Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

My logical Ant mind can see no other way than this.
When FSD is level 5 No one with it will have car insurance. All the liability transfers to tesla. The Human Driver will only "need" insurance if FSD fails. What? So? Drivers/owners will get a quote based on how much they have to or decide to not use or must use the "manual mode."

So car insurance becomes a negligible cost. And this makes FSD so damn valuable. And Tesla will NOT sell a version of it. They will bake insuring their liability into the subscription. And thus the subscription should more logically be done on mileage and not time.

It will be cheaper to use fsd than to manually drive when insurance becomes baked in to the subscription. You might pay XX cents a mile for insurance, or use FSD for a fraction of that. Either way you will be paying Tesla. Cha CHING

The new Tesla rule to limit using a deposit to secure FSD pricing for some future products (?) may indicate many ordered Cybertruck with FSD to lock the price. Then we learned the first variant Cybertruck was to be a 4 motor setup, perhaps to pump up FSD revenue near-term. In other words, they gave away FSD at $10K and trying to limit the sales before making unavailable entirely for purchase (only leases or the Tesla Network).

I have the CyberTruck Dual and Tri on order, both with FSD, and did both until I know which was to be first release. Now the quad is first? I think they snubbed me on setting up my FSD fleet with these 2 moves, and may indicate no further FSD sales to be announced maybe Q1. It might be another year before the tri-motor variant is produced... if it does at all.

 

[lafrisbee]

The new Tesla rule to limit using a deposit to secure FSD pricing for some future products (?) may indicate many ordered Cybertruck with FSD to lock the price. Then we learned the first variant Cybertruck was to be a 4 motor setup, perhaps to pump up FSD revenue near-term. In other words, they gave away FSD at $10K and trying to limit the sales before making unavailable entirely for purchase (only leases or the Tesla Network).

I have the CyberTruck Dual and Tri on order, both with FSD, and did both until I know which was to be first release. Now the quad is first? I think they snubbed me on setting up my FSD fleet with these 2 moves, and may indicate no further FSD sales to be announced maybe Q1. It might be another year before the tri-motor variant is produced... if it does at all.

yeah, I understand your thought flow, but that's just one scenario. Tesla wanted Cyber(nota)truck reservers to "lock-in" FSD. I remember them promoting the software, trying to get more reservers to take FSD by stating the FSD price could be locked in if done then. Which probably gets them legally on the hook to deliver FSD at that price to "us."
Creating a 4-motor cyber(nota)truck? I think Tesla will honor the old FSD price in order to get 3-motor reservers to upgrade.

 

[StealthP3D]

... having a dedicated pr department to combat the FUD - all produced nothing good. Because the interests are different - if he paid the articles, like everybody else does, then the coverage would be positive - but also ineffective/just another useless GM style fluff piece.

And in fact by going his way, ignoring the media, the media attacks have become less and less effective, and lately in fact some of the Media realizes that good stories about Elon are good for them too - it differentiates them from the crowd in a good way - hence the Time etc person of the year.

This is what the crowd that constantly wants Tesla to have a PR department and to buy advertising to "take charge of their public image" don't understand. People are not dumb, especially the people that will be your most valuable customers. They can see through the thinly veiled propaganda. The human mind is constantly categorizing everything it processes on a subconscious level and it's very effective at it as a result of natural selection. People who were best at making sense of numerous subtle clues subconsciously were most likely to survive. The people who survived were the ones who could figure out who to trust, who were your friends, who was dangerous and who was not. And it's not always obvious because people try to deceive for their own benefit, so this is a task best left to the subconscious.

