Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[deffu]

I’m waiting for a new Model X in May. Canada has proposed a new Luxury Tax g starting in 2022 on vehicles that cost over $100K, our X codts $154K. The tax is the lesser of 10% off the value in excess of $100K or 10% off the total cost. I was surveyed about the tax and suggested the threshold should be raised for green vehicles but to date I haven’t heard anything like that being proposed.

So today I got an interesting call from Tesla. They wanted to inform me of the Luxury Tax. They then told me that they imported a number of Model S Plaids to Canada and invited me to switch my order to take delivery prior to the year end and avoid the Luxury Tax. While I would love an S Plaid, I’m specifically looking for the towing capacity of the X (well, until the Cybertruck arrives to take over towing duties). I thought it was an interesting proposal. Nice of Tesla to do this to help a few fellow Canucks avoid some Tax and get their vehicles early. I hope it’s not a reflection of waning demand for the S Plaid. For those curious, the call was from Vancouver, not Calgary or Edmonton (I’m closest to Edmonton).

I also received a text message to the same effect, attached:

Great info! It’s more a quarter end push. I visited my local show room in Bay Area. All display models except one and all test drive vehicles r gone. But they do have few performance y/ plaid in local inventory that ppl can take immediate delivery.

 

[deffu]

I’m waiting for a new Model X in May. Canada has proposed a new Luxury Tax g starting in 2022 on vehicles that cost over $100K, our X codts $154K. The tax is the lesser of 10% off the value in excess of $100K or 10% off the total cost. I was surveyed about the tax and suggested the threshold should be raised for green vehicles but to date I haven’t heard anything like that being proposed.

So today I got an interesting call from Tesla. They wanted to inform me of the Luxury Tax. They then told me that they imported a number of Model S Plaids to Canada and invited me to switch my order to take delivery prior to the year end and avoid the Luxury Tax. While I would love an S Plaid, I’m specifically looking for the towing capacity of the X (well, until the Cybertruck arrives to take over towing duties). I thought it was an interesting proposal. Nice of Tesla to do this to help a few fellow Canucks avoid some Tax and get their vehicles early. I hope it’s not a reflection of waning demand for the S Plaid. For those curious, the call was from Vancouver, not Calgary or Edmonton (I’m closest to Edmonton).

I also received a text message to the same effect, attached:

If u r like me just mounting bike/ski rack on the tow hitch, there is after market hitch for model s, which can tow ~1500lb according to test videos

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1474279829826465793

 

[Maarten]

For one stall you would need 100 kW / 10 * 2 = 50 kW of solar panels. This will cost Tesla $25k per stall, not including batteries and require 4,300 square feet of panels. Twenty stalls would require nearly the area of a Walmart Supercenter. Perhaps the panels could be covered with bullet proof glass but I'd still be concerned about vandalism at these remote locations.

There is an analogy with the way we supply drinking (showering) water in The Netherlands in a lot of places.
To install pumps that are able to provide the water in peak hours in the morning and evening, huge pumps would be necessary to pump up the water needed from deep aquifers.
So, another solution has been made: large buffers of drinking water at surface-level that relatively 'trickle' fill up in the hours when little water is needed.
In the peak hours these buffers are emptied and will slowly fill up again.
A proven cost-effective solution.

So, Tesla could fill Megapacks in the night at relative low cost and discharge in the busy hours.
Tesla is the company that can do this perfectly with its autobidder software and will be able to calculate easily when this will be cost-effective.

 

[wooter]

There is an analogy with the way we supply drinking (showering) water in The Netherlands in a lot of places.
To install pumps that are able to provide the water in peak hours in the morning and evening, huge pumps would be necessary to pump up the water needed from deep aquifers.
So, another solution has been made: large buffers of drinking water at surface-level that relatively 'trickle' fill up in the hours when little water is needed.
In the peak hours these buffers are emptied and will slowly fill up again.
A proven cost-effective solution.

So, Tesla could fill Megapacks in the night at relative low cost and discharge in the busy hours.
Tesla is the company that can do this perfectly with its autobidder software and will be able to calculate easily when this will be cost-effective.

It's a principle Renault tried to push for fast chargers: re-use Renault Zoe battery packs for local storage, which slowly charge themselves on lower capacity power connections, but discharge quickly for someone needing a fast charge.

Except their plan failed on the availability of expended Zoe batteries, since battery longevity turned out to be longer than 5 years and there's a shortage of cheap batteries to supply this setup.

 

[kanweg]

So, Tesla could fill Megapacks in the night at relative low cost and discharge in the busy hours.
Tesla is the company that can do this perfectly with its autobidder software and will be able to calculate easily when this will be cost-effective.

Nio basically has the same advantage with their exchangeable batteries. People pay rent for the batteries irrespective of whether they drive or not. Steady flow of income. Nice business model.

Perceived worries over battery life are taken away. Life of the car is decoupled from the life of the battery. If better batteries are developed in the future, your range may increase (or you hire those at a premium when you go on holiday). Disadvantage for Neo: they are not paid for the cost of the battery at the time the car is sold.

 

[mongo]

Elon didn't sell today, but at this point no one cares anymore. Someone on Wall Street blinked, now everyone is fully in front running mode.

At this point, absence of a Form 4 does not indicate anything. Had Elon sold today, he would have 2 business days to file the Form 4. Deadline is submittal to SEC by Tuesday midnight (east coast time) due to no trading today.

This Form must be filed before the end of the second business day following the day on which a transaction resulting in a change in beneficial ownership has been executed (see Rule 16a-1(a)(2) and Instruction 4 regarding the meaning of “beneficial owner,” and Rule 16a-3(g) regarding determination of the date of execution for specified transactions). This Form and any amendment is deemed filed with the Commission or the Exchange on the date it is received by the Commission or the Exchange, respectively. See, however, Rule 16a-3(h) regarding delivery to a third party business that guarantees delivery of the filing no later than the specified due date.

Business day refers to a 24 hour period determined with reference to the principal market for the securities to be distributed, and that includes a complete trading session for that market.

 

[winfield100]

At this point, absence of a Form 4 does not indicate anything. Had Elon sold today, he would have 2 business days to file the Form 4. Deadline is submittal to SEC by Tuesday midnight (east coast time) due to no trading today.

@mongo
agreed
If you look at the 4 form 4’s filed, 2 on Tuesday the 21st and 2 on Wednesday the 22nd,
ALL 4 forms say/imply sales on 12/21, Tuesday, nothing about sales the 22nd as of yet.

SEC.gov | EDGAR Full Text Search

The total shares owned at the ends of the 2 sets of forms is the same also, 174,706,221, so those 4 forms filed on 2 days are only for the 21st, not the 22nd.

They were filed on 2 separate days, _plus_ it’s a holiday week and i suspect the Feds are short staffed so things may be a bit slower posting plus Friday, today, is a Federal holiday

It is entirely possible the forms for possibly the 22nd and/or the 23rd have been filed, if anything was done,
just delayed by the holidays by
(as the mind goes way off on a tangent)
“Special Circumstances”, ya know, (smile) “just read the instructions” because “of course we still love you”, we may be having “a shortfall of gravitas” but “Sleeper Service” is accelerating at 233,500x the speed of light past the competition.
Perhaps Elon etal are variations of instantiations of the Excession? with the clues in plain sight.

 

[torifile]

Rather than pay cash for my MYP, I decided to invest my money in TSLA. Average cost is right at $1000. I’m already up double the amount of interest I’m going to pay for my 2.49% loan on my car. Nice Christmas gift here.

I know gains aren’t really actual gains until I sell but I feel ok holding for a long while. Thanks for all the good guidance in here.

Happy holidays, all.

 

[mongo]

@mongo
agreed
If you look at the 4 form 4’s filed, 2 on Tuesday the 21st and 2 on Wednesday the 22nd,
ALL 4 forms say/imply sales on 12/21, Tuesday, nothing about sales the 22nd as of yet.

The total shares owned at the ends of the 2 sets of forms is the same also, 174,706,221, so those 4 forms filed on 2 days are only for the 21st, not the 22nd.

They were filed on 2 separate days, _plus_ it’s a holiday week and i suspect the Feds are short staffed so things may be a bit slower posting plus Friday, today, is a Federal holiday

It is entirely possible the forms for possibly the 22nd and/or the 23rd have been filed, if anything was done,
just delayed by the holidays by
(as the mind goes way off on a tangent)
“Special Circumstances”, ya know, (smile) “just read the instructions” because “of course we still love you”, we may be having “a shortfall of gravitas” but “Sleeper Service” is accelerating at 233,500x the speed of light past the competition.
Perhaps Elon etal are variations of instantiations of the Excession? with the clues in plain sight.

I see you are a member of the culture club (or perhaps just a chameleon )
The filed on 21st Form 4s were for the 21st trades, and the ones on 22nd for the 22nd.
Given the undersized amount remaining, the trustee may have sold in morning and gone home early knowing they had a long weekend plus 2 more days to submit the form.

 

[Radish11]

Ah guys.....we HAVE to fill that gap from 930-970. Did you not get the memo??!?

Speaking of gap filling, I'm just sitting on my hands as we fill the reverse gap back up to $1200. Not worth buying anything, not worth selling anything. I'll make my 1% a week in the other thread, but nothing fun.

Gaps can go both ways hedgies! Shoulda thought of that before you shoved down so close to 4Q earnings. Maybe we just squeeze our way up to 1200 in the next week on low volume? That's the only place I can imagine anyone selling.

Yep $1200 is my planned exit point

 

[Radish11]

Ah guys.....we HAVE to fill that gap from 930-970. Did you not get the memo??!?

Speaking of gap filling, I'm just sitting on my hands as we fill the reverse gap back up to $1200. Not worth buying anything, not worth selling anything. I'll make my 1% a week in the other thread, but nothing fun.

Gaps can go both ways hedgies! Shoulda thought of that before you shoved down so close to 4Q earnings. Maybe we just squeeze our way up to 1200 in the next week on low volume? That's the only place I can imagine anyone selling.

Yep $1200 is my planned exit point

Tesla signs one-year, $422M contract with Hyundai Glovis to ship Giga Shanghai exports

Tesla has signed a one-year, $422 million contract with South Korean logistics company Hyundai Glovis to transport vehicles from the automaker’s Gigafactory in China to other regions. Tesla has been using Gigafactory Shanghai, located on the southern shores of the Shanghai coast, as an export...

www.teslarati.com

$422,000,000 for a year?
So how many cars at what price?

that doesn’t seem so bad that’s like $600 car if they deliver 700,000 next year

 

[redan]

Correction for November China production numbers. This is more like it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1474249523228667906

 

[winfield100]

I see you are a member of the culture club (or perhaps just a chameleon )
The filed on 21st Form 4s were for the 21st trades, and the ones on 22nd for the 22nd.
Given the undersized amount remaining, the trustee may have sold in morning and gone home early knowing they had a long weekend plus 2 more days to submit the form.

@mongo,
(not quite old enough to be a futurian, but met a lot of them, reading and mentally shaped by EssEff for 6 decades)
(i really appreciate your ideas, thoughts and inputs to my poor knowledge, i learn new things all the time)

this is a snippet of the form filed on the 22nd,
(either the matrix seems to be glitching, or my computer cache is playing tricks on me, it seems the order in which i click on a form the dates flip between 12/21 and 12/22 for the ?same? form)
but
you are correct,
i am incorrect

��

Code​	V​	Amount​	(A) or (D)​	Price​
Title of Security (Instr. 3)​	2. Transaction Date (Month/Day/Year)​	2A. Deemed Execution Date, if any (Month/Day/Year)​	3. Transaction Code (Instr. 8)​	4. Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed Of (D) (Instr. 3, 4 and 5)​	5. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s) (Instr. 3 and 4)​	6. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 4)​	7. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 4)​
Common Stock​	12/22/2021​	​	S(1)​	​	17,202(2)​	D​	$992.688(3)​	2,902,269​	D​	​
Common Stock​	12/22/2021​	​	S(1)​	​	18,767(2)​	D​	$993.643(4)​	2,883,502​	D​

 

[mongo]

@mongo,
are you certain the ones for the 22nd were for the 22nd
it says transactions were filed on the 22nd for transactions on the 21st
could that gross an error get past?
this is a snippet of the form filed on the 22nd, yet it seems to be a continuation of reporting for the 21st.

Title of Security (Instr. 3)​	2. Transaction Date (Month/Day/Year)​	2A. Deemed Execution Date, if any (Month/Day/Year)​	3. Transaction Code (Instr. 8)​	4. Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed Of (D) (Instr. 3, 4 and 5)​	5. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s) (Instr. 3 and 4)​	6. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 4)​	7. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 4)​
Code​	V​	Amount​	(A) or (D)​	Price​
Common Stock​	12/22/2021​	​	S(1)​	​	17,202(2)​	D​	$992.688(3)​	2,902,269​	D​	​
Common Stock​	12/22/2021​	​	S(1)​	​	18,767(2)​	D​	$993.643(4)​	2,883,502​	D​

Yep, made my post and checked it twice
Your chart shows 12/22 also in column 2. The column 5 share total spans the 21st to 22nd due to not having a transfer to the Trust.

The two 12/22 Form 4s:
SEC FORM 4
SEC FORM 4

 

[winfield100]

Yep, made my post and checked it twice
Your chart shows 12/22 also in column 2. The column 5 share total spans the 21st to 22nd due to not having a transfer to the Trust.

The two 12/22 Form 4s:
SEC FORM 4
SEC FORM 4

View attachment 747845


View attachment 747844

abject apologies
both my ipad and laptop have been “glitchy” for perhaps the last year, the cache acting weird so i have to try several times to get pages sometimes and once other times. (i run malware checks daily)
when i looked at the 4 forms, 4 said the 21st, now 2 say the 21st and 2 say the 22nd.
perhaps the Matrix is gaslighting me or just a wonky bunch of computers, sigh.
you are correct, i’m incorrect
i shall assuage my sorrow with large slices of key lime pie and chocolate
merry christmas happy holidays etc

 

[Stretch2727]

Yep $1200 is my planned exit point

that doesn’t seem so bad that’s like $600 car if they deliver 700,000 next year

I doubt they will need to deliver 700K cars on ships next year. This is the approximate total capacity of Shanghai.

For $422M I hope it is a multi year contract the price seems high for 1 year of cars.

 

[brantse]

As much as I hate to admit it, that strong guy that was here a month or two ago was right. We touched $900 a share. I wonder if he bought back in? For many of the rest of us, we never bothered leaving our chairs, so it didn't make much of a difference.

 

[nativewolf]

Welp, priced out a MY this morning for my wife's xmas gift. Nov 22 delivery. So we are 11 months out on a basic MY (white, no fancy wheels, no performance, etc). If I go for performance it is Feb 22. Feb is too soon for the checkbook. Nov 22 it is but holy cow, that's a long wait on a basic MY.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I’m waiting for a new Model X in May. Canada has proposed a new Luxury Tax g starting in 2022 on vehicles that cost over $100K, our X codts $154K. The tax is the lesser of 10% off the value in excess of $100K or 10% off the total cost. I was surveyed about the tax and suggested the threshold should be raised for green vehicles but to date I haven’t heard anything like that being proposed.

So today I got an interesting call from Tesla. They wanted to inform me of the Luxury Tax. They then told me that they imported a number of Model S Plaids to Canada and invited me to switch my order to take delivery prior to the year end and avoid the Luxury Tax. While I would love an S Plaid, I’m specifically looking for the towing capacity of the X (well, until the Cybertruck arrives to take over towing duties). I thought it was an interesting proposal. Nice of Tesla to do this to help a few fellow Canucks avoid some Tax and get their vehicles early. I hope it’s not a reflection of waning demand for the S Plaid. For those curious, the call was from Vancouver, not Calgary or Edmonton (I’m closest to Edmonton).

I also received a text message to the same effect, attached:

There are 5 plaids in stock in Vancouver. They have been for a month.

We also have an X on order as well as a Y. Looks like the Y will arrive first and we’ll probably cancel the X. The Y is a better fit for us anyway, and much cheaper.