Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

No, only if sp breaks our last ATH resistant of 1240. It has nothing to do with the time period. Possible a strong Q1 P&D report break us out of 1240 and hit 1400 before Q1 report.

Were I to guess, I’d say we see a continued quiet rise this week while some folks are expected to be distracted. In part this rise will be to undo the running down that accompanied Elon’s sales.

And, there could be a more firm pop in early January as some portfolio managers reposition (or re-reposition as their cases may be) for the new year. News of Austin entering production will be helpful.

Though Germany will likely continue to stall—I think we can call it out as stalling at this point—which won’t be helpful and inflation will continue to generate headlines (perhaps it is time for Postmodern Monetary Theory which may not be that different from pre-modern monetary theory ). Neither of these things is a big factor to me near-term, but they give yet more venues to introduce chop in the ever so smooth sailing TSLA waters.

What does this have to do with technical analysis? Zilch. But then, that is what TA says to me—so we’re even.

edit: This is to say, I suspect we‘ll be well into or beyond the 1200’s in January and may see the $1400’s before the results for Q1 ‘22 come in (or did you mean seeing the Q4 ‘21 numbers in Q1 ‘22?). I also suspect SP will exhibit novel behavior in H1 ‘22 as compared to past years.

 

[Sancho]

Ah yes, "diworsification". The art of "spreading the blame around". Buffet says you only need 2 or 3 stocks. I say that owning TSLA is like owning 12 different startups in a cross-section of industries. That's my investment thesis.

I recall, years before investing in TSLA, a meeting with one of my Broker's "investment advisors". He said to put $50K in ETFs...

Lol, that might have "beaten inflation (barely). But not every year.

Cheers!

I agree that owning TSLA is like owning 12 companies in a cross-section of key industries, but "startups" don't do these companies justice. My investment thesis is that all these companies have at their disposal an extraordinarily unique set of resources: financial, managerial, technological, engineering capacity, etc. All led by a team of the most innovative and hard driving leaders on the planet. Each one in a very large industry ripe for disruption and high growth. And all of that, all of that, is basically a free option as long as the current stock price remains low enough to be justified solely on the near-future earnings of just selling cars and trucks at high margins and high growth.

 

[StealthP3D]

Really, I heard a lot of "break out gaps that will never be filled" narrative while everyone was high at 1200

Did you hear that in this thread? I could have missed it, but what I heard was pushback that it was a sure thing the gap would be filled. Of course, if someone said that the gap absolutely couldn't or wouldn't be filled, I would have summarily dismissed the notion just as certainly as if they said it certainly would be filled because there is no certainty in this game, only odds that can be imperfectly estimated.

In other words, the best anyone could do is to estimate the odds that a gap would or would not be filled. And, of course, even after the fact, there is no proof that those odds were accurate or not because every situation is unique and there is no mechanism with which to run a simulation of the exact situation multiple times to see how it turns out.

In any case, my observations, compiled over a 40-year period, inform me that the people most likely to become fabulously wealthy are those who buy and hold great companies for many years, not those who trade in and out of them for many years. There are exceptions to every rule, but I think the odds strongly favor the former, not the latter.

 

[Jack6591]

Hmmmm…

Beijing to remove all limits on foreign automakers owning operations in China - UPI.com

Ownership restrictions on foreign automakers will be lifted in 2022 under new economic "opening up" measures, the Chinese government said on Monday.

www.upi.com

 

[StealthP3D]

If nobody sells, how do market makers make money? Where does it come from?

If no one sells, then no one buys. Which means zero trading volume.

Market makers get nothing, they require transactions to make money. I must have misunderstood your question!

 

[Singuy]

Did you hear that in this thread? I could have missed it, but what I heard was pushback that it was a sure thing the gap would be filled. Of course, if someone said that the gap absolutely couldn't or wouldn't be filled, I would have summarily dismissed the notion just as certainly as if they said it certainly would be filled because there is no certainty in this game, only odds that can be imperfectly estimated.

In other words, the best anyone could do is to estimate the odds that a gap would or would not be filled. And, of course, even after the fact, there is no proof that those odds were accurate or not because every situation is unique and there is no mechanism with which to run a simulation of the exact situation multiple times to see how it turns out.