If Tesla paid the media for advertising, then their coverage of Tesla would look much like their coverage of legacy auto - fluff pieces. It would make people subconsciously categorize Tesla with the rest. It would devalue the brand. Even if people's conscious minds were aware of important differences (more efficient, better software, Supercharger network, technological lead, etc.), they would still subconsciously lump Tesla with all the others that have the same general message. The reason it would devalue the brand is because the subconscious mind has a powerful effect on purchase decisions. People are willing to pay a lot more for something that pulls them to it, they are willing to stretch their budget to buy something that their subconscious mind tells them is somehow different from the rest, it can make it feel like the "right" choice. They may not be able to explain it to their spouse so they will justify it logical reasons. It's how humans work.

It's actually good for the brand when people do illogical attacks on Elon and Tesla. It sets Tesla and Elon apart from the rest. Being seen as being different from the rest would be a bad thing if the rest of the industry evoked feelings of trust, motherly love, joy, or were highly inspirational but, alas, there are no traditional auto companies out there that Tesla would want to be associated with on a subconscious level. Almost no one cares about Jim Farley or Mary Barra. Very few people could tell you who was the CEO of Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, Nissan, et al. People have subconscious associations of these brands based upon their poor dealership experiences. Even though most people try to repress those negative feelings, they are still there in the subconscious. And people largely lump automakers together in the same basket. Tesla stands apart. This is good and advertising would take them one step closer to being thrown in with the rest. That devalues the brand. The fact that Tesla does not have fluff advertising sends a powerful message to the subconscious. and it attracts the best customers. Not every customer is created equal, and this is very important in the insurance industry.

Attacks by politicians are no different. People don't like or respect politicians and attacks from them are bad for them and good for Tesla. Why would Tesla want to be associated with that kind of fake rage?

I see people worry about the 10% of the market that say they would never buy a Tesla. My BIL is one of them. These people don't matter. Because you will never have 100% of the market anyway. Tesla currently has less than 2% of the market. If attacks on Elon damaged the brand, do you really think every other automaker out there would be scrambling to come out with cars that have cleaner interior aesthetics, large center screens and constantly crowing about how much money they are spending on going all electric? It's the other car makers that are trying to emulate Tesla, not the other way around. The worst thing Tesla could do is to try to be more like the others. Elon is smart, that's why he's our leader and has built the company that will soon be the most valuable company in the world. Everyone makes mistakes but Elon's mistakes are not what most people think they are.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Here is a drone flyover by Tobias Lindh of yesterday, December 17th. Looks like construction work is progressing. Could construction work still be on the critical path timeline (as opposed to the final permit) to getting this plant open?

"The second floor of the lobby got outer walls (4:20) and construction of the final parking area continued (0:20) at Tesla's Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg. The area for the southern road and loading bays is getting prepared (6:20), more roads have been paved with asphalt (8:30, 10:30, 18:10, 32:20), new street lights are installed (10:40, 14:25, 30:20). Roof material for the waste water treatment plant arrived (9:10) and two chimneys have been installed at the central utility building (9:25). Pipes are getting installed in the pipe racks (15:20) and a tank has been installed in the central utility building (15:20). Four covered Model Y are parked at the new northern parking area (12:21) and trash parts from casting and stamping can be seen in containers (19:55, 29:45). Concrete is getting poured on the third floor of the cell production building (21:00), the cell formation section is growing (23:00) and more roof panels are getting installed (27:20)."

GF Berlin and BF Austin need to open as the catalyst to get TSLA to break out from its current funk.

So here's a wild card theory.

Tesla was planning on using the 2170 for MIB Y's to start out with. Keep in mind, they originally thought they were going to start production back in Q3. Then delayed to Q4. Now production in Q1. The battery facility building at Giga Berlin is about I'd say 2, maybe 3 months away from completion. Maybe they just changed their minds and said "Screw it, we're just going to wait another quarter and have all made in Berlin Model Y's use the 4680 platform instead of starting with 2170 and then have to switch later". We're seeing lots of evidence of battery production at Austin getting closer (that video from Austin yesterday clearly showed cell production lines installed). Maybe between Kato and early production of batteries at Austin, they'll have enough to supply limited production of both Berlin and Austin for 4680 Model Y's in Q1. And then in Q2, Berlin can supply it's own 4680 batteries.

