Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Elon is purposely paying taxes in an irrational manner to make a point. And it's still what.....4% of his accumulated wealth over the last 2 years?

I hope he's just working as usual and not dwelling on this.

Warren's tested positive for covid. Super excited to hear folks applauding.

 

[tivoboy]

That won’t happen until the order book is cleared and back under 2-3 months of wait time. It’s sitting at nearly a year out at this point. ZERO reason to lower prices.

I’ll take that bet. Lest setup a mechanism to track it

 

[Skipdd]

Elon is purposely paying taxes in an irrational manner to make a point. And it's still what.....4% of his accumulated wealth over the last 2 years?

I hope he's just working as usual and not dwelling on this.

Warren's tested positive for covid. Super excited to hear folks applauding.

Even if I vehemently disagree with someone’s position, I don’t wish them ill.
If the SP trends down as some have suggested I will buy more at a certain point. I seriously doubt he’s distracted.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

11 billion in taxes, wow.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472755252495478788

Elon was definately both acquiring, and selling shares today
He acquired 2,151,940 shares and sold the magical 934,091 shares, has acquired 79% and has gained almost 3 million more shares
has another about 5.7 million to acquire and sell around 2.5 million of those
(the next 12 tranches between now and 2028 will be 4-5 times as disruptive

addendum:
It has been also bothering me more and more that the SEC feels the necessity to publically declare, when there seem to be $100's of MILLIONs _DAILY_ of FTD's "ain't nobody doing nothing wrong, move along now"

"Please note that fails-to-deliver can occur for a number of reasons on both long and short sales. Therefore, fails-to-deliver are not necessarily the result of short selling, and are not evidence of abusive short selling or “naked” short selling"