In any case, my observations, compiled over a 40-year period, inform me that the people most likely to become fabulously wealthy are those who buy and hold great companies for many years, not those who trade in and out of them for many years. There are exceptions to every rule, but I think the odds strongly favor the former, not the latter.

Yeah push back from Strongguy everyone was trying to get banned.

 

[torifile]

Rather than pay cash for my MYP, I decided to invest my money in TSLA. Average cost is right at $1000. I’m already up double the amount of interest I’m going to pay for my 2.49% loan on my car. Nice Christmas gift here.

I know gains aren’t really actual gains until I sell but I feel ok holding for a long while. Thanks for all the good guidance in here.

Happy holidays, all.

Now triple. It did get to quadruple earlier in the day. I suspect one day soon, it’ll cover the cost of my MYP.

 

[MD70]

A remainder that the relationship with China is complex:

Elon Musk criticised after China space complaint to UN

The SpaceX boss is attacked on Chinese social media after the complaint was made public.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[PeterJA]

From Investor's Business Daily (a rich source of Tesla FUD in the past):

Tesla stock rallied 2.5% Monday, adding to Thursday's 5.8% advance. Shares briefly topped a downward-sloping trendline buy point around 1,115 before closing beneath it. Getting above Monday's intraday high could serve as a trigger. Meanwhile, a double bottom with a 1,202.05 buy point continues to take shape.​

So does this mean don't buy until $1202 (and five cents)? Buy the stock only when it is $300 above the bottom? Dyslexic readers of Yahoo News wanna know, since they apparently mix up the buy-low-sell-high thing.

 

[torifile]

From Investor's Business Daily (a rich source of Tesla FUD in the past):

Tesla stock rallied 2.5% Monday, adding to Thursday's 5.8% advance. Shares briefly topped a downward-sloping trendline buy point around 1,115 before closing beneath it. Getting above Monday's intraday high could serve as a trigger. Meanwhile, a double bottom with a 1,202.05 buy point continues to take shape.​

So does this mean don't buy until $1202 (and five cents)? Buy the stock only when it is $300 above the bottom? Dyslexic readers of Yahoo News wanna know, since they apparently mix up the buy-low-sell-high thing.

I think this is written from a technical analysis point of view. They don’t move unless a pattern is confirmed. The pattern the article says is forming is a double-bottom confirmed by hitting that 1202.05 price.

As I said earlier, you could give a TA trader a chart with no ticker symbol and they’d tell exactly how they’d trade it. For them, it’s all about patterns.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Doing my bit for Q4. Picking up my new Model Y today (white, LR, FSD). Two days ago I was suddenly informed I was switched from Merch-April delivery to having a VIN assigned. Reservation from October, 2019. Put off several times due to pandemic non-driving.

Rather weird delivery experience today at the Fremont factory compared to previous (2014 & 2017). Multiple texts and phone calls and e-mail, seemingly made by people who had no idea what their colleagues were doing or saying. Delivery is on, it's off. The VIN has been reassigned. It's back! All four of my delivery experiences have been ends of quarters, but none as disorganized as this.

The one thing of relevance to this investing thread is that when I asked why my order was pulled in from March, the Tesla person said that they had built an unexpectedly large number of cars in Fremont recently and pulled in a lot of orders, including mine. I don't know if I believe that, but the VIN is 346xxx so I think it was built this month. Can't find the door jamb sticker to confirm though.

When I got there, there was no way they would let me inside the car until I had paid them by cashier's check or bank transfer. This in contrast to them taking a personal check after a thorough inspection all previous times.

Anyway, I got the car. Now I have to figure out what I'm going to do with an extra Tesla.

 

[Singuy]

 

[30seconds]

Hyundai pushing all their chips in for EVs (closing their ICE development group)

Hyundai Motor closes engine development division - KED Global

Hyundai Motor Group, South Korea’s top automaker, will stop developing new internal combustion engines in order to accelerate its transformation into an

www.kedglobal.com

 

[kanweg]

And another variable for investors to track quarterly (or daily…) deliveries

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475499525561225216

 

[UnknownSoldier]

From Investor's Business Daily (a rich source of Tesla FUD in the past):

Tesla stock rallied 2.5% Monday, adding to Thursday's 5.8% advance. Shares briefly topped a downward-sloping trendline buy point around 1,115 before closing beneath it. Getting above Monday's intraday high could serve as a trigger. Meanwhile, a double bottom with a 1,202.05 buy point continues to take shape.​

So does this mean don't buy until $1202 (and five cents)? Buy the stock only when it is $300 above the bottom? Dyslexic readers of Yahoo News wanna know, since they apparently mix up the buy-low-sell-high thing.