It's hard to make heads and tails of what going on there. On one hand you have German officials saying Tesla hasn't submitted certain documents and it seems like Tesla isn't really in a rush to supply those documents. On the other hand, you have Elon going on Twitter and complaining about how slow the process is. So.........

They could also just be very content to just start 2170 MIB Y production in Jan and that's why they feel no need to get German officials the necessary documents before the end of Dec. Remember, it's much better for them earnings wise, to start production in Jan rather than Dec.

Also I very much do not believe both Berlin and Austin need to open to break Tesla out. Q4 P/D numbers above 280k + announcement of Giga Texas starting production on Jan 3rd will do it........I still think 300k P/D is a mathematical possibility, but Giga China Nov production numbers dampened my optimism for 300k. I'm at about 290k right now.

 

[torifile]

I think there would have to be some really significant disclosures for this, both pre purchase and PRIOR to doing anything to a third party. But, I think Tesla is more interested in yes, getting into this business and owning it at least for themselves, for their customers vehicles. that is probably a nice little revenue stream.

Probably, yes. If they were to offer FSD for free as an opt-in, I could see people going for it. We do it with gmail and a whole slew of other services. Yes, driving habits are more personal than marketing emails but people are willing to give up all sorts of privacy for free goodies.

Would I do it? No way. But I’m not most people. It was just a thought.

 

[Paracelsus]

This is an awesome fix of Sen Warrens Facebook ad:

 

[SmokyPeat]

Farzad in Austin managed to score Dave Lee as the first guest on his youtube podcast. Congrats to him- always happy to see more great quality Tesla podcasts!

 

[S3XY]

No, no, no. Please don't switch to Tesla Insurance!

If you don't stay with Progressive, who will be paying for the 69,420 Progressive commercials I'll watch in 2022?!?

You must not watch much TV.

 

[advocate8]

Comparing Ellison to anyone is not a fair comparison. He once called me from first class on a commercial flight to complain about something no human would ever care about. I could tell you stories about him that you would not believe, not a good standard. Elon's issue is simple tact at times not about being on the wrong side of the argument. Ellison is on the wrong side of many things and has zero tact or respect for people no matter who they are. Take a ride on one of his jets sometime you will know what I mean. I'll leave it at that.

Bingo. Or talk the pro sailors on his payroll about where they were and weren’t allowed to go and do on the motor yacht between races.

 

[JSML]

My logical Ant mind can see no other way than this.
When FSD is level 5 No one with it will have car insurance. All the liability transfers to tesla. The Human Driver will only "need" insurance if FSD fails. What? So? Drivers/owners will get a quote based on how much they have to or decide to not use or must use the "manual mode."

So car insurance becomes a negligible cost. And this makes FSD so damn valuable. And Tesla will NOT sell a version of it. They will bake insuring their liability into the subscription. And thus the subscription should more logically be done on mileage and not time.

It will be cheaper to use fsd than to manually drive when insurance becomes baked in to the subscription. You might pay XX cents a mile for insurance, or use FSD for a fraction of that. Either way you will be paying Tesla. Cha CHING

I somewhat disagree. When the cars get to level 5, as the owner of the level 5 machine, you will still need insurance. FSD does not automatically come with insurance. Tesla will sell you the FSD, but you will be buying FSD and signing a waiver of liabilities. If Tesla owns the car and just rent it to you by the mile, then they'll need to insure it.

Many Tesla owners already bought FSD or reserved it. If Tesla start to include the price of insurance in FSD, then they would be faced with asking their customers to return the FSD if they don't want to buy the insurance. It works better as 2 separate products. My suspicion is that annual insurance fees for an L5 machine can be really high to the tune of $ 4,000 and up per year. That is another great revenue stream for Tesla.

 

[Unpilot]

Here is your weekend comedy article.

Due To Tesla's Limited Earnings Potential, Exit It With Elon Musk (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla (TSLA), as an investment, has peaked. Click here to know why we expect the stock to underperform.

seekingalpha.com

 

[Words of HABIT]

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472183136780005382

NIO Day 2021 Held in Suzhou, Smart Electric Sedan ET5 Unveiled | NIO

NIO Day 2021 Held in Suzhou, Smart Electric Sedan ET5 Unveiled

www.nio.com

Lets face it, without the need for a front air grill and for best aerodynamics all cars of each class will tend to look alike, like the original Model 3 for compact sedan class. The interior is strikingly similar to the Model 3 with its centre large console, lack of buttons and hidden air vents, once laughed at, now copied. The ET5 is a great looking car inside and out. The ultra long range 150kWh battery has 620 miles (1,000 miles) of range, so good on NIO. Base 75kWh battery (341 mi. range) starts at $51,447 ($40,470 if leasing the batttery). This will be a good seller. Tesla and the Chinese manufacturers will dominate autos going forward.

"The year of 2021 marks NIO's first step into the global market. After entering Norway, NIO will introduce its products and holistic service system to Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark in 2022. By 2025, NIO will establish its presence in over 25 countries and regions worldwide."

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Here is your weekend comedy article.

Due To Tesla's Limited Earnings Potential, Exit It With Elon Musk (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla (TSLA), as an investment, has peaked. Click here to know why we expect the stock to underperform.

seekingalpha.com

Now that was a funny read.

" Tesla's share of EV sales is expected to drop dramatically as sales in the market increase. The company is expecting to sell 1 million vehicles/year by 2030, which is almost a decade from now. We see these numbers as optimistic, the rate of decline is expected to slow down after 2024; however, there's no reason why as competition increases it won't keep going down.

However, another takeaway here is that carmakers consistently have margins of less than 10%. Tesla's average automotive revenue per vehicle is ~$50 thousand. That implies 2030 profits of <$5 billion. That's minimal for a company currently valued at roughly $1 trillion. More so, it doesn't count the company's massive capital expenditures."

So they think Tesla will peak at 1 million sales annually and do less net income than they'll do this year........Gee I wonder if they're just a tiny bit worried about Q4 P/D and thus Q4 earnings since they're short. When articles are this desperate, we know we're on the cusp of a breakout

Their thesis risk should read as -

Thesis Risk....I'm stupid​

 

[Singuy]

NIO Day 2021 Held in Suzhou, Smart Electric Sedan ET5 Unveiled | NIO

NIO Day 2021 Held in Suzhou, Smart Electric Sedan ET5 Unveiled

www.nio.com

Lets face it, without the need for a front air grill and for best aerodynamics all cars of each class will tend to look alike, like the original Model 3 for compact sedan class. The interior is strikingly similar to the Model 3 with its centre large console, lack of buttons and hidden air vents, once laughed at, now copied. The ET5 is a great looking car inside and out. The ultra long range 150kWh battery has 620 miles (1,000 miles) of range, so good on NIO. Base 75kWh battery (341 mi. range) starts at $51,447 ($40,470 if leasing the batttery). This will be a good seller. Tesla and the Chinese manufacturers will dominate autos going forward.

"The year of 2021 marks NIO's first step into the global market. After entering Norway, NIO will introduce its products and holistic service system to Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark in 2022. By 2025, NIO will establish its presence in over 25 countries and regions worldwide."

View attachment 745668

Shouldn't Nio first dominate home market, work out the issues with battery swaps, and then migrate to other markets? But what do I know..Tesla kind of had to dominate home market first before expanding

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The new Tesla rule to limit using a deposit to secure FSD pricing for some future products (?) may indicate many ordered Cybertruck with FSD to lock the price. Then we learned the first variant Cybertruck was to be a 4 motor setup, perhaps to pump up FSD revenue near-term. In other words, they gave away FSD at $10K and trying to limit the sales before making unavailable entirely for purchase (only leases or the Tesla Network).

I have the CyberTruck Dual and Tri on order, both with FSD, and did both until I know which was to be first release. Now the quad is first? I think they snubbed me on setting up my FSD fleet with these 2 moves, and may indicate no further FSD sales to be announced maybe Q1. It might be another year before the tri-motor variant is produced... if it does at all.

Do you think that FSD (city) will be in wide release before Cybertruck is out? I didn’t get that impression. We also have a trimotor with FSD on order. But if FSD (City) isn’t released by 2023 (doubtful) would they put the price up on it ? Really no idea.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Shouldn't Nio first dominate home market, work out the issues with battery swaps, and then migrate to other markets? But what do I know..Tesla kind of had to dominate home market first before expanding

They also need to figure out their profitability situation. Margins and profitability dropped quarter over quarter despite producing more in Q3 than in Q2 in the cheapest manufacturing place in the world + only addressing the most profitable sector of the auto industry (SUV's). Their operating income is still negative 990 million (worse than a year ago) despite revenue more than doubling.

Their margins and profitability is significantly behind Tesla's considering the volumes they're doing right now and where they're manufacturing.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Shouldn't Nio first dominate home market, work out the issues with battery swaps, and then migrate to other markets? But what do I know..Tesla kind of had to dominate home market first before expanding

As of December 1, NIO has sold 80,940 vehicles in 2021 in China. Their battery swap is an option, not an issue, however a poor option IMHO. Tesla only surpassed 100,000 sales per year in 2017 and was selling in Europe and Canada well before then. NIO selling their vehicles in other Countries to take advantage of local incentive programs, and to gain recognition outside China would spur further demand inside China. Does NIO need to expand outside of China, the World's biggest auto market by a wide margin? No. Will they? Yes.
Disclaimer, I do not own NIO, and this deserves another thread here on TMC, so I'll pause the NIO talk.

 

[SPadival]

I find the larger story behind Elon's comment directed at (Lack of) Joy Reid pretty noteworthy for anyone that has followed the attacks on Elon on Twitter and in the media over the last decade. At 1:30 into the linked NYP article containing a video clip of the Joy Reid's 'show' where she hosted Sen Warren on MSNBC Joy Reid accuses Elon of:

“misappropriating black vernacular for misogynistic purposes”

Oh dear. Someone should inform Elon about the time when time travelling Russian hackers inserted homophobic rants into Joy Ann Reid’s archived blog posts

Joy Ann Reid claims homophobic blog posts were ‘fabricated,’ but Internet Archive denies manipulation

Joy Ann Reid’s defense against allegations of homophobia has run into trouble with the Internet Archive.

www.nydailynews.com

@DaveT?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do they actually have to deliver a car? Can't they just make pieces and assemble in Tilberg? And what defines a car? Maybe a thing without wheels is not a car, just saying...

No final assembly going forward at Tilburg since this decision announced on Mar 18, 2021

Tesla's Tilburg Model S/Model X Final Assembly Plant To Be Shut Down?

According to Dutch media reports, Tesla is expected to "very shortly" stop assembling the Model S and Model X in Tilburg, Netherlands.

insideevs.com

 

[Buckminster]

I just finished a book written by a writer in France explaining why there are almost no 1B+ valuation companies in Europe compared to USA and China. Too many regulations prevents start up from surviving when they are burning cash like crazy. If that was Tesla first factory, Germany would have made them go bankrupt. I have seen the live world action of what the author was explaining in his book. I’m not even surprised now. It is sad to see innovation killed by regulations on the old continent.

	Titre Innover comme Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos et Steve Jobs / Alain Dupas, Jean-Christophe Messina, Cyril de Sousa Cardoso.

Mods - can you please delete this post. It contravenes EU directive 20.6.7.45.9 Exhibit 3, Amendment 5 parts 1 & 2. If they see this, the whole TMC site could get pulled down and nobody wants that.