https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA

5/21/2019 acquired

price

shares

175,000

(pre split)x5

23,737,050​

vested

$31.17​

pre split

pre split

5,274,901​

total shares

left to be

2,637,455​

not vested

$6.24​

post split

post split

26,374,505​

22,862,050

acquired

26,374,505​

total

shares

So Far

5/21/2019

875,000

A

$6.24

year 2019

year 2019

acquired

3.8%​

1

11/8/2021

2,154,572

A

$6.24

$13,444,529​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,539,780,533​

2

11/15/2021

2,107,672

A

$6.24

$13,151,873​

acquired

9.2%​

$2,100,062,917​

3

11/16/2021

2,113,761

A

$6.24

$13,189,869​

acquired

9.2%​

$2,202,607,644​

4

11/23/2021

2,152,681

A

$6.24

$13,432,729​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,418,532,970​

5

12/2/2021

2,133,441

A

$6.24

$13,312,672​

acquired

9.3%​

$2,315,153,710​

6

12/9/2021

2,165,241

A

$6.24

$13,511,104​

acquired

9.5%​

$2,232,742,545​

7

12/13/2021

2,134,440

A

$6.24

$13,318,906​

acquired

9.3%​

$2,071,364,861​

8

12/16/2021

2,151,940

$6.24

$13,428,106​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,058,793,611​

9

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

estimated

$13,337,383​

not yet

estimated

$2,137,401,143​

estimated

10

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

estimated

$13,337,383​

not yet

estimated

$2,137,401,143​

estimated

11

TBD

1,473,500

$6.24

estimated

$9,194,640​

not yet

estimated

$1,473,500,000​

estimated

78.7%​

$23,687,341,076​

appx tax value

23,737,050

total

acquired

$142,659,194

Cost

$12,554,290,770​

appx 53% tax owed

0

Left to go

Avg $

shares owned

1​

11/8/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,101,093,923.72​

dispersed

$1,178.79​

11/8/2021

170,492,985

11/9/2021

3,088,047​

D

$3,353,496,896.10​

dispersed

$1,085.96​

11/10/2021

500,000​

D

$527,271,411.03​

dispersed

$1,054.54​

11/11/2021

639,737​

D

$687,297,093.55​

dispersed

$1,074.34​

total shares owned

11/12/2021

1,200,000​

D

$1,235,607,328.52​

dispersed

$1,029.67​

11/12/2021

166,285,682

2​

11/15/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$930,718,759.75​

dispersed

$996.39​

11/15/2021

166,285,682

3​

11/16/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$973,353,173.16​

dispersed

$1,042.03​

11/16/2021

166,285,682

4​

11/23/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,049,449,444.77​

dispersed

$1,123.50​

11/23/2021

168,638,933

5​

12/2/2021​

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,013,650,831.84​

dispersed

$1,085.17​

12/2/2021

169,857,523

6​

12/9/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$963,211,354.69​

dispersed

$1,031.18​

12/9/2021

171,056,873

shares gained

7​

12/13/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$906,487,544.38​

dispersed

$970.45​

12/13/2021

172,288,023

so far

12/16/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$884,134,015.49​

dispersed

$956.72​

12/16/2021

173,488,372

2,995,387​

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD

D

10b-5

estimated

appx $1 Billion

not yet

$1,000.00​

TBD

TBD

total so far

12,900,512​

D

shares

Sold

$13,625,771,777.01​

$1,056.22​

23,737,050​

vested

2,637,455​

not vested

26,374,505​

total

Looks like we should see more selling from Elon through the end of the year for him to hit $11B in taxes. This would be contrary to some people's desires like Gary Black who are hoping he stops selling and waits for next year.

I'm guessing we will see two sales a week, but with his sales coming to an end hopefully we will see some front running start to kick in and Tesla shares find some support to close out the year

Edit:
Based on Winfield numbers elons sold $13.6B. Originally I was multiplying this by 53% to estimate the taxes, but that's incorrect. The 10b-5 sales are going towards the taxes on the exercised options. The 13.6 billion includes additional shares Elon sold. Back out half the dollar amount and you land at around $11B. Seems to indicate Elon may be done selling.

Edit 2: discretionary sales should be at 20% long term cap gains, so Elon has more sales to go. So I'm back to thinking more sales to come this year.

 

[hacer]

Have read in a couple places now that Bolt production delayed till at least end Feb. I have mixed feelings on this.

February of what year?

 

[Radish11]

Think the market as a whole will tank tomorrow on BBB failing, or do you think that’s already mostly priced in

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Hmmm, if we assume Elon’s “over 11 billion in taxes” implies less than 12 billion, that could mean he’s done selling for the year. His $17 Billion in options at 53% tax rate would be around a $9.4 billion tax bill. Plus another ~$2.5 billion in capital gains on normal stock sale (assuming 12.9 million shares, basis around $60, and federal capital gains of 20%). If he exercised & sold any more, his tax bill would be well above $12 billion. Someone check my math, but I think he’s done.

 

[GOVA]

Covid, sars, omicron, delta, palpatine, phobos, deimos, ....

You get the picture.

It is not gong away. Who is desitned to die, will die. The show must go on. Stop pity your current situation. There will be new viruses in the future. Thre will be new wars, not for oil but for water. This is the future. No need to agree, disagree, like, helpuf, subscibe. 20-200 years from this post the judgement will occur. Peace, greenpaece, go Tesla, Stop.

I got MY, ordered 2nd MY. Will get CT and Plad soon. Got booster yesterday. If it works, great, if it does not work, fine. My arm is supposed to stop huring on Monday.

Yes, go watch Midnight Express, it is a great Alan Parkers' movie. There was no internet back in 77, still a good pice.

Just imagine Tesla's cars in 10 years. Plad +++

 

[The Accountant]

Hmmm, if we assume Elon’s “over 11 billion in taxes” implies less than 12 billion, that could mean he’s done selling for the year. His $17 Billion in options at 53% tax rate would be around a $9.4 billion tax bill. Plus another ~$2.5 billion in capital gains on normal stock sale (assuming 12.9 million shares, basis around $60, and federal capital gains of 20%). If he exercised & sold any more, his tax bill would be well above $12 billion. Someone check my math, but I think he’s done.

I think you're right, here is Dave Lee's math. He computed $13.3B in taxes if Elon continued with the additional share exercise/sales over the next couple of weeks.
So an $11B number may suggest he is done:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472435384063823874

 

[MikeC]

Hmmm, if we assume Elon’s “over 11 billion in taxes” implies less than 12 billion, that could mean he’s done selling for the year. His $17 Billion in options at 53% tax rate would be around a $9.4 billion tax bill. Plus another ~$2.5 billion in capital gains on normal stock sale (assuming 12.9 million shares, basis around $60, and federal capital gains of 20%). If he exercised & sold any more, his tax bill would be well above $12 billion. Someone check my math, but I think he’s done.

Kinda makes sense that he’d wait until he was done before tweeting out his total tax bill. Wonder if he cancelled any remaining sales after BBB failed.

He also confirmed a November tweet from @DaveT about his tax liability today - maybe just finished a meeting with his accountants.

 

[AudubonB]

However, "implies" doesn't guarantee. Just as if I state "I have between $9 and $99 billion in TSLA shares", then I am implying the bucketload of shares I hold is a large bucket, indeed. But it also could be that I have $9.17 of same.

What that statement suggests to me is Mr Musk stating "Were I to stop today, then I would be paying some $11 bn in taxes. But by the time I'm done, it could be $xxx more, too."

 

[CLK350]

Not sure it has been posted already, but FT's Person of the Year write up is just as newsworthy as that of Time (finally, something really positive in the mainstream media)

See also the video included https://next-media-api.ft.com/renditions/16239957246660/1280x720.mp4

https://www.ft.com/content/a7f75d25-d710-4aaa-9f57-49e24d67744d

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

@Tes La Ferrari
If this is allowed,
If you want to give them an honest nudge and would rent a Tesla in the future
you can sign up for email alerts to indicate potential future interest and get on mailing list

Tesla Car Rental | Hertz Rent a Car

www.hertz.com

Thanks for providing that link @winfield100 .

I rented from them on a recent trip a few weeks ago. They didn’t have Teslas but I made a point of letting them know that even though I couldn’t rent an ev from them at this time, I was renting from them heavily because they were making such a large commitment to getting Teslas.

I made a point of mentioning it to their reservations folks, as well as the branch manager at the location I picked up from.

 

[2daMoon]

Has anyone else noticed or considered the large difference in the number of truck loading docks on the factories in Shanghai vs Berlin vs Texas?

I did some very rough counts based on recent videos and came up with approximately:

Shanghai 120 (may have missed some in-between the buildings)
Berlin 139
Texas 47

There are a lot of "plugged up" loading docks in Texas, but this factory still has many less docks than the other two. Seems they are going to be doing things very differently there.

They are putting in a Stargate at GigaTexas for Elon's alien tech supply chains.

 

[generalenthu]

There's the possibility that Elon will exercise more shares but will choose to not sell for tax withholding and instead use the cash he raised earlier.

 

[Discoducky]

Sure let’s ignore everything that’s going on in the auto industry with ASP, a wait time of 6-10 months, general inflation, and specifically mark up on competitors EV’s .

I’ll take the contrary, there will be zero price cuts on the 3/Y in 2022

Same

 

[smorgasbord]

I think you're right, here is Dave Lee's math. He computed $13.3B in taxes if Elon continued with the additional share exercise/sales over the next couple of weeks.
So an $11B number may suggest he is done:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472435384063823874

1) The federal tax rate for long term capital gains is 20% + 3.8% NIIT. That's why Dave Lee is showing 23.8%
2) Don't forget to include CA state income tax. Elon will be at the 12.3% tax rate for all but the first ½ mil.

Elon's got 3 more tranches to sell. Dave Lee has posted some dates for those tranches. My dates are close to his, but we both think they're in 2021.

 

[thesmokingman]

I just read the craziest news story.

A woman gave birth in her Tesla. It handled most of the driving.​

So apparently the woman went into labor suddenly and they were forced to head to the hospital. Then they hit traffic and her convulsions shortened and it just started right there in the front passenger seat. Her husband put the car into AP and by the time they hit the hospital the baby came out. Insane!

Keating enabled Autopilot, a mode in which the car matches the speed of other vehicles on the road and brakes when needed. The feature is meant to reduce the work of the driver, according to Tesla, which is exactly what Keating needed.

He placed his left hand on the steering wheel and offered his right for Yiran to squeeze in pain as Rafa sat in the back seat, asking whether his mom was okay.

Yiran’s focus was on managing her pain and occasionally glancing at the car’s map to see how far they were in their journey.

The couple focused on their breathing, pulling from Yiran’s background as a yoga instructor and from breath-centric classes Keating has taken over the years.

By the time the family reached the hospital, the baby was already out.

Luckily, a pediatrician was walking out of the building to help them and to call other medical staffers to assist. Doctors cut the umbilical cord in the front seat before covering Yiran and wheeling her and the baby into the building to make sure they were doing well, Yiran said.

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472768294205722630

 

[Todd Burch]

Gary’s calculation: $10.8B
Musk’s words: “over 11 billion”.

Huh? How does Gary deduce he’s done? His own calculation implies he’s not quite done?