IBD is a TA site. TA is just an analysis tool. TA is useless when there's external catalysts, like a stock split or an Elon selling spree. But on normal days when a ticker symbol is just floating around following macro, it has it's uses for sure.

 

[Boomer19]

No harm for me listening to the guy who has been a clairvoyant on SPY, QQQ, and TSLA.

So far his track record is 100% right from Tesla's run up to 1200

1. Said parabolic move like this will see a gigantic crash -correct
2. Said most likely Tsla will just bull flag after the crash -correct
3. Said after bull flag if it breaks to the down side and close below 1k, it'll fill the hertz gap - correct
4. Said strong support at 900 -correct
5. He called Tsla's down sloping resistance trend line 4 days ago at 1120, and we hit 1116 today and got rejected so -correct

These predictions were in place days before coming to fruition.

You should see the amount of people who gave him crap after he has been calling for this santa clause rally but we saw nothing but red days the last few weeks due to omicron and feds taper. Turns out to be correct again.

well what’s he saying is next up on our journey?

 

[SmokyPeat]

well what’s he saying is next up on our journey?

Pretty sure his crystal ball said $1150 by EOD today.

 

[SO16]

A remainder that the relationship with China is complex:

Elon Musk criticised after China space complaint to UN

The SpaceX boss is attacked on Chinese social media after the complaint was made public.

www.bbc.co.uk

1. How many are truly complaining?

2. How soon they forget. (Of course probably this event was blocked from them by the state.)

A chunk of Chinese satellite almost hit the International Space Station. They dodged it – but the space junk problem is getting worse

A close call for the International Space Station highlights the growing problem of space junk putting satellites at risk.

theconversation.com

 

[Sancho]

Rather weird delivery experience today at the Fremont factory compared to previous (2014 & 2017). Multiple texts and phone calls and e-mail, seemingly made by people who had no idea what their colleagues were doing or saying. Delivery is on, it's off. The VIN has been reassigned. It's back! All four of my delivery experiences have been ends of quarters, but none as disorganized as this.

The one thing of relevance to this investing thread is that when I asked why my order was pulled in from March, the Tesla person said that they had built an unexpectedly large number of cars in Fremont recently and pulled in a lot of orders, including mine. I don't know if I believe that, but the VIN is 346xxx so I think it was built this month. Can't find the door jamb sticker to confirm though.

When I got there, there was no way they would let me inside the car until I had paid them by cashier's check or bank transfer. This in contrast to them taking a personal check after a thorough inspection all previous times.

Anyway, I got the car. Now I have to figure out what I'm going to do with an extra Tesla.

I’m picking up my fourth Tesla today (completing the superfecta of S3XY). In contrast to your experience, I’ve been super impressed by how organized this pre-delivery experience has been compared to the previous ones. In the past, the sense I got was a company flying by the seat of its pants. Now, the email, text and phone notification system seems well oiled.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Rather weird delivery experience today at the Fremont factory compared to previous (2014 & 2017). Multiple texts and phone calls and e-mail, seemingly made by people who had no idea what their colleagues were doing or saying. Delivery is on, it's off. The VIN has been reassigned. It's back! All four of my delivery experiences have been ends of quarters, but none as disorganized as this.

The one thing of relevance to this investing thread is that when I asked why my order was pulled in from March, the Tesla person said that they had built an unexpectedly large number of cars in Fremont recently and pulled in a lot of orders, including mine. I don't know if I believe that, but the VIN is 346xxx so I think it was built this month. Can't find the door jamb sticker to confirm though.

When I got there, there was no way they would let me inside the car until I had paid them by cashier's check or bank transfer. This in contrast to them taking a personal check after a thorough inspection all previous times.

Anyway, I got the car. Now I have to figure out what I'm going to do with an extra Tesla.

I think this time the blame largely falls on the customers. The system and sales people must be under a lot of stress by all the cancellations and deferrals caused by the EV-credit in the BBB-plan, and now the opposite is happening after the BBB-plan got postponed/shelved. Assigning VINs, cancelling VINs, re-assigning VINs: all those customers constantly changing their minds must drive them crazy.