That hasn't been my experience. I felt the absolute lowest risk time to buy Tesla was in the first half of 2019 when it was under $250 ($50 split adjusted). The market was telling us it was high risk but anyone following the company fundamentals closely could see it was not.
My investment style is to buy and hold companies that have such a substantial hold on their particular market that it's nearly a sure thing. To get the best returns you need to be early but the real gravy is the long, multi-year growth phase after the "discovery phase". It's the gravy because it lasts so long and is so secure (assuming good management and no unexpected disruption). For example, I sold all my MSFT in 1998 even though they were in the gravy phase because I had identified Qualcomm who had a digital cellular technology that was certain to be the basis for all digital cellular going forward. These situations are not all that easy to find but, once identified, are very low risk in the longer term. Then, QCOM appreciated 36x and I sold it all based upon my belief that it was valued so far higher than could be justified going forward and the entire tech market was super frothy. Had I held, I still would have been up many fold, even when it bottomed a couple years later during the tech bust. Since then, I re-entered MSFT 15 years later and it's already 5x or 6x (plus paid some decent dividends). It's not nearly as good as the early heady days in the late 1980's and early 1990's but it's still a keeper for now.
TSLA was too risky for my investment style in 2012-2017, which is predicated on getting the gravy and minimizing risks and losses. But in 2018 it was starting to look more attractive. I dabbled a little bit, sold for a small profit (not because it had appreciated but because I felt like better entry points were coming up and I didn't like the risk/reward ratio) and started buying in earnest in 2019 in the $200's. The only reason I didn't go all in at $250 (even though I thought it was safe to do so in the long run) was because I thought I could get a better price so I made periodic buys as it dropped all the way to $184 where I doubled my position. I "knew" this was a very low risk buy so I went big.
My point is, by investing for the long-term and always being ready to dump if your long-term thesis weakens too much, you can avoid much of the risk. Tesla is in the gravy phase and I have no plans to dump unless it runs up well above where it is today. Even if Tesla went to zero tomorrow, I would still be far ahead of where I would be if I had never invested a penny in TSLA (due to options profits and also a small amount of portfolio balancing earlier in the year). The secret is being bold when the getting is good and riding it as long as possible. Also, understanding the power of compounding and making it work for you.
I'm not saying I've never invested in dogs, but the secret is to realize it in time to dump them before the losses are huge and also saving big positions only for your highest conviction picks. To minimize risks, get in early and realize that many good companies will not be identifiable until after their best growth is behind them. You can't participate in all of the ones that turn out great (and you don't need to). That's why you have to go big when the getting is good. And when you catch the whopper, let it ride (assuming the company has quality management). Early profit taking is a big no-no!
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