sell around 2.5 million of those
(the next 12 tranches between now and 2028 will be 4-5 times as disruptive

addendum:
It has been also bothering me more and more that the SEC feels the necessity to publically declare, when there seem to be $100's of MILLIONs _DAILY_ of FTD's "ain't nobody doing nothing wrong, move along now"

"Please note that fails-to-deliver can occur for a number of reasons on both long and short sales. Therefore, fails-to-deliver are not necessarily the result of short selling, and are not evidence of abusive short selling or “naked” short selling"

https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA

5/21/2019 acquired

price

shares

175,000

(pre split)x5

23,737,050​

vested

$31.17​

pre split

pre split

5,274,901​

total shares

left to be

2,637,455​

not vested

$6.24​

post split

post split

26,374,505​

22,862,050

acquired

26,374,505​

total

shares

So Far

5/21/2019

875,000

A

$6.24

year 2019

year 2019

acquired

3.8%​

1

11/8/2021

2,154,572

A

$6.24

$13,444,529​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,539,780,533​

2

11/15/2021

2,107,672

A

$6.24

$13,151,873​

acquired

9.2%​

$2,100,062,917​

3

11/16/2021

2,113,761

A

$6.24

$13,189,869​

acquired

9.2%​

$2,202,607,644​

4

11/23/2021

2,152,681

A

$6.24

$13,432,729​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,418,532,970​

5

12/2/2021

2,133,441

A

$6.24

$13,312,672​

acquired

9.3%​

$2,315,153,710​

6

12/9/2021

2,165,241

A

$6.24

$13,511,104​

acquired

9.5%​

$2,232,742,545​

7

12/13/2021

2,134,440

A

$6.24

$13,318,906​

acquired

9.3%​

$2,071,364,861​

8

12/16/2021

2,151,940

$6.24

$13,428,106​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,058,793,611​

9

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

estimated

$13,337,383​

not yet

estimated

$2,137,401,143​

estimated

10

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

estimated

$13,337,383​

not yet

estimated

$2,137,401,143​

estimated

11

TBD

1,473,500

$6.24

estimated

$9,194,640​

not yet

estimated

$1,473,500,000​

estimated

78.7%​

$23,687,341,076​

appx tax value

23,737,050

total

acquired

$142,659,194

Cost

$12,554,290,770​

appx 53% tax owed

0

Left to go

Avg $

shares owned

1​

11/8/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,101,093,923.72​

dispersed

$1,178.79​

11/8/2021

170,492,985

11/9/2021

3,088,047​

D

$3,353,496,896.10​

dispersed

$1,085.96​

11/10/2021

500,000​

D

$527,271,411.03​

dispersed

$1,054.54​

11/11/2021

639,737​

D

$687,297,093.55​

dispersed

$1,074.34​

total shares owned

11/12/2021

1,200,000​

D

$1,235,607,328.52​

dispersed

$1,029.67​

11/12/2021

166,285,682

2​

11/15/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$930,718,759.75​

dispersed

$996.39​

11/15/2021

166,285,682

3​

11/16/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$973,353,173.16​

dispersed

$1,042.03​

11/16/2021

166,285,682

4​

11/23/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,049,449,444.77​

dispersed

$1,123.50​

11/23/2021

168,638,933

5​

12/2/2021​

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,013,650,831.84​

dispersed

$1,085.17​

12/2/2021

169,857,523

6​

12/9/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$963,211,354.69​

dispersed

$1,031.18​

12/9/2021

171,056,873

shares gained

7​

12/13/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$906,487,544.38​

dispersed

$970.45​

12/13/2021

172,288,023

so far

12/16/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$884,134,015.49​

dispersed

$956.72​

12/16/2021

173,488,372

2,995,387​

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

total so far

12,900,512​

D

shares

Sold

$13,625,771,777.01​

$1,056.22​

23,737,050​

vested

2,637,455​

not vested

26,374,505​

total

"Please note that fails-to-deliver can occur for a number of reasons on both long and short sales. Therefore, fails-to-deliver are not necessarily the result of short selling, and are not evidence of abusive short selling or “naked” short selling"

https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA
"not necessarily" but, almost always, are IMO.

 

[winfield100]

He has to find a better way next time around, have you seen that 2017 compensation package we all voted for? If he does the same thing in 2030 he's going to crash the entire stock market.

@UnknownSoldier
You want me to post a hypothetical spreadsheet of those 12 tranches totaling 101 Million shares?
I can work one up, or look back somewhere in last 20 pages and it there.....

SEC FORM 4

It was march 21,2018, Tesla was worth only $59 Billion, not $1 Trillion, 'the =>hypothetical<= sheet assumes a 10% stock increase between acquisitin of each tranch, but $87 Billion in taxes is a really big number, as is Elon being worth over $600 Billion as well, if the number realize

		101,320,210​
					FIXED			possible
	Date	now to 2028			COST			stock price	Taxed Value
1	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,000​	$8,443,350,833​
2	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,100​	$9,287,685,917​
3	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,210​	$10,216,454,508​
4	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,331​	$11,238,099,959​
5	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,464​	$12,361,909,955​
6	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,611​	$13,598,100,951​
7	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,772​	$14,957,911,046​
8	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,949​	$16,453,702,150​
9	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$2,144​	$18,099,072,365​
10	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$2,358​	$19,908,979,602​
11	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$2,594​	$21,899,877,562​
12	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$2,853​	$24,089,865,318​
		101,320,210		total	$7,092,819,981				$180,555,010,166	appx tax value
				cost					$86,666,404,880​	appx 48% tax owed
	date	0.520				to be		price	$93,759,224,861	needed
1	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$4,390,542,433​	dispersed		TBD
2	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$4,829,596,677​	dispersed		TBD	POTENTIAL
3	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$5,312,556,344​	dispersed		TBD	number
4	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$5,843,811,979​	dispersed		TBD	OF Elon's shares
5	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$6,428,193,177​	dispersed		TBD	222,122,073
6	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$7,071,012,494​	dispersed		TBD
7	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$7,778,113,744​	dispersed		TBD
8	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$8,555,925,118​	dispersed		TBD
9	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$9,411,517,630​	dispersed		TBD
10	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$10,352,669,393​	dispersed		TBD
11	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$11,387,936,332​	dispersed		TBD
12	TBD	4,390,542​	D		$12,526,729,965​	dispersed		TBD
		Sell to pay tax
		52,686,509​			$93,888,605,286​
		excess left over		-$129,380,426​				POTENTIAL VALUE
		48,633,701​							OF Elon's shares
									$633,740,196,701​
									by 2028

 

[UnknownSoldier]

@UnknownSoldier
You want me to post a hypothetical spreadsheet of those 12 tranches totaling 101 Million shares?
I can work one up, or look back somewhere in last 20 pages and it there.....

I don't think I can count that high...

 

[woodisgood]

This is unsurprising, considering the huge shoves downward during the first 90 minutes of trading. It fits the pattern that likely includes hedge funds front-running him.

Those huge shoves downward were nearly identical for many other stocks in green energy sector - I was watching and comparing in real-time that first hour. That’s why I thought he wasn’t selling today. In fact Tesla’s chart looks so identical to some of those others today I’m surprised today was a selling day. Obviously suggests that his selling that many shares truly can get lost in the noise on days like this…I didn’t think that was possible. Happy to be wrong